1 Bet today
0 Negative
9 Previews

Very nice to welcome Cheltenham back today
and this track contributes 4 of the 9 previews
today. Far more variety and choice today and
completely different to the last couple of days.

Today's Bet

Cheltenham 4.30

CASPER KING 4/1 - 9/2

Each Way

5/1 Corals
9/2 Boyles Betfred Chandler
9/2 Ladbrokes Hills Independants


A little knowledge can be a dangerous thing
One of two things might happen here
Either I have discovered something about this race
That nobody else knows or very few even consider

Or I don't know things that other people do
About the quality of his opposition
The result may depend on which statement is true
But on the balance of probability he must be a bet





T o d a y s M e s s a g e

9 Previews
Bit of a slow Burner that builds up
These 3 races interested me most

Doncaster 4.20
Cheltenham 4.30
Newbury 4.45

The best bets run in this period
So I am planning a 5pm tea tonight
If I can stomach eating after these races


Doncaster 4.20

£7 Win Bet HIGHER POWER 5/1
£2 Win Bet CAPE COVA 4/1
£1 Win Bet NOT NEVER 8/1

What I don't like here is the staking
I could and nearly did chance this
I nearly went £1 saver Not Never
And £4 Each Way Higher Power
One of those annoying situations
Where you can't do right for doing wrong
So that staking headache just adds to the danger


Cheltenham 4.30

CASPER KING 4/1

Each Way

There feels a general view here
That Casper King may have a problem
He may be meeting classier horses than him
I think there is validity in that argument
Certainly long term others will be better
But I am not so sure they will be today
I have a statistic about Cheltenham hurdle races
That if working out
Blows his rivals to smithereens
The preview depends on this statistic
But I think he has to be an each way bet
Because the statistic can still fail
And we may not lose anything if it does




Newbury 4.45

£4 Each Way THE NEW PHARAOH 10/1

£2 Win Bet MISS TIGER LILY 8/1

This is a far harder race than the 4.30pm
But it is my personal favourite of the 3 options
Mainly because of the price
And there is less pressure on it delivering
My problem with The New Pharaoh
Is I can't be sure he will run to his best
But at the prices I am happy to suggest a bet








Daily Negatives

No Negative Today
Results of Negatives
27 correct bets from 38


Thursday's Summary

We were left with only one preview yesterday
and a split stake bet produced a loser with the
three I liked finishing 2nd 4th and last. I read
Midnight Man was bumped leaving the stalls
and had excuses but I saw a horse that never
figured and drifted badly. John T Chance ran
as I thought he might. Went close and had his
chance. Clenymistra was the surprise package
at a big price second but we were on win only
so we got nothing back albeit a non staked bet.



P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S



N e w b u r y 1.20

100/30 Sea Skimmer, 7/2 Uae King, 5/1 Uptown Funk
7/1 Deep Music, 7/1 International Law, 10/1 See Of Rome
12/1 Rosarno, 16/1 Beach Break, 16/1 Pete So High
20/1 Weloof, 25/1 Simoon, 33/1 Surrey Hope
66/1 Any Questions, 66/1 Light Gunner, 100/1 Log Off.

This is a 2yo maiden over a Mile
About a year ago over a mile at Newbury
We had an unraced winner drawn 15
That horse (Midterm) is a Group horse
Go back to 2006
Unraced horses drawn 10 or higher
Have a miserable 1-115 record
UAE KING is unraced and drawn 15
That would worry me for a well backed favourite
He may overcome it but I am looking elsewhere
SIMOON rejected unraced drawn 12
I don't want PETE SO HIGH either
Don't feel he is drawn well either

Shortlist

UPTOWN FUNK is unraced drawn 11
He fails that 1-115 draw statistic
But only just and could still play a part
And a low drawn non runner helps a lot

SEE OF ROME - Experienced with 2 runs
But has he done enough for a Newbury maiden ?
With a strong newcomer presence I have doubts

SEA SKIMMER- Unraced and worth considering

Selection (Small Stakes)

£4 Each Way SEA SKIMMER 4/1

£2 Saver Bet UPTOWN FUNK 4/1





N e w b u r y 1.50

7/4 Firefright, 7/2 Yalawin, 9/2 Parfait, 8/1 Mostahel
14/1 Black Bolt, 16/1 Bay Watch, 20/1 Koeman
20/1 Mellow, 20/1 Rising, 20/1 Things Happen
25/1 Highland Boy, 33/1 Me Too Nagasaki
33/1 Silver Mist, 50/1 Alemaratalyoum
50/1 Orithia, 66/1 Mr Scaff.

