0 Bet today
0 Negative
10 Races Discussed

Six meetings today but only a few races look
interesting. Cheltenham is all Hunter Chases
and only 1 preview there. Punchestown is not
covered as it is too viscous. We are going to
have to just cover the less prestigious races.

The message is split between a few grubbier
races that do seem to offer opportunities we
could get involved in. Those other previews
are too flabby lacking any strong conviction.

I thought about a bet and we are due one at
the moment but I am leaving it alone today.
It is still only April and no rush at all. I have
4 bets highlighted. Should really be just the
two but I will surprised if the two best bets
do not return us a profit and both could win.


Today's Bet

No Official Bet



T o d a y s M e s s a g e

This message is probably a bit too long
One of the problems I have with this message
Is several previews have turned out quite bulky
Lots to say but the end product not very strong
I think it has been overcooked in places
Thats why I would say don't follow all the message
Unless it is with small stakes and open eyes

I will highlight 4 bets today

3 of these are Wolverhampton and Brighton
These 3 bets are lower grade and feel a bit Grubby

The other is at Cheltenham in a 4m Hunter Chase
That bet is by far the riskiest bet of the 4
I can not known enough about the race to be confident
But at least it is not in a dirty grubby little race



Wolverhampton 1.50

£8 Win Mount Cheiron 3/1
£2 Win Lynngale 11/2

This bet depends on getting the favourite beaten
I think we can but not a cast iron case against it



Wolverhampton 3.30

Dream Ally 7/2

Each Way

Again we have to get the favourite beaten
I felt this bet was the only logical option
Just hope the 7lbs rider doesn't cock it up
Best bet in the message for me
But drawn 9 with a 7lbs claimer an issue
And I am cold at Wolverhampton these days


Brighton 7.25

£7 Win Malaysian Boleh 11/4
£3 Saver Hawk Moth 7/2

Malaysian Boleh is a certainty on his sand form
But they are not running on sand
His fitness could be a powerful weapon here



Cheltenham 7.35

One Conemara 10/1

£7.50 Win
£2.50 Place

This is far too risky to commit to
But if he wins the overall experience of this bet
Will be one of beauty unlike the grubbier bets
Has to be minimum stakes though



The Best Bets Today are these

Wolverhampton 3.30
Dream Ally 7/2 (Nap)
Each Way

Brighton 7.25
£7 Win Malaysian Boleh 11/4
£3 Saver Hawk Moth 7/2




N e g a t i v e s

No Negative Today

Results of Negatives
22 correct bets from 29




T u e s d a y s R e v i e w

Only a Novelty bet yesterday and whilst neither
race provided winners it was an interesting pair
of races. Rockliffe and French Legend finished
5th and 6th. I don't think Rockliffe fully stayed.
I shortlisted the winner and all the negatives in
the analysis worked out and after the race was
over I felt it was a missed opportunity. In these
races you have to make about 50 mini decisions
and whilst some of those do not matter the vast
majority have to be right to get a winner a there
were very few wrong decisions made there but
one was not to include the winner in the staking.

In the Punchestown race Ballychorus unseated
at the 9th fence when going well and that was a
shame and we will never know what might have
happened. The savers both flopped and it looks
like Cheltenham took too much about of these.

It was a bit anti climatic and frustrating in parts
much as it was asking a lot to get both winners.






P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s



W o l v e r h a m p t o n 1.50

11/4 Diamond Runner, 100/30 Mount Cheiron
9/2 Lynngale, 6/1 Pipers Piping, 13/2 Miss Buckaroo
8/1 Just Five, 12/1 Zeteah.

This is an Apprentice Race over a Mile
April and May have 123 similar races
Only 7 runners and not a pleasant frame

DIAMOND RUNNER leaves me a bit cold
He won 4 days ago
That was his first race of the season
If I look at horses aged 4 running within 11 days
With 1 run this season
I find a 0-19 record
That makes me consider that he might bounce
It is a very quick return after several months off
I'm uncomfortable with his profile

JUST FIVE looks underraced
No horse as old as him won with 1 run this season

MISS BUCKAROO - Not a safe profile
She is a lightly raced 4yo filly
She was beaten 15 lengths last time
If I look at all similar lighter raced 4yo fillies
None managed to win beaten more than 5 lengths

ZETEAH is not like a winner
Mares aged 5 or more are 0-27 first time out

Shortlist

LYNNGALE - Decent profile and shortlistable
The main concern is a poor 1-33 strike rate

MOUNT CHEIRON has the most to offer

Selection

£8 Win MOUNT CHEIRON 3/1

£2 Win LYNNGALE 11/2




A s c o t 2.10

2/1 The Last Lion, 5/2 Create A Dream
7/2 Sterling Silva, 8/1 Captain Hawk, 14/1 Compton Lane
16/1 Deningy, 16/1 Inner Circle, 25/1 Walter Raleigh.

