0 Bet today
0 Negative
5 Previews


5 previews
The best I can hope for today
Is 5 solid races that produce a profit
I want to Highlight 3 of these 5 previews
Some interesting races to consider
I would have had an account bet today
But 2 non runners in the 5.40 have killed that bet



Today's Bet

No Staked Bet





T o d a y s M e s s a g e


3 Highlighted Bets today

There is an odds on favourite in the Epsom 4.20
That I think could be on the "bounce"
By that I mean a horse that has had a very hard recent run
After a very long absence
And who may not have had enough time to recover


I feel like I am on the "Bounce" as well today
Yesterday I had a "hard message"
Having had a long two day break without messages
And I wonder if I may be subject to the Bounce today
And may have a weaker message because of it
I was fresh as paint yesterday but knackered today
I know I will be fine tomorrow
So I am wondering if I am "On the Bounce"
It feels like I am so we will soon find out


I would have had a staked bet today
But 9 runners has turned into 7 runners
I had planned an each way bet and saver

Hamilton 4.20

£8 Win Bet PICKS PINTA 5/1

£2 Win Bet PUSHKIN MUSEUM 4/1

Had there been 8 runners
I'd have gone £4 Each Way PICKS PINTA 5/1
And had a £2 saver on PUSHKIN MUSEUM 4/1
But I have lost the each way option
So it has to be the above Win Bet and a saver now
Less safety in that bet of course
So I shan't bother staking it as a bet now


Goodwood 1.50

DUBARA 11/4-3/1

Each Way

I do like this bet
She is not a big horse which I don't like
She has 2 main dangers and I like both
So without a strong negative against her
And with the price shorter than I was hoping for
Much of the value has gone from the bet
DUBARA has been on my radar for a while
I feel she is worth an each way bet even at 11/4-3/1


Epsom 4.20

£8 Win Bet FANDANGO 5/2

£2 Win Bet LE TISSIER 5/1

Now the horse that may be "On the bounce"
This is the odds on favourite Alsacienne 10/11
She may well win and prove my theory is wrong
But I don't want her on the outsider in a 4 horse race
So I am staking bets on the 2nd and 3rd favourites


These above 3 bets all interest me

If I could go each way in the 5.40 Hamilton
I would have made that my best bet and staked it
But I like the 3 bets as much as each other really

I don't want to stake the FANDANGO bet
Based only on a theory
And I simply wont risk that stable with a staked bet

Maybe DUBARA should be the main bet today
Probably the safest bet on the three
Albeit knowing we are being shaved a bit on prices


So Happy with today's 5 previews
Especially as Tuesdays are the weakest day of the week
And I feel like I could be on the Bounce myself







Daily Negatives

No Negative Today

Results of Negatives
27 correct bets from 38



F r i d a y s R e v i e w

Happy enough with yesterdays results given it was
a Bank Holiday and I started the message far later
than usual. It went W W W L W P L and whilst one
of those winners came courtesy of the stewards we
were pretty consistent all day and the only losers in
the message were not far away. Would have been a
better day if the highlighted bet had won but sadly
that was one of the only 2 losers in the 7 previews.




P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s



G o o d w o o d 1.50

9/4 Nathania, 9/2 Dubara, 9/2 For The Roses
5/1 Pacofilha, 6/1 Curtsy, 6/1 Desert Water
33/1 Lady Valdean, 50/1 Prairie Light.

8f Maiden for 2 year old fillies
Looks like 3 runners stand out

I don't like any of the other runners
PACOFILHA was only a 50/1 chance last time
He has unplaced in all 3 runs and this may be too warm
DESERT WATER will do well to win this first time out
Too many strong prospects with powerful credentials
I feel the same about unraced filly CURTSY

Shortlist

NATHANIA - Once raced sire by Nathaniel
FOR THE ROSES - Once raced sire by Nathaniel
DUBARA has 3 runs

Early to read anything into the sire Nathanial
I see both his runners as Positives
No surprise if either of these horses win

I also like DUBARA here
Her Racing Post Ratings are 64 73 78
That's progressive and she has had excuses
She was not fit in either of her opening two runs
Paddock Watchers suggested she lacked fitness both runs
She is also a late May foal
And she was clearly not ready to win on her first 2 runs
DUBARA may have gone off too fast in that 2nd run
I fancied her last time but was scared of the winner
She was a good second to a decent horse last time
There was a big gap back to the 3rd horse
I like her each way around 4/1
I like all three market leaders here
Which is a shame but I see these dominating
I am giving DUBARA another chance

Selection

DUBARA 3/1

Each Way



Epsom 2.00

5/2 Act Of Freedom, 11/4 Suffragette City
4/1 Kodiac Khan, 6/1 Ivor´s Magic, 10/1 Fair Power
10/1 Spiritofedinburgh, 14/1 Cj Parker, 20/1 Kings Heart.

