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Returning back to the account today.
This is not a long message.
Not been able to do as much as I wanted.
A few things have caught up with me
Wont do any harm to slow today down
This is the 8th message in a row
Want to keep fresh for the weekend


Today's Bet


Newbury 12.20

£4 Each Way LIGHT OF AIR 11/2

£2 Saver Bet VINCENT´S FOREVER 5/1


11/2 Hills Corals Ladbrokes Spbet
11/2 Bet365 Skybet Stan J Independants

T o d a y s M e s s a g e




Newbury 12.20

£4 Each Way LIGHT OF AIR 11/2

£2 Saver Bet VINCENT´S FOREVER 5/1

VINCENT´S FOREVER is a saver
Bad profile. Arguably should not be
But this is a David Pipe horse
LIGHT OF AIR is a Gary Moore horse
Both I find fantastically capable as trainers
But slippery bedfellows

We have a favourite who May not stay
Can't be sure about that
But there is evidence to really question that

The 4th + 5th favourites have breeding problems
The rest look too outrageous

I could be wrong about the favourite and still not lose
So I do like this bet
Even if I have one eye open on the trainers



Daily Negatives

No Official Negative


Negative Profiles

Newbury 3.10 Bags Groove 4/5

Not over excited as he only fails a 0-19 stat


Results of Negatives
30 correct bets from 42






Tuesday's Summary

4 previews yesterday
Only got the one outright winner
I will take that as I didn't fancy the cards
With some slightly different staking
We might have rescued a couple more races
Such as each way bets rather than savers
But we went down a different route
Finished behind on an uninviting day






P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s


L i n g f i e l d 12.10

Evs Cercle D´or, 100/30 Lady Hester, 9/2 Flood Warning
9/2 Harbour Grey, 12/1 Sandy Shores, 20/1 Bradfield Magic
25/1 Parisian Chic, 25/1 Shiloh, 66/1 Lady Parker
100/1 Venetian Proposal.

This is a 2yo maiden over 7f for fillies

There are 4 main runners
2 are trained by John Gosden
Who has dominated this race
And these 2 horses have experience

LADY HESTER ran once 93 days ago
She flopped when favourite on her debut
No problem with that profile
I can find winners with similar profiles

CERCLE D´OR has two runs
Racing Post Ratings of 69 and 73
I think you can upgrade those performances
Her first run was over a Mile
Her sires debutants over 8f + are 0-49
So none by her sire have ever won over that far
When on their debut starts so that is excusable
Her second run also had some excuses
Drawn widest of all the runners at Chelmsford
Ran wide and lost some ground doing that

I would much rather take this pair
Than the unraced horses
HARBOUR GREY is unraced
His sire is 2-49 with unraced 7f horses
Neither of those were fillies
FLOOD WARNING looks a better bred horse
But his trainer doesn't always get them fit first time
I would rather trust Gosden anyway

This is how I would play it

£5 Win Bet CERCLE D´OR 10/11

£5 Place Bet LADY HESTER 4/5




N e w b u r y 12.20

13/8 Cosmeapolitan, 3/1 Vincent´s Forever
9/2 Fixed Rate, 9/2 Light Of Air, 12/1 Marmont
16/1 Magnificent Madiba, 20/1 Top Of The Rocks
40/1 Knight Commander, 40/1 Pension Madness
66/1 Sevilla.

This is s Juvenile hurdle

COSMEAPOLITAN was a decent Flat horse
Rated 95 I don't doubt his ability to win this
Not sure I would want to risk him though
His sire has had 4 horses running over hurdles
Between them they have a combined 0-13 record
The best Racing Post Rating any managed was 82
It's going to take a 120 + rating to win this
I have to question his stamina
COSMEAPOLITAN's sire is hardly convincing
One of the things I hate about his pedigree
Is the father of the dam is Compton Place
One of my favourite sires as he is predictable
His presence anywhere in any pedigree worries me
If I look at every National Hunt horse
Whose dam was sired by Compton Place
There was a predictably poor 1-62 record
The only winner he managed to get
Was a Class 7 Listowel Handicap Hurdler
I want to oppose COSMEAPOLITAN
I opposed him on the flat more than once
This was also down on stamina grounds
Genuine chance for me he will not stay

