0 Account Bet
0 Selection
1 Profile & Preview bet
0 Negatives
0 Previews
4 Races Discussed

Today we seem to be riddled with small fields
and I'm steering well clear of those. Statistics
are not as effective in tiny fields. We are on a
Hat trick today after 2 winners in 2 days and it
may look like an unusual and insipid Saturday
but I've found 4 races I can find something in.

I'm sending an early message. It is quite short
for the Saturday message but too many races
have cut up and I liked all my 4 previews a lot.



Today's Bet

Win Bet and Saver

Lingfield 3.10

KINGSLEY KLARION 11/2 Win Bet

AGUEROOO 6/1 Saver Bet




Staked to £10 for guidance

£7.00 Win KINGSLEY KLARION 11/2

£3.00 Win AGUEROOO 6/1




KINGSLEY KLARION

6/1 Boyles
11/2 Ladbrokes Hills PPower Bet365
11/2 Skybet Tote Betfred Chandler Betfair

AGUEROOO

13/2 Betfred Chandler Corals Betfair
61 Bet365 Boyles Spbet Stan J Ladbrokes


It was a toss up between this race
And the 3.45pm at Lingfield
I have staked this wanting to win if either win
KINGSLEY KLARION comes out as a 7/2 winner
AGUEROOO comes out as a 11/10 winner



T o d a y s M e s s a g e


4 Preview day

Newbury 1.20
Emerging Talent 4/5
Win Bet

Lingfield 3.10
£7.00 Win KINGSLEY KLARION 11/2
£3.00 Win AGUEROOO 6/1

Lingfield 3.45
£7.00 Win LUNAR DEITY 11/2
£3.00 Win BRAVE SOLO 15/8

Gowran Park 5.05
Msmilan 11/4
Win Bet


EMERGING TALENT is too short for a bet
He is 4/5 but I'd have had him at 4/9 myself

KINGSLEY KLARION-AGUEROOO I also like
This pair are the outsiders of a smallish field
I can't split them well so may have chosen wrong
But I felt they were overpriced and worth a bet

LUNAR DEITY is not statistically based
He is a bet thats based on my Fitness Theory
I feel he is the fittest horse by a mile
And I am saving on the biggest potential improver
Obviously the Lingfield bets will want luck in running
It will work out as a 3/1 winner
With Money back if the favourite takes it
Could and maybe should have been the bet

MSMILAN is based on a theory
I can't provide data that backs that theory up
Looking at the race he could be a steal each way
He may just have 1 possible danger
But this is a bet thats harder to predict
By far the weakest of my four selections



It was a direct choice today for the bet

The LUNAR DEITY bet

or the KINGSLEY KLARION-AGUEROOO bet

I just preferred the latter
What I like about this bet
Is we have the two Class horses covered
They only have a 0-80 Class field to beat
They have been operating at a higher level
2 of their 3 rivals come from Class 5 races
I think they may just have too much for these




N e g a t i v e s

No Negative Today


Results of Negatives

22 correct bets from 28





F r i d a y s S u m m a r y

A lovely winner yesterday and our second on the
trot. CRAZY TORNADO did exactly what I wanted
breaking fast and pinching a lead against the two
dangers who both failed that same unusual angle.
I couldn't believe he started at 5/4 so I hope most
people took the early 5/2 and 9/4 as there was lots
of it. That was a well timed winner and as I said on
Friday I have come right all of a sudden. We didn't
put a foot wrong all night at Dundalk and that just
reinforces what I been saying for a while now that
Irish Racing is better and easier than the English
and this year many of our bets will race in Ireland.



P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s





N e w b u r y 1.20

5/4 Emerging Talent, 3/1 Meet The Legend
5/1 Argante, 6/1 Herewego Herewego
16/1 Burning Desire, 16/1 Shanandoa
40/1 Bobby Benton.

This is a 2m Novice Hurdle
EMERGING TALENT has some decent form
He has 6 runs over hurdles 3 in Graded races
He sets a clear standard ahead of the others
I think he will win this
MEET THE LEGEND does not come out well
There are 278 similar races in February
Horses aged 5
1 Previous hurdle race
Coming from 2m in that race
Under 10 lifetime starts
Absent over a Month

I ran this profile and found a 0-50 record
MEET THE LEGEND has this 0-50 profile
I don't want to risk him with just 1 hurdle run
He wasn't even placed in that run.
He had good Bumper form and looks talented
But these angles suggest he has a lot to prove
I feel EMERGING TALENT will beat him

Given his 6 runs and 3 of them in Graded class
I would much prefer him to an unraced hurdler
HEREWEGO HEREWEGO is unraced
Looks interesting on paper but no lifetime starts
That is surely a big ask on a Grade 1 track
Against a horse with some decent numbers
ARGANTE has no hurdling form
Again I feel he is unlikely to match the favourite

EMERGING TALENT should have too much for these
He has 3 opponents starting under 40/1
One has never raced anywhere before
Another has never raced over hurdles before
The other just once and fails a 0-50 statistic
I can't help think he should be shorter

Selection

EMERGING TALENT 10/11

Win Bet





L i n g f i e l d 3.10

9/4 Discreet Hero, 5/2 Summer Chorus
7/2 Gorokai, 5/1 Kingsley Klarion, 6/1 Aguerooo.

