0 Account Bet
0 Negative
7 Previews


7 Meetings
7 Previews
This has never been a busy Saturday for us
It feels steady rather than spectacular
More competent rather than creative
Most bets today are in the 4/1 to 8/1 range
No star performers just solid squad players
Therefore no staked bet this Saturday
2 highlighted horses from the 7 races




T o d a y s M e s s a g e


A One off Column today
Called it "Not Included "
Probably a load of old tosh

I don't think there is a stand out bet
That deserves to be staked over another
There are a couple of races
That have the potential to offer big winners
But not all of these can be relied upon

I like the 8.15 Newcastle but thats dangerous
I would collapse the market for starters
And these are useless and unreliable horses

I love the Lingfield 3.10
But the staking is over-complicated
And the trainer of my bet unpalatable
At least in terms of a staked bet

If I look at the 7 Previews
The selections in them are these prices
6/1 4/1 6/1 8/1 5/2 7/1 7/1

All pretty much similar prices
Not one that stands out as superior
I could guess one and see what happens
But I am not going to do that on the account
Maybe we should leave it until tomorrow
The Cambridgeshire Grand National perhaps !



Today's Highlighted Bets


I ma highlighting 2 Bets


Navan 3.20

CAMLANN 5/2

Each Way

I would not want to "account" him each way
And feel free to have a win only bet if you prefer
But my personal choice of today's best bet
Would be to side with this horse
Who should win if he is stays
And if nothing improves significantly
The each way part is rather ugly
But offers me protection from either happening


Newbury 2.05

£8.50 Win Bet HARRY TOPPER 7/2
£1.50 Win Bet SHOTAVODKA 7/1

There is a case for going each way
Had Harry Topper been a bit bigger
Then I might have gone each way
Swings and roundabouts but he's only 7/2
I seem to constantly oppose this horse
unusual for me to side with him today
But he has the best profile by some way








F r i d a y ' s S u m m a r y

There were 7 previews yesterday
These finished P L P P W L L
The top of the message finished ahead
The bottom part finished behind
There was no staked bet on the day
Overall we just finished a bit behind

My 2 best bets were a winner and loser
The winner was SPLIT THE ATOM 11/4
He won easily but was hammered into evens
That was a ridiculous price much as he did win
We've seen it before with a Dundalk night bet
The market there must be weak as a kitten

The top of the message winning did matter
It put some gloss on a very average message
There will have been winners and losers from it





Not Included

Some things I wanted to include today
That did not end up in the message
Other than being summarised below

First up is an Account Bet today !
We are due one after a quiet week
It is a fair assumption Saturday should offer on
But I am going to leave it today
I don't feel there is one stand out bet
The Top of the message will give my best bet
I am going to talk about account bets tomorrow

I wanted to mention tonight's Boxing
Anyone who saw their physiques yesterday
Will probably agree David Haye will beat Tony Bellew
He is a 1/5 chance to do that
I was thinking of mentioning a double or treble
Decided against Manchester United at 1/4

ICARIO 4/6 was an option in the 2.10 Navan
A double 4/6 and 1/5 comes out as Even Money
I just don't feel I can rule out A Year To Remember
Just putting me off he is a Colt not a Gelding
Personally I think I would rather split stake this
ICARIO 4/6 to Win
A YEAR TO REMEMBER 4/6 to Place

David Haye 1/5 in the Boxing
Could be doubled with Bargy Lady 2.45 Navan
That comes out as a 4/6 winner
If you wanted to nick a bit more
You could consider ICARIO as a treble
Or either Manchester Clubs in the football

I thought about previewing the Doncaster 1.50
It was just too hard though
Just for the record my Breeding stats
Could only endorse 4 of these runners
BRYDEN BOY -THE ORGANIST
WHATAKNIGHT - SEEFOOD







P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s



L i n g f i e l d 2.00

9/4 Fabulous Flyer, 5/1 Frank The Barber
6/1 Deer Song, 6/1 Roy´s Legacy, 7/1 Willow Spring
10/1 Red Flute, 12/1 The Wee Chief
14/1 Ask The Guru 25/1 Molly Jones.

