1 Bet today
0 Negative
8 Previews


Epsom Derby day and that race is one of the
main priorities today. It is refreshing to have
a wide open Derby for the 1st time in a while.

It feels like a sensible 8 preview Saturday so
no heroics planned today. A calmer than usual
Saturday and messages now until Wednesday.

I'm going with a bet today. It's a selling hurdle
full of mules. Ours is also a Mule but this will
be one of 5 that have a chance and the reason
for the bet is simply based on the presumption
that a fit Mule may be able to beat unfit mules.
Whether he wins or gets hammered the bet is
based on a sound principle that often works.



Today's Bet

Hexham 1.30

IT´S A MANS WORLD 6/1

Each Way


13/2 Betbright
6/1 Bet365 Skybet SpBet VC
6/1 Stan J Corals Independants



T o d a y s M e s s a g e


I will start with the Derby

Epsom Derby Predictions

1) Idaho 16/1
2) Wings Of Desire 5/1
3) Harzand 12/1

These firms offer 1/4 the odds 4 places
Tote Paddy Power Betfred Corals
IDAHO is 16/1 with all 4 firms
He would be my each way selection

I would also be interested him in a smaller market
Betting without Wings Of Desire
IDAHO is 12/1 in this market

It is not an ambitious message today
One of those unusual Saturdays
Where only one horse was considered as a bet


Hexham 1.30

IT´S A MANS WORLD 6/1

Each Way


My biggest fear is the ground
Hard to know what it is or what he wants best
If we can overcome that and he runs to his ability
Then he will win
But as I said earlier win lose or draw
We have a bet based on a good principle
That fitness matters most





Daily Negatives

0 Negative Today
Results of Negatives
25 correct bets from 34

Negative System Bet Trial
Day 4 of 10
0 Horse to avoids today

I am going to have to leave the negatives today
I did the message in a different way
To accommodate a Derby preview
I haven't had a chance to look for negatives
I will extend the trial another day because of this


F r i d a y s R e v i e w

There were 14 previews yesterday which was quite
unusual. Overall I thought we did extremely well as
we ended up with a W L W L P W L W W P P L P L
record. Plenty of winners and placed horses as well.

I decided correctly to go each way with the main bet
and he placed in a race where 3 horses fought out a
close finish. I don't have any problem when we only
manage a place in an each way bet. The Negatives
in the race were spot on and although no excuses it
was a rough enough race and he went long odds on
in running and never looked like finishing unplaced.

The only other highlighted horse won easily. I feel
it was accurate and I didn't get many horses wrong
yesterday. It was a good work out and confirms my
suspicion I am reading things well without getting a
lot of luck or run of the balls which will soon change.





P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s



H e x h a m 1.30

5/2 Blue Bicycle, 11/4 Mighty Whitey
4/1 It´s A Mans World, 9/2 Classic Colori
13/2 Scorpions Sting, 33/1 Lady Ra
33/1 Sarafina, 33/1 Transluscent
33/1 Wannabe King.

This is a 2m Selling Hurdle
There are only 23 of these races in June
9 runners and just 5 can be fancied

BLUE BICYCLE looks wrong to me
He is 10 years old and has just 1 run since October
I would fail him on that angle
He has also just been sold cheaply for 4k

MIGHTY WHITEY is 10 absent 166 days
Horses absent more than 8 weeks have a 1-44 record
That winner won this race last year but was a 6yo

I would bet one of 3 horses each way
SCORPIONS STING is hard to read
He has been failing over fences
Just one run since January raises an eyebrow

CLASSIC COLORI is worth considering
Just one run since January as well though


Selling Hurdles since 2007
May June July
And Distance
Horses aged 8 or more
Only 1 run in the last 3 months
Under 17 previous Hurdle starts
There is a 1-66 record with these horses
BLUE BICYCLE fails this 1-66 record
CLASSIC COLORI fails this 1-66 record


IT´S A MANS WORLD - Has some good hurdle numbers
I will choose him because of experience backclass and fitness

If you look at the Number of recent runs these have
In the previous 4 months

MIGHTY WHITEY has 0
CLASSIC COLORI has 1
BLUE BICYCLE has 1
SCORPIONS STING has 1
IT´S A MANS WORLD has 4
And thats why he gets the vote


Selection

IT´S A MANS WORLD 6/1

Each Way

We will know our fate very early
Then the Derby tales over as the priority





E p s o m 2.00

9/4 Poet´s Word, 9/2 Cartago, 9/1 Banish
10/1 Medburn Dream, 10/1 Prince Of Arran, 12/1 Bathos
12/1 Dark Devil, 16/1 High Grounds, 16/1 Scarlet Dragon
20/1 Soldier In Action, 25/1 Champagne City
25/1 Gawdawpalin, 25/1 Percy Street, 33/1 Finelcity
40/1 Goodwood Zodiac.

