0 Bet today
0 Negative
6 Previews

Only a couple of York races that anyone
should be betting in as most races there
are unsortable. We are just cruising right
now in a bland and safe place. Competent
rather than creative. I am not finding the
right kind of bets at the moment. It might
be time to put back the messages a little
to Noon to give me that little extra time.

I want to do something as we're drifting
aimlessly at the moment. Today doesn't
offer a bet I am confident enough about.

I might swap or chop a few things about
very soon to change the current dynamic.



No Staked Bet Today




T o d a y s M e s s a g e

I am still behind with Email replies again
so my apologies for this. Working through
them as fast as time allows at the moment.

The only bet at York I could highlight is this

Y o r k 3.40

SEVENTH HEAVEN 4/1 Each Way
Turret Rocks Saver Bet at 25/1



The bet I liked the bet is this one


Today's Best Bet

Fontwell 6.30

PIED DU ROI 7/4

Win Bet

I feel this is the best bet in the message
A little bit short to be staking though
When we have 3 chase debutants we can't judge





Daily Negatives

No Negative Today

Results of Negatives
27 correct bets from 38


T u e s d a y s R e v i e w

I know from experience that York can be savage
if it decides to bear it's teeth and I am glad I had
no highlighted bets on a very difficult opening day.

Island In The Sky started things very badly
Chances are the ground was too fast for her
Our 3 Choices could not nail the Acomb Stakes
The message was in difficult corner by that stage
Idaho them got a bit back
Sante also won easily are things were better
We managed only a Place in the Juddmonte
Highland Reel got us something back at least
Could have done with Torquay winning this last
Her defeat made for a disappointing overall picture



P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s


Y o r k 1.55

6/1 Danielsflyer, 6/1 Rainbow Mist, 6/1 Rusumaat
7/1 Miss Infinity, 8/1 Stormy Clouds, 9/1 Hemingway
10/1 Mr Hobbs, 12/1 Angel Down, 14/1 Savannah´s Dream
16/1 Perfect Madge, 16/1 Wedding Dress, 25/1 Our Greta
25/1 Stop The Wages, 33/1 Computable, 33/1 Dark Destroyer
33/1 Man About Town, 33/1 Perfect Symphony
40/1 Heir Of Excitement, 40/1 Tap Tap Boom.

This is a Sales race for 2 year olds over 6f
No interest at all
But my angles shortlisted last years winner
So I will try it again but not worth getting involved

Horses from Nurseries have to be avoided
You should oppose horses with 7 or more runs
Horses that wear Headgear should be opposed
Avoid horses that lost by 10 + lengths last time
Avoid Males from Maidens with 1 run
You want a horse that ran within 7 weeks
Avoid horses with 2-3-4 runs if they have not won before
Horses from 7f races are poor with 3 + runs
Horses winning maidens last time with 3 + runs are unsafe
This leaves us with these 3 horses this year
HEMINGWAY
PERFECT MADGE
STOP THE WAGES
Shouldn't really be in the message
Stab in the dark here

HEMMINGWAY 11/1

Each Way




Y o r k 3.40

7/4 Found, 4/1 Seventh Heaven, 6/1 Endless Time
13/2 Queen´s Trust, 12/1 Even Song, 14/1 Koora
16/1 Furia Cruzada, 25/1 Fireglow, 25/1 Harlequeen
25/1 Loving Things, 25/1 Turret Rocks
33/1 Pretty Perfect.

Yorkshire Oaks
Group 1 race over 12f for all aged fillies
Not a race I usually do or do well
Bland angles but give it a try this year

FOUND has the highest rating of 119
She has at least a 5lbs advantage over everything else
I have 2 problems with FOUND
She has 16 runs more than every other horse
Past winners had the following career starts
7 6 10 12 6 13 11 7 9 7 7 3 11 6
FOUND has 4 more runs than all winners since 2001
My other problem is her Draw in Stall 1

Look at York 12f races since 2010
Having between 8 and 17 runners
There were 67 of these races
Horses drawn 1 and 2 have a combined 1-120 record
Horses drawn 1 have a 0-59 record
That draw puts me off FOUND

QUEEN´S TRUST is drawn 2
That is not a very good draw
She only has 5 career starts as well
12 years since a horse won this with under 6 runs
That and the draw make her unsafe

HARLEQUEEN fails my breeding stats
FIREGLOW is too exposed for a 3yo
LOVING THINGS looks out of her depth
PRETTY PERFECT is way down the stable pecking order

ENDLESS TIME only has 1 run this season
Every other horse in the race has more
Look at past winners since 2001
They had the following runs that season
5 3 2 3 3 2 2 6 9 3 4 2 2 4
None have won with just 1 run that season
ENDLESS TIME is therefore not like any winners
FURIA CRUZADA doesn't offer enough
Horses like her from the Lancashire Oaks are 0-14

EVEN SONG is the Aidan O'Brien 3rd string
That is a problem and 5 runs is not the norm
She also ran badly last time out
I'd want more with 2 better fancied stablemates

KOORA was beaten 9 lengths last time
Only 1 past winner was beaten more than 4 lengths
Don't see enough I like
On Ground that may be a bit quick for her


Shortlist

TURRET ROCKS is worth considering at 33/1
She had the worst draw in the English Oaks
She may have needed the run last time

SEVENTH HEAVEN is a 3yo with 6 runs
She has 4 races this season as well
That is not a bad profile at all

Selection

SEVENTH HEAVEN 4/1

Each Way

Saver Bet on Turret Rocks 25/1






Y o r k 4.20

9/4 Abingdon, 11/2 Twitch, 6/1 Glamorous Approach
6/1 Tiptree, 13/2 To Eternity, 7/1 Anzhelika, 9/1 Pandora
12/1 Sagely, 20/1 Lustrous.

