6 Races discussed
0 Staked Bet
3 Highlighted Races

The National is special but is a distraction
It tends to suck the life out of other cards
No big surprise with my National selection
I have been banging this drum for a while
I said the horse would no be a staked bet
We are not having any account bets today

Should return back to normal on Sunday
Hopefully after betting a National winner

Sundays message will have some variety
It will include some overweight golfers
And an expensive car that is up for sale
No Official Bet This Saturday




GRAND NATIONAL

Staked to £10

MORE OF THAT 14/1

£5.00 Win Bet

£2.00 Place Bet

£1.00 Saver UCELLO CONTI 20/1
£1.00 Saver PLEASANT COMPANY 16/1
£0.50 Saver VICENTE 25/1
£0.25 Saver THUNDER AND ROSES 40/1
£0.25 Saver MEASUREOFMYDREAMS 50/1

No horse with under 9 previous Chase starts
Has won a Grand National in recent memory
3 horses do this today and all make my shortlist
The times they are a changing

£5 Win Bet MORE OF THAT 14/1
£2 Place Bet MORE OF THAT 14/1
£3 Shared out on 5 savers

I think Ucello Conti deserves a higher stake
He is clear 2nd best and almost joint selection
He is hard done by with just a £1 stake
I've had a similar stake on him and More of That

If we try and predict the future
What type of horse will be winning future National's
It may well be horses like More Of That
And horses like PLEASANT COMPANY too
We will see today is the future has arrived





TODAY'S MESSAGE

6 Previews

Aintree 1.45
Leopardstown 1.50
Leopardstown 2.20
Aintree 2.25
Aintree 4.20
Aintree 5.15

Grand National is priority
Highlighting 3 races today
The Grand National is one


Leopardstown 1.50

MA FEE HEELA 100/30

Each Way

Fascinating race
Based on an unproveable madcap theory
A theory I have only used once before
I was right that day but not sure about today
Hard to stake an account bet on this race
Not so much because of the madcap theory
MA FEE HEELA's profile isn't safe enough
My main worry though is the market
The price may not hold up in a maiden
So I don't think we can stake a bet here
But like the National this one is fascinating


Aintree 2.25

£4.00 Each Way BRIO CONTI 9/2

£2.00 Win Bet MESSIRE DES OBEAUX 6/1

Interesting Graded Hurdle
I think Paul Nicholls may take this
We are betting the 2nd and 3rd favourites
There looks some questionable profiles elsewhere
I only split this pair on stable reliability







FRIDAYS REVIEW

Not much good yesterday
The National always gets in the way
It means I start Fridays message late
And that told with too many disappointments
Pleased none of them were official bets
But I expected better than we returned
The message went W L L P L L
Great start with the first race at Aintree
But it got a lot harder after that
My best bet (Sunset Sadie) came only 4th
I needed her to win to rescue the day
She didn't and overall it was all so ordinary





PROFILES & PREVIEWS


AINTREE 1.45

13/2 Barney Dwan, 7/1 No Hassle Hoff, 9/1 No Comment
11/1 For Good Measure, 12/1 Duke Street, 14/1 Forthefunofit
Fountains Windfall, Joe Farrell, Whataknight, Dadsintrouble
Mr McGo, 20/1 Briery Queen, Golden Doyen, The Tourard Man
Zarkandar, 25/1 Desert Cry, Holywell, Morello Royale
Rons Dream, 33/1 Doesyourdogbite, Splash Of Ginge
50/1 Leoncavallo.