This is a Class 2 handicap over 10 furlongs
Last years winner Stravagante bust 2 statistics
He bust a draw stat winning from stall 11
He also won with just 3 career starts
None before him had ever won this race with 3 runs
In fact since 1997 if you look at Epsom Handicaps
For 3 year olds over 9f or more at any time of year
Before last year all 52 horses with 3 runs had lost
So last years winner was a double stat buster
Gut feeling is the race is too hard this year anyway
But I would rather ignore last years result
And stay with the following guidance

1) Only consider horses with 4-11 career starts
2) Only consider horses drawn 12 or higher

Look at 10f races here with 10 or more runners
Since 2011 there were 20 of these races
Horses drawn 12 or more have a 0-28 record

I would therefore oppose these horses
BANISH - POET´S WORD - HIGH GROUNDS
GAWDAWPALIN - PERCY STREET
GOODWOOD ZODIAC - PRINCE OF ARRAN
I would also avoid DARK DEVIL
He fails my breeding stats
I would go with something not already mentioned

Shortlist

MEDBURN DREAM - BATHOS - CARTAGO

It is quite obvious POET´S WORD is fancied
Not my selection as he has 3 career starts
But the same connections bust this stat last year
And you know the horse won't be far away
That is why I would consider him place only
Around 4/5 that could well be a perfect saver
That is how I would stake a bet here

Selection

Split Stake

£5 Win Bet CARTAGO 9/2

£5 Place Bet POET´S WORD 4/5




H e x h a m 2.05

7/4 Keltus, 9/4 Mister Spingsprong
7/2 Gurkha Brave, 6/1 Go Odee Go, 14/1 Rock Of Leon
20/1 Quick Brew, 100/1 Brown Trix.

2m 4f Novice Chase

Two runs ago we backed KELTUS when he won
We backed him last time out when he was beaten 2nd
The soft ground beat him last time
I shan't repeat the long backstory about this horse
I have done this twice already
You can read it in old messages on the board if you want to
But he has had some very genuine excuses for defeats
I made some outlandish claims
That he could be Nicholl's Paddy Power Gold Cup horse
For me the Jury is out but he is much better than shown
I wouldn't oppose him in this race
He is a horse I think is worth following
I said that before and after his defeat last time
KELTUS is the only horse I could bet here

Selection

KELTUS 13/8

Win Bet






E p s o m 3.10

4/5 Postponed, 3/1 Found, 4/1 Simple Verse
14/1 Arabian Queen, 20/1 Second Step, 40/1 Star Storm
100/1 Master Carpenter, 100/1 Roseburg.

The Coronation Cup is a Group 1 over 12f

This can be divided into 3 seperate Groups
First of all the 4 rank outsiders
None of those offer too much

Then POSTPONED the favourite who has 70 days absence
Finally the 4yo Fillies
FOUND - SIMPLE VERSE- ARABIAN QUEEN

Fillies aged 4 have struggled
Since 1992 they have a 0-31 record in this race
Only one 4yo filly has won this since the mid 1980's
That was In The Groove in 1991
So I could ditch these fillies and side with Postponed
I don't really want to do that
POSTPONED is absent longer than any past winner
Who had a run that season and he is odds on after all
I think FOUND is one of the best fillies in training
I would much rather bet her each way at the prices
Hard for her to win but it looks the percentage bet

Selection

FOUND 100/30

Each Way





E p s o m 3.45

7/1 Duke Of Firenze, 7/1 Maljaa, 10/1 Kimberella
12/1 Caspian Prince, 12/1 Harry Hurricane, 12/1 Hay Chewed
12/1 Monsieur Joe, 14/1 Boom The Groom, 14/1 Roudee
14/1 Seeking Magic, 16/1 Mukaynis, 20/1 Humidor
20/1 Normal Equilibrium, 25/1 Green Door, 25/1 Lathom
25/1 Secretinthepark, 33/1 Blithe Spirit
33/1 Sandfrankskipsgo.