The Galtres Stakes is a Listed race for fillies over 12f

25 of the last 27 winners
Ran within 4 lengths of the winner last time
GLAMOROUS APPROACH has this problem
She also drops down from 2m and no winner did that
Horses that drop down in distance don't score well
They are just 1-29 in the past 18 renewals of this race
TWITCH does this and is badly drawn
Look at 12f races here with 8 or more runners
Since 2010 there have been 76 of these races
Horses drawn 1 are 0-67 in these 76 races
TWITCH is rejected on these angles

PANDORA - I'd have liked a better last run
25 of the last 27 winners ran better last time
SAGELY has low numbers
I feel she may need too much improvement

ANZHELIKA comes from a Handicap
4 of the last 5 winners did that so I respect her
They had 7 9 4 3 previous runs
ANZHELIKA only has 2 runs
A little on the inexperienced side
But has as much improvement as any of these
I just feel giving weight away is a bit unfair

TIPTREE needed the run last time
I opposed her last time because of that
ABINGDON beat Tiptree last time
I opposed them both in the Chalice Stakes
I like both their profiles with 1 concern
Horses that came from the Chalice Stakes are 0-19
It hasn't been a very good trial race so far
That is what puts me off both

TO ETERNITY comes from a maiden
We have had a lighter raced maiden winner in 2012
She needs to improve but almost certainly will
Should be hard to kick her out of the frame

Selection

TO ETERNITY 5/1

Each Way




F o n t w e l l 5.30

5/4 Spring Steel, 5/1 The Bay Bandit
5/1 Town Mouse, 6/1 Vexillum, 8/1 The Yank
10/1 Edlomond.

This is a 2m 1f Handicap Chase
SPRING STEEL has won his last 2 races easily
He will either win this
Or anything could win if he doesn't
Two runs ago he landed a gamble easily
After a long spell in the doldrums
It came after a Wind Operation and dropping mark
He followed up at Stratford last time out very easily
He has plenty of momentum at the moment
He meets some unconvincing profiles
Some not certain to be fit and others out of form
I would not want to oppose him on a hat trick bid

Selection

SPRING STEEL 11/8

Win Bet




H a m i l t o n 5.40

11/8 X Rated, 7/2 Bamber Bridge
7/2 Hee Haw, 10/1 Cool Run Girl,

6f Maiden for 2 year olds
Each of the 4 runners are unraced
That makes a preview rather risky
But In Paper there is only X RATED that appeals

BAMBER BRIDGE is sired by Dark Angel
I avoid this sires debutants over 6f or more
Unraced Dark Angel horses rarely win at 6f

HEE HAW is sired by Sleeping Indian
His unraced horses over 6f or more are 2-132
Those that raced on Grass just 1-91
Not a good record and I am against him
COOL RUN GIRL is very beatable on paper

That may pave the way open for X RATED

Selection

X RATED 10/11

Win Bet




F o n t w e l l 6.30

2/1 Pied Du Roi, 5/2 Unify, 5/2 Wyndcrest
8/1 Treacy Hotels Boy, 12/1 Milan Of Crystal
25/1 On Your Max.

This is a Novice Handicap Chase over 2m 5f

I like PIED DU ROI the topweight
If I look at lightly raced 6 year old chasers
Who ran well in a recent Handicap Chase
You find they score very well in these races
I watched his Worcester second on video
Did nothing wrong in a big field
He jumped safely and looked to have ability

He may well outclass this field

I looked at Chase debutants in similar races
None were aged 7 or more
ON YOUR MAX has this problem
He is from a weak stable and looks out of form

MILAN OF CRYSTAL is a mare having her Chase debut
UNIFY is a mare having her chase debut as well
They might win but they have a lot to prove
MILAN OF CRYSTAL is older than all Chase debutants
UNIFY is only a cheap Racing club owned horse

PIED DU ROI doesn't appear to have too much to beat
TREACY HOTELS BOY is a 9yo with an absence
Has a chance but no obvious case can be made

WYNDCREST ran well recently
My Breeding stats question his stamina
If you look at his sires National Hunt runners
His runners over 2m 3f or more are 0-60
WYNDCREST fails this 0-60 record
It would be wrong to say he doesn't stay
He ran a decent 2nd over a similar trip last time
May just have been outstayed though
PIED DU ROI may just have more stamina
And he was a better hurdler
And has far more improvement as a Chaser
WYNDCREST was also recently bought for £600
That has to undermine his chance

Selection

PIED DU ROI 7/4

Win Bet

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