Graded Handicap Hurdle over 3m +

NO HASSLE HOFF is a 5 year old favourite
Go back to 1998 and horses aged 5 were 1-41
That is a very poor return
The only winner aged 5 was a 50/1 shock in 2009
Given he is absent 49 days as well I avoid him

I am against all the other 5 year olds as well
And against the horses aged 10 or more
None of whom have won in the last 20 renewals
I am against the 9 year olds as well
Against the horses failing my breeding stats
Such as FOUNTAINS WINDFALL by Passing Glance
I'm against horses very lightly raced recently

It really wasn't worth an expansive preview
The only reason I did the race
Was my angles got the first race winner yesterday
I came down to a shortlist of 3 horses
And this is how I staked them

Selection

£2.50 Each Way NO COMMENT 11/1

£2.00 Each Way FOR GOOD MEASURE 14/1

£1.00 Win Bet BARNEY DWAN 8/1






LEOPARDSTOWN 1.50

7/4 Music Box, 100/30 Ma Fee Heela, 5/1 World Tax War
6/1 So You Thought, 8/1 Free Ranger, Irishcorrespondent
10/1 Cannonball, 20/1 Born To Play, Wimbourne
25/1 Discovery Lad, 33/1 Uno Momento, 40/1 Favorite Story
40/1 Regnum, 66/1 Great Uncle, 100/1 Scurlogstown Lad.

This is a 3yo maiden over 8f
Interesting on a number of levels

MUSIC BOX is Aidan O'Brien
She finished 3rd on her debut at Dundalk 8 days ago
The Stewards felt She should have done better
They Hinted that She was a non trier
They Banned the horse for 42 days
Suspended the Jockey
Fined the trainer E2,000

I presume MUSIC BOX is running 8 days later
As Aidan O'Brien has appealed this decision
Aidan O'Brien will be furious he has been fined
He will feel it is a stain on his integrity
Although I have no data to back my theory up
It is a theory I have often mentioned before
That when a horse is labelled as a non trier
They rarely win next time out
The reason for this is very simple
It allows the authorities to feel vindicated
They can say we spotted a naughty boy
We fined him and now he has gone and won
So we were right and knew he was capable of better

If MUSIC BOX gets beaten today
And beaten with a different world class jockey on board
It gives Aidan O'Brien the advantage
He can say there were genuine excuses for her defeat
That it was the Stewards that were wrong
And not him and not the horse
I may be wrong and this is instinct not data
But I never bet a horse under these circumstances
Maybe Aidan won't care and it may go over his head
But I think being accused on having a non trier
Will annoy him and his defense can only be stronger
If MUSIC BOX fails to get the job done today
And for that reason alone I am opposing him

WORLD TAX WAR raced once last season
My problem with him is Drawn 14 of 14

Since 2012
8f races at Leopardstown
Under 20 runners
Horses drawn 12 or higher
With under 8 career starts
Have a 0-59 record
WORLD TAX WAR has this 0-59 record
That draw would put me off

If you look at that 0-59 statistic
MUSIC BOX also technically fails it
She is drawn 13 of 14 and has under 8 runs
I have opposed her on the "stewards" argument
But that aside I don't like her draw much

CANNONBALL is unraced drawn 12
He fails the same 0-59 draw statistic
FAVOURITE STORY also fails it too

IRISHCORRESPONDENT is badly drawn
I do not bet stall 1 here over 8f if I can help it

SO YOU THOUGHT is unraced
Difficult to read sire and trainer
Must be a good chance he needs the run

Shortlist

FREE RANGER is unraced
No real opinion about him
His main claim is the negatives for other horses
Increase his chance of winning
Whether he is any good or here to win who knows

MA FEE HEELA is interesting
Normally I would be very worried about her
A horse going from 6f to 8f
Having raced just once 13 days ago
A horse called Sir Billy Nick has done it though

MA FEE HEELA ran at Naas last time
I opposed him that day
He was hammered in the market
I said in the message he was the "money horse"
I opposed him as he was drawn 19 of 20
He failed a 0-46 draw statistic and that hurt him
With a Racing Post Rating of 81
Earnt on debut from a bad draw
I don't doubt he has the ability to take this

I don't really have any sensible alternatives
As I am locked into my "stewards theory"
And have problems with all sensible alternatives

Selection

MA FEE HEELA 100/30

Each Way






LEOPARDSTOWN 2.20

9/4 Taj Mahal, 3/1 Orderofthegarter
4/1 Firey Speech, 6/1 Glastonbury Song
8/1 Zorion 8/1 Spanish Tenor
25/1 Maximus Daia.