I don't do the Epsom Dash anymore
You can not trust the draw here
And it is hard enough without extra complications
I don't like many at the front of the market
I have some old angles "On Ice" for this race
Being stored for a time I decided to do the race again

I can tell you last time out winners are 0-34 in this race
I would not go with Duke Of Firenze because of that
The same applies to Harry Hurricane
Maybe the answer here is a combination Lay
Just lay half a dozen horses at a short combined price
I would suggest Harry Hurricane and Duke Of Firenze
I'd throw in Hay Chewed as a 5yo with 1 run this year
I'd throw in Roudee and Humidor
Horses drawn 10-11-12 never win these days
I'd add Boom The Groom because of his absence
Caspian Prince is added to the lays with 100 days off
If you laid every horse mentioned here to lose £100
You would end up with short price about any winning
You would win about £50 if they all got beaten
You would lose about £67 if any of the negatives win
That is what I would do if forced to have a bet

The List of "Positives" would be these

NORMAL EQUILIBRIUM is a positive
MALJAA - Identical to the 2007 winner
KIMBERELLA - Keep him on side
MUKAYNIS is also a positive

No Selection





E p s o m 4.30

9/2 Us Army Ranger, 9/2 Wings Of Desire
7/1 Cloth Of Stars, 7/1 Ulysses, 10/1 Deauville
12/1 Harzand, 12/1 Moonlight Magic, 14/1 Port Douglas
16/1 Idaho, 16/1 Massaat, 20/1 Red Verdon
25/1 Across The Stars, 25/1 Algometer
25/1 Humphrey Bogart, 40/1 Shogun
100/1 Biodynamic.

I like to look at the Derby via historical numbers
I like to compare the standard against the past
Look at every Derby winner since 1999
Their lifetime best Racing Post Ratings were these

123 122 112 121 118 114 124 121
121 120 119 120 119 119 119 115 118

The last 17 winners all had a Racing Post Rating of 112 +
The lowest rating was Ruler of the World (112) in 2013
The next lowest was Workforce (114) in 2010
15 of the last 17 winners achieved 118-124 ratings
Therefore I would prefer a R.P.R of at least 112

Only 6 Horses have achieved this benchmark

Wings Of Desire - Massaat - Deauville
Harzand - Port Douglas - Cloth Of Stars

US ARMY RANGER has not managed that
He has a Racing Post Rating of only 109
He is the least experienced horse in this race
He never raced as a 2 year old
The last winner that did that was 1993 and he had 3 runs
The last winner over 12f here to win drawn 15 oir more
Was Snow Fairy back in 2010
US ARMY RANGER has a bad draw

MOONLIGHT MAGIC has raced 4 times
His best Racing Post Rating is 109
That is 3lbs lower than all recent winners
On the plus side his sire has bred 2 Derby winners
He has brilliant connections as well
But the last horse to win this race
With numbers as low as him was High Rise in 1998
MOONLIGHT MAGIC is also drawn 1
59 races here since 2006 with 10 + runners
Horses drawn 1 have a 0-59 record in them
I don't see him overcoming that

RED VERNON has only achieved a 107
He is hard to fancy coming straight from a Handicap
His sire has never bred a Group 1 winner in the Uk
His Draw in Stall 16 is a massive negative too

HUMPHREY BOGART has a Racing Post Rating of 105
That is far too low when you consider he has 8 runs
Past winners had the following career runs
2 4 2 3 4 2 4 7 3 5 3 3 3 5 3 4 5 3 7 2 1
HUMPHREY BOGART would be the most exposed winner
Since Erhaab in 1994 and he had a R.P.Rating of 126
If you look at the sires winners over 12f and more
None have won in Listed or Group Class yet
HUMPHREY BOGART could have been better drawn too

ULYSSES only has a Racing Post Rating of 99
Thats 13lbs lower than all past winners since 1999
He only beat a field of unraced horses last time
His profile is fine but his numbers are not
It took him 3 runs to win his maiden as well
Lovely prospect but needs to improve greatly

