0 Bet today
0 Negative
13 Races Discussed

Start of a New week and this one should be back
to normality after last weeks National cabarets.

The schedule this week looks very ordinary and
that's exactly what I want to get back into a good
rhythm and to produce some interesting statistics.

I prefer the National Hunt cards today as we do
have a few decent angles. One of the things lost
last week in all that drama was the competition
we were going to run with the donated prize fund
from the English National competition. It passed
me by and I forgot all about it so we will need to
reschedule another of these reasonably quickly.


Today's Bet

No Official Bet

We should start having more bets now
We will have some this week
I was so close to a bet today
But that was an each way double
Or a variation of that bet staked differently
In the end I decided to stay off the account
But happy with the message and the choice today


Todays Best Bet

This Bet is Not Staked
But I think it is worth a bet
Assuming all 8 run in the 1.50pm

Newton Abbot 1.50 - Muffins For Tea 7/4

Huntingdon 5.40 - Late Night Lily 5/2

Each Way Double






T o d a y s M e s s a g e

13 Previews on a Monday will raise some eyebrows
The first Possible Staked bet I found has been spoilt
Two non runners have killed the price
That horse is Baadi in the Windsor 4.50
Now only 4/6 that is now an unacceptable price

Pontefract is not a track I completely trust
I do have some interesting angles here
Low key stuff and nothing I can fully commit to
These races provide small fun bets to fill the message
But I do see the races there as speculative ones
Don't have your biggest stakes here


Newton Abbot 1.50

MUFFINS FOR TEA 7/4

I do quite fancy this horse
8 runners and 5 of these look no hopers
Looked a perfect each way burglary race
One of the possible problems is a non runner
I would love to bet him each way 5/2
That price will now not be available.
He has been backed from 9/4 to 7/4
Politically not an easy bet to stake on the account
I could go win only with no safety net
I could use him in a split stake bet with another horse
Or as a dreaded each way double


Hexham 2.00

WAZOWSKI 6/1 Each Way

1/4 the Odds
Only 2 Places

Dodgy frame to this race
Probably 15% short of account bet strength
But l think he has a chance against a 4/9 favourite


Huntingdon 5.05

£3.50 Each Way WILL O´THE WEST 7/1
£3.00 Win Bet BOARD OF TRADE 9/4

Board Of Trade's small size relegates him to saver
I am in two minds about Will O´the West
Pulled up last time. I hate the stable as well
But a remarkable profile that is hard to ignore
Not sure about my staking here
But this was one of my more interesting races


Huntingdon 5.40

£8.50 Win Bet LATE NIGHT LILY 5/2
£1.50 Saver Bet PERSIAN BREEZE 7/1

This has to be one of my best races
Late Night Lily has a W W W W profile
All his rivals bar Persian Breeze have unsafe profiles
Mind you I fancied her last time in a 4 runner race
He was beaten by a Bumper horse
That horse has come out and won since
My angles say "look no further"
But can it really be as straight forward as that ?
I think we have to have Persian Breeze as a saver
To be honest despite a 0-20 profile
I think there is a case for Persian Breeze to be the main bet
I could have gone £3.50 each way 7/1
And had a £3 Saver on Late Night Lily
Therein lies the dilemma in the race


Todays Best Bet

Newton Abbot 1.50 - Muffins For Tea 7/4
Huntingdon 5.40 - Late Night Lily 5/2
Each Way Double


I was considering these bets on the account

Newton Abbot 1.50 - Muffins For Tea 7/4
Huntingdon 5.40 - Late Night Lily 5/2
Each Way Double

Then I considered the same horses with different staking

£3 Win Bet Muffins For Tea 7/4
£3 Win Bet Late Night Lily 5/2
£2 Each Way Double on Both horses

Then I considered an each way single

Late Night Lily 5/2 Each Way

Couldn't decide how I wanted to play it
I also wanted to factor in a saver in this race
And somehow get a small bet on Persian Breeze
So I decided to just leave all the options off the account




N e g a t i v e s

No Negative Today

Results of Negatives
22 correct bets from 29





S a t u r d a y s R e v i e w

Sunday's message was excellent
That was the one that said "No Message Today"
A normal message would have been a flop yesterday
The first race at Navan went wrong
I would have opposed the 3yo winner there
I'd have got very little right elsewhere
I made a good decision not to send a message


A quick look back at the Saturday message which
was mainly about the Scottish National. In the end
MILBOROUGH finished a creditable 7th and our
second choice MILANSBAR finished 9th. I came
away thinking that MILBOROUGH ran a superb
race when you consider that hindsight suggests he
probably didn't have the legs to cope with several
of the younger horses on drying ground. I think he
was found out by the ground. Had that been heavy
ground then he could well have won that I think it
was probably too fast for him. If that is correct he
ran a very good race and I felt he was a fair shout.

