0 Bet today
0 Negative
13 Races discussed


The first day of Glorious Goodwood and however
we end up with our betting at the end of the week
there is plenty of choice and so much to say there
is a danger of overcooking messages and looking
at too many races. I might have done that today.

I have decided against an account bet today
There are 13 previews which is a bit too many
I have nominated a best bet from the message
But it may just be spread too thinly
To take any one race more seriously than others


Today's Bet

No Official Bet




T o d a y s M e s s a g e

Heavy message today
I hope Goodwood has not overwatered
I think there is a danger I've overcooked things
I am fascinated by my first 3 previews all win bets

Yarmouth 2.20 - LADY OF YUE 7/4

Goodwood 2.35 - WAR DECREE 11/10

Goodwood 3.10 - DUTCH CONNECTION 9/4

LADY OF YOU looks a stone cold banker on paper
But my angles tell me not to assume that
So any temptation for a main bet is now ruled out
But on paper I will be fascinated to see if am right

I am expecting big things from WAR DECREE
But a non runner shortens him to 11/10
I don't want a main bet on DUTCH CONNECTION
Not with the risk of overwatering
And an unreliable stable as well
But I think combining these two horses
In an each way double may suit one or two of you
But none of these were account bet options

I feel the message should be competitive
There is some interesting National Hunt racing later


Todays Best Bet

I have to admit I hate this track
And I hate relying on Donald McCain as well
But I feel when all things are considered
I should make this horse the best bet today
Just not one I want to stake
I am a bit out of my comfort zone in these races
But I can not touch the other runners
And he has a good profile and I feel should win

Perth 8.30

NEFYN BAY 2/1

Win Bet






Daily Negatives

No Negative Today
Results of Negatives
27 correct bets from 37



M o n d a y s R e v i e w

If you watched the 7.50pm race last night and
the main bet then you will know exactly what I
am going to argue. RESTIVE was a text book
example of a horse that went off much too fast
and having been well clear he faded late which
was so obviously going to happen. He just got
lit up in first time blinkers and went off like a
scolded cat and we had no chance after a few
furlongs. One of those things I suppose much
as that is a bit annoying. There were 3 options
for bets. The Each Way double spread over 2
days started with a place so we need to find a
place for War Degree today to close that bet
without losing all the stake. EVERGATE was
the other option and he won easily which was
some comfort. He was well backed and might
have been too short for some of you to go for
each way. Either way he was the highlight on
a day we had a losing bet at a big price which
never gave us a proper run for out money as
he set a suicidal pace that killed his chances.



P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s





Y a r m o u t h 2.20

9/4 Theydon Bois, 5/2 Lady Of Yue
3/1 What A Party, 7/2 La Fritillaire, 20/1 Sakhra
25/1 Opus Too.

This is a low grade 2m handicap
I am in conflict with my statistics in this race

I like LADY OF YUE from a Class perspective
But they see her as underraced and short of runs
This race is partly about whether she can deliver
And whether some of her other rivals will stay this far

WHAT A PARTY has to prove he stays 2 miles
His sire has yet to breed a 2m winner as well

Neither has the sire of THEYDON BOIS
She has never been anywhere near this distance before
My breeding stats feel both are unsafe

SAKHRA doesn't seem to be offering much
LA FRITILLAIRE just seems slow

LADY OF YUE may well be different class
I like the fact She is guaranteed to stay
And is Topweight rated 63 and faces a 0-56 class field
You can argue She has not won since 2014
But that was only 19 runs ago
And most were in significantly higher grades
Her Racing Post Ratings look different class

My Statistics throw up doubts about LADY OF YUE
They would argue she is a 6yo mare
She has raced just 3 times this season
She is up in trip and has an absence
They would see LADY OF YUE as underraced
Now I could overrule them and go with her as an account bet
But in my heart of hearts I know my angles talk sense

On Paper this bet excites me from a class perspective
But if I ask myself can I trust LADY OF YUE to deliver
The Answer is no
I would not dream of selecting any other horse
Has to be the selection. I think she will win
But I'd just back off from an account bet on her

Selection

LADY OF YUE 7/4

Win Bet




G o o d w o o d 2.35

15/8 War Decree, 5/2 Boynton,
9/1 Isomer, 12/1 Thunder Snow, 16/1 Hakeem
16/1 Jackhammer, 16/1 Medieval, 16/1 Repton
25/1 Pleaseletmewin.