2yo Maiden over 6f and 110 yards
If you look at past winners of this race
They won in the following Racing Post Ratings
80 83 81 88 83 83 79 86
All had ratings between 79 and 88
FIREFRIGHT has just done a 94 rating
That would win every past renewal
It is 12lbs higher than the next best rating
So I find it hard to avoid FIREFRIGHT here

I have no interest in BAY WATCH
I don't see him as a safe debutant to bet
I feel the same about MOSTAHEL drawn 16
Unraced drawn 16 of 16 a bit too radical for me

When you have a horse with a RPR of 94
It makes it harder to go with an unraced horse
I am against HIGHLAND BOY unraced drawn 1
ME TOO NAGASAKI is unraced drawn 2
Since 2011 unraced horses in fields of 10 or more
Have a 0-69 record drawn 1 or 2

PARFAIT ran badly last time
He can be forgiven that on heavy ground
From a high class stable and progressive beforehand

YALAWIN is a well backed favourite
He is unraced and drawn 15 of 16
By far the best backed horse clearly fancied
But FIREFRIGHT does set a decent standard
And I just prefer than extra experience
If FIREFRIGHT reached 5/2 we could go each way

Selection

FIREFRIGHT 2/1

Win Bet




C h e l t e n h a m 2.10

13/8 El Bandit, 9/4 Black Warrior
4/1 Colin´s Sister, 13/2 Templeross
8/1 Pickamix.

This is a 2m 5f Novice Hurdle
Past winners had the following hurdle runs
2 5 8 1 4 5 2 6 5 10 2 19 16
They all had 2 or more hurdle runs
Apart from The New One who is Grade 1 class

I would prefer 2 or more hurdle runs
We have 2 experienced hurdlers this year
We have 3 inexperienced ones

EL BANDIT - 6 hurdle runs
BLACK WARRIOR - 5 hurdle runs

TEMPLEROSS - 1 hurdle run
PICKAMIX - 1 hurdle run
COLIN´S SISTER- 1 hurdle run

Go back 16 renewals of this race
Horses aged 5 with 1 hurdle race
Had a 0-25 record
That's why I am against these horses
TEMPLEROSS - PICKAMIX - COLIN´S SISTER

The gap in experience
Lead me to see this race as a Match
EL BANDIT and BLACK WARRIOR

EL BANDIT won a maiden hurdle for Paul Nichols
That trumps BLACK WARRIOR a handicap winner
BLACK WARRIOR is also sired by Trans Island
Not my favourite sire for hurdles
One who has never bred a hurdle winner at Cheltenham
EL BANDIT has this profile

Maiden Hurdles in October 20f -21f
5 year old males
Winning Maiden Hurdles over 20f-21f last time
Running within 3 months
2 or more hurdle races
There were 8 horses with this profile
They finished W W 3 W 3 W 3 W in a 5-8 record
3 of the 5 winners won at Cheltenham
They were the 2006 2007 2011 winners of this race
EL BANDIT has the best profile

Selection

EL BANDIT 13/8

Win Bet




C h e l t e n h a m 2.45

3/1 Marracudja, 4/1 Aristo Du Plessis
5/1 Presenting Arms, 5/1 Ridestan, 11/2 Neverushacon
7/1 Baron Alco, 14/1 Gambling Girl, 16/1 Pinkie Brown.

This is a 2m Chase
Not a race I can be confident in
I have a few problems I can't resolve

MARRACUDJA - My main worry is the track
Plenty of form on flat tracks
You could not be sure this course would suit

If you look at past winners aged 5
They had all had previous chasing experience
In fact if you look at Chases debutants in this race
None of them won aged 5 or 6
BARON ALCO has this problem
ARISTO DU PLESSIS also has this problem

PRESENTING ARMS is not as safe as I'd like
Not as a 9yo down from 2m 5f
PINKIE BROWN - I don't want a 4yo
GAMBLING GIRL is hard to like

NEVERUSHACON - Not sure given he is ex flat
Could win if others disappoint

RIDESTAN gets a speculative vote
Winning a recent chase isn't a bad profile

Selection

Small Stakes

RIDESTAN 7/1

Each Way





C h e l t e n h a m 3.55

2/1 Tiger Roll, 3/1 Heron Heights, 4/1 Full Cry
5/1 Cottersrock, 8/1 Tempestatefloresco
10/1 Duckweed.