Trial race for the 2000 Guineas
Past winners had the following runs
3 1 3 2 5 3 2 2 3 3 5 4 2 2 3 3 2 2 3 5 4
Only 1 of the last 21 winners had 1 career start
That race in 2015 was a very small field
The only 2 fancied horses that year had 1 run
I am opposing the horses with 1 run
GLASTONBERRY SONG has 1 career race
If you look at his sire Casamento
His runners over 8f or more are 1-56
That winner came on sand in Class 4
Those that raced over 8f + on Grass are 0-23
GLASTONBERRY SONG may not stay anyway
ZORION is also opposed with 1 race
If you look at his sire Smart Strike
His sires runners over a mile or more
With under 5 career starts
Have a 0-25 record in Class 2 or higher
Messy angle but he is not safe on breeding stats
MAXIMUM DAIA won a maiden last week
Didn't do enough to think he may win this

Aidan O'Brien has a poor 2-21 record in this race
Both his winners came in small 4 runner fields
He had 2 of the 4 runners in one race
His win in last years race we against non stayers
His runners consistently underperform in this

He runs ORDEROTHEGARTER
He has just won a maiden on his third start
That shouldn't be good enough
Aidan O'Brien also runs TAJ MAHAL
He has the form to win but has a bad draw
Stall 1 here is a very difficult draw to win from

SPANISH TENOR looks unlikely to win
Took him 3 runs to win a maiden
Look at his trainer Timothy Doyle
His record with 3 year olds is only 4-198
Only had 4 win and this is a Classic trial
His record with horses absent 92 + days is 1-148
His Male horses absent over 92 days are 0-87
Suggests to me he wont be taking this


FIREY SPEECH has a sound chance
That's assuming he is fit and well
In light of the above I will go with him
But I will need a saver from Coolmore
No idea which of their runners is best
But ORDEROTHEGARTER is better drawn
And is much stronger in the market

Selection

£6 Win Bet FIREY SPEECH 9/2

£4 Win Bet ORDEROTHEGARTER 2/1








AINTREE 2.25

11/4 Finian's Oscar, 4/1 Brio Conti, 9/2 Le Breuil
6/1 Messire Des Obeaux, 6/1 Lough Derg Spirit
14/1 Captain Forez, 16/1 Cultivator, 20/1 La Bague Au Roi
25/1 Reivers Lad, 25/1 Benatar, 33/1 Chelsea Flyer
33/1 Bordeaux Bill, 50/1 Bel Ami De Sivola

Grade 1 Novice Hurdle over 2m 4f

Several in with a chance
There is one statistic that knocks a few out
Our chances may depend on how this angle works out

Horses from Non Graded Hurdles
Have a 2-57 record in this race
Both winners doing this had just 1 hurdle run
Horses from Non Graded Hurdles
With 2 or more hurdle runs
Have a 0-46 record in this race

LOUGH DERG SPIRIT fails this 0-46 statistic
CAPTAIN FOREZ fails this 0-46 statistic
CULTIVATOR fails this 0-46 statistic
LE BREUIL fails this 0-46 statistic
BENATAR fails this 0-46 statistic
BORDEAUX BILL fails this 0-46 statistic
REIVERS LAD fails this 0-46 statistic
CHELSEA FLYER fails this 0-46 statistic

LE BREUIL only has 2 previous hurdle runs
Horses like him aged 5 or older
Had 3 5 5 7 8 6 4 4 3 6 5 9 4 5 4 5 hurdle runs
That makes him look too inexperienced

FINIANS OSCAR only has 3 career runs
Whilst the odd winner has won with 3 hurdle runs
None were as inexperienced as just 3 career starts
That stops him being shortlisted
He may still win and that won't be a surprise
But I think I'd prefer more experience
His main rivals have more and a more recent run

