No Bet Today

0 Negatives
5 Races Discussed

The message has been delayed because of
the Ludlow inspection. Sadly it's abandoned
and that has cost me my best bet as I felt we
had a great chance of landing the 3m hurdle.

This also meant 5 previews reduces to 3 so
I have added another couple of quick races.

I am also left with more shorter prices given
Ludlow had the bigger priced bets so that's
a disappointing abandonment for the message.



T o d a y s M e s s a g e

The Dilemma has to be whether to go with a
second choice bet having lost my 1st option.

I have decided not to do that.
Mainly because of the shorter prices.
Nothing from my 5 previews attracted me enough

Yesterday I stayed with the best profile horses
There were 2 of these and both of them won
Today there are also 2 horses with the best profile

Lingfield 3.20 - Ruler Of The Nile 1/1

Kempton 6.10 - Mystic Blaze 6/4

Each Way Double

Not keen enough to stake any at short prices
But I will suggest an each way double
I think both will win and should go very close
Not the most attractive of bets for many of you
But the payout is decent if both win
And Ludlows inspection came out of the blue
And it has damaged the message
And robbed me of my strongest bet



N e g a t i v e s

No Negative Today

Results of Negatives
22 correct bets from 28



T u e s d a y s S u m m a r y

Both yesterdays bets won much as they
were not bets that I highlighted. It does
at least show that we are in strong form
and I was pleased they both won. It may
appear to have been a mistake leaving
these at the bottom of the message but
I don't see things that way. The majority
of bets I send are not wrapped with gift
tags and easy to predict pretty ribbons.
It's not often I'm confident about any of
them. I'm a glass half empty man and all
I can trust is my long term record which
tells me we are working in the right way.





P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s


Doncaster 2.00

11/8 Divine Spear, 7/2 Chic Theatre, 9/2 The Unit
11/2 Peter The Mayo Man, 14/1 Brian Boranha
14/1 Kk Lexion, 20/1 Bored Or Bad, 25/1 Crockery
33/1 Change Or Go, 33/1 Sonneofpresenting
33/1 The Missus, 40/1 Definitly Grey
40/1 Eastview Boy, 66/1 Henrybrowneyes
66/1 Swinton Diamond, 100/1 Up The Junction.

2m Novice Hurdle
Looks a suitable race for a split stake bet
Staked very cautiously
This is a Win and a Place split stake

Half Stakes on both bets

DIVINE SPEAR 10/11 Win Bet

THE UNIT 10/11 Place Bet






L i n g f i e l d 2.20

5/4 Believe It, 9/2 Little Indian, 5/1 Pyroclastic
7/1 First Rebellion, 8/1 Tidal´s Baby, 9/1 Captain Kendall
20/1 Purford Green, 33/1 Chandrayaan.

This is a low grade 7f handicap

Just interested in what the favourite does
BELIEVE IT is a 4yo with 6 runs and a 40 day absence
My angles tell he he could be vulnerable
Not a safe sample size but some weakness here
I looked at all similar races in February

Male Horses aged 4
Coming from 7f or shorter
Under 11 career starts
Absent over 4 weeks
I find a 0-21 record with similar horses
The issue is whether 0-21 is enough to interest us
Some of the more fancied ones started at these prices
3/1 11/2 5/2 8/1 7/2 11/2 7/1 3/1
My angles say look elsewhere

FIRST REBELLION is the only horse up in trip
Aged 7 without a recent run not for me
Little doubts about all of these to be fair

If I look at 6 year old males
Who won 7f handicaps last time
And ran 9-13 days beforehand
There is a 3-7 record
LITTLE INDIAN has this profile
He clearly has the best profile
But he is drawn in stall 1
He lacks backclass as well

PYROCLASTIC has to overcome a bad defeat

TIDAL´S BABY profile isn't too shabby at all
I think I am going to split stake this
Oppose the favourite and try and land on one

Selection

£6 Win TIDAL´S BABY 10/1

£2 Win LITTLE INDIAN 9/2

£2 Win PYROCLASTIC 5/1




L i n g f i e l d 3.20

5/4 Ruler Of The Nile, 4/1 Amanto
9/2 Flighty Filia, 9/1 Thomas Blossom
12/1 Opera Buff, 12/1 Takeitfromalady
20/1 The Scourge, 20/1 Topaling.

