1 Account Bet
0 Negative
8 Previews

The final Saturday message of 2016
Today plays 2nd fiddle to Sunday this week
Unusually Sunday is a Bank Holiday
So most of the choice is tomorrow
Still we have 8 previews today

There were only two options today
One was to go No Bet
The other was a Lingfield Bet
I was in two minds to go for it or not
But in the end I decided to go with the bet


Today's Bet


Lingfield 12.55

SUFFRAGETTE CITY 7/2 - 4/1

Each Way


4/1 Ladbrokes Skybet Chandler
4/1 Hills Betway Stan J
7/2 Betfred Bet365 Spbet
7/2 Corals Betfair Sportsbook


Sets the standard
Not a very high one to be fair
But has experience on her side
And reasons to think she has ability
Much will depend on how good the opposition is
Whether the unraced fillies in the race perform
All things being equal she should go close




T o d a y s M e s s a g e

Lingfield - 3 previews
Punchestown - 2 previews
Warwick - 2 previews
Newbury - 1 preview

I knew there would be more choice tomorrow
There was always a temptation to go No Bet
And focus on the bank holiday cards
But I feel we have a good bet at Lingfield

Lingfield 12.55

SUFFRAGETTE CITY 7/2-4/1

Each Way

Not keen advising 7/2 chances each way
Won't be the easiest bet to get on as well

I spent a lot of time on two Lingfield races
I loved 3 horses in one race and 2 in another

Lingfield 2.05

£3.50 Each Way Georgian Bay 14/1
£1.50 Win Bet Oaffaal 5/1
£1.50 Win Bet Third Time Lucky 5/1

Lingfield 3.15

£4.00 Each Way Jumeirah Star 6/1
£2.00 Saver Musical Taste 6/1

The problem here is bet selection and staking
I am happy with the 6 horses in these 2 races
But the staking and choice of selections randon
I could just have soon doubled them up
And had 6 x win doubles
Neither race safe enough for a staked bet


This are races for gentle play
Best bet has to be SUFFRAGETTE CITY




Daily Negatives

No Official Negative

Negatives Thin on the ground today
These are too big to worry about

Warwick 12.30 - Grace Tara 11/4
Lingfield 12.55 - Zilza 3/1
Punchestown 2.30 - Duke Cass 11/4

30 correct bets from 42





Friday's Summary

Only the two meetings yesterday
I didn't think I would get even to 3 previews
We did though and they went L W W
The 1st horse was Beau Du Brizais each way
That was a loser coming only 4th
Although Betfair did pay out on the 4th place
THE UNIT won to more than repair that damage
The last preview also won pleasingly enough
ADALENE won 6 lengths and never broke sweat
Good performance given the real lack of choice





P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s




P u n c h e s t o w n 12.15

5/2 Edwulf, 4/1 Bentelimar, 9/2 Childrens List
6/1 Arkwrisht, 13/2 Be The Hero, 8/1 Laid Back Luke
14/1 The Big Apple, 16/1 Red Giant, 50/1 Honest Robber
66/1 Shuil Teacht Aniar.

Beginners Chase over 3m 1f

Not confident here

My angles steer me to EDWULF
But they do that by ruling other horses out
And we are left with a last time out faller
Whose claim is based on others not being suitable

ARKWRISHT was hammered on his chase debut
CHILDRENS LIST was hammered on his chase debut
Asking a lot for either to bounce back
Especially ARKWRISHT who ran just 14 days ago

We have to remember though
These are well bred types from big stables
They are not going to be bad horses and will improve

If I look at all of these races since 2008
Run at any time of year over 3m and more
Horses from 2m Chases
Running within 25 days have a 0-38 record
BENTELIMAR comes from a recent 2m Chase
LAID BACK LUKE comes from a recent 2m Chase
I should not select either on that statistic
BE THE HERO could pop up
But he is the stables second string
So I am left with EDWULF by default
Nice type and looks progressive
But has finished just 1 of his 3 Chase types
Lets hope he can put that right today
My only statistical option
But a bet I would keep to low stakes