Go back to 1998 in this race
All bar 1 winner raced within 39 days
All winners since 1998 ran within 47 days
FINIANS OSCAR has 55 days absence
He would be the longest absent winner since 1997
Not to mention the least experienced as well

Shortlist

BRIO CONTI is a fast improving handicapper
Paul Nicholls has won this race with a handicapper

MESSIRE DES OBEAUX Placed in the Neptune


Selection

£4.00 Each Way BRIO CONTI 9/2

£2.00 Win Bet MESSIRE DES OBEAUX 6/1







ASCOT 4.20

13/8 Yanworth, 4/1 Cole Harden, 13/2 Ballyoptic
Supasundae, 10/1 Snow Falcon, 12/1 Ptit Zig
16/1 Aux Ptits Soins, Different Gravey, Taquin Du Seuil
25/1 Three Musketeers, 50/1 Puffin Billy.

The Liverpool Hurdle is a Grade 1 over 3 miles

We have good and bad days in this game
This message last year was one of my best days
One of my worst mistakes for a while though
Was YANWORTH in the Champion Hurdle
When I had said I fancied the winner weeks before
When I have been hammering his sire for years
I still can't believe I went for a Norse Dancer
In a race like the Champion Hurdle

Many people are in the 3m mile camp
They argue YANWORTH requires this distance
I am not one of them at all
I made him a negative at the 2016 Festival
In a race that was over 2m 5f
I did not and do not think he stays 3 miles
If I am wrong then he may go and win
But I can not bet him over 3 miles
Not only may he fail for a lack of stamina
No past winner of this came from a 2m race
Almost all of them came from 3 mile races
I can't have YANWORTH from a 2m race
The reason I think he lost in the Champion
Is not because he wanted further
He is just bred by a quirky ungenuine sire

Past winners had the following Hurdle starts
10 12 10 21 17 11 7 17 17 12 8 8 9
I would want at least 8 hurdle runs
AUX PTITS SOINS only has 5
THREE MUSKETEERS only has 3 of them
TAQUIN DU SEUIL does not have 8 either
DIFFERENT GRAVY also fails this angle

Past winners had the following days absence
23 30 24 23 28 21 21 21 21 28 21 40 14
Long absences struggle in this race
PTIT ZIG off 70 days would be by far the longest

COLE HARDEN has an obvious chance
I opposed him at Cheltenham
Felt he was overrated and flattered
His Stayers hurdle win in 2015 was falsely run
I can't rule him out but he'd be a saver at best

BALLYOPTIC is in the same boat
Not overkeen and wouldn't be my first choice
I can't rule him out but he'd be a saver at best

Shortlist

SNOW FALCON 9/1

SUPASUNDAE 6/1

SUPASUNDAE won a Cheltenham Handicap
The 2014 winner did the same. Don't mind him

SNOW FALCON was a Stayers Hurdle 5th
Not sure he got up the hill


Selection

£4.00 Each Way SNOW FALCON 9/1

£2.00 Win Bet SUPASUNDAE 6/1






AINTREE 5.15

10/1 Definitly Red, 11/1 Vieux Lion Rouge, 12/1 More Of That
14/1 Blaklion, 12/1 Cause Of Causes, 14/1 One For Arthur,
14/1 The Last Samuri 16/1 Pleasant Company, Ucello Conti,
20/1 Saphir Du Rheu The Young Master, Vicente, Highland Lodge
25/1 Rogue Angel, 33/1 Just A Par, 33/1 Raz De Maree
33/1 Thunder And Roses Wonderful Charm, 40/1 Bless The Wings
33/1 Double Shuffle, Houblon Des Obeaux, 33/1 Le Mercurey
33/1 Measureofmydreams, Saint Are, Tenor Nivernais
50/1 Bishops Road, Doctor Harper, 50/1 Drop Out Joe,
50/1 Lord Windermere O'Faolains Boy, Perfect Candidate
50/1 Regal Encore, Roi Des Francs, Shantou Flyer, Stellar Notion
66/1 Wounded Warrior, 66/1 Ballynagour, Gas Line Boy
66/1 Goodtoknow Knock House, Sambremont, Viva Steve
100/1 Cocktails At Dawn, La Vaticane.