If they ran the race again next week
And the ground was Heavy
I'd have the same bet and probably stake it as well



P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s



N e w t o n A b b o t 1.50

5/4 Amanto, 2/1 Muffins For Tea, 11/4 Meme´s Horse
33/1 Executive Prince, 33/1 Staunton, 50/1 Fille Des Champs,
50/1 Wallawallabingbang, 100/1 Pomicide.

2m 2f Maiden Hurdle

3 serious runners
5 rank outsiders

AMANTO is a Paul Nicholls favourite
Not impressed with his profile
Coming from a flat race is not a good sign
In all maiden hurdles in April short of 2m 6f
Horses that had already had experience over hurdles
But who raced on the Flat last time were 0-62
You can fancy him on one run at Taunton
But I don't like what I see here
Nicholls daughter often rides this horse for experience
Just strikes me as stable hack with no progression
You also has to consider the trainers Championship
Is he running to try and win a bit more prize money
Would he be running if that was not an issue

MEME´S HORSE - Had just 1 hurdle run
84 day absence as well. Not something I like in these races
Ran his profile carefully. It is a little ambiguous
Obvious concerns about experience and fitness
I would argue it was an average profile at best
Similar horse score better over longer distances

In AMANTO'S Defence
There is a case that he doesn't stay much further than this
If you ignore his runs over 2m 2f or more
Then he starts to look a more attractive horse on numbers
But whilst he may win
His profile is not traditional in this sort of race
Not spending time in All Weather handicaps this year

I much prefer MUFFINS FOR TEA
I think he has the safest profile of the 3
His 2 hurdle runs were Racing Post Ratings of 117 118
That is enough to entitle him to go very well
If he doesn't win he shouldn't be too far away

Selection

MUFFINS FOR TEA 7/4



H e x h a m 2.00

4/7 Very First Time, 5/1 Newtown Lad, 11/2 Wazowski
13/2 Motion To Strike, 33/1 Kev The Car, 66/1 Flying Jack.

2m Novice Hurdle

This race is mainly about the favourite
VERY FIRST TIME is 4/9
Can any of these stop him following up a win last time ?

I think there is a chance
I do not want to bet a 4yo with 1 hurdle start
Not on heavy ground and not at Hexham
And certainly not at 4/9

NEWTOWN LAD comes from a Bumper
In similar races horses doing this were 4-208
I could not go with him

Won't be easy to beat the favourite
But WAZOWSKI does have a chance
He is 3 years older than the favourite
Twice as experienced over hurdles
I would rather bet him at 6/1

Selection

WAZOWSKI 6/1

Each Way

1/4 the Odds 2 places






Pontefract 2.10

5/4 Dusker, 7/2 Sidewinder, 11/2 Springwood
6/1 Percy Toplis, 10/1 Sir Viktor, 16/1 Trois Bon Amis
25/1 Absolutely Awesome, 25/1 Queens Parade.

5yo Novice

Decided not to commit to this race
DUSKER has the best numbers
The issue with him is whether the ground suits
If you look at his sire Elusive Quality
And look at his 5f runners on Good to soft or worse
None have won yet without at least 5 starts
Admittedly only 9 tried with fewer runs and lost
But DUSKER with 1 run does fit that profile
Not good enough to oppose him
But equally I couldn't justify him as a bet either

TROIS BON AMIS fails a similar sire stat as well

SPRINGWOOD could be the one
But doesn't look enticing to me with average numbers

SIDEWINDER could be the each way bet
Hard to reply on this stable though
But he was a positive on Breeding stats
So to was ABSOLUTELY AWESOME at 16/1
That could be worth a tiny each way boredom bet
He was drawn 1 in the Brocklesby
Interested to see if he could get in the frame here

No Selection





P o n t e f r a c t 2.40

100/30 Rocco´s Delight, 4/1 Terhaal, 5/1 Sophisticated Heir
6/1 Ginger Jack, 7/1 Marsh Pride, 8/1 Spring Offensive, 9/1 Trinity Star
14/1 Memory Cloth, 20/1 Purple Rock, 25/1 Zeshov.