Selection

EDWULF 7/4

Win Bet





W a r w i c k 12.30

4/6 Copper Kay, 4/1 Grace Tara, 12/1 Robin Deuz Pois
14/1 Ruby Wilde, 14/1 Shaluna, 16/1 Lady Beaufort
16/1 Queens Present, 20/1 Ellens Way, 20/1 Wishicould
50/1 Alameda, 50/1 Spring Pools, 50/1 Spy In The Sky
66/1 Time Wise, 66/1 Timeforwest, 100/1 Harvey
100/1 Miss Giselle, 200/1 Chasing Fairies
200/1 Dewberry.

Mares Novice Hurdle over 2m 5f

It is a shame COPPER KEY is not a bigger price
But I think she shouls win this race
Only 2 horses are under 25/1
Her main rival GRACE TARA is weak

If I look at all Mares Novice Hurdles
Run at any distance at this time of year
Horses aged 7 or more
Having under 4 career starts
Have a modest 4-155 record
Those absent more than 20 days were 1-115
GRACE TARA shares this 1-115 profile
She has raced just once since May 2014
COPPER KAY just feels stronger

Selection

COPPER KAY 4/6

Win Bet





L i n g f i e l d 12.55

100/30 Settle Petal, 9/2 Suffragette City, 9/2 Zilza
5/1 Beatisa, 7/1 Maarit, 12/1 Dawn Goddess
14/1 Peachey Carnehan, 16/1 Critical Thinking
20/1 Eugenie Feather, 25/1 Innstigator
25/1 Touch Me, 66/1 Malt Teaser.

7f Maiden race for 2 year olds

A real lack of quality here
Some poorly bred horses
Some very average performances so far
From several starting 50/1 and more last time

I am asking myself the obvious question
Can SUFFRAGETTE CITY be out the frame
Recent run only 11 days ago
Rich in experience
Her Numbers are 63 71 71 71 71 63 55 69 63
These are pretty average efforts
But none of the others have matched them yet

ZILZA has done a Racing Post Rating of 66
But she is only a once raced filly
If I look at fillies who have raced once before
In all similar 7f maidens in December they are 5-88
Look at those that raced in the previous 31 days
They have a disappointing 0-83 record
ZILZA fails that 0-83 record
Not many were fancied admittedly
But do we really want a once raced Conrad Allen filly ?
Who flashed her tail on her debut and started 50/1

SETTLE PETAL should be a danger
But she does need to improve down in trip

BEATISA is an unraced filly
MAARIT is an unraced filly
Unraced fillies are 3-71
I would rather side with experience
MAARIT's sire has no unraced winners over 7f +

I keep coming back to the same conclusion
Can 3 of these beat SUFFRAGETTE CITY ?
We will soon find out to our cost if they can
As this seems the only sensible option in a bad race
SUFFRAGETTE CITY hasn't dome much wrong
Hardly likely she could have won so far anyway
She was in 2 big field Newmarket Nurseries
One of these was a class 2 handicap
Her Chester defeat was when drawn 15 of 15

Selection

SUFFRAGETTE CITY 7/2

Each Way





N e w b u r y 1.50

7/4 Robin Roe, 7/2 Baltazar D´allier
7/2 Messire Des Obeaux, 8/1 Elegant Escape
10/1 Cultivator, 11/1 Ami Desbois, 12/1 Peak To Peak
66/1 Major Mac.

