1 Bet today
0 Negative
7 Previews
8 Other races discussed



St Leger Day
7 previews in the Message
8 other races discussed later on
Which I didn't feel made the grade
There will be a Sunday Message
Thanfully that will be calmer
Obviously care needed today with the rain
I have forced a bet out today
Ideally I'd like to get in and out with 1 bet 1 winner




Today's Bet

Lingfield 2.25

£8 Win Bet GLORIOUS LEGEND 3/1

£2 Win Bet WANT THE FAIRYTALE 5/1


Last Saturdays bet didn't run
We have had a couple of recent no bet Saturdays
So I wanted to come up with a bet
The truth of the matter
I there is little between any of my 3 highlighted bets
I should really be going with the 6pm race
That is a far smarter bet tactically than this
But it involves betting 3 horses in a 6 runner race
Far too stressful especially if non runners come








T o d a y s M e s s a g e


7 Previews including the St Leger
I see an Idaho - Housesofparliament 1-2
But not a race that can offer us a bet in

Highlighting 3 races



Lingfield 2.25

£8 Win Bet GLORIOUS LEGEND 3/1

£2 Win Bet WANT THE FAIRYTALE 5/1

I was eyeing up Glorious Legend each way
But the price went and spoilt that option
I want the lighter raced improvers
That should stay in a race not all horses will
I still feel there is enough meat on the bone
To go with Glorious Legend and have a saver
Disappointed if we lose money here
Much as I'd rather have gone each way single



Doncaster 4.50

BANKSEA 9/4

Win Bet

Perfect type from a brilliant trial race
The only real gripe is the price
It is a quality handicap and feels a but short
But the 2nd favourite has withdrawn
So I feel a solid bet without too much reward




Doncaster 6.00

£6 Win Bet HIGH GROUNDS 6/1

£2 Win Bet FELIX MENDELSSOHN 4/1

£2 Win Bet STARS OVER THE SEA 7/2

I don't like giving you 3 horses in a race
Especially when there are just 6 runners
But it feels common sense to do that here
The only 3 horses that can beat us
Are very lightly raced this year
And have absences of at least 2 months
We have covered all the fittest horses







Daily Negatives

No Negative Today

Results of Negatives
27 correct bets from 38





F r i d a y s R e v i e w

Friday was a No Bet day
The Message revolved around 3 races
We finished L P P
Could easily have been W P P
Could actually have been W W P
QUEST FOR MORE was nutted on the line
Led everywhere and looked like he had won
I told you strange things can happen in that race
That was quite a frustrating last couple of strides
MISTER MUSIC each way placed
Went to the front and went 1.10 in running
Thought he'd won but the favourite rallied
Maybe he went too early in his
Didn't lose anything but so close to victory there
The last preview also broke level
We backed the 1st 2nd and the 5th
Good overall effort and stakes fully returned
Happy enough with the 3 highlighted races



P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s



L i n g f i e l d 2.25

4/1 Fearless Lad, 9/2 Want The Fairytale, 5/1 Fast Play
6/1 Londonia, 7/1 Social Media, 8/1 Glorious Legend
10/1 Graceful Lady, 12/1 The Quarterjack, 14/1 The Juggler
16/1 Peeps, 50/1 Star Anise.

Low Grade Handicap over 1m 6f

LONDONIA - Unsafe from a hurdle race
I looked at the record of 3 year olds
No 3yo has won a similar race from short of 11f last time
THE JUGGLER and SOCIAL MEDIA have this problem
GRACEFUL LADY also has this problem

FAST PLAY - No great shock if she were to win
But no 4yo has won with under 8 runs
Noi 4yo filly won with under 16 runs
And FAST PLAY only has 5 career starts
And her sire has never had a winner over this far before

FEARLESS LAD is an exposed 6yo
These can and do win
He has never won on Grass though
He is not certain to stay either
And if I look at horses aged 6 or more
Who come from 1m 5f or shorter
There is a Modest 1-42 record
Must be vulnerable to younger improvers
He could win but not my first choice
THE QUARTERJACK has a similar problem
She is a 7yo up in distance
Not a great profile but could still win
But potentially vulnerable to improvers