This is a 2yo conditions race
The market points to 3 superior runners

THE LAST LION won the Brocklesby
That day he was supposed to be 2nd favourite
CREATE A DREAM was the day of race favourite
But she did not race in the end
CREATE A DREAM may not have enough today
Given that she is an unraced filly
And she takes on two unbeaten Males with experience
The other factor is her age
CREATE A DREAM is a late enough foal
THE LAST LION is 10 weeks older
I have to stay with the Males

THE LAST LION has a Racing Post Rating of 86
STERLING SILVA has a Racing Post Rating of 73
Past winners won this race with the following ratings
97 89 97 92 91 90 100 92 92
That tells me this may be a weak renewal
THE LAST LION is far closer to those numbers
They suggest he is the safest bet
You can argue the opposite though
STERLING SILVA each way could be the safest bet
Given 8 runners are only 3 horses fancied
But I am going with the numbers
THE LAST LION has achieved more

Selection

THE LAST LION 11/8

Win Be




P o n t e f r a c t 2.35

11/4 Hammer Gun, 11/4 Amazing Red, 4/1 Alquffaal
9/2 Ice Galley, 9/2 Lord Yeats, 13/2 Timekeeping
25/1 Aristocles, 66/1 Mr Turner.

This is a 10f maiden race

There is a draw statistic that interests me
If you look at races over 10f here
That have 7-8-9-10 runners as this does
Then since 2010 horses drawn 8 or more are 1-100

AMAZING RED is well backed but drawn 8
Will be interesting to see how big a problem that is
ALQUFFAAL has the worst draw in stall 9

This is a race that requires a guess anyway
LORD YEATS isn't entirely convincing
2nd last time but it was in a small field
And the favourite disappointed in that race
He started life wit George Moore
I find it hard to believe that is a positive
If I had to nominate 2 horses
TIMEKEEPING would be one of these
HAMMER GUN the other
I think the ground beat HAMMER GUN at Nottingham
Seasonal debutant so fitness could be an issue
But given all the issues he is my choice

Win Bet HAMMER GUN 4/1

Saver Bet TIMEKEEPING 5/1






W o l v e r h a m p t o n 3.30

7/2 Dream Ally, 4/1 Diamond Vine
9/2 Jack The Laird, 11/2 Assertive Agent
8/1 Blackasyourhat, 8/1 Cuban Queen, 9/1 Multi Quest
14/1 Smart Dj, 20/1 Titus Secret.

This is a low grade 6f handicap
There are only 28 of these races
Thats 28 races in 0-60 or lower in April and May

If I look at 3 year olds
They have a 0-40 record in these 28 races

Now they have won similar races at 5f and 7f
And they have won in slightly better class 0-70's
So I can't discard them with complete confidence
But I really do not want a 3 year old here

JACK THE LAIRD is a 3 year old
He has been heavily backed
But with just 4 career starts
And down in trip with 1 run this year
I just can't see the appeal
CUBAN QUEEN is also rejected aged 3

Not many of these made any great appeal
In the end I was drawn to DREAM ALLY
I like the 2 day absence and his fitness
My angles tell me to be careful
They say I should not overestimate this
The record of similar horses is just ok not strong
But I would far rather have this profile than a 3yo

The 7lbs jockey worries me a bit
The Racing Post argue we have the worst draw in 9
2016 races here with 8-9-10 runners
Winners had the following draws
6 2 5 5 9 7 5 9 5 3 2 7 7 8 6 8 8
I think their draw comment is rubbish
But we still have that 7lbs claimer


Selection

DREAM ALLY 100/30 -7/2

Each Way





A s c o t 3.55

13/8 Washington Dc, 5/2 Gifted Master
6/1 C Note, 8/1 Dhahmaan, 14/1 Gracious John
14/1 Orvar, 20/1 Dream Dubai, 20/1 Priceless
33/1 Zebstar.

This is a Group 3 race for 3 year olds over 6f
The previous 15 winners had the following runs
4 9 5 8 4 4 6 5 8 6 5 5 3 10 4 12
DREAM DUBAI looks too inexperienced with 1 run
C NOTE has only ran twice before
14 of the last 15 winners had at least 2 more runs
None won as inexperienced as him
I don't like him enough because of that
PRICELESS only has 3 runs as well
As a seasonal debutant I am looking elsewhere

WASHINGTON DC drops from 7f to 6f
I looked at past renewals and several did that
I pass his profile as more than good enough
His problem will be handling the softer ground

GIFTED MASTER does handle the ground
There is a case for a sneaky each way bet on him
My angles do not support that though
If I look at horses who raced over 6f this season
Those with under 2 runs that year were 0-25
That just undermines the case for an each way bet

DHAHMAAN is a seasonal debutant with 4 runs
So was the 2015 winner of this as well
On paper his profile demands respect
I think I should split stake this race

We can buy WASHINGTON DC out of the race
Best Numbers and should win if handling the ground
But if he doesn't we have another option

Selection

£3 Each Way DHAHMAAN 8/1

£4 Win Bet WASHINGTON DC 11/8





N e w m a r k e t 4.05

5/2 Bionic Indian, 100/30 Wedgewood Estates
7/2 Presto Boy, 8/1 Its Only Mossy, 10/1 Guapo Bay
14/1 Lady Zodiac, 20/1 Tally´s Song.