The Vintage Stakes is for 2yo's over 7f
It is a Group 2 race and two horses dominate

If you look at Racing Post Ratings
Past winners recorded these ratings when winning
107 110 109 112 108 114 107 112 115 114
Every winner recorded between 107 and 115

BOYNTON has a rating of 114
WAR DECREE has a rating of 112
The highest rating other than that
Is a Rating of only 99

So these market leaders are at least 13lbs clear
Both have ratings that would win many past renewals
That is why I would stay with one of these 2 horses

If we stay with Racing Post Ratings
Look at the best horses aged 2 in Europe
BOYNTON is the 2nd best horse in Europe
WAR DECREE is the 3rd best horse in Europe
So far only the Coventry Stakes winner is rated higher

BOYNTON beat WAR DECREE last time
But WAR DECREE is better off at the weights
And trained by the master
I made the case yesterday
For an each way double involving WAR DECREE
I think he will reverse the form and win today

Selection

WAR DECREE 6/4

Win Bet




G o o d w o o d 3.10

9/4 Dutch Connection, 9/4 Home Of The Brave
5/1 Birchwood, 7/1 Gifted Master, 8/1 Markaz
14/1 Buckstay, 20/1 Dream Dubai, 25/1 Tupi.

The Lennox Stakes is a Group 2 race over 7f
I will start with some Racing Post Ratings

Racing Post Ratings
7f races
Good to firm or faster

117 Dutch Connection
114 Buckstay
113 Markaz
112 Tupi
110 Buckstay
109 Buckstay - Tupi - Birchwood
108 Dutch Connection - Home Of The Brave
107 Dutch Connection - Markaz
104 Gifted Master
103 Buckstay
102 Tupi
101 Tupi
100 Buckstay

TUPI fails my breeding stats
His sire's 7f + runners in Group races are 0-24
Horses that came from 6f or shorter are 3-30
None of these were aged 3 or 4 though (0-16)
DREAM DUBAI has this problem aged 3 from 6f
MARKAZ -- No 4yo has won coming from 6f before
I am against the 6yo BUCKSTAY
No horse as old as 6 has won this race before
There were 7 winning 3 year olds in this race
These 3 year olds were all quite similar
They all had 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 career starts
No 3yo has won this race with 8 or more career starts
Those that tried had a 0-16 record
BIRCHWOOD is 3 and has 10 career starts
That is 3 more than any past 3yo winner
GIFTED MASTER has exactly the same problem
Neither 3 year old is close enough to a past winner

HOME OF THE BRAVE is rated 115
DUTCH CONNECTION is rated 115
They are joint top rated officially
HOME OF THE BRAVE's profile is fine
He is absent 59 days though
That's longer than every other horse
And longer than every other past winner as well
DUTCH CONNECTION has a decent profile
He may prefer this ground as well
If you look at the Racing Post Ratings table
DUTCH CONNECTION has a 3lbs advantage

My main fear here is the course being overwatered

Selection

DUTCH CONNECTION 9/4

Win Bet





Y a r m o u t h 3.30

100/30 Captain Colby, 5/1 Doctor Sardonicus
11/2 Gentlemen, 11/2 Merhoob, 7/1 Basil Berry
7/1 David´s Duchess, 10/1 Elronaq, 10/1 Yeeoow
25/1 Showtime Star, 33/1 Honcho.