Shortlist

I am staying with the lighter raced 3 year olds
WANT THE FAIRYTALE has enough to shortlist
GLORIOUS LEGEND - One of the more interesting profiles
Hampered last time and should have been much closer

Selection

£8 Win Bet GLORIOUS LEGEND 3/1

£2 Win Bet WANT THE FAIRYTALE 5/1




B a t h 2.45

3/1 Mambo Spirit, 7/2 Beau Mistral, 6/1 The Reel Way
7/1 Presto Boy, 8/1 Burauq, 8/1 Golden Rosanna
10/1 Diamond Vine, 14/1 Gypsy Rider, 14/1 Suitsus.

Trappy little handicap
5f and 161 yards is an awkward distance as well
We have a 12yo favourite absent 3 weeks
MAMBO SPIRIT is still very well treated though
Whilst I see weakness in his profile
I still see him as a danger to my choice
We have a few with long absences
GYPSY RIDER is a 7yo seasonal debutant
With no backclass I have to oppose him
PRESTO BOY has a 75 day absence
Not ideal for an exposed 4 year old
He has a 0-24 career record as well
SUITSUS has 61 days absence
With just 2 runs this year I have to oppose him
Every chance of getting those beaten
BURAUQ has a small chance but is very beatable
GOLDEN ROSANNA is a cheap 3yo filly
Her numbers are just not good enough


Shortlist

MAMBO SPIRIT should be shortlisted
But he is 12 now and I liked others as well

THE REEL WAY is unsafe down from a mile
She is an older mare dropping down over 2f
She has never raced at 6f before never mind 5.5f
Win lose or draw this is not a safe profile
I still want to shortlist her for one reason
I have looked at her pedigree in detail
She has had 11 career starts
And I don't think she was bred to stay any of them
She has spent all her life at 7f and more
When I don't think she stays 7f
So this could well be her distance
I am quite tempted by her
But my angles say no winner has won like her
And Video Analysis was Positive
And if I am right about her not staying 7f
Then she must be thrown in off 46

BEAU MISTRAL has an interesting personal record
He only wins with recent runs
She is 0-28 when absent over 17 days
If you look at her record running within 17 days
Running over 5f-6f on Grass
Class 3 or lower
Running in June onwards
BEAU MISTRAL has a 7-25 record under these conditions
Throw out fields of 11 or more
That becomes a 6-14 record
BEAU MISTRAL has these conditions today

Selection

£5 Win Bet BEAU MISTRAL 4/1

£5 Win Bet THE REEL WAY 7/1






D o n c a s t e r 3.45

8/11 Idaho, 4/1 Muntahaa, 6/1 Housesofparliament
14/1 Sword Fighter, 20/1 Ventura Storm, 25/1 Harbour Law
25/1 Ormito, 50/1 Harrison, 100/1 The Tartan Spartan.

The St Leger is a Classic for 3 year olds over 1m 6f
IDAHO does look strong this year
His presence sort of spoils the race for me
I ran some Breeding Statistics
Sires with 14f + winners in Pattern races
Only the Galileos and Dubawi's passed
My Breeding stats 1 of these 3 should win
IDAHO
SWORD FIGHTER
HOUSESOFPARLIAMENT

Hard to like SWORD FIGHTER
As the O'Brien 3rd string down from 2 miles
The last 28 winners had one thing in common
Racing Post Ratings of at least 108
HARBOUR LAW and ORMITO dont have that
MUNTAHAA is improving fast
But my breeding stats don't support him
And he only comes from a handicap
All 19 horses doing that were beaten
VENTURA STORM also fails my breeding stats
He also looks too exposed
Recent winners had the following career starts
6 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 5 5 8 7 9 6 6 6 3 9 7 6 7 7 5 5 5 3 4
VENTURA STORM has 10 runs more than all winners
I can only shortlist 2 horses
HOUSESOFPARLIAMENT
IDAHO
I feel IDAHO should have more class than these
But at the price I can't be bothered
Going with an Exacta instead

Selection

IDAHO
HOUSESOFPARLIAMENT






Musselburgh 4.45

6/4 Soundstrings, 3/1 Lincoln Rocks
5/1 Marsh Pride, 6/1 Quick N Quirky, 7/1 Flinty Fell
14/1 Forever A Lady.