MARMONT is avoidable
His sire is the infamous Winker Watson
One of the sires I like to avoid
He has bred 2 hurdles winners before
But no surprise they were in Grade 7 races
It would surprise me if he were good enough
FIXED RATE is a hurdling debutant
I don't think he has shown enough class
Besides that he sired by Oasis Dream
Hurdlers sired by Oasis Dream
Have won 21 races to date
Those running on Good to soft or worse are 3-99
All 3 winners had at least 5 hurdle runs
Those who had under 5 previous hurdle races
Have a horrible looking 0-60 record
FIXED RATE fails this 0-60 statistic
If you look at Oasis Dreams hurdlers
On their hurdling debut all 4 have lost as well.

MAGNIFICENT MADIBA is a hurdling debutant
He was only a Class 6 horse on the Flat
TOP OF THE ROCKS has the same problems

VINCENT´S FOREVER just had his 1st hurdle run
He was beaten 44 lengths just 13 days ago
That heavy defeat badly damages his profile
He gets extra credit for starting favourite last time
And he was eased down but similar types rarely win
December 3yo Hurdle races
Horses running in the previous 19 days
Beaten over 15 lengths last time out
Had a miserable 1-192 record
VINCENT´S FOREVER shares that 1-192 profile

LIGHT OF AIR ran 12 days ago
He was beaten under 15 lengths last time but only just
Beaten any further his profile would have been poor
But I think we can view it more positively
He made the running in a smart field
H led all the way until the last hurdle
When he just got overtaken after a small mistake
He did a lot of the donkey work and shaped very well
The winner looks very smart
And he didn't deserve to lose by 14 lengths

Selection

£4 Each Way LIGHT OF AIR 11/2

£2 Saver Bet VINCENT´S FOREVER 5/1



N e w b u r y 3.10

5/4 Bags Groove, 11/2 Crystal Lad, 11/2 Westendorf
7/1 Tintern Theatre, 8/1 Shantou Rock, 12/1 Sneaky Feeling
16/1 Big Windmill, 20/1 Creep Desbois, 20/1 Shrewd Tactics
40/1 Midnight Jitterbug, 50/1 Classico Dais
50/1 Whispering Nick, 66/1 Golden Gate Bridge
100/1 Lough Derg Mystery, 100/1 Messery.

2m 3f Novice Hurdle

BAGS GROOVE is all the rage at odds on
Decent bumper horse
Good hurdling debut when 2nd to a high class prospect
But it matters not who you finish behind
It doesn't really matter much who you finish ahead of either
He is priced up a little bit on reputation
When I look at his profile
Beaten in a 2m Maiden Hurdle last time
Running within the last 6 weeks
I found a 0-19 record with similar types
There is nothing special at all about that profile

CRYSTAL LAD did not come out well enough
Horses aged 4
Coming from a 2m Hurdle
Running within 3 weeks
Under 10 career starts
Horses with this profile were 0-32
CRYSTAL LAD has this 0-32 profile
hat stops him being the selection

Shortlist

CREEP DESBOIS
SHANTOU ROCK
WESTENDORF

CREEP DESBOIS - Can't be ruled out
Looks a cheap saver that gives us more options
WESTENDORF has a safer profile then most
Well that is if you ignore the Jonjo O'Neill aspect of it
Not a stable I can trust or anyone can read
But he won last time and as a 5yo
That puts him very close to the top of the list
SHANTOU ROCK is not out of this either
Despite a 4yo with just 1 career start
His profile has a winner in it and he can't be ruled out

Selection

WESTENDORF 6/1

£4 Each Way


£1 Saver SHANTOU ROCK 9/1

£1 Saver CREEP DESBOIS 12/1

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