This is a 6f handicap
Quality race for 0-95 rated horses

CAPTAIN COLBY comes from a 5f race
He has raced just twice this season
I have problems with that profile
I should point out that only a few days ago
A horse called Excellent George won with that profile
But It is not as simple as that
And CAPTAIN COLBY's profile is not safe enough
DOCTOR SARDONICUS has the same problem
ELRONAQ is only 3 and hammered last time
I can't see him as a safe choice
GENTLEMEN is back on the turf
That is not certain to be in his favour
I am open minded about him. He has the ability
But on Grass there are less riskier options
BASIL BERRY does look interesting in a Class 3
He is 0-17 in Class 2 races and this drop in class helps
Just not sure if he will deliver with 33 days off
Given he has raced just once since early March
I have to see him as underraced recently
My angles reject him and I agree
YEEOOW - I don't think he will have enough class
But I wouldn't talk him down with a very recent run

Possibles

DAVID´S DUCHESS is respected

MERHOOB could be the percentage bet
What I like about him is his last 2 numbers
2 Runs ago he ran a career best Racing Post Rating
Last time out he also achieved a career best
That swings it for me in a nasty open race

Selection

Low Stakes

MERHOOB 9/2

Each Way






G o o d w o o d 3.45

4/1 King Bolete, 6/1 Qewy, 8/1 A Soldier´s Life
8/1 Gold Prince, 9/1 Francis Of Assisi, 9/1 Notarised
10/1 Elidor, 10/1 Tawdeea, 12/1 Fun Mac, 14/1 Gang Warfare
16/1 Arch Villain, 16/1 Havana Beat, 16/1 My Reward
25/1 First Mohican.

This is a Class 2 Handicap over 14f
Goodwood has 15 renewals
There are 57 similar races elsewhere

None of the 57 winners were aged 8 or more
FIRST MOHICAN has this problem
He has the worst draw as well and is rejected
ARCH VILLAIN is 7 and older than ideal
Not for me with just 1 run in over 5 months
HAVANA BEAT hasn't shown enough this year
Only a couple of modest runs as well
He has downgraded stables as well
I just did not want to trust him

TAWDEEA comes from 10.5f
Horses aged 4 from 11f or shorter were 0-28
That puts me off him

A SOLDIER´S LIFE has raced once this year
If you look at horses with 1 run this season
Who have over 9 career starts
There is a modest 3-64 record
Those beaten over 2 lengths last time were 0-47
A SOLDIER´S LIFE fails this 0-47 record

FRANCIS OF ASSISI looks a bit underraced
He is 6 and has raced just once in 109 days
Not going to help him prove he stays this far
FUN MAC has run twice this year
Heavy defeats both times
Not a negative but can not match him to a winner
I'd have preferred more recently from him

KING BOLETE is 4 and won last time
Horses that won last time out were 3-59
They were 0-18 in this Goodwood race though
If you look at the 3 winners aged 4 that won last time
They had absences of 17 19 49 days
Those absent 20 + days like KING BOLETE were 1-38
That winner (Sun Central) came from a Listed Class race
KING BOLETE only comes from a Class 3 race
So I don't see a very safe profile here

KING BOLETE is 4 and comes from a 12f race
GOLD PRINCE is 4 and comes from a 12f race

If I look at 4 year olds
Who come from 12f races
And have absences of more than 22 days
I find a very worrying 1-87 record
The only winner (Maycocks Bay) was back in 2002
Since 2003 all 80 of these horses were beaten
That seals the deal
KING BOLETE is now not my selection
GOLD PRINCE is not my first choice either

QEWY is an exposed 5yo
He drops from 2m 4f to 1m 6f
That is a radical drop
When you consider he has just 1 run this season
Win lose or draw an unsafe profile

GANG WARFARE landed a hat trick a few months ago
Just 2 runs since May both were defeats
Not an easy profile to read
He looks to have a stiff handicap mark
But I don't have a strong angle against him