Low Grade 5f Handicap
Poor horses rated between 48 and 55
There are 46 similar races at this time of year
Interesting 45 of the 46 winners
Had a race within the previous 49 days
That puts me off THE WEE CHIEF
He is 11 years old and absent 224 days

ASK THE GURU is hard to read
I don't like his 43 day absence as a 7yo
I dislike his draw a lot as well
But he has the best 5f Lingfield numbers

WILLOW SPRING has a lot to prove
Dislike her sire and her numbers are low
MOLLY JONES wont be fit enough
RED FLUTE isn't running well enough
DEER SONG has a 0-25 career record
Clearly not an easy horse to win with
Throw in the least effective jockey in the race
And I think there is enough to look elsewhere

I think we have to navigate towards the topweights

Shortlist

FRANK THE BARBER
ROY´S LEGACY
FABULOUS FLYER

Any of these could win
Reliability is an issue with horses and trainers
FRANK THE BARBER should go quite well
He has by far the best jockey of the three
ROY´S LEGACY is a good price and reliable
I didn't expect much from his Southwell run last time
He is consistent enough and the best price of the 3
And his price allows for a saver

Selection

I think I have the winner shortlisted
But it is down to luck from here

£4 Each Way ROY´S LEGACY 6/1

£2 FRANK THE BARBER 9/2








N e w b u r y 2.05

9/2 Harry Topper, 9/2 O´faolains Boy, 6/1 Loose Chips
7/1 Rocky Creek, 7/1 Shotavodka, 10/1 Just A Par
10/1 Katenko, 10/1 No Duffer, 14/1 Goulanes
14/1 Seventh Sky, 16/1 Al Co, 33/1 Turban.

This is a 3m 2f Veterans Handicap Chase

There are a few in this race I would avoid
Some of them are just too far out of form
Or horses you could not trust to bounce back
SEVENTH SKY is one of those
Beaten 95 lengths only 10 days ago
I find it hard to see him bouncing back today
TURBAN has been running badly for too long
ROCKY CREEK has 2 heavy defeats in a row
Hard to forgive him that with Topweight
JUST A PAR has 2 runs this year
Both were disappointing and he pulled up last time
I'd be worried he was here for a Grand National prep

Others I would oppose may lack fitness
O´FAOLAINS BOY is in this category
His run 2 weeks ago was his first in a year
He Pulled up at Ascot his first run since March 2016
Described as a very fragile horse
No sign of form or fitness I would avoid him
KATENKO looks underraced
He has ran twice since last years Grand National
Both runs heavy defeats I question his fitness
GOULANES has raced just once since 2014
AL CO is a 12 and the oldest horse in the race
One bad race since last June is not enough
NO DUFFER is a 10 year old
I can't rule him out with any killer angles
But hard to see enough positives to select


Shortlist

I would rather have a 10yo
They have a 7-38 record iu this race
Horses aged 11 or more are just 1-39

LOOSE CHIPS does have positives
Fit and running well unlike many of these
He is 11 though and I would prefer a 10yo
He is also 0-15 racing on left handed tracks
The track would have to be a worry
I think the limit of his profile is possible saver

SHOTAVODKA won this last year
We backed him last year with a good profile
His individial profile applies again this year
Hurdles and Chases
January to May
Running within a Month
Class 2 or lower
Fields of 16 or lower
Ground softer than good
When racing under these circumstances
SHOTAVODKA has a 6-11 record

HARRY TOPPER has a good profile
Horses aged 10
Under 15 Chase starts
Running within 3 months
Beaten under 10 lengths last time
Had a 6-12 record in this race
HARRY TOPPER shares this 6-12 record
The 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 winners of this
All shared the above profile
If you go with horses that ran within a month
Tha 6-12 record becomes a 5-7 record
HARRY TOPPER has the best profile

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet HARRY TOPPER 7/2

£1.50 Win Bet SHOTAVODKA 7/1





L i n g f i e l d 3.10

9/4 Miss Mirabeau, 7/2 Cold Fire, 4/1 Daring Guest
6/1 Allegheny Bay, 10/1 Beach Dancer
10/1 Shouldertoshoulder, 14/1 Sparkling Cossack
16/1 Amber Mischief, 66/1 Pocket Warrior.

This is a all aged maiden over 6f

MISS MIRABEAU is a 3yo filly
She comes from a 5f race and has 1 previous race
MISS MIRABEAU is similar to 1 winner
That was a horse called Five Gold Rings
So I can not call her a negative
But that horse did run better than she did last time
I started off wanting to oppose her
But as you get into the race it is harder to do that

SPARKLING COSSACK has 2 poor numbers
Her stablemate COLD FIRE was 50/1 on his debut
Neither of this yards horses offered much excitement

If I look at once raced 4 year olds
They have 1-31 record
Those beaten a length or more were 0-25 in similar races
COLD FIRE has this very ordinary profile