Last year we backed Rule The World at 50/1
It can only be downhill from that
I'd like to land back to back Nationals though

Based on the most recent research I have done
The chances are it will be a lighter raced winner
This is a recap of most recent winners

Recent winners had the following Chase runs
13 10 14 23 27 12 12 24 14 13 10 11
10 of the last 12 winners had under 15 Chase runs
That would have been inconceivable years ago
The distance has shortened and the fences easier
The race has changed over the years

We need to be more flexible than ever before
I wouldn't even rule out 7 year olds with confidence
It is not just this race going to lighter raced horses
Since 2014 in high class long distance chases
Lighter raced Chasers are virtually mopping up

Graded Handicap Chases
Since 2014
3m 4f or more
10 or more runners

There have been 32 of these races since 2014
30 of the 32 winners had 16 or fewer Chase runs

Those with 17 or more Chase runs just 2-134
Both winners were lightweights with recent runs
Rogue Angel in the 2016 Irish National
Wayward Prince in the 2015 Scottish National
Despite the need to be more flexible
We really want no more than 17 Chase runs


The Most Exposed Horses

32 Chase runs - Rogue Angel (20/1)
31 Chase runs - Houblon Des Obeaux (33/1)
31 Chase runs - Saint Are (33/1)
25 Chase runs - Ballynagour (66/1)
24 Chase runs - Tenor Nivernais (33/1)
22 Chase runs - Cause Of Causes (14/1)
22 Chase runs - Ucello Conti (16/1)
22 Chase runs - Goodtoknow (50/1)

I am looking for no more than 17 Chase starts
I am opposing all the above horses
Not all of these are easy to say goodbye to

ROUGE ANGEL is the most exposed horse this year
He has 72 days absence as well
We know the last 28 winners ran within 58 days
So I feel he is unacceptable on those grounds
Otherwise he ticks so many exciting boxes
Such as Sire and Connections and 5 runs this year
But If I go with him my research would be undermined

HOUBON DES OBEAUX is the 2nd most exposed
His Sire has a stamina index of only 9.7f
He from a French DaY French Dam
The Dam's Sire has a stamina index of 9.7f
Stamina Doubts and exposure put me off him
SAINT ARE I am happy to take on anyway
You want 2 or more runs this calendar year
He has raced just once since Dec 3rd and is 11

BALLYNAGOUR rejected as the 4th most exposed
Whose absent is longer than every winner in Decades
TENOR NIVERNAIS is the 5th most exposed horse
I don't see enough positives

CAUSE OF CAUSES is the 6th most exposed
I should downgrade his chance with 22 Chase runs
He has some magnificent achievements
3 Cheltenham Festival wins in 2015 2016 2017
He won the Cross Country at the Cheltenham Festival
Hard to know if he can peak again today
He doesn't look that well treated and isn't a big horse
But I still feel he deserves a lot more respect
His last run was a career best Racing Post Rating
I like his chance more than I should
But my angles are not supportive of his chance
He is a bit quirky and has plenty of bad days
He may have to do it the hard way from the back
And there are others I prefer a lot more
But he has something special about him as well

GOODTOKNOW looks too exposed
UCELLO CONTI should be rejected here
But he gets a free pass to the later stages


Over 17 Chase runs

I showed why you do not want over 17 Chase runs
This statistic could fail today and fail anyday
But in 32 high class Long distance chases since 2014
30 of the 32 winners did have 17 or fewer Chase runs
Which is a problem for these horse

20 Chase runs - Raz De Maree (25/1)
20 Chase runs - Just A Par (33/1)
20 Chase runs - Gas Line Boy (50/1)
20 Chase runs - Thunder And Roses (33/1)
19 Chase runs - Highland Lodge (25/1)
19 Chase runs - Wonderful Charm (33/1)
18 Chase runs - Lord Windermere (50/1)