Shortlist

ELIDOR is an exposed 6yo
Absent 37 days not the safest of profiles
He was a very good 5th in this race last year
Beaten under a length off a rating of 106
This year runs off 105 so I would respect his chance
But he is small horse with a big weight and absence
You could say the same about him in last years race
And he still went very close to winning

NOTARISED is an exposed 5yo from a 12f race
Only 1 of the 57 winners had that profile
That was a seasonal debutant in this race last year
Doesn't leap off the page statistically
But he was a decent 6th in this race last year
He loves the course and likely laid out for the race

MY REWARD is 4 and drops from 2 miles
There were 8 winners that did this
They had 9 9 10 11 12 8 16 6 career starts
MY REWARD looks interesting with 12 runs
He is not unlike the 2014 winner of this race

Selection

£2.00 Each Way MY REWARD 20/1

£3.00 Each Way NOTARISED 87/1




G o o d w o o d 4.55

100/30 Best Solution, 7/2 Mazyoun, 9/2 Harry Angel
6/1 Rich And Famous, 7/1 Colonel Frank, 12/1 Parys Mountain
12/1 Salouen, 12/1 Tesko Fella, 20/1 Swag, 25/1 Five Star Frank
25/1 Sea Shack, 50/1 Poetic Principle.

This is a 2yo maiden over 6f for Male horses
Two very interesting angles in this race

Goodwood 6f Maidens for both sexes
Since 1999 there have been 28 of these races
Unraced horses have struggled
They have a miserable 1-105 record
The only winner was Misleading in 2014
We should oppose the unraced horses

Goodwood Maidens since 2011
Any Time of year over any Distance
Unraced horses
Drawn 8 or higher
There is a 0-152 record with these horses

These above 2 stats rule out the following horses
TESKO FELLA - FIVE STAR FRANK
POETIC PRINCIPLE - SWAG
RICH AND FAMOUS also fails both stats
He is hard to like unraced drawn 10
MAZYOUN is unraced
As unraced horses are just 1-105 here
I am going to oppose MAZYOUN
If you look at his sires unraced horses
None have yet won over 6f or more (0-11)
SEA SHACK has not achieved enough yet

COLONEL FRANK - Comes from a small stable
Starting 40/1 on debut worries me

SALOUEN - Probably a place is his more likely
But his profile is not dead
And he did have excuses last time

PARYS MOUNTAIN ran well in the Coventry
He was a 50/1 chance though and well beaten
I wasn't fully persuaded by him

HARRY ANGEL - Profile solid
Has the best Racing Post Ratings
I can live with the 80 day absence
But I prefer 1 other on pedigree
But feel he is a sensible saver

BEST SOLUTION interests me most
I think he has the best pedigree in the race
He was 3rd on his debut at Windsor
It is very hard to win there on debut drawn high
Only 1 male horse has done that drawn 10 or higher
That was in a 1-70 record when they meddles with the rail
BEST SOLUTION surely should not be as big as he is

Selection

£6 Win Bet BEST SOLUTION 7/1 +

£4 Win Bet HARRY ANGEL 11/8




G a l w a y 5.15

3/1 Oathkeeper, 4/1 Master Of Verse
4/1 Three Wise Men, 5/1 Penhill, 6/1 Hudson´s Bay
7/1 Derulo, 8/1 Gunner Mcgregor, 10/1 Billy´s Hope
33/1 Golan Diamond, 100/1 Its Pandorama.