7f Nursery

If you combine horses coming from 5f races
When absent more than 38 days
You find a weak 1-50 record
That sole winner won off a mark of 47
FAIR POWER has to try and win off 74
That's why he would not be my choice

CJ PARKER hasn't done enough
KINGS HEART is too far behind on the numbers
IVOR´S MAGIC won a seller last time
Not a safe profile as a filly
I can't match her to a winner
And horses of either sex winning sellers last time
Had a 0-19 record so I don't feel she is safe enough
SPIRITOFEDINBURGH - Too risky from weak sire

Shortlist

KODIAC KHAN - Like 1 winner

ACT OF FREEDOM - Profile is fine

SUFFRAGETTE CITY has the better profile

Selection

£6 Win Bet SUFFRAGETTE CITY 100/30

£2 Win Bet ACT OF FREEDOM 3/1

£2 Win Bet KODIAC KHAN 5/1





G o o d w o o d 3.35

11/4 The Wagon Wheel, 3/1 Bee Case, 9/2 Rajar
6/1 Paco´s Angel, 8/1 Twizzell, 12/1 Miss Sugars
12/1 Sea Of Snow, 16/1 Camargue, 25/1 Texas Katie.

Fillies Nursery over 6f
This is a Class 2 Nursery
Only 22 of these races in August and September

21 of the 22 winners had 6 or fewer runs
TEXAS KATIE with 8 runs may be too exposed
CAMARGUE with 8 runs also looks too exposed
If you look at horses from Pattern races
There is a modest 1-38 record
The only winner was in a small field race
I don't see these horses as having a safe profile
TWIZZELL has this profile and looks unsuitable
RAJAR also comes from a Pattern race
She is hard to rule out given her class
But her profile is not safe
She has topweight and is not a big horse

Some of these have unsatisfactory profiles
Horses from 6f handicaps
Beaten last time
4 or more career starts
Horses with this profile were just 1-35
Those absent longer than 9 days were 0-26
If you look at horses from any Nursery
When beaten last time and over 3 runs
You find a 3-84 record
Those absent more than 13 days were 0-60
SEA OF SNOW shares these 0-26 and 0-60 profiles
MISS SUGARS shares these 0-26 and 0-60 profiles
PACO´S ANGEL also shares these 0-26 and 0-60 profiles

THE WAGON WHEEL has 2 runs
There were 2 winners with 2 career starts
Both winners came from maidens though
THE WAGON WHEEL comes from a handicap
That means she is not like a winner
It is a very unorthodox profile in a 6f Nursery

BEE CASE won a 6f maiden last time out
Similar horses with 3 career starts
And a recent run had a 1-7 record
BEE CASE is like a winner
She has one of the safest profiles

Selection

BEE CASE 11/4

Win Bet





E p s o m 4.20

Evs Alsacienne, 11/4 Fandango
5/1 Le Tissier, 8/1 Jupiter Custos
10/1 Deluxe.

This is a 12f handicap

ALSACIENNE may be the best long term prospect
But I can not bet her at a short price today
She is only a 3yo filly
She raced 7 days ago
That was her first run in 10 Months
There must surely be a case for her to bounce
This comeback run could be too soon
I have ran her profile and it was complicated
No horse has won a similar race like her
But not that many have tried to be fair
I'd see her as Unproven at best
She is well bred and may take it all in her stride
But there are doubts about her profile and preparation

DELUXE - Doubt he will improve his 0-23 record
Looks an unlikely stayer to me
JUPITER CUSTOS was 2nd yesterday over 12f here
He is not really bred to stay 12f
If he had not raced yesterday
I'd have marked him down as a doubtful stayer
But yesterdays run could make a difference
May not have been a genuine test yesterday

LE TISSIER has a chance without inspiring me
Not a big type and no obvious scope to improve much
But comes here off a career best albeit a modest one

FANDANGO has the best profile
Last time out winning 3 year old
I find the stable hard to read an unreliable
But on his profile he is the clear choice

Selection

£8 Win Bet FANDANGO 5/2

£2 Win Bet LE TISSIER 5/1





H a m i l t o n 5.40

7/2 Napoleon Solo, 9/2 Picks Pinta
9/2 Pushkin Museum, 5/1 Slim Chance
11/2 Diamonds A Dancing, 10/1 Reflation
16/1 Pabusar, 33/1 Studio Star.

This is a 6f Amateur Riders race
In August and September
There are only 9 of these Amateur races

All 9 winners had 2 things in common
They all had at least 9 career starts
They also ran within the previous 16 days
Those that failed to run within 16 days were 0-29
Only 3 horses have that profile today

REFLATION
PICKS PINTA
PUSHKIN MUSEUM

Not much else to go on
You wont go far wrong in these races
With horses that have very fit profiles

There are others with problems to overcome
DIAMONDS A DANCING drops from 8f to 6f
Years since he last raced over this far
NAPOLEON SOLO is a seasonal debutant
He might win but surely he is risky because of that
He is still inexperienced as well
And moving stables for just 5.5k suggests limitations
REFLATION looks beatable with an inexperienced pilot
PABUSAR is 8 and absent 41 days
Not ideal for a horse that's struggling anyway
SLIM CHANCE is a 7yo mare
She has to come from a 5f race and over 4 weeks ago
I have looked at all 6f Amateur riders handicaps
Run at any time of year
There are 66 of these races
If I look at Mares from 5f races
Those aged 5 or more were 0-26
None have done it at any time of year
SLIM CHANCE has that to overcome

Happy with this shortlist
PICKS PINTA
PUSHKIN MUSEUM
Either could win

Selection

£8 Win Bet PICKS PINTA 5/1

£2 Win Bet PUSHKIN MUSEUM 4/1
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