3m Novice Chase

I may have to split stake this
May have to buy the favourite out of the race
TIGER ROLL won the Munster National 12 days ago
Racing Post Chase rating of 159
The best any of his rivals can muster
Is a rating of only 137
TIGER ROLL is 22lbs clear on Chase R.P.Ratings
That earns him the right to be short
He is also a Cheltenham winner

But is a 12 day gap enough
Hard race last time in a big field
A horse who has more than once lost at short prices
And who has never won with a recent run
So I feel I have to respect him but can't rely on him
Hence the split stake bet
The Plan is to break level if he wins
And hope COTTERSROCK can win more

Selection

£5 Win Bet COTTERSROCK 4/1

£5 Win Bet TIGER ROLL 11/10





D o n c a s t e r 4.20

4/1 Ruscombe, 11/2 Cape Cova, 6/1 Higher Power
15/2 Not Never, 8/1 Arthur Mc Bride, 8/1 Champagne Champ
10/1 Major Mac, 11/1 Noble Silk, 14/1 Gabrial The Hero
16/1 Gabrial´s Star, 20/1 Multellie, 20/1 Peterhouse
33/1 The Twisler.

This is a Handicap over 14.5f

If you look at every past renewal since 2000
Horses aged 5 or more have a 0-90 record

If you look at every past renewal since 2006
Horses with 12 or more runs were 0-96

So what we clearly want
Is a horse aged 3-4 who has under 12 runs

This leads to the following shortlist

RUSCOMBE
HIGHER POWER
CAPE COVA
NOT NEVER

RUSCOMBE only has 3 runs
I looked at horses with under 4 runs
None won absent more than 7 weeks
RUSCOMBE has a 98 day absence

Every winner since 2006
Had the following profile
Aged 3-4
Under 12 runs
Coming from 12f or more
Running within 8 weeks
Beaten under 20 lengths last time
Horses with this profile were 9-41
They won the last 9 renewals of this race
3 horses have this profile

NOT NEVER - Is he underraced this season ?
Is stall 13 a problem at all ?
Possibly yes on both counts

CAPE COVA - Solid chance

HIGHER POWER -Leading chance if he stays

Selection

I could choose any of these each way
But decided to split stakes three ways

£7 Win Bet HIGHER POWER 5/1
£2 Win Bet CAPE COVA 4/1
£1 Win Bet NOT NEVER 8/1





C h e l t e n h a m 4.30

7/4 Khezerabad, 4/1 Garo De Juilley, 9/2 Casper King
5/1 Thomas Campbell, 10/1 Ckalco Des Loges, 16/1 Accord
16/1 Bigpipenotobacee, 33/1 Gulshanigans
33/1 Thehossbehind.

This is a 2m maiden hurdle

French Recruits in Top Stables
An area that threatens statistics
These horses are getting better
They are more expensive and better resourced
You can no longer judge these accurately
There are some causing difficulties in this race

If you look at this Cheltenham race since 2000
There have been 6 winners aged 4
They had 3 3 1 5 1 7 previous hurdle races

Those with under 3 career starts were 0-25

Those with No previous hurdle races were 0-33

THOMAS CAMPBELL fails both these angles
GARO DE JUILLEY is a 4yo hurdling debutant
We know these types are 0-33 in this race
But he is a French Recruit
Decent on the Flat and impeccable connections
If he wins he will make my opening point for me
That it gets harder to oppose these types
But my angles suggest we should do that
CKALCO DES LOGES is an unraced 4yo
He fails both the 0-25 and 0-33 statistics above

This is also interesting

Cheltenham Maiden and Novice Hurdles
Any Time of year
Any Class of race
Any distance
Since 2001 there are 187 of these races

Look at 4 year olds
Who have never raced in a hurdle race before
There is a 1-70 record
The only winner in 2009
That was Nicky Hendersons General Miller
That was a small field with only 3 possible winners
The favourite may have gone off too fast as well
That angle covers any distance any time of year
And not just in Maiden Hurdles but Novices too
18 of these started under 6/1
It has to be a worry
And that's why I am against these 4 year olds
Who have never jumped a hurdle under rules

THOMAS CAMPBELL
GARO DE JUILLEY
CKALCO DES LOGES
GULSHANIGANS

Another angle against GARO DE JUILLEY
Look at hurdlers sired by Ungaro
Those who ran over 2 miles are 0-25
All this sire's winning hurdlers
Won over further at least in the UK


BIGPIPENOTOBACEE - Hard to make a case for him
I feel the same about ACCORD as well
I can only shortlist 2 horses

KHEZERABAD
CASPER KING

KHEZERABAD is obviously a smart prospect
Weak in the market
Makes me wonder if he will need the run
He has been beaten in both hurdle starts
I think lack of fitness and conditioning caused this
If you go back to his hurdling debut February 2016
Paddock Watchers described him as " A Chunky type"
Could that mean he is a hard horse to get fit ?
Hard to know but one thing crossed my mind
Will he be trained to peak at Kempton Boxing Day ?
No surprise if Nicky Henderson has a long term plan