2m Novice Hurdle

Bit uncomfortable with OATHKEEPER
Winning over 2m 4f just 13 days ago
Now dropping half a Mile
If you look at male horses aged 5 or more
Down from 2m4f in the last 24 days
All 29 were beaten
Those like OATHKEEPER winning last time were 0-5
Can not be a negative but uneasy about the profile
PENHILL was hammered 90 lengths 13 days ago
A lot more comfortable about opposing him
That said he broke a blood vessel last time
That raises an extra layer of doubt about opposing him
One of the reasons why I don't trust this race

THREE WISE MEN is not first choice
Just don't like the mix of absence and inexperience
BILLY´S HOPE is a 5yo mare and 2 of these won
Both ran within 2 weeks though
I won't risk her with a 79 day absence
DERULO - Think there are safer profiles

Shortlist

HUDSON´S BAY
MASTER OF VERSE
GUNNER MCGREGOR - Has a W W profile

I don't really understand the market here
I wasn't that confident about the race anyway
But I am going with so big priced options
Who have better profiles than others that are shorter

£2.50 Each Way GUNNER MCGREGOR 10/1

£1.50 Each Way HUDSON´S BAY 16/1

£2.00 Win Bet MASTER OF VERSE 7/1




G a l w a y 5.45

7/4 Briar Hill, 7/2 Draco, 5/1 Casual Approach
6/1 Tocororo 8/1 Theos Well, 10/1 Air Command
12/1 Ridestan, 16/1 Patsio, 25/1 Killdunne
50/1 Princess Lir, 66/1 Talk The Lingo
100/1 Generous Guest.

Beginners Chase over 2m 2f

Strange one this
BRIAR HILL is a high class hurdler
Has had injury problems though
Now a seasonal debutant having his Chase debut
Statistically I see him as a Neutral
That does not help Much

I am boxed into a corner here
I can't go with CASUAL APPROACH
I can't go with TOCORORO
Both are Gordon Elliot horses
We know he now has a 0-93 record at this meeting
TOCORORO had quite a good profile
But I will not forgive either that trainer stat

I ran DRAGO's profile
Horses aged 6 or more
1 Chase run in the last 3 weeks
More than 12 career starts
I found a 0-23 record
I don't like that profile enough
That stops me thinking of him as an e/w option
RIDESTAN and PATSIO are hard to fancy

AIR COMMAND probably won't have enough
THEOS WELL is a modest each way option
But in light of some of the above angles
I am more inclined to rely in BRIAR HILL

Selection

BRIAR HILL 11/8

Win Bet



G a l w a y 6.15

4/6 Eziyra, 5/2 Hydrangea, 8/1 Magen´s Moon
8/1 Pocketfullofdreams, 10/1 Dreamy Gal
12/1 Falling Leaves, 14/1 Introibo, 20/1 Plena
25/1 Awicompany, 25/1 Glenamoy, 33/1 Da Capo Dandy,
50/1 Steelyeyed, 66/1 Quincy Street, 100/1 Blaze Heart
100/1 Gifted Lady.

7f Maiden
2 horses dominate the market

EZIYRA is odds on at 8/11
HYDRANGEA is 5/2

I expected HYDRANGEA to have a weak profile
Running over 6f only 9 days ago
But if I look at all similar races
I surprisingly found 8 winners with her profile

That raised the obvious question
Should we bet HYDRANGEA each way

If there is a flaw in the favourite it is her draw
If I look at 7f races here since 2011
And horses that had under 4 career starts
Only 1 of them has won from Stall 10 or higher
That was a Classic winner (Legatissimo)

I don't want to commit too heavily to this bet
But it does seem the rational option
Rather than bet an odds on short drawn high

Selection

HYDRANGEA 5/2

Each Way





P e r t h 7.00

7/4 Castletown, 15/8 Tajseer, 9/2 Knocklayde Sno Cat
8/1 Misfits, 14/1 Badged, 20/1 Raleagh Mountain
33/1 Wide Awake, 50/1 Drummullagh Rocky
100/1 Son Of Feyan.