BEACH DANCER has raced twice before
Racing Post Ratings of 21 and 48 are not very good
I would want a rating at least high 50's

DARING GUEST is a positive
I like his experience and don't mind his absence
I can not match him to a winner though

ALLEGHENY BAY offers most on paper
Running in a 0-80 handicaps just 8 days ago
Every one of his opponents in that race
Are better than all of today's opponents
He set a very fast pace over 7f before fading
He was in front 2 out and bang there 1f out
On that run ALLEGHENY BAY must go well
One worry is he comes from a disappointing stable
The yards strike rate dropped to 3.62% last year (8-221)
It was there worst season in over 20 years
Stables like this are hard to trust with bets

Normally I would go each way
But given the unreliability of the stable
I think we can bet 3 here

£5 Win Bet ALLEGHENY BAY 6/1

£4 Win Bet MISS MIRABEAU 5/4

£1 Win Bet DARING GUEST 7/1

We will make a small loss if either saver wins
But nothing that is going to matter much
This feels saver to me than a Stan Moore e/w bet




N e w b u r y 3.15

11/4 Oldgrangewood, 9/2 Vic De Touzaine
11/2 Vibrato Valtat, 8/1 Hollywoodien, 9/1 O Maonlai
9/1 Thomas Crapper, 10/1 Dresden, 10/1 More Buck´s
12/1 Tornado In Milan, 20/1 Shadows Lengthen.

This is a Grade 3 Handicap Chase over 2m 4f
Newbury have 13 renewals of this race
I do like the angles in this race

Horses aged aged 6 7 8 have dominated
If you go back to every renewal since 2007
Horses aged 9 or more have a 0-54 record

Recent winners of this had the following Chase runs
4 9 13 8 11 15 9 12 10

Recent winners of this had the following runs that season
4 4 5 3 3 6 2 3 5 7 5 4

So we want a horse aged 6 7 8
with under 16 Chase races
With at least 2 runs this season
There are 3 horses that share this profile

HOLLYWOODIEN
MORE BUCK´S
OLDGRANGEWOOD

O MAONLAI is older than ideal
He Pulled up last time which doesn't help
He is yet to win beyond a Class 3 race
It makes him harder to like in this class
DRESDEN has positives
But a 9yo with 19 Chase runs is not ideal
I don't want to go with Horses aged 11
TORNADO IN MILAN is therefore rejected
SHADOWS LENGTHEN is also rejected
We know horses aged 9 + are 0-54 since 2007
THOMAS CRAPPER is 10 and not the right type
VIC DE TOUZAINE only has 1 run this season
All his opponents have had more
So did all past winners of the race as well

Better profiles

HOLLYWOODIEN
MORE BUCK´S
OLDGRANGEWOOD

OLDGRANGEWOOD passes the main angle
But interesting in the 13 renewals
Horses that won last time out were 0-28
OLDGRANGEWOOD fails this 0-28 record

MORE BUCK´S has doubts of his own
No winners came from Novice Handicap Chases

HOLLYWOODIEN has 56 days off
12 of the 13 winners raced within 42 days

VIBRATO VALTAT has 19 Chase runs
More exposed than I'd like and topweight
But maybe we need to overlook that
The 2011 winner was the same age
He came from the same trial race with 15 runs
So I feel I can overlook this horses 19 Chase runs
One of the main reasons I want to do that is class

VIBRATO VALTAT is rated 152
He only has a 0-143 Class field to beat
He is fit and running very well
His last 5 Racing Post Ratings
Are higher than his handicap mark of 152
My biggest worry is the field size
He has only won in fields of 5 or smaller
I'm going to give him a chance with savers

Selection

£4 Each Way VIBRATO VALTAT 8/1

£1 Win HOLLYWOODIEN 9/1

£1 Win MORE BUCK´S 9/1




N a v a n 3.20

5/2 Camlann, 11/2 Monastic, 6/1 Close Shave
7/1 Like A Demon, 8/1 Crehelp, 10/1 Canadian Steel
12/1 Dontbackme, 12/1 Dubai Devils, 14/1 Bilbo Bagins
14/1 Thekingofrocknroll, 20/1 War Of The Pennys
25/1 For Freddie, 50/1 Redoute Star.