RAZ DE MAREE would be rejected aged 12 anyway
JUST A PAR looks short of runs and stamina
LORD WINDERMERE is underraced this season
GAS LINE BOY not classy enough
HIGHLAND LODGE only has 1 run this season
I want at least 3 and ideally 4 and he is 11 years old
WONDERFUL CHARM looks an unlikely winner
His last Racing Post Rating that gives him a chance
Was back in 2015 and there are safer options

The rest of the field have under 18 Chase runs
That is ideally what we are looking for
But several have to be rejected on other angles

Horses aged 7 are traditionally awful
Not sure we can safely rule them out anymore
I certainly wouldn't want a 7yo weak in other ares
SHANTOU FLYER is 7 and has 11st 5lbs
Aintree Handicap Chases since 2000
Any and every distance
Horses aged 7 carrying 11st or more
Have a 0-69 record
SHANTOU FLYER shares this 0-69 profile
LE MERCUREY is also 7 years old
His sire has never had a winner over 3m 3f yet

DOUBLE SHUFFLE may only be 7
But he is strong in other areas
Comes here after a career best as well
He is not going to be my first choice though
Not having raced just once this calendar year
I do prefer others but he is not a negative
I am not opposing him as a 7 year old
I oppose him only as I like a few more

A Recent Run within 58 days is important
Look at the days absences past winners had
34 29 23 35 58 35 23 21 41 32 27 48 28
20 25 42 20 24 35 23 16 35 23 35 23 25
The past 26 winners all ran within 58 days
The Following horses are absent far too long

DROP OUT JOE and REGAL ENCORE
HIGHLAND LODGE already rejected fails this
BALLYNAGOUR already rejected fails this

BISHOPS ROAD fails this angle absent 70 days
He has had just 3 proper races in 14 months
The ground may be faster than he appreciates

ONE FOR ARTHUR has 84 days absence
That's much longer than any winner in decades
He has raced just once in 126 days
Having won last time he has a career high mark
He needs to bust a stat that's lasted decades to win

Runs That Season is important

The last 28 winners had the following runs that season
5 4 8 4 3 4 6 4 5 6 6 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 2 5 4 6 7 6

27 of the 28 winners had at least 3 runs that season
Only Miinnehoma 1994 won with 2 runs that year
He had 9 Chase starts and 17 career runs
I am opposing the following horses
Who have had under 3 runs this year

HIGHLAND LODGE and DROP OUT JOE
Both of these have already been rejected
O'FAOLAINS BOY only has 2 runs this season
COCKTAILS OF DAWN is underraced this year

VIEUX LION ROUGE only has 2 runs this year
Win lose or draw he can't be the right favourite
Not when 2 runs this year scores so consistently badly
Not when he has raced just once in once in 126 days
26 of the last 28 winners had at least 4 runs that season
Only 2 horses have won with under 4 races that season
Both horses very lightly raced

THE YOUNG MASTER looks underraced to me
Only 3 runs this season and finished just 2 of those
THE YOUNG MASTER is an 8yo
I don't like under 4 runs this season with an 8yo
This age group have won just 3 renewals in 33 years
They all had more runs that season than he does
THE YOUNG MASTER started life on the flat
His father was a flat horse with a stamina index of 8.8f
His Mother was a Flat horse who won a 5f maiden
His Grandparents were all flat horses !!!
That's hardly the profile of a National Winner

LE VATICANE makes no appeal as an 8yo mare
I don't fancy DOCTOR PARKES and question his guts
WOUNDED WARRIOR doesn't make much appeal
He may not get home anyway sired by Shantou
This sires runners over 3m 4f and more are 0-24
PERFECT CANDIDATE does not offer enough

Runs that Calendar Year
Number of race Since January 1st that year

Past winners had the following runs
2 2 3 2 3 2 3 1 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 4 3 2 3 3 4
20 of the last 21 winners
Had at least 2 runs since January 1st that year
Comply Or Die was the only exception
He had 2 runs since December 22nd the year before
Horses with under 2 runs in this period perform badly