The Challow Hurdle is a Grade 1 over 2m 4f
Shouldn't really be a Grade 1 but it is

ROBIN ROE has 2 small problems
No past winners came from maiden hurdles (0-7)
None won absent more than 58 days
The longest absent winner was last year
But he had more experience than ROBIN ROE
I am not selecting him because of those reasons
BALTAZAR D´ALLIER also comes via a maiden hurdle
So far all 7 trying that failed
Not a great angle but he has raced just once before
None his age have won this when so inexperienced

If you look at the record of 4 year olds in this race
The only winners had 6-7 previous hurdle starts
PEAK TO PEAK only has 1
ELEGANT ESCAPE only has 2
I don't want a lightly raced 4yo because of that
AMI DESBOIS has done remarkably well
May just find this too hot to handle
I can only shortlist 2 horses

CULTIVATOR
MESSIRE DES OBEAUX

CULTIVATOR could be a saver
MESSIRE DES OBEAUX is the right kind of 4yo
His trainer has a poor record in the race
But I am not persuaded by that argument
He is aware of it and will want to correct that
And he has not ran the right horses in it

Selection

£4.50 Each Way MESSIRE DES OBEAUX 7/2

£1.00 Win Bet CULTIVATOR 7/1







L i n g f i e l d 2.05

3/1 Qaffaal, 6/1 Alfred Hutchinson, 6/1 Mr Bossy Boots
6/1 My Target, 8/1 Third Time Lucky, 10/1 Bold Prediction
10/1 Presumido, 14/1 Georgian Bay, 14/1 Grey Mirage
20/1 Lunar Deity, 20/1 Passing Star, 33/1 Majestic Moon.

This is a Class 2 handicap over a Mile
There are only 15 similar races at this time of year

ALFRED HUTCHINSON has a weak profile
GREY MIRAGE shares that weak profile
Every Class 2 handicap since 2007
Run at any time of year
If you look at horses aged 6 or more
Who come from 7f or shorter
And who do not run in the last 18 days
You find a 0-122 record
ALFRED HUTCHINSON fails this by some way
GREY MIRAGE also fails this able
One is 8 and up in distance and absent 42 days
The other is 7 up in distance and absent 24 days
I am looking elsewhere
H is 7 and up in trip absent 24 days
BOLD PREDICTION has a weak profile
Class 2 handicaps in December
Run over any distance
Horses aged 4 or more
Absent over 100 days are 0-34
BOLD PREDICTION is therefore rejected
He is a 6yo absent 140 days
PASSING STAR has a weak profile
Combing a nasty absence and a class rise
LUNAR DEITY is very resistible
Least experienced jockey from the worst draw
MAJESTIC MOON has stamina problems
Hammered every time he raced over a mile
He was a 100/1 chance last time in a similar race
If you look at his sires runners over 8f or more
In Class 4 or higher they have a 0-25 record
This should be too hot and too far for him
MR BOSSY BOOTS has never won over 8f +
He has never won off his current rating before either
I dislike the fact he comes from 7f as well
November December January
Every Class 2 handicap over a Mile
Horses from 7f races
Aged 5 or more
Absent longer than 14 days
Have a 0-50 record during these months
MR BOSSY BOOTS looks unsafe on that angle

PRESUMIDO may be short of class
His best win has come in a handicap off a mark of 81
His best win was in a Class 4 handicap
H has never raced in Class 2 before
Today he tries to win one off a rating of 87
PRESUMIDO did win last time
But this is 2 grades higher
And he was luck to win last time
The leaders went off too fast
And he had a dream passage through

MY TARGET probably needs a career best
Beaten 23 lengths last time weakens his profile
I can tell you he was badly drawn last time
And tell you he certainly went off too fast
And had legitimate excuses for that run
All that is true but it glosses over one thing
Horses like him beaten that far last time
Rarely win Class 2 handicaps
At least not at this time of year

Shortlis

THIRD TIME LUCKY
QAFFAAL
GEORGIAN BAY

QAFFAAL needs a career best
Don't rule that out he has just ran 4 of them !!
His best win is a Class 3 race off a mark of 78
That was two runs ago
Last time he moved up to this class for the first time
He raced off a mark of 84
He ran a very respectable 2nd
But he has been raised 3lbs for being beaten
So his second attempt in this class
Should be harder for him
I do like his fitness and momentum though
He has now 4 career bests in a row
His last 4 Racing Post Ratings are 80 84 89 92
His previous best before that was only 79
QAFFAAL seems to be at his career peak
His last 4 runs were W W W 2
Beaten last time he was unlucky
He was matched at 1.01 in running
The winner an improving 3yo from a big stable
He got first run on him
QAFFAAL can not be underestimated