This is a Fillies Handicap over a Mile
There are 31 similar races in September

Horses aged 3 won 26 of the 33 races
Today all runners are 3 year olds
Except MARSH PRIDE a 4yo
I don't want to go with her
Not conceding weight to younger horse
Horses aged 4 like MARSH PRIDE are 2-67
These 2 winners had 23 and 39 runs
Those with under 23 runs aged 4 were 0-45
MARSH PRIDE has this problem
FLINTY FELL was beaten 28 lengths last time
I looked at 3yo's beaten over 10 lengths last time
There was a 0-32 record and he looks unsafe
FOREVER A LADY did not do enough last time
Not when running recently and when quite exposed
QUICK N QUIRKY is 3 and comes from 7f
That worries me as he already has 17 career runs
If I look at 3 year olds from 7f or shorter
Those with 9 or more runs were 1-18
Those with 13 or more runs were 0-3
Small numbers but none have won like her
If I look at every 3yo with 15 or more runs
I return a 0-14 record suggesting shes exposed
In fact if I look at all fillies handicaps in September
Any Distance during this month
Horses aged 3 with 16 or more runs were 1-69
The only winner was years ago with a 3 day absence

Shortlist

SOUNDSTRINGS is the sexy horse
She is a 3yo coming from a 7f maiden
Horses with this profile had a 2-4 record
The 2 winnners had 1 and 6 career starts
SOUNDSTRINGS with 4 runs isn't a perfect match
But she was expensive and will be progressive
The doubt is whether she is sufficiently battle hardened

LINCOLN ROCKS has a good profile
Look at 3 year olds
Winning 8f Handicaps last time
Having 8-9-10 career starts
Running 10-18 days ago
5 horses had this profile
They finished W 4 W 6 W
LINCOLN ROCKS has this 3-5 profile

Selection

I think we should bet both horses
If the favourite wins we break level
If LINCOLN ROCKS wins
We end up with a 2/1 winner

£6 Win Bet LINCOLN ROCKS 4/1

£4 Saver SOUNDSTRINGS 6/4





D o n c a s t e r 4.50

5/2 Banksea, 11/2 Up In Lights
6/1 Breakable, 13/2 Can´t Change It, 15/2 One Word More
10/1 Czabo, 12/1 Dinkum Diamond, 16/1 King´s Pavilion
50/1 Marcret.

This is an 8f Class 2 handicap
9 past renewals of this race
There are 49 similar races elsewhere

CZABO is a 3yo filly absent 85 days
That's too long and an unsafe profile from a Group 1
Plenty of 3 year old winners of these races
None had more than 14 career starts
KING´S PAVILION is wrong with 18 runs

UP IN LIGHTS has raced just twice this year
That could be a problem for a filly
No fillies won these races without at least 4 runs
His lack of recent runs worries me
MARCRET has raced just twice this year
That's unacceptable for a 9yo

DINKUM DIAMOND is 8 older than ideal
His last race was his first ever race over this far
Having 9st 9lbs is not ideal either
This has tended to be a lightweights race
Look at horses with 9st 5lbs or more in this race
They have a very poor 1-46 record in recent years

If you look at horses aged 5 or more
Who come from 7f or shorter
And run within the last 4 weeks
You find a 0-49 record
CAN´T CHANGE IT has this weak profile
ONE WORD MORE also has this weak profile

BREAKABLE is an older mare on a hat trick
If I look at last time winners aged 5 or more
All 23 that tried to follow up were beaten
Wont be easy for her especially as a mare
And without a run in 3 weeks now
And on a career high mark