Mile Handicap for 0-84 rated horses
April has 151 similar races

If I look at 4 year olds
With 10 or more lifetime starts
Who have raced once this season
In the last 60 days
I find a worrying 1-99 record
And those beaten last time were 0-92
ROCCO´S DELIGHT has this profile

SPRING OFFENSIVE also has this profile

It would put me off both of them
MARSH PRIDE - Not keen on his draw here
Not convinced he will stay either
Her sire has bred 4 winners over a Mile or more
None of these won on soft or heavy
MEMORY CLOTH didn't do enough 4 days ago
PURPLE ROCK didn't do enough last time
GINGER JACK is 9 and absent 133 days
I can't be interested in him

Shortlist

TRINITY STAR - scrapes on the shortlist
Profile fine. Just not sure about the ground first time out

SOPHISTICATED HEIR - Best profile but weak in the market
Horses with his exact profile had a 3-7 record
He has downgraded stables recently though
I think he needs to be at least a saver

TERHAAL has the second best profile
His trainer used to train Sophisticated Heir last season
TERHAAL looks the most likely winner

I would make TERHAAL my first choice
SOPHISTICATED HEIR - I'd save or have something on him too

Selection

TERHAAL Win Bet 4/1

SOPHISTICATED HEIR Place Bet 5/2 +




Pontefract 3.10

4/1 My Name Is Rio, 5/1 Beardwood, 5/1 Ocean Sheridan
7/1 Ballymore Castle, 8/1 Red Pike, 10/1 Related, 10/1 The Hooded Claw
12/1 Avon Breeze, 14/1 Mukhayyam, 16/1 Perfect Pasture
20/1 Redvers, 25/1 Deauville Prince.

6f Handicap
Didn't want to go into too much detail
The angles are a bit too complicated to bother with
The 4 year olds with recent runs don't score well
BALLYMORE CASTLE has this problem
OCEAN SHERIDAN has this problem
AVON BREEZE and REDVERS have weak profiles
I can't bet the Tim Easterby debutants
THE HOODED CLAW and MUKHAYYAM are out

I don't like RED PIKE much
Will He be fit enough first time out on this ground ?

BEARDWOOD - Shortlisted on his profile
His trainer says he is not sure he is fit enough
Never trust comments like that but not my first choice

There are only 17 of these Class 2 Handicaps in April
The best profile is as follows

Male Horses aged 6
Coming from Class 2-3 handicaps
Races with under 17 runners
Running within 25 days
1 run this season
Beaten under 10 lengths last time
Starting under 12/1
Horses with this profile were 3-9
These 3 winners all won this race
The 2008 winner of this race (Turnkey) has this profile
The 2009 winner of this race (Advanced) has this profile
The 2014 winner of this race (Fast Shot) has this profile
2 horses have this profile today
MY NAME IS RIO 4/1
RELATED 7/1

My angles suggest one of these may win
MY NAME IS RIO is not drawn that well
RELATED has a brilliant draw
But has never run 6f on soft before
That does raise a bit of doubt
But I have no better options so will stake it this way

Selection

£5 Win RELATED 6/1

£5 Place MY NAME IS RIO 11/10




N e w t o n A b b o t 3.20

13/8 Aso, 2/1 Dormello Mo, 4/1 Fourth Act, 4/1 Union Saint.

2m 5f Novice Chase
Preference for DORMELLO MO
Several 6yo winners came from very recent 2m races
Like Gilbarry, Soubriquet, Oslot
Just felt his profile had a bit more than the rest
No obvious negatives
No significant angles tempt me to a bet
But I just felt he was the percentage bet

Selection

DORMELLO MO 5/4

Win Bet





P o n t e f r a c t 3.40

4/1 Tuscan Gold, 11/2 American Life, 11/2 Sign Manual
6/1 Mr Snoozy, 6/1 Symbolist, 7/1 Madam Lilibet, 9/1 Filatore
12/1 Omid, 14/1 Riptide, 14/1 Roc De Prince.