This is a low grade 6f handicap
There are only 28 of these races
Thats 28 races in 0-60 or lower in April and May

This is Division 2 of the 3.30pm race
The same issues apply to 3 year olds

If I look at 3 year olds have a 0-40 record
Now they have won similar races at 5f and 7f
And they have won in slightly better class 0-70's
So I can't discard them with complete confidence
But I really do not want a 3 year old here

ITS ONLY MOSSY is rejected aged 3
GUAPO BAY is rejected aged 3
TALLY´S SONG is rejected aged 3

LADY ZODIAC is a 4yo filly first time out
I'd prefer a fitter make higher in the weights

Shortlist

PRESTO BOY has a good chance
I fancied him last time. He should have won
He has been constantly moving up and down 2f in trip
Because of that I've more often than not opposed him
PRESTO BOY caught my eye 2 runs ago
Trapped wide he finished with a lot in hand
I risked him down at 5f last time
The jockey didn't help and he was only 2nd
Statistically PRESTO BOY is not safe
Not as a 4yo up in distance
So he would not be a statistical choice
Another thing bothers me
I wish his trainer would book a professional jockey
On his profile he should not really be my selection
So I am going to use him as a saver

WEDGEWOOD ESTATES is respected
Older mare absent 39 days though
I found 1 winner like her
I'd have preferred a more recent race

BIONIC INDIAN won over 7f last time
Drops down to 6f trying to follow up
Statistically he has a neutral profile
But fit and in form he is the safest choice

£7 Win BIONIC INDIAN 5/2

£3 Win PRESTO BOY 7/2





P o n t e f r a c t 5.25

9/2 Swirral Edge, 5/1 Captain Dion, 6/1 Wishsong
13/2 Kestrel Call, 13/2 Piccardo, 8/1 Danzeb
8/1 Smart Mover, 9/1 Mininggold, 11/1 Mr Chuckles
16/1 Be Bop Tango.

This is a 3yo handicap over 6f
April and May have 213 of these races on turf

5 of these races were run at Pontefract
The 5 winners had 4 3 5 9 8 runs
They had 1 1 2 5 4 runs that season

SMART MOVER has a dodgy profile
She is a filly dropping from 8f to 6f
Fillies that came that season from 8f races are 0-38
I think she should fail with her profile
BE BOP TANGO also drops from 8f to 6f
With 1 run this year I'd uncomfortable with his profile

MININGGOLD is a filly first time out
Not for me far too exposed with 11 runs
The female debutants all had 8 or fewer runs
MININGGOLD with 11 looks unsuitable

CAPTAIN DION has raced just twice
I looked at seasonal debutants with under 3 runs
Those like him who won a maiden last time
There was a modest 1-24 record
The only winner was Intrepid Jack
He ended up as a high class pattern horse
And he carried 15lbs less weight when he did it
I am not drawn to CAPTAIN DION's chance

PICCARDO has 3 runs from a maiden last year
Very traditional profile
Not exciting or like a winner of this race
But similar types do win similar races elsewhere

SWIRRAL EDGE is a filly first time out
Not a brilliant profile
Not when winning on her last race last time
I wouldn't make her a negative
But not a sire I am found of either

DANZEB comes from a Nursery last year
Horses doing this with 4 career starts were 4-45
2 of the 4 winners came from 5f like him
1 of the 4 winners won last time like him
None exactly like him winning a 5f Nursery
But I think his profile is reasonably positive

MR CHUCKLES has a nice profile
1 run this year which will help here
May not have much scope but shortlistable

WISHSONG has had runs this season
I found 1 winner like her
Would have found more with a more recent run
More than enough to shortlist

KESTREL CALL has enough class to win this
His last run was a 31 length thrashing though
You have too forgive him that if he is to win
It was heavy ground at Ripon
Connections said he hated the ground that day
He was also drawn badly in stall 1 in a big field
I think these excuses are legitimate
I forgive him that but he has disappointed before


Selection

£3 Each Way KESTREL CALL 10/1

£2 Win Bet WISHSONG 8/1





B r i g h t o n 6.15

7/4 Knight Commander, 5/2 Auntie Barber
5/1 Swiftee, 11/2 Le Tissier, 13/2 Four Poets
16/1 Mischief Maisy