Selection

BANKSEA has a good profile
He is a 3yo with 8 career starts
If you look at 3 year olds with 7-8 runs
Who ran within 6 weeks
Beaten last time but by under 3 lengths
There was an excellent 3-7 record
BANKSEA has this profile
He also comes from the best trial race at York
That York race is a very smart trial
Horses that ran at York in that race won these renewals
1997 1999 2000 2001 2005 2007 2010 2015
They were all aged 3-4-5 and were well raced this year
If he handles the ground he should just about win

Selection

BANKSEA 9/4

Win Bet



D o n c a s t e r 6.00

9/4 Gold Trail, 11/4 Stars Over The Sea
9/2 Argus, 9/2 Felix Mendelssohn, 8/1 Ajman Bridge
8/1 High Grounds.

Classs 2 Handicap over 12f

GOLD TRAIL is a 5 year old
I'd avoid him with just 1 run in almost 13 months
Especially with 63 days off the track
And Topweight on rain softened ground
Not to mention a career high mark

AJMAN BRIDGE also looks short of runs

This is an interesting Statistic

January to October
12f Handicaps in Class 2
Horses aged 4 or more
Absent more than 44 days
12 or more career starts
Horses that had this profile
Had a 0-117 record

GOLD TRAIL fails this 0-117 statistic
AJMAN BRIDGE also fails this 0-117 statistic


ARGUS has raced just once this season
I would not trust him because of that
He does scare me as he was so expensive
But I am staying with the proven fitter horses


My shortlist would be these

FELIX MENDELSSOHN
HIGH GROUNDS
STARS OVER THE SEA
There is scope to bet all 3 here

HIGH GROUNDS has an absence
But he has been gelded
Could be the making of him
He was a very well regarded horse
He is the only 3yo in the race

If we back 3 horses in the race
The only 3 horses that can beat us
Are very lightly raced this year
And have absences of at least 2 months

Selection

£6 Win Bet HIGH GROUNDS 6/1

£2 Win Bet FELIX MENDELSSOHN 4/1

£2 Win Bet STARS OVER THE SEA 7/2



Leopardstown 6.10

2/1 Awtaad, 7/2 Tribal Beat, 4/1 Hit It A Bomb
13/2 Custom Cut, 10/1 Sruthan, 12/1 Gordon Lord Byron
14/1 Flight Risk, 20/1 Dream Walker.

This is a Group 2 race over a Mile

AWTAAD has the best form
High Class form in June before losing in Sussex Stakes
Obviously he can win this on his best form
It just depends how close he is to his peak right now

AWTAAD has 1 big factor in his favour
His two market rivals have raced just once this year
HIT IT A BOMB has raced once since Oct 2015
TRIBAL BEAT has raced once since Oct 2015
There are 37 similar races run in Setember
I looked at how 3 year olds got on with 1 run that year
None of them won any of these races
Because of that I can not commit to either
HIT IT A BOMB has also got stall 1
If you look at horses with under 14 career starts
Those drawn 1 are 0-101 in Mile races at this track
FLIGHT RISK is too unorthodox
He ran over 6f just a week ago
CUSTOM CUT may not have enough class
It was a softer race when he won this next year
I have to go with AWTAAD
As I can not commit to any of his rivals

Selection

AWTAAD 7/4

Win Bet








N e w M e s s a g e S e c t i o n

There are other 9 races below
That I wanted to discuss in various detail
None of these have firm conclusions
I didn't think I made the case for any of them
But there should be stuff in there that might help


Doncaster 2.00

Evs Rivet, 5/2 Thunder Snow, 5/1 Majeste
8/1 D´bai, 25/1 Grey Britain, 25/1 Tommy Taylor.