This is a 3yo handicap over 7f
There are 27 of these races in February

The 2 winners of this race had 9 and 7 runs
It is often best to stay with the experienced horses
My profiles shortlist the 2 most experienced
That doesn't surprise me in the slightest

Summer Chorus 3 runs
Discreet Hero 6 runs
Gorokai 6 runs
Kingsley Klarion 10 runs
Aguerooo 10 runs

DISCREET HERO seems short of runs
He has raced just once since September
He has fewer runs than all of his opponents
Not many win similar races with 1 run in several months
None did it that were male with over 3 runs

SUMMER CHORUS is a filly with just 3 runs
There were 7 winners that were fillies
They had 12 6 9 4 5 10 9 runs
None were as inexperienced as her
There were 2 fillies winning last time out
They both had 9 or more runs
SUMMER CHORUS with 3 isn't a match

January February March
3yo handicaps over 5f 6f 7f
Class 4 or higher
Fillies
Coming from handicaps
Under 4 Career starts
I return a 0-19 record with these horses
Includes losers at 6/4 5/1 3/1 9/4 13/8 10/11 11/4 94 11/4 5/4
SUMMER CHORUS has this profile
Thats a 3 month spread of races over 3 distances



Horses from 5f handicaps won 2 races
They had 11 and 12 career starts
Those with under 11 runs were 0-13
GOROKAI has this problem with just 6 runs
January February March
3yo handicaps over 6f
Horses that won 5f handicaps last time are 1-23
The only winner was a filly with 12 runs
GOROKAI is not a close enough match to a winner

Shortlist

AGUEROOO comes from a 5f handicap
Horses from 5f handicaps won 2 races
With 10 career starts he is shortlistable
He is close enough to the 2 winners
They had 11 and 12 runs and 10 is close enough

KINGSLEY KLARION won a 6f handicap last time
I looked at Male horses doing this
With 9-10-11 career starts like him
There was a very decent 3-8 record

Selecton

KINGSLEY KLARION 11/2 Win Bet

AGUEROOO 6/1 Saver Bet



L i n g f i e l d 3.45

11/4 Mutawathea, 7/2 Truth Or Dare
4/1 Bravo Zolo, 5/1 Si Senor, 7/1 Lunar Deity
8/1 Capo Rosso, 14/1 Starboard.

This is a Class 2 handicap over 7f
Only 12 of these races in February
Not really enough races to trust angles in

I am going a different way in this race
Today is February 13th
Go back 3 Months to November 13th
Look at how many runs each horse had
In the previous 3 Months

Mutawathea 1 run
Capo Rosso 1 run
Bravo Zolo 1 run
Starboard 1 run
Si Senor 1 run
Truth Or Dare 1 run
Lunar Deity 5 runs

This suggests LUNAR DEITY is the fittest horse
He has 5 runs in the last 3 months
None of the other runners have more than 1 run
Now look at the absences each horse has

Bravo Zolo 47 days
Capo Rosso 35 days
Truth Or Dare 28 days
Mutawathea 28 days
Starboard 19 days
Si Senor 14 days
Lunar Deity 7 days

LUNAR DEITY also has by far the most recent run
It is hard to escape the fact he is the fittest horse
Normally I would not want to bet his type
Not a 7 year old going up in distance
Nor one trained by an impossible to read trainer
But he is a big price
This is a small field
And he is clearly by far the fittest horse
It may not be fitness that is the key issue
But if it is then we have the winner

BRAVE ZOLO does look worth a saver
Whilst he has the same problems as the others
He has one advantage
He is a lightly raced 4 year old

I've looked at similar races
Horses aged 4
Between 6 and 9 career starts
Absent 6-9 weeks
Male horses
Coming from a handicap
Beaten under 10 lengths last time
There were 3 horses that had this profile
They finished W W 3

One of the winners was Solar Deity
He won this race in 2013 with the above profile
Last years winner was also a lightly raced 4yo
It earns him the role of saver


Selection

£7 Win LUNAR DEITY 11/2

£3 Win BRAVE ZOLO 15/8






G o w r a n P a r k 5.05

1/2 She´s Otto, 2/1 Msmilan, 16/1 Sunset Marquis
20/1 Barrow Valley, 33/1 Cantata Belle
33/1 Castlequarter Star, 33/1 Khalessi
33/1 So Sorry Sarah, 33/1 Tasidana, 100/1 A L´attaque.

This is a 2m 1f Bumper for mares
It would appear to be a match

SHE´S OTTO is a 5yo mare sired by Milan
MSMILAN is a 5yo mare sired by Milan

Both share the same age and sire
Foaled within 24 hrs of each other
Obviously a lot of comparisons

SHE´S OTTO has 1 Bumper run
That recorded a Racing Post Rating of 101

MSMILAN has a Racing Post Rating of 100
But that race was in a HURDLE
That is what draws me into this race

Statistically both are fine
I can't find an edge with either horse
Many like MSMILAN go from Hurdles to Bumpers

Bumpers are often used to get some experience
SHE´S OTTO caught the eye last time and ran well
I don't have any strong complaints about her
But she did have a hard race on bad ground last time
And she was only in a Bumper

MSMILAN's connections didn't go down that route
They obviously felt she could go straight over hurdles
Should we read anything into this
IS she stronger and maturer ?
She looks a more substantial horse on video
But it was hard to tell and is quite subjective

I can't be sure if Hurdles form trumps bumper form
When racing in a Bumper race
But it may well do and I am drawn more to MSMILAN
She ran very well just 9 days ago
Perhaps the best argument is the price
MSMILAN is 11/4 against the odds on She's Otto
Potentially a strong type I think that's the bet

Selection

MSMILAN 11/4 +

Win Bet


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