This is a Maiden Auction just short of 10f

AUNTIE BARBER is a filly from a 7f race
If I look at fillies coming from 7f in similar races
That raced this season
I found winners with 1 career start
Those with 2 or more runs were 0-43
AUNTIE BARBER fails this 0-43 statistic with 4 runs
She may win but none have done so far
In any 9f-10f maiden in April or May before

LE TISSIER has a chance but doesn't inspire me
Not a big type and no obvious scope to improve
MISCHIEF MAISY's numbers are very low


FOUR POETS - I will take a chance on him
Not sure if he will stay or not
But by a process of elimination he gets the verdict

Selection

FOUR POETS 11/4

Win Bet




B r i g h t o n 7.25

15/8 One Big Surprise, 4/1 Hawk Moth
4/1 Malaysian Boleh, 15/2 Jonnie Skull,
8/1 Loud, 10/1 Comadoir, 40/1 Just Marion.

This is a low grade 7f handicap
April and May have 48 of these races

ONE BIG SURPRISE comes from 5f
I can't bet a filly doing this
Not with just 4 career starts
In 48 races horses from 5f races were 0-17
In 48 races horses with under 5 runs were 0-19
In this class of race inexperienced horses worry me
Another side issue is his sire Kier Park
He has never bred a winner short of a Mile
All 17 that tried were beaten
You can argue thats another case against him
But you can flip that argument the other way
And argue it makes his 5f races all the more creditable
Either way he can not be my selection

When I consider recent Numbers
And fitness and recent runs
MALAYSIAN BOLEH stands out a mile
Recent Racing Post Ratings of 71 70 75 70 74
Most have never achieved similar numbers
Or achieved then in recent years

Two problems with this
They were achieved on Sand
MALAYSIAN BOLEH is 0-10 on Grass
We do not know if he can perform well enough on grass
There is a doubt about whether this is his best trip

HAWK MOTH needs to be considered
I see him as most likely to win if Malaysian Boleh doesn't
He's never won at this time of year though
He is there not because of positives about him
More so about worries with Malaysian Boleh

MALAYSIAN BOLEH though stands out a mile
I love that recent run
It is just the Sand to Turf switch to overcome
Said many times before I don't like Pigeon Holing horses
He could blow these away if he copes with it

Selection

£7 Win MALAYSIAN BOLEH 11/4

£3 Saver HAWK MOTH 7/2





C h e l t e n h a m 7.35

3/1 Major Malarkey, 7/2 Carruthers
6/1 Night Alliance, 8/1 Pentiffic, 10/1 Indiana Bay
10/1 Join Together, 10/1 Vasco Du Mee
12/1 Farmer Matt, 14/1 Hunters Lodge
14/1 One Conemara, 20/1 Barlow, 25/1 Grove Pride
33/1 Charles Bruce, 40/1 Jakros, 40/1 Mister Philson
40/1 Schindler´s Prince, 40/1 Tin Pot Man
66/1 Karinga Dandy, 100/1 Father Owen
100/1 Turtle Boys.

4m Hunter Chase
Only 44 of these races all year round

The favourites are 13 year olds
If I look at horses aged 13 or more
They are 0-29 in this race
In 44 similar races we find a 3-69 record
2 of those ran within 8 days
Those that did not had a 1-59 record
The only one that won was the high class Earthmover

CARRUTHERS is now 13 years old
Age stats against him and he prefers smaller fields
MAJOR MALARKEY is 13 years old
He won this race last season
That entitles him to a lot of respect
But he is 13 now and has a lighter season this year
I can't accept him at a price of around 3/1 or 100/30
Too short in a massive field here over 4 miles

7 year olds score badly
Only the very talented Lord Atterbury won aged 7
VASCO DU MEE is rejected aged 7

HUNTERS LODGE - Stamina concerns
FARMER MATT comes from a 2m 4f race
That is a big worry and I don't think he will stay
INDIANA BAY looks short of stamina and class

JOIN TOGETHER -He is quite interesting
But he has a lot to prove not least current form
He has always been better in smaller fields too

PENTIFFIC - Not sure I can trust him
Not sure his win last time out is trustable too
He has only had 1 proper race in 11 months as well
My Breeding stats question him as well

NIGHT ALLIANCE won recently which is a positive
He has a chequered career before though
And he is up from 2m 4f as well

ONE CONEMARA looks very inexperienced
Only 2 chase runs is a worry
But he was only 6 back then in 2014
His trainer stated in a recent interview
"It's taken until now for him to blossom and fill out"
But he has had more experience in recent Points
His sire is one of the safest in the race too
ONE CONEMARA appeals most to me

Selection

ONE CONEMARA 8/1

£7.50 Win
£2.50 Place


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