THIRD TIME LUCKY won the 2015 Cambridgeshire
Clearly that proves he has the class
No Glaring holes in his profile
Only2 runs before on the sand
Both were on his last 2 runs
Both would give him a chance of taking this
His overall profile is shortlistable

GEORGIAN BAY has a good recent run
He ticks a lot of boxes because of that
I think he is well handicapped
His numbers are consistent and in the right range
Not easy to know just what kind of form he is in
But go back to February 2014 when he was a 4 year old
He has raced 18 times since then on the all weather
His lowest Racing Post Rating in these 18 runs
Was still a very creditable 92
H has never ran below a RPR of 92 on sand since then
Yet his handicap mark has rarely been as low as this
Rated 91 today that's why I say he is well handicapped

Selection

When I did this race I had no idea of prices
But I knew I had to have something on all 3
Prices though have dictated selection and stakes

THIRD TIME LUCKY was always a saver
I much preferred the other 2 horses
QAFFAAL was my provisional number 1
I liked him best but expected a better price
And on reflection I feel GEORGIAN BAY is value
And whilst the staking is messy
I only felt the love for these 3 horses

£3.50 Each Way GEORGIAN BAY 14/1

£1.50 Win Bet QAFFAAL 5/1

£1.50 Win Bet THIRD TIME LUCKY 5/1





W a r w i c k 2.10

3/1 Desert Retreat, 3/1 Handsome Sam
6/1 Wake Your Dreams, 10/1 Giveitachance, 10/1 Quinto
10/1 Saint John Henry, 12/1 Extreme Impact, 12/1 Vedani
20/1 Bodega, 20/1 The Artful Cobbler, 25/1 Mogestic
33/1 Alpha Victor.

3m 2f Handicap Hurdle

Complicated race
I wanted to split stake this

I quite liked HANDSOME SAM
id have some reservations though
I'd have liked more runs this season
Statistically his profile is "Ok"
Had he ran a bit better last time
Then his profile would be very smart
But he is in the acceptable range
I came away thinking he should place
But could be vulnerable to a fitter horse
A horse with several recent runs

DESERT RETREAT does have that
But I am leaving him off the shortlist
I hate his sires record so far
17 horses have ran sired by Sandmason
Between them they have a miserable 1-90 record
Their combined best ever Racing post Rating was 113
Which probably won't be enough to win this race
Maybe history will show him to be a staying sire
And DESERT RETREAT may win with runs this year
The following horses have fitness doubts
BODEGA - MOGESTIC - ALPHA VICTOR
THE ARTFUL COBBLER - SAINT JOHN HENRY
WAKE YOUR DREAMS is absent too long
EXTREME IMPACT not running well enough for a 10yo
GIVEITACHANCE - Not a negative but prefer others
My breeding stats wont support him enough

Shortlist

HANDSOME SAM - Place option
VEDANI - I want him on side
QUINTO - Recent runs help
Sires hurdles over 3m + on soft are 2-3

Selection

£2.50 Each Way QUINTO 8/1

£5 Place Bet HANDSOME SAM 4/5






P u n c h e s t o w n 2.30

3/1 Mill Quest, 7/2 Duke Cass, 11/2 Dont Kick Nor Bite
6/1 Realt Mor, 8/1 Little Haarth, 10/1 Herminator
10/1 The Mulcare Rover, 12/1 Jack The Wire
16/1 Mine Now, 25/1 Follow The Sign, 33/1 Attalco.