Given the issues with KHEZERABAD
I am going with CASPER KING each way

I think the Racing Post are right in saying
"Others have more exciting profiles"
But look at CASPER KING's Racing Post Ratings
He has Hurdle ratings of 119 121 122
Steady. Slowly improving.
Look at Racing Post Ratings of past winners of this
126 137 116 127 113 126 125 120 122 123
If it is a hot renewal he may find one to beat him
But his numbers are similar to a lot of past winners
And he could easily improve a couple of pounds

After all his main 4 rivals in this race
Are all younger horses
One has a long absence
The other 3 have never jumped a hurdle before
CASPER KING has top class connections
Second last time at Chepstow
The horse in 3rd came out and won yesterday
Despite some sexy talent around him
I think he is entitled to go close and maybe win

Selection

CASPER KING 4/1

Each Way




N e w b u r y 4.45

11/4 London Prize, 5/1 The Ducking Stool
11/2 Miss Tiger Lily, 9/1 Medburn Cutler, 9/1 Snowy Dawn
12/1 The New Pharaoh, 14/1 Delagoa Bay
14/1 Northern Meeting, 14/1 Shalimah, 14/1 Wordiness
16/1 Kissy Suzuki, 20/1 Giant Redwood, 25/1 Barizan.

2m Handicap for 0-75 rated horses

Complicated race
LONDON PRIZE - Not confident assessing him
Ran well 7 days ago
But that was his first run in 112 days
There could be a case he could Bounce
Statistically that's a live proposition
There are 2 other potential flaws in his profile
Another is his draw in Stall 1

Newbury races since 2007
12f and more
11 or more runners
Horses drawn 1 have 1-66 record
Since 2009 there was a 0-45 record
LONDON PRIZE may not be well drawn

There is another possible flaw
If I look at all similar 2m handicaps in August
Horses aged 5 or more
Under 8 career starts
Return a 0-31 record
Very lightly raced horses his age
Do not score well or at least haven't done
So I feel LONDON PRIZE has 3 possible flaws
Bouncing. Bad Draw. Unorthodox unsafe profile
At the prices I am opposing him each way

I am against SHALIMAH on stamina grounds
BARIZAN is underraced this season
THE DUCKING STOOL is a 9yo Mare
I don't want her with a 79 day absence
DELAGOA BAY - Not running well enough
SNOWY DAWN doesn't really excite me
MEDBURN CUTLER makes limited appeal
WORDINESS is 8 now and not showing much
May not be his time of year
GIANT REDWOOD hard to commit to on recent form
NORTHERN MEETING - Not 1st choice

Shortlist

KISSY SUZUKI is a filly with a tricky absence
Not quite safe enough but not a negative

MISS TIGER LILY - Enough Positives to shortlist

THE NEW PHARAOH is quite interesting
Beautifully bred horse with a decent profile
He was 4th in this race last year
But when perhaps too inexperienced
He was beaten 13 lengths last time
That was on Kempton's slow sand track
It that was also his first run in 112 days
He was entitled to need that run
His connections have said he is not a sand horse
Said to be talented but quirky
Said to need a decently run race
His Sandown race before that didn't suit him
It turned out to be a sprint finish
I think he has the class to take this
I wouldn't describe him as Bomb proof
I feel this is a winnable race

Selection

£4 Each Way THE NEW PHARAOH 10/1

£2 Win Bet MISS TIGER LILY 8/1




D u n d a l k 7.35

9/2 Goldream, 5/1 Caspian Prince, 6/1 Ardhoomey
6/1 Double Up, 6/1 The Happy Prince, 8/1 Chiclet
8/1 Moviesta, 10/1 Medicean Man, 12/1 Callender
14/1 Master Speaker, 14/1 Seychelloise, 16/1 Fine Blend
16/1 Hay Chewed, 33/1 Go Kart.

Listed race over 5f

I could not bet a 2yo CALLENDER
Not against older sprinters
I am against the 3 year olds as well
ARDHOOMEY has an unacceptable draw
THE HAPPY PRINCE is unsafe down from 7f
MASTER SPEAKER didn't appeal
CHICLET absent too long for a mare
SEYCHELLOISE may pop up
But I want more evidence that 5f suits
MEDICEAN MAN - Too old for comfort

I would shortlist these

CASPIAN PRINCE
MOVIESTA
DOUBLE UP
GOLDREAM

I could go for any of these
Could get lucky or unlucky
Bit or a random choice

I like GOLDREAM
He comes from the Prix de l'Abbaye in France
The 2008 2014 2015 winners of this prepped there
DOUBLE UP could be a saver
I am going to play it this way

£7.00 Win Bet GOLDREAM 7/2

£1.50 Win Bet CASPIAN PRINCE 9/2

£1.50 Win Bet DOUBLE UP 9/2


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