2m 4f Handicap Hurdle

Controversial selection
But I like CAMLANN each way 5/2
I would rather not have to do this
But there are one or two things bothering me
Such as whether this is the limit of his stamina
And how much improvement some others make

My case for CAMLANN is based on Class
He only realistically has a 0-109 class field to beat
He was cruising last time but didn't get home
This is an easier test and he will be better ridden
Significant upgrade in Jockey
His Racing Post Ratings stand out to me
His last 3 runs were 124 128 127
He only has a Handicap mark of 116 to defy
And most of his rivals are miles behind on the numbers
I would like to think the class horse will show this
But the each way bet could be important

I can't have CLOSE SHAVE against him
Not starting 66/1 in a Maiden hurdle
My statistics do not support me here though
They argue his profile is not as bad as I think
But I will be disappointed if he beats me
I feel the same about DUBAI DEVILS
He has 340 days off and a 7lbs claimer
DONTBACKME fails my breeding stats
CREHELP has inexperience and weak numbers
Several others have form and fitness issues
CANADIAN STEEL being one not doing well enough

LIKE A DEMON could improve
But he was a cheap horse who flopped last time
He has positives but it is a leap of faith risking him

MONASTIC could be a threat
But if I look at similar races
And 5 year olds down from 3m races
Those absent over 10 days were 0-39
MONASTIC has 7 weeks off and fails that

I prefer CAMLANN
He has class and momentum
He should be involved in the finish
Whether something nails him late I don't know
But I don't think many will cope with him

Selection

CAMLANN 5/2

Each Way




D o n c a s t e r 3.35

3/1 Definitly Red, 7/2 The Last Samuri
7/2 Yala Enki, 9/2 Looking Well, 7/1 Sego Success
11/1 Wakanda, 12/1 Vivaldi Collonges.

The Grimthorpe is a Class 2 Handicap Chase
It is run over 3 miles and 2 furlongs

THE LAST SAMURI has too mach against him
Not least his weight combined with a nasty absence
Lightweights have a far better record than his type
He is being trained for the Grand National anyway
VIVALDI COLLONGES is also Aintree bound
I don't see enough reason to bet him here
WAKANDA pulled up just 2 weeks ago
Too close to a poor run to be of significant issue
LOOKING WELL would not be my first choice
He has raced just once since May 2016
All his rivals have the advantage of more recent runs

Shortlist

YALA ENKI has a good chance
What bothers me is his age
He is 7 the youngest horse in the race
The only winners of this race aged under 8
Were in small fields over 16 years ago
Since 2011 all 15 horses that aged have lost
Several have been second though
So a 0-15 statistic hardly rules him out

DEFINITLY RED has every chance
I have not selected him for one reason
If he wins it will affect his Grand National chance
It would mean he probably gets over 11st
His connections will know this
34k for winning this 561k for winning a National
They may just prefer not to win

SEGO SUCCESS pulled up last time
I don't mind that as he has an absence
Hard to read and hard to catch right
But he has only won in fields of 10 or smaller
And being sired by Beneficial
Tells me he probably does not stay 3m 3f or more
Combine his Chase runs over shorter in small fields
You find he has a better 3-5 record doing this

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet SEGO SUCCESS 7/1

£2.50 Win Bet YALA ENKI 7/2

£2.50 Win Bet DEFINITLY RED 100/30




W o l v e r h a m p t o n 8.15

11/4 Alfolk, 3/1 Hollywood Harry, 4/1 Annie Apple
5/1 African Grey, 11/2 Panther In Pink, 14/1 Kazanan
16/1 Rey Loopy, 25/1 Albizu Campos.

3yo Handicap over 7f
These are all pretty useless

I have ALFOLK as a negative
Down from 10f to 7f is a big problem

3yo Handicaps over 7f
January February March
Horses down from 10f to 7f
Have a 0-37 record during these months
ALFOLK fails this 0-37 record

3yo Handicaps over 7f
Any Time of year
Any Class of race
Horses down from 10f to 7f
Running within 2 months
Under 4 career starts
Have a 0-31 record all year round
ALFOLK fails this 0-31 record

HOLLYWOOD HARRY may not be fit
I have down as doubtful stayer anyway
The problem is nothing is easy to select

I don't know if African Grey is fit
And he is far from certain to stay 7f after an absence
Rey Loopy has a chance but a horrible stable
ANNIE APPLE was a possible each way bet
But the standard she sets is pretty low

If I look for horses that I think will stay
Who are also fit
There are 2 options I could turn to
ANNIE APPLE
PANTHER IN PINK

PANTHER IN PINK sets only a modest standard
But she has excuses and recent runs
May not have got home at Southwell last time
And she had Stall 13 of 13 which did not help
I think she is the best option with a saver

Selection

£4 Each Way PANTHER IN PINK 7/1

£2 Win Bet ANNIE APPLE 7/1

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