ACROSS THE STARS has lost 3 of his 4 runs
His Best Racing Post Rating of 104 isn't enough
SHOGUN is outclassed
BIODYNAMIC is outclassed

ALGOMETER doesn't have the numbers
He has a good profile of 4 runs and 2 this year
Pour Moi and Sinndar had similar profiles
He is only 3lbs behind on the Numbers
Could be worth turning a blind eye to that
After all it could be a bad year
Connections are on record about the track
They have said they worry it may not suit him

MASSAAT was 2nd in the Guineas
That puts him Top on Racing Post Ratings
He may not have the Breeding to win a Derby
The main worries for me are trainer and stamina
His Trainer is still very inexperienced
He needs to condition this horse to win at 12f
To step up half a mile in distance
Yet he's never had a runner beyond 10f in a short career
I assume this is an Art and not something very simple
He has to get him to peak for 2 Group 1's in 5 weeks
Theres a reason why this race is won by top class stables
He might win but I am not convinced

DEAUVILLE has 5 runs and 1 this year
The same profile as Sir Percy in 2006
That horse had achieved more though
DEAUVILLE has lost his last 3 races now
The biggest concern has to be his class
Where he stands in the Ballydoyle pecking order
I don't think you can presume he will stay
He may be a Galileo but his dam only won over 5f


Shortlist

PORT DOUGLAS has 6 runs and 1 this year
The last 4 winners to have 6 or more runs
Did all have 2 runs that season
His Numbers are just good enough to shortlist
But I would have liked a second run this year
And he has only won 1 of his last 5 races
Shortlisted on his numbers
But I prefer one of two others more

HARZAND has 3 runs and 2 this season
Racing post Rating of 114 is enough to qualify
He won a recognised trial in the Ballysax
4th Best on the Numbers after only 3 career starts
His Father won the Derby
He has to be considered a lively outsider
He has a very good chance of staying
Initially he was thought of as an Irish Derby horse
That raises concerns about the track
This is a big horse and it could be a problem
My Main 2 objections are these
If you look at the Racing Post Ratings
Of past winners on their 2yo debuts
You find almost all have ratings of 82 or more
They were 86 88 92 87 0 96 88 94 88 82 92 88
HARLAND only managed a 71 on his debut
His second run was onl a rating of 98
He is playing catch up in my view
And he comes here after 2 runs on Heavy ground
That doesn't strike me as ideal either

WINGS OF DESIRE has good enough numbers
Brilliant Trainer and rule out at your peril
One of two things do bother be
He was unraced as a 2 year old
It is 23 years since that happened
I also don't feel he is a certain stayer
His is a full brother to Eagle Top
I opposed his brother over 12f recently
I don't think he stays this far
I think his 12f win was a falsely run race
You can't fail a horse on the failings of his brother
But it does worry me a bit
His Sire Pivotal has 2 Group winners over 12f
That was Sariska winning the English and Irish Oaks
There has been some uncertainty as to the track
Some Judges are not certain he is an Epsom horse
And this is his 4th run of the season
Look at the number of runs past winners had a 3yo's
1 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 2 3 2 1
Having 4 runs in under 2 months is an issue
The last winner that did that was Quest For Fame
That was a bad year and it was 26 years ago
I remember it as I was there
And went down on the Jackpot in the last leg !

CLOTH OF STARS has 6 runs and 2 this year
He deserves maximum respect from Andre Fabre
One little issue I have with him
Is that if you look at past winners
Who had 5 or more career starts
You find 8 winners since 1991
These 8 winners had the following R.P.Ratings
125 117 126 119 121 118 119 120
CLOTH OF STARS has only managed a 113
Should he have achieved more by now ?
He will stay though and is safely shortlisted

IDAHO has a Racing Post Rating of 111
Ideally I would want a rating of 112
But I can forgive him that
It is only a very small 1lbs difference
And this is a horse that has had excuses

He won first time out over a Mile as a 2yo
That was a strong Racing Post Rating
He was weak in the market and said to need the run
Did nothing wrong hacking up that day