THE LAST SAMURAI has this problem
He has raced once in 126 days
He was 22nd last year but has 12lbs more weight
Throw in Topweight and I don't see him doing it

VIEUX LION ROUGE already rejected fails this stat
ONE FOR ARTHUR already rejected fails this as well

BLACKLION fails it with just 1 run since Boxing day
That would worry me as would his size
He is also far from guaranteed to get home
He has one of the leading chances on recent form
Many like him but I just have others I prefer more
The last 21 winners had at least 2 runs since Jan 1st
BLACKLION does not do that so I am rejecting him

STELLAR NOTION has just 1 race in 2017
That is a problem and he has other problems
STELLAR NOTION has a 72 day absence
That's longer than all of the last 28 winners
These 2 stats appear hammer blows to his chance
Despite these serious problems I do like him
I am a sucker for his connections and his sire
I want to shortlist him but can not justify it

DEFINITLY RED is an 8yo
Only 3 of the last 33 winners were aged 8
These 3 winners had 14 15 15 Chase runs
DEFINITLY RED only has 9 Chase runs
I can live with that to be honest
My theme is lighter raced horses are best
He has to prove stamina though
If you look at his sire Definite Article
His National Hunt winners in Listed/Graded races
None have won beyond 3 miles yet
All 16 that tried were beaten
He has won 3 times already this season
That's probably not the best preparation to have
DEFINITLY RED can't be ruled him out
Not in the manner I would like to do
But I do prefer others
And at the prices I feel he is too short

SAPHIR DU RHEU is an 8yo
He is not sure to stay this far
His sire was a flat bred 10f horse
His Dam's Sire was Dom Pasquini
H had a stamina index of only 9.8f
The sires runners in Class 3 or higher
Have yet to win beyond 3m 1f
If he does stay then he could be the one
But a tough weight for an 8yo with stamina doubts

ROI DES FRANCS is an 8yo
He is in good form and lightly raced
He is a May Foal and technically not 8 yet
I do prefer to oppose those not quite 8 yet
Not enough to force him on the shortlist


POSSIBLES

MEASUREOFMYDREAMS 66/1
Unfortunately only has 2 runs this season
But he is one of the 3 lightest raced horses in the race
He is partly here just to provide that symmetry
To allow me to cover all the lightest raced horses
He has some very smart Chase form
Third in Cheltenham's 4 miler after just 2 Chase starts
He only needs to be forgiven a couple of races
I am betting the 1st and 3rd least experienced horse
MEASUREOFMYDREAMS is the 2nd least experience
He is 66/1 and it would be intolerable to watch him win
So he is a very cheap saver and offers symmetry

VICENTE is an 8yo
Laid out for the race all season
He won the Scottish National last year
Good sire and clear positive points
His age group would not be my first port of call
But if an 8yo wins he is as good as any
And in a portfolio of a few bets he is worth including
What worries me most is heavy defeats this year
He may not been here to do his best this year
But he has been beaten a long way
I just worry about his reliability
Last year he took in some big races
The 4 miler at Cheltenham
Winning the Scottish National
I am a bit worried that has bottomed him
I see him as a small saver to recoup stakes

THUNDER AND ROSES is a hard one to reject
Whilst he is not right with 20 Chase runs
He does have some brilliant positives elsewhere
Sire and Connections spring to mind
He has had 4 runs in 2017 and 7 this season
That could just be a huge advantage over some
If anything he could have too many recent runs
My angles will not support him
But he is over 40/1 and I think shortlistable