The Champagne Stakes is a useless trends race
If you look at horses from 6f maidens
All 10 were beaten in this race
MAJESTE has that problem to overcome
History shows us that the winners of this race
Runs to a Racing Post Rating between 111 and 117
THUNDER SNOW has a Racing Post Rating of 107
His main rivals have not managed to better 98 yet
If you look at past winners Racing Post Rating
Before the day of the race
They had achieved the following ratings
93 114 108 106 106 99 112
THUNDER SNOW is the only horse with similar numbers
MAJESTE has only done an 81 and 85
D´BAI has only done a pair of 84's
RIVET looks stronger with a 82 and 93
He may improve considerably and will be a threat
But if we use the Numbers argument
Then THUNDER SNOW is entitled to be the pick

However if the ground turns softer than Good
My Breeding stats will want a say in matters
If I look at the sires in this race
And looked at their 2yo runners over 7f or more
In pattern class on ground softer than good
Only 2 horses come from sires who have achieved this
D´BAI and MAJESTE
But that of course depends on it being softer ground
Because of this I feel we are at the mercy of the elements
I do like my Numbers argument
And feel THUNDER SNOW has proven the most
But in a badly framed race with inclement weather
I can't commit to a selection



Doncaster 2.35

I don't do the Portland Handicap Anymore
My Best Stats are these
The last 14 winners of this race had the following draws
10 15 12 21 15 16 18 21 5 5 13 15 20 9 8 7
Avoid horses drawn 1-2-3-4
The longest absent winner was 57 days
Horses aged 4 that won last time out are 0-20
Horses with 21 + runs are weak
They need to be male and running within 4 weeks
If coming from 5f they need a run within 2 weeks
I'd avoid the fillies
This and other very speculative angles
Lead me to a very ropey shortlist of 6 horses

Out Do - Bowson Fred - Captain Colby
Shamshon - Son Of Africa -Final Venture





B a t h 3.20

4/1 Alligator, 9/2 Aventus, 9/2 Masterofdiscovery
5/1 Sir Plato, 9/1 A Sure Welcome, 10/1 Moneyoryourlife
10/1 On Show, 12/1 Hazy Manor, 16/1 Battle Of Wits
25/1 Cautious Choice, 25/1 General Allenby
33/1 Hot N Sassy.

This is a low grade 8f Nursery
Looks quite complicated
Stamina has to be an issue for many of these
The sire Dick Turpin is 0-17 with 2 year olds over a mile +
MONEYORYOURLIFE by this sire may not stay
A SURE WELCOME is another uncertain to stay
HOT N SASSY has stamina and class issues
CAUTIOUS CHOICE - Numbers too low
GENERAL ALLENBY offers very little
I want to oppose AVENTUS
Look at 8f races here with 10 or more runners
Since 2009 horses drawn 1 had a 0-63 record
AVENTUS drawn 1 is opposed
BATTLE OF WITS has a recent run
Not very appealing and hard to like though
HAZY MANOR makes limited appeal

Possibles

SIR PLATO is entitled to some respect

MASTEROFDISCOVERY - Needs to show far more

ON SHOW's numbers are very low
But gambling connections and he is being backed
And he didn't run badly last time with excuses
Looks a saver bet at least

ALLIGATOR - Looks to offer the most
My main worry is stamina which sounds strange
But his last race over a mile wasn't truly run
ALIGATOR each way could be the bet
But he isn't sure to stay especially if the ground changes
The hope is the last half furlong doesn't catch him out






Bath 3.50

7/4 Good Omen, 7/4 Khattar, 11/4 Whip Nae Nae
12/1 I´vegotthepower, 33/1 Raj Balaraaj
33/1 Sam The Rebel, 40/1 Chamasay
40/1 The Batham Boy.

8f Maiden for 2 year olds
KHATTAR is an unraced Frankel colt
Full respect to him but I don't want him
If you look at all Bath races over a mile
And look at the unraced 2 year olds
They have a 3-117 record
Those drawn 4 or more were 0-79
KHATTAR is unraced and drawn 7
Not an ideal place for debutants anyway
GOOD OMEN has 2 runs
WHIP NAE NAE has 3 runs
Decent numbers I have to prefer both to Khattar
GOOD OMEN looks the likely winner
But WHIP NAE NAE does have a chance
And could be viewed as the clever bet each way
If I had to call it though
I felt GOOD OMEN had more class
But wasn't prepared to risk a bet at 4/5



Doncaster 4.20

3/1 Stellar Surprise, 4/1 Harbour Master
9/2 Khalidi, 7/1 Maths Prize, 7/1 Mount Moriah
10/1 Drochaid, 14/1 Arborist.