2m 4f Maiden Hurdle

I feel I have to oppose TAJSEER
But when I run look at the other options
There are several with confusing hard to read profiles
My angles can not give me a clear cut alternative

TAJSEER has to prove he can stay 2m 4f on soft
I questioned his stamina last time over 2 miles
His sire's National Hunt runners are 0-30 so far
This is not a Natural national hunt pedigree
Now he may become his sire's first hurdle winner
But until one does I would be very sceptical
That he could stay this far on softer ground
I didn't like BADGED enough with fitness doubts

If you look at 5 year olds
In Maiden Hurdles in July and August over 2m 1f +
Who are absent between 70 and 120 days
When having under 7 career starts
Starting under 50/1
You find a 4-7 record
That included winners at 33/1 (Lomitaar) 25/1 (Bold Exit)
MISFITS has this profile
They all had 1-2 previous hurdle runs
MISFITS has 3 hurdle runs so not an exact match
But surely close enough to be on the staking plan

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet MISFITS 100/30
£2.50 Win Bet CASTLETOWN 11/4

No idea about the staking here
I have had to guess
I may be better going each way
And I can't rule out Knocklayde Sno Cat
If I was having to bet in the race
I'd be more interested in a Match Bet
Oppose Tajseer in any match bet
And a place lay could be worth thinking about as well





Galway 7.50

11/4 Malinka, 13/2 Beat The Ballot, 7/1 Beau Satchel
8/1 Chestnut Fire, 8/1 Could Should Would, 9/1 Bainne
12/1 Strait Of Zanzibar, 14/1 Chillie Billie, 14/1 Fastidious
14/1 Mister Martini, 14/1 Mzuri, 14/1 Plough Boy
14/1 Severus, 16/1 Liberty Jack, 16/1 Tunnel Creek
20/1 Excelli.

Impossible handicap
But I should oppose the favourite
MALINKA is a 4yo filly
She has just 2 career starts
She has a 110 day absence

You feel nervous opposing Dermot Weld here
And I don't think many will be fancied against her
But the following statistic bothers me

Evert handicap since 2002
Turf only
Any distance.
Any Class of race
Any month of the year
If I look at 4yo fillies
Who have under 4 career starts
Who have raced that season
Who have an absence of 65 days or more
I find a 0-58 record
No filly has won with her profile anywhere
Not going to get dragged into a quagmire of a race
But I will watch her with interest
As statistically despite her trainer red hot at Galway
She really should get beaten on her profile

No Selection




W o r c e s t e r 8.10

7/4 Washed Ashore, 7/2 Hang ´em High
4/1 Doitforjoe, 11/2 Lets Go Dutchess, 8/1 Only A Tipple
12/1 Trakeur, 33/1 Maybe Feescari.

2m Maiden Hurdle

WASHED ASHORE gives me a problem
Statistically I should oppose him
Comes from a Bumper
He has a repulsive profile
The problem is his main 2 dangers are unraced
That throws the race wide open
I can only guess now
I can not make the favourite a negative because of that
Statistically there is no option but to oppose him
And 6yo debutants score very well when fancied
So I would split a £10 Bet this way

£8 Win Bet DOITFORJOE 9/4
£2 Win Bet HANG ´EM HIGH 5/1

Completely in the dark here though
Betting blind on 2 unraced horses





P e r t h 8.30

11/8 Son Of My Heart, 15/8 Nefyn Bay
5/1 Quito Du Tresor, 8/1 Sean Airgead
14/1 Formidableopponent.

2m 4f Handicap Chase
Lots can go wrong in a small field
But I should really oppose the favourite
SON OF MY HEART is 11
and he has raced just once since last August
His profile is vulnerable

QUITO DU TRESOR has a similar problem
He is 12 years old with just 1 run in 4 months

The best profile is NEFYN BAY
I really do not like trusting Donald MCCain

But if you look at horses aged 7
Coming from Novice Handicap Chases
Running within 2 weeks
Beaten under 20 lengths last time
Starting under 50/1
2 or more previous chase runs
You find a very respectable 9-29 record
Win lose or draw
Disappointing stable or not
Surely we are better off with this kind of profile

Selection

NEFYN BAY 2/1

Win Bet

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