0 Account Bet
0 Selection
0 Profile & Preview bet
0 Negatives
1 Races Discussed

A dull Tuesday with only two meetings and
today is just a one preview message given
little choice and like yesterday this is going
to be another low priority message and we
can get more ambitious tomorrow onwards.




Today's Bet

No Bet



T o d a y s M e s s a g e


This is the 7th message in a row and if the
plan is to finish the week without a break it
will mean 12 messages in a row. I dont want
to get to the weekend washed up and badly
overcooked so I have backed off yesterday
and today just to save energy and stay fresh.

I wasn't drawn to anything on the sand.
I decided to have a go at a handicap hurdle

Taunton 4.45

JOIN THE NAVY 7/1

Each Way


Not really in my comfort zone here. This is a
small strength bet. More so an experiment
in a race that doesn't suit me well. Very often
it is about deciding what things should matter
most in a race. Most horses you can find very
good positives and negatives for yet have to
decide which side of the fence it's best to sit.

With JOIN THE NAVY i could take a negative view
Of all the 2m 3f handicao hurdles at Taunton
None have yet gone to a horse aged 11
I decided to overlook that obvious concern

Instead among weaknesses for other runners
I decided to see his personal qualities as ideal
A brilliant record at the track
A brilliant record on heavy ground

The results will show if that helps or not
Hard to be sure out of my comfort zone
But around 7/1 it is just a small interest bet




N e g a t i v e s

No Negative Today


Results of Negatives
20 correct bets from 26



M o n d a y s S u m m a r y

Short one preview message yesterday.
It was a split stake bet that returned all
stake money. Never comfortable when
I have this sort of bet as not everybody
will get on but it wasn't a day where the
racing offered me much and I felt stale.



P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s




T a u n t o n 4.45

4/1 Jully Les Buxy, 4/1 Winged Express
9/2 Bishops Court, 9/2 Precious Ground
5/1 Join The Navy, 10/1 Exemplary
16/1 Milestone, 20/1 Hoist The Colours
20/1 Only Gorgeous, 25/1 Sheer Poetry
33/1 Taroum.


This is a 2m 3f Handicap Hurdle
197 similar races at this time of year

JULLY LES BUXY looks unsafe
She is a mare from a maiden hurdle
She only has 2 previous hurdle starts
That is very inexperienced for a mare
Especially with 76 days absence

MILESTONE has run two awful races in a row
He was lucky to win his Novice Hurdle
I can't see him defying topweight
TAROUM is unlikely to be fit enough
SHEER POETRY - Weak profile and may lack fitness
HOIST THE COLOURS is rejected as a seasonal debutant
ONLY GORGEOUS isn't running well enough
EXEMPLARY has a negative profile
He has 25 hurdle starts and vulnerable to improvers
What few winners aged 9 there were
had very recent runs and good last runs
He has neither and shouldn't be good enough

Possibles

WINGED EXPRESS won a similar race here in December
Since then he has ran well over fences
I looked at all similar races over 2m 2f to 2m 4f
Horses from a Chase in the last 7 weeks
Those aged under 9 years old were 1-73
Those with under 16 career starts were 0-49
WINGED EXPRESS shares this dissapointing profile
I found a winner with his profile over 2m
And one over longer distances
But in all similar races no have won like him

BISHOPS COURT has 4 novice hurdle runs
Well beaten at big prices each time
Ran well a long time at Chepstow
Only caught at the 3rd last
Raw type that will be winning one day
He has ability but hasn't fully learnt his job yet
He has the potential to win this race

PRECIOUS GROUND won a Novice Handicap last time
Similar horses aged 6 or more were 4-18
I respect his profile. One dropped in trip like him
That horse didn't win though

JOIN THE NAVY is 11 years old
Not exposed over hurdles though
I can find 2 similar winners to him
He ran very well in a better race last time
JOIN THE NAVY has a 2 5 2 W track record
He has a 2 W 2 W record on heavy ground over hurdles
Not too exposed with 10 hurdle runs he looks solid
His ground and track record persuade me

Selection

JOIN THE NAVY 7/1

Each Way

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