Not interested in this 8f Nursery
Statistically there is slight weakness in a few
HARBOUR MASTER isn't quite right
Not winning at 7f with an absence and topweight
MATHS PRIZE won an 8f handicap last time
I wanted 1 more run to match him
DROCHAID - 4 runs winning a maiden isn't like a winner
Most past winners came from maiden races
There has been a filly win with 1 career start
That makes STELLAR SURPRISE acceptable
But I don't want to risk a once raced horse
MOUNT MORIAH - Just a bit weak on breeding stats
The last 2 winners won 8f maidens after 3 runs
KHALIDI has that profile
Win lose or draw it's safer than the above mentioned
Wide open race.
Not much confidence
KHALIDI appeals most




D o n c a s t e r 5.25

100/30 Renfrew Street, 7/2 Bess Of Hardwick
4/1 Moorside, 11/2 Kiltara, 13/2 Turning The Table
8/1 Missed Call, 12/1 Lustrous, 14/1 Sweet P.

12f Handicap for fillies
This is a Class 2 handicap
Rare race and only 8 similar races in September
They were all run at Newmarket
The 8 winners all had 2 things in common
They were 3 year olds
They all had under 12 career starts
Only 3 of these have this profile
MOORSIDE
RENFREW STREET
TURNING THE TABLE
These angles may not work
But we have little else to go on
And with lightly raced 3yo's winning all 8 similar races
It is unlikely to be a coincidence


Leopardstown 5.35

5/4 Qemah, 7/2 Persuasive, 9/2 Alice Springs
13/2 Jet Setting, 12/1 Now Or Never, 14/1 Hawksmoor
16/1 Devonshire, 33/1 Creggs Pipes.

The Matron Stakes is a Group 1 over a mile
I don't want to risk JET SETTING
Nit when she is a small filly with an absence
Or when she has the worst draw
PERSUASIVE won a Group 3 race last time over 8f
That was the first even Group race winner
That his sire Dark Angel has achieved over 8f or more
His Group race horses at 8f and more are now 1-58
His runners in Group 1 or Group 2 races are 0-24
PERSUASIVE steps up two grades now
This does look a soft Group 1 to be fair
But on Breeding stats he is certainly unproven
NOW OR NEVER may not have enough
ALICE SPRINGS is respected
Twice he has been beaten by QEMAH though
She broke the track record in the Falmouth
I think she is better on faster ground
Should be remembers she was favourite last time
I think QEMAH has the most talent
But this is wrapped up in complicated issues
Such as which back end targets these have
And how many are having prep races.
One option is the Split Stake win and place
ALICE SPRINGS to Place 10/11
QEMAH 6/4 to Win




Leopardstown 6.45

11/4 Minding, 3/1 Harzand, 6/1 Almanzor
8/1 Found, 9/1 New Bay, 12/1 Highland Reel
16/1 Hawkbill, 25/1 Success Days, 33/1 Moonlight Magic
33/1 My Dream Boat, 33/1 The Grey Gatsby
40/1 Sir Isaac Newton, 100/1 Ebediyin

Irish Champion Stakes
This is a Mouthwatering race
No idea what to do here
I am not persuaded by HARZAND back in trip
If You assume Ryan Moore has it right
Then MINDING may beat her stablemates
So I am leaving FOUND out
And HIGHLAND REEL out as well
I don't like NEW BAY with 2 runs this year
Every other horse and almost all past winners had more
HAWKBILL may have an outside squeak

ALMANZOR is shortlisted
French Derby winner with a turn of foot respected
MINDING we know is top class
She won't find this easy by any means
But if we back her each way at 3/1
You'd think she must have enough class to place
Three should not beat her unless she runs below form
Not an inspiring choice but hopefully a sensible one
MINDING 3/1 Each Way is my guess

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