2m 5f Staying Handicap

As ever complicated angles in this race
I am not going to commit to it this year
4 year olds have a miserable record in the race
SYMBOLIST is therefore rejected
MADAM LILIBET has never won before July
She ran well last time but that is a worry for me
The following have unproven breeding statistics
MR SNOOZY - FILATORE
ROC DE PRINCE - OMID

TUSCAN GOLD is not a guaranteed stayer either
Look at the prodigy of Medicean on Good to Soft or softer
Over 1m 7f or more they have a 0-40 record
He ran well 2nd last time in the 18f race here
But this is 21.5f and he may not stay

RIPTIDE looks like he needs more runs this year

SIGN MANUAL - One of the better on Breeding stats
But that absence is not ideal in a race like this

Bearing all this in mind
I chose this bet as the one with the fewest problems
If he stays then I'd want to be with him

AMERICAN LIFE 11/2

Each Way




Pontefract 4.10

11/4 Abaco Ridge, 3/1 Dacoity, 3/1 Dance Alone
6/1 Intense Starlet, 8/1 Brilliant Vanguard, 10/1 Zebedaios
14/1 Ss Vega, 33/1 Bazula, 66/1 Bit Of A Quirke
66/1 Longroom, 100/1 Douglas Bank.

6f Maiden Race

Can do little better than a guess here
INTENSE STARLET has to go as a 5yo mare

DACOITY can't be ruled out
His trainer says he is a bit hot headed
The Draw may give him problems too
ZEBEDAIOS - Not for me unraced drawn 11
ABACO RIDGE looks solid enough
Big negative for me at Windsor first time out last year
Good 2nd run so he looks reasonably solid
DANCE ALONE looks a possible saver
BRILLIANT VANGUARD looks another option


£6 Win BRILLIANT VANGUARD 7/1
£3 Win ABACO RIDGE 5/2
£1 Win DANCE ALONE 8/1



Hexham 4.35

Evs Ockey De Neulliac, 6/4 Wicklow Lad
15/2 Grouse Lodge, 14/1 Barachois Silver
25/1 Tommysteel.

Hunter Chase
Marginal preference for OCKEY DE NEULLIAC
I just felt he was marginally the better horse
But also the fittest horse of the main runners
Thats why I prefer him

Selection

OCKEY DE NEULLIAC




W i n d s o r 4.50

2/1 Zig Zag Girl, 9/4 To Have A Dream
5/1 Ocean Temptress, 5/1 She´s Rosanna
8/1 Crystal Secret, 14/1 Fastnet Spin.

5f Novice for 2yo fillies
Just not enough evidence here
I am against the favourite for 2 reasons
ZIG ZAG GIRL only cost £800
His sire's unraced horses are only 1-77
To progress further would be a Wild Guess
So drawing stumps
If you try and guess a bet
I would avoid the favourite myself

No Selection



H u n t i n g d o n 5.05

13/8 Vinciaettis, 5/2 Board Of Trade, 9/2 Will O´the West
9/2 Younevercall, 10/1 Banny´s Lad, 33/1 Classic Tune
66/1 King Of Milan, 100/1 Global Bonus, 100/1 Gustav.

This is a 2m 4f Novice Hurdle

VINCIAETTIS is a 5 year old
He won a 2m Novice Hurdle last time
He only has 4 lifetime starts and 2 hurdle races
I ran his profile carefully
It is just about acceptable but He's more of a Neutral really
Not overkeen on inexperienced horses up in distance
What bothers me most is his stamina
His father Enrique was a 7f Flat horse
He has a stamina index of only 6f

If I look at horses sired by Enrique
Running over 2m 1f or more
Having under 6 hurdle runs
There is a 0-31 record
VINCIAETTIS only has 2 hurdle runs
Not sure he will get home even on this ground

BOARD OF TRADE is a 5yo
Won a Maiden Hurdle last time
Reasonable profile. I have to see him as a threat
I'd have preferred a more recent run but I can live with it
BOARD OF TRADE is not a very big horse
He is undersized and I try and avoid these horses
That is why he is saver not selection

BANNY´S LAD - Can't rule him out
He offers nuisance value
Not enough to select or enough to oppose with confidence

YOUNEVERCALL - Profile a bit of a concern
If I look at 5 year olds from 2m races
Who are absent more than 4 weeks
Who were beaten over 4 lengths last time out
There is a 0-43 record with these horses
YOUNEVERCALL has this problem
He also has just a race in over 5 months

WILL O´THE WEST has one very strange profile
He Pulled up last time in a Graded Novice Handicap
That was at Sandown a few weeks ago
Running his profile I expected a Blank
I found horses with his profile were W W 5 W
Male horses in that record were W W
Now this pair had something in common
They both Pulled up in the same Sandown race
Le Reve pulled up in that race at Sandown in 2013
He came out and won a similar race to this
Up To Something did exactly the same thing
He pulled up in that Graded race and won a similar races
WILL O´THE WEST therefore has to be a positive

