0 Bet today
0 Negative
1 Previews

This Tuesday lives up to most of them as the
weakest day of the week. Since Saturday we
have backed off dramatically. I've taken some
downtime to freshen up for the battles ahead.
I badly needed to slow it down after 3 months
of the season. We are not even half way yet.

Today is another short message with just one
preview. Tomorrow we will start to increase
the workload once again cover a bit more and
slowly get the messages back to a normal size.



T o d a y s M e s s a g e

No Bets Again

One Preview

Pontefract 2.40

KINGTHISTLE 7/1

Win Bet



KINGTHISTLE ran yesterday
It looks like they are running again
I think they should as I feel it is a big advantage

If KINGTHISTLE is a Non Runner
This would be my replacement selection
£5 Each Way EMERALD ASSET 20/1

In the hope that KINGTHISTLE runs
I would make him the days best bet



Daily Negatives

No Negative Today

Results of Negatives
26 correct bets from 35






M o n d a y s R e v i e w

I suppose it is fair to call it a mixed day yesterday.
We got the first race wrong and the 2nd race right.
The Devon Drum race went too the favourite just
the start I did not want. Twice now in 2016 the stat
about Oasis Dream has failed and that means this
is time to downgrade the significance of that angle.
I will be very careful before I use it again. We got
the primary negative right though. Rainfall Radar
did not stay and was unplaced. My main selection
against her was a Non runner but the save won so
you might argue he was the replacement selection.
Doesn't really matter as nothing was staked but I
felt we had the moral victory in that preview which
in my view levelled things up for a fair scoring draw.



P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s


P o n t e f r a c t 2.40

9/2 Semana Santa, 6/1 Wilde Extravagance
7/1 Consulting, 7/1 Kingthistle, 7/1 Swirral Edge
8/1 Harmonic Wave, 8/1 Mr Orange, 10/1 Emerald Asset
14/1 Market Choice, 16/1 French, 16/1 Gowanless
20/1 New Road Side.

This is a 0-75 handicap over a Mile for 3yo's
I have looked at 152 similar races at this time of year

CONSULTING has raced just once this season
Every other horse has had more recent runs
I feel there will be fitter horses

SEMANA SANTA has a very average profile
FIllies like her from 5f handicaps beaten last time
When having under 5 career starts
Had a 0-12 record so she is not like a winner
I don't like his sire much either
The sire's runners over 5f are 0-31 so far

NEW ROAD SIDE has a weak profile and draw

MARKET CHOICE has not hit form yet this year
I think he will need another run before he does
He has not done enough this year so far
Neither has FRENCH either
Down in trip she may need another run as well
GOWANLESS has a weak profile
Winning on her racecourse debut is never a help

WILDE EXTRAVAGANCE has a 43 day absence
Every other horse has a run within 19 days
He is absent over twice as long as any other runner
I see that as a disadvantage over 5f
Not a negative but not my first choice

SWIRRAL EDGE has an average profile
Enough not to be a negative
But I do prefer one or two others

HARMONIC WAVE is respected
I have a couple of small concerns
I'd have liked another race this season
She is only a filly and has raced just twice this year
Stall 2 may not be ideal either
If I look at recent races over 5f here with 9 + runners
Recent winners were drawn as follows
10 6 10 6 15 7 14 4 8 12 1 8
Only 1 of the last 12 winners were drawn lower than 4

MR ORANGE comes out like 1 winner
But has never raced over 5f before
I can see him winning soon
But I'd be worried 5f would be a bit sharp
He has never travelled over 6f sweetly enough
To be confident he will be at his best over this distance

Shortlist

KINGTHISTLE ran over 6f yesterday
If he runs he needs serious consideration
If he runs he is Number 1 choice

EMERALD ASSET has a solid profile
Difficult to read sire
This horses best numbers are on softer ground
The Sire's record suggests he wants firmer ground
His offspring on softer than good are 1-74
If faster ground improves him he could win this


Selection

KINGTHISTLE 7/1

Win Bet


If KINGTHISTLE is a Non Runner later on
This would be my selection
£5 Each Way EMERALD ASSET 20/1


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