UCELLO CONTI presents me with a dilemma
22 Chase runs and the 7th most exposed horse
On those grounds he should be rejected
But I am going to give him the benefit of the doubt
14 of his 22 Chase races came in France
He has raced just 8 times in England and Ireland
That offers a genuine reason to mitigation
He has lots of positives in other areas
Fantastic connections and smells like a winner
He has had 3 prep runs since Christmas
UCELLO CONTI was 6th in last years race
Had a poor profile last year and lost 37 lengths
That performance is more than forgivable
In 2016 he had the longest absence in the race
Longer than any National winner in many decades
No better could have been expected for an 8yo
He was not actually 8 years old anyway
He was 7 years and 10 months old
Combine that with his absence and a weak profile
He only had 3 races last season as well
This year he is older
He has an extra 2 runs this season as well
And a much shorter absence as well
The ground is also a lot faster this year
UCELLO CONTI has to prove his stamina
His sire has a Graded winner over 3m 3f
His runners over 3m 4f and more are 0-14
I'd argue Inconclusive Breeding statistics
I think his run last year suggests he will stay
Given how much he had against him as well


PLEASANT COMPANY has 6 Chase runs
The previous 26 winners had the following Chase runs
13 10 14 23 27 12 12 24 14 13 10 11 37
41 14 12 24 17 25 10 23 16 9 14 28 14
PLEASANT COMPANY has 3 fewer than all of them
I am very keen to be very flexible now
When it comes to lightly raced chasers
I want him on my side giving connections and sire

Would it requite that extreme an act of forgiveness
To bet him to win a National with 6 chase runs
The 4th in 2012 (Cappa Blue) had just 6 chase runs
Mely Moss was 2nd with 5 Chase starts
Lord Atterbury was 3rd in 2004 with 4 Chase starts
Last years 2nd (The Last Samurai) had 8 Chase runs
He only completed in 7 of them and almost won
There are precedents and the race is easier now
He does have just 2 runs that year which is a worry
But with a lightly raced horse I can embrace that more
PLEASANT COMPANY's last run was a lifetime best
And whilst none have won anywhere like him
Perhaps This type are the future in this race
And that future could Easily start this year


MORE OF THAT is the class horse
Unusual for me to fancy a Beneficial over this far
But I think there is stamina from the distaff side
Only beaten 9 lengths in the Gold Cup
His trainer has always thought he was Grade 1 class
He only has 8 Chase starts
He's be least experienced to win for a long time
I am not too worried about that
The winners of this are only getting lighter raced
Only a matter of time before one wins like him

Jonjo Speaks with Forked Tongue

Quote

He's not the horse he was. He's the best I've trained
but you're not going to see that because he's had two
wind operations. At the start of the season I thought
he was a Gold Cup horse and he is a Gold Cup horse,
but, like a crashed car, a horse who has had problems
like he's had is never the same. He is in great form,
though, and I think he has a great chance."

Any problems he has had
Could have been down to his ridiculous campaign
Look at his 8 Chase runs

W W 3 PU 3 6 UR 6

WON his first Chase
WON his 2nd Chase

3rd in the RSA
I made him a massive negative that day
Longest absence in decades
Least experienced in 50 years
Wrong aged as well
Finishing 3rd was a great run

His 4th race over fences
PU at Cheltenham November 2016
It was his seasonal debut
He failed 0-111 and 1-115 statistics
The completely wrong type that day
And we made him a big negative

3rd in the Peterborough Chase
Chances are he wasn't fit or trying
Jonjo isn't bothered about pre Christmas races

6th in the Lexus Chase
Starting his countdown to Cheltenham
It was his best run of the year

UR in the Irish Gold Cup
He was already a Grade 1 Hurdle winner
Could have been a Grade 1 Chase winner
Had he not unseated at the last in the Irish Gold Cup
He had every chance and the horse that took advantage
Went on and won the Cheltenham Gold Cup
This was a career best Racing Post Chase rating

6th in the Cheltenham Gold Cup
Another career best Racing Post Chase rating
Not bad as he was the least experienced horse
That rating suggests he is very well handicapped


Staking

MORE OF THAT 14/1

£5.00 Win Bet

£2.00 Place Bet

£1.00 Saver UCELLO CONTI 20/1
£1.00 Saver PLEASANT COMPANY 16/1
£0.50 Saver VICENTE 25/1
£0.25 Saver THUNDER AND ROSES 40/1
£0.25 Saver MEASUREOFMYDREAMS 50/1

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