Selection

£3.50 Each Way WILL O´THE WEST 7/1
£3.00 Win Bet BOARD OF TRADE 9/4



W i n d s o r 5.50

7/4 Baadi, 4/1 Touch The Sky, 13/2 Hold Hands
10/1 Ceyhan, 14/1 Persaverance, 25/1 Earthwindorfire
66/1 Owners Day, 100/1 Away In May, 100/1 Emerald Petrina
100/1 Kestrel Dot Com, 100/1 Sunny Monday.

10f Maiden

Had a big preview planned
I was going to make 2nd fav Zorfu a big negative
He is a Non runner
So to is another fancied non runner
Big preview now worthless

That has made BAADI odds on
BAADI was always going to be my choice

In all similar races
Horses aged 5 or more have a 0-107 record
HOLD HANDS has this problem
EARTHWINDORFIRE has this problem

CEYHAN is an unraced 4yo filly
These horses are 0-37 in similar races

BAADI was the only horse I could bet
But after 2 non runners he is now too short

Selection

BAADI 4/6

Win Bet




H u n t i n g d o n 5.40

7/4 Lapalala, 7/2 Late Night Lily, 4/1 Lets Hope So, 7/1 Goldray
7/1 Persian Breeze, 16/1 My Mistress, 20/1 Patronne, 25/1 Fair Comment
33/1 Kool Lady, 66/1 Choral Bee, 66/1 Heighnow
100/1 Crazy Train, 100/1 Winola.

This is a Mares Maiden hurdle over 2m

April only has 6 of these races

All 6 winners had 5 or more career starts
Those with fewer were 0-42
Such a small sample size though
LAPALALA only has 4 lifetime starts though

March April May June July
All Mares Maiden hurdles over 2m 2f or less
5 year olds
Under 3 hurdle runs
Horses with this profile were 1-62
LAPALALA shares that profile
Not a very good profile
The only winner ran in a different Month (May)
That horse (There is No Point) had a very recent run
LAPALALA was a negative last time
That was for similar reasons
I am very keen to find a safer alternative
Her profile is not good enough at the price

LETS HOPE SO comes from a Bumper
March April May
Mares Maiden Hurdles
There are 88 of these races over any Distance
Horses from Bumpers were 8-149
Those absent longer than 58 days were 0-58
LETS HOPE SO has this problem
She has just 1 run and that was 387 days ago
If I look at races in this period
And look at horses absent more than 6 months
That had under 12 career starts
I find a 0-62 record
LETS HOPE SO has this problem and is rejected

MY MISTRESS - Not for me aged 4 with 1 hurdle start
PATRONNE has an unappealing profile


GOLDRAY is a 10 year old
None of the 88 winners were that old
In races over 2m 2f or less they score badly
Look at Mares Maiden Hurdles
Run at any time of year
Over 2m 2f or shorter
Horses aged 8 or more have a 0-72 record
They win occasionally at longer trips
None thought at any time of year won at 2m 2f or less
GOLDRAY fails this 0-72 record

PERSIAN BREEZE was decent on the flat
She nearly had a very good profile
I found 6 horses with similar profiles that won
But they all ran within 10 lengths of the winner last time
PERSIAN BREEZE was beaten 28 lengths
Because of that she is not a close enough match to a winner
She could be one of my biggest dangers though

You have to consider it was a Grade 1 track
The horses that were 1st 2nd 3rd in her last race
Would all be short priced favourites in this race
She was running on nicely at the end as well
PERSIAN BREEZE was the only filly that day
She was taking on 15 Males several with big numbers
In the context of her chance it was a good run
I think she has to be a saver

LATE NIGHT LILY looks the only solid option
Mares Maiden Hurdles
March April May
Horses aged 5
3 hurdle runs
Beaten under 10 lengths last time
Starting under 100/1
Absent longer than a Month
But running in the last 70 days
4 Horses had this profile
They finished W W W W
2 of these won similar races at this track
They were Call Me A Legend and Saraba
LATE NIGHT LILY shares this W W W W profile
She has to be the most likely winner

Selection

LATE NIGHT LILY 5/2 Win Bet

PERSIAN BREEZE 7/1 Saver Bet


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