2m 4f Handicap Hurdle

Well out of my comfort zone here
There are good reasons why I don't do these races
But I had to mention 1 statistic

DUKE CASS is 3/1 Favourite
Go back to 2005
Every Handicap Hurdle over 2m 4f or more
Any Class of race
Any time of year
Look at 4 year olds
Coming from Novice or maiden hurdles
Coming from 2 mile races
Running within the last 23 days
I ran that profile and found a 1-152 record
Now chuck out the Novice Handicap Hurdles
And horses in ordinary handicap hurdles are 0-109
DUKE CASS fails this 0-109 record

So running in a 2m novice hurdle
Only 4 days ago may be a problem for a 4yo
Now you can argue several were not fancied
And DUKE CASS did win last time out
So that will improve the statistic
I find several like him who have placed
Just none that have won
But I don't like unorthodox profiles like this
So if you want to have a bet in this race and I don't
Then I would either oppose DUKE CASS
Latch onto something each way
Or perhaps the clever play here is a place bet
Bet DUKE CASS place only at 4/6
If I look at all similar 4 year olds
Won won last time out
They were all beaten but the vast majority placed
I am predicting he will place but not win
But I am not interested enough in the race
And don't have enough time to try and sort it

No Selection





L i n g f i e l d 3.15

11/4 Musical Taste, 5/1 Colourbearer
5/1 Compton Prince, 11/2 Indian Affair, 6/1 Jumeirah Star
12/1 Triple Dream, 14/1 Born To Finish, 14/1 Frap
25/1 City Of Angkor Wat, 25/1 Indus Valley
33/1 Cloak And Degas.

This is a low grade 6f handicap
December has 155 similar races

If I look at horses aged 8 or more
Those absent more than 27 days were 1-64
Horses aged 9 or more
Absent more than 14 days were 1-52
Older horses with absences are vulnerable
INDUS VALLEY is rejected aged 9 absent 88 days

TRIPLE DREAM is 11 years old
The record of horses aged 11 in similar races is 0-28
Given he's 2 years older than everything he is out
CLOAK AND DEGAS is an exposed 4yo
With a nasty absence not like any winners
I looked at the winners aged 3
They all ran within the previous 86 days
Those absent longer have a 0-52 record
BORN TO FINISH has this problem absent 114 days
FRAP was beaten over 10 lengths last time over 7f
If I look at horses well beaten over 7f last time
Those aged 3-4-5 have a 0-49 record
That puts me off FRAP
CITY OF ANGKOR WAT comes from a 5f race
Horses from 5f races running within 6 days
Have a 0-32 record when beaten last time
Profile is unsafe and he hasn't won at this time of year

COLOURBEARER is 9 years old
If I look at 9 year olds from 6f races
Running on the last 2 weeks all 33 that tried lost
COLOURBEARER is therefore not like a winner
He may pop up but there are safer choices

COMPTON PRINCE is not a negative
But average profile and Stall 12 could hurt him
If you look at horses aged 7 or more
Who have raced over 6f here since 2008
Those drawn 11 or higher had a 0-62 record
None have managed it any time of year since 2007
Just a quirky little draw /age combination stat
That puts me off COMPTON PRINCE

INDIAN AFFAIR has a chance
Profile acceptable without being brilliant
Main worry is this is not a time of year he wins
That could change at any time
But he has raced just once in 80 days
I'd prefer more recent runs to be honest

Shortlist

MUSICAL TASTE is a 3yo filly
JUMEIRAH STAR is a 3yo filly
Both are very similar types
Both unexposed
Both ran well in the same race last time
Both also share the same profile

Fillies aged 3
Between 13-14-15 runs
Coming from 6f handicaps
Running 13-17 days ago
Beaten under 5 lengths last time
Horses with this profile had a 2-4 record
They finished W 3 W 3
The 2013 winner of this race had this profile

MUSICAL TASTE has this profile
JUMEIRAH STAR has this profile
A symmetrical shortlist

Selection

£4 Each Way JUMEIRAH STAR 6/1

£2 Win Bet MUSICAL TASTE 6/1

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