This is a 2m handicap

First impressions
I wouldn't want to oppose the favourite

RULER OF THE NILE is a 4 year old
He won easily 10 days ago

Similar February 2m handicaps since 2002
If I look at 4 year old males
Who won 2m handicaps last time
Who have 7-10 career starts
And a run within the last 2 weeks
There was a W W W 3 W 3 record
RULER OF THE NILE has the best profile


AMANTO has 90 days off
Paul Nicholls has never trained a flat winner
You'd expect him to be shorter if fancied
THE SCOURGE has a long absence
FLIGHTY FILIA is a filly
She has raced just once in 66 days
That run was a complete flop as well
TOPALING has poor credentials
THOMAS BLOSSOM has a chance
He's raced just once in 72 days
And he comes up in distance
OPERA BUFF is another danger

But the favourite has a very good profile
I think with momentum and a recent run
He may win it like most that had similar profiles did

Selection

RULER OF THE NILE Evens

Win Bet





L i n g f i e l d 5.00

7/2 Hollywood All Star, 7/2 Storm Runner
9/2 Ferryview Place, 6/1 Kudu Country, 8/1 Miss Lillie
10/1 Engai, 12/1 Debit, 14/1 Nouvelle Ere
16/1 Evacusafe Lady, 25/1 Mildmay Arms
33/1 Querido, 33/1 Spice Boat.

This is an Amateur Race over 10f
Very few similar races have been run
What few there were went to similar types

Horses aged 5-7
Running within 2 weeks
Beaten under 5 lengths last time
20 or more career starts
At least 5 runs since November

The best matches in my view are these

MISS LILLIE
DEBIT
FERRYVIEW PLACE
ENGAI

Several of these may lack fitness
QUERIDO is one of those
STORM RUNNER is 8 and absent 77 days
If I look at horses aged 8 or more
Absent more than 51 days
They have a modest 1-50 record
STORM RUNNER doesn't stand out on his profile
KUDU COUNTRY has a similar problem
I don't want a 10yo absent 70 days
MILDMAY ARMS is too inexperienced
SPICE BOAT is unsafe with an absence
From a yard that almost never win with absent horses
HOLLYWOOD ALL STAR has been hurdling
Wouldn't be my first choice
No strong statistical problems with him
But he has the worst draw in the race
Go back to 2011 and all 10f races here
All riders with a Claim are 0-67 here drawn 11 or more
NOUVELLE ERE - Not first choice with an absence
EVACUSAFE LADY is an exposed mare
It worries me she's raced just once in 84 days
I want a fitter profile than that

Shortlist

ENGAI - Not keen he is 10 but not out of this
His jockey is only a 17 year old girl
She has won on this horse in a 1-25 career record

DEBIT - Profile fine and does tick boxes
But his jockey is a 17yo boy with just 2 previous rides

MISS LILLIE - Fit and running well
That gets her shortlisted but inexperienced pilot

FERRYVIEW PLACE - One of the obvious profiles
May just be better at shorter trips


Selection

£4 Each Way MISS LILLIE 6/1

£2 Win Bet FERRYVIEW PLACE 3/1-100/30




K e m p t o n 6.10

11/10 Mystic Blaze, 7/2 Bunbury
6/1 Howardian Hills, 8/1 Haabis, 16/1 Attitude Rocks
16/1 Dor´s Law, 20/1 Papou Tony, 25/1 Montycristo
33/1 I Can´t Stop, 50/1 Betsalottie.

This is an all aged maiden over a Mile

BUNBURY is an unraced 4yo
MYSTIC BLAZE is a 3yo with 4 runs

BUNBURY is one we can only guess about
Unraced 4 year olds are 1-33 in similar races
That winner (Mondlicht) was very decent
I'd much rather stay with the experienced 3yo

HOWARDIAN HILLS could improve
He is some way behind on the numbers
He has a 77 day absence as well
Not ruled out but plenty more to prove
I CAN´T STOP - Not as an unraced Chris Wall filly

MYSTIC BLAZE has a good profile
3 year old Males
4 career starts
Running 10-15 days ago
Beaten under 5 lengths last time
Horses with this profile finished W W

MYSTIC BLAZE should probably win
I think he may do if he stays a Mile
I know it looks like he does stay
But it is not a certainty that he will
He has to be part of any staking plan

ATTITUDE ROCKS blew the break on his debut
That run was excusable against fitter horses
He was only a 4/1 chance that day
Should improve a lot much as he needs to
My angles are not impressed in similar 8f maidens
3 year olds with 1 run
Absent between 10 and 90 days
Beaten over 10 lengths last time
I find a 0-66 record and Male 3yo's were 0-22
ATTITUDE ROCKS is therefore not safe
I wasn't blown away with him on tape either

MYSTIC BLAZE is my only sensible option
If he stays I think he will win
May be worth laying in running at 1.05 just in case
But around 6/4 he has to be the bet

Selection

MYSTIC BLAZE 6/4

Win Bet

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