You have to forgive him his defeat next time
He went from a Maiden to a Group 1
That was in France over 10 furlongs
It was very soft ground just 18 days after his debut
IDAHO started 6/4 favourite for that race
If you look at every 2yo sired by Galileo
And look at how many of these
Won Listed or Group races over a mile or more
When having under 3 career starts
When Racing on soft or heavy ground
You can only find 1 winner
Kingsbarns won a Mile Group 1 after 1 run
No Galileo 2 year old has done it over 9f
No Galileo 2 year old has done it over 10f or more
When having under 3 career starts
IDAHO had to do it over 10 furlongs
In a Foreign country so quickly after his debut
No 2yo sired by Galileo had ever done that before
That tells me he had a genuine excuse

His first run this season was in the Ballysax
He was not fancied that day
He needed the run as many from his stable do
IDAHO recorded a Racing Post Rating of 111 that day
Thats pretty good first time out on heavy ground
That was his 3rd career start
If you look at every horse in this race
And look at their first 3 career starts
Only 3 horses in this race
Managed a Racing Post Rating of 111 or more
On the first 3 runs of their career
The others were Harzand- Massatt - Wings Of Desire
After only 3 lifetime starts
IDAHO had the 4th best numbers in the race at the time
You would expect Natural improvement on his 4th start
That was in the Derrinstown
IDADO was badly positioned in a Muddling race
He finished fast but was given far too much to do
Don't forget he started favourite for that race
He has a great draw today
In a wide open race he looks worth a bet

Selection

IDADO 16/1

Each Way



C u r r a g h 4.50

7/2 Camellia Japonica, 5/1 Ace Of Diamonds
5/1 Bubblesontherise, 5/1 Short Stacked, 6/1 Roseisarose
7/1 Flowerhill Nova, 14/1 King Tout, 16/1 Changed Times
16/1 Idlers Dream, 25/1 Pick Of Any, 33/1 Sarakova.

This is an all aged maiden over 6f
We can only take this race so far
But it comes to a surprising conclusion

CAMELLIA JAPONICA has a weak profile
She is a filly dropping from 8f to 6f
With just 1 run this season no winners did the same
CHANGED TIMES has not shown enough
BUBBLESONTHERISE is a 3yo filly
She has 1 career start down from a 7f race
Similar fillies with her profile and a recent run are 1-37
The only winner like her was a 66/1 shock years ago
BUBBLESONTHERISE would not be my first choice
Neither would unraced filly ROSEISAROSE
SHORT STACKED should have a chance
Suspect a place is more likely but he is respected

FLOWERHILL NOVA has to be respected
I#m not have chosen Stall 1 given the choice
But he could play a role in the staking

Selection

ACE OF DIAMONDS comes out very well
He has raced once and that was 76 days ago
He missed the break that day finishing 10th

Male horses aged 3
1 career start
Running over 8f in that race
Absent 58-99 days
5 horses had this profile
They finished W W W WW
None have tried since 2010 (Ritual)
But all 5 that tried have won
ACE OF DIAMONDS has this W W W W W profile

That profile makes sure he is selected
I would probably use 60-70% of my stake on him
Leave room for s saver somewhere down the line
We have no idea if this horse is fit or has ability
His profile though is W W W W W and fascinating

Selection

£6 Win Bet ACE OF DIAMONDS 8/1

£4 Place Bet FLOWERHILL NOVA 11/10



C u r r a g h 7.30

9/4 Big Ben, 11/4 Mutadaffeq, 100/30 Stellar Mass
13/2 Sandstorming, 13/2 Treasure Chest, 14/1 Miss Montana
66/1 Belarusian, 100/1 Duffys All Set.

This is a maiden over 12f
4 past renewals
The winners had 3 15 3 3 career runs
BIG BEN is unraced
TREASURE CHEST is unraced
Both are Aidan O'Brien trained
Both are sired by Galileo
These types can and do win these races when unraced
So I can not make either a negative
But I would rather look elsewhere
SANDSTORMING is unsafe
His sire has never bred a 12f winner before

MUTADAFFEQ ran once last year
I ran his profile and looked at seasonal debutants
I saw enough to make him a positive
But the profile is nothing special

STELLAR MASS has the best profile
Bitter sweet with him really
He has the best numbers and best profile
But his Numbers do seem to be regressing
Maybe that solid will stop back on fast ground
But I wouldn't be sure.
I would not trust him now for any staked bet
But I would include him in any staking plan here

Selection

STELLAR MASS 5/1

Each Way

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