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3 Previews

Today's Racing analysis is hardly piercing
3 Previews and none are taken to the limit
I did have 4 previews but I have lost one
Has an end of the week feel to the message
I didn't see much that I wanted to expand on

I have added some Cheltenham thoughts
Mainly in the Gold Cup and Supreme Novice
I have also looked at A New Style Of Betting
Which I think it has fascinating advantages



Today's Bet

No Staked Bet






T o d a y s M e s s a g e


I am going to back off a bit today

Exeter is not very inviting
Couple of big fields and an unbackable favourite
There were not many races there I had a view about
Unusually for me I have done just the Bumper

Sedgefield has survived an inspection
I have lost a selection now in the 2.10 race
I was going to oppose the favourite in this race

Leopardstown have a card of trials
The ground has turned heavy there
Nothing here except the Hunter Chase

No Highlighted Bets Today

Not decided about Monday

Don't presume there wont be a message

Will depend on what Catterick offers us


Daily Negatives
No Official Negatives
31 correct bets from 45







Cheltenham Gold Cup

Just a few thoughts about Saturdays Racing
And how that might affect the Cheltenham Festival

NATIVE RIVER won nicely at Newbury
He is now a solid 4/1 chance in the Gold Cup
II was impressed with his run
It removed a couple of doubts you could have had
Like the effects of winning the Hennessy/Welsh National
Still a bit early for final decisions
But NATIVE RIVER each way 4/1 does appeal
I would think that is my most likely final selection
I feel he has a massive chance


Cheltenham Supreme Novice Hurdle

A few weeks ago I wrote the following
In the next 53 Days a horse aged 5 or 6
Will win a 2m hurdle in Class 3 or higher
This horse will be given a R.Post Rating OF 149 +
The horse or horses that do the above
Should include the Supreme Novice Hurdle winner
Saturday threw up 3 possible qualifiers

BALLYANDY (Won Betfair Hurdle)
MOVEWITHTHETIMES (2nd Betfair Hurdle)
HIGH RIDGE (Won Newbury Novice)

We will know next week if they qualify officially
By getting a Racing Post Rating of 149 or higher
I will be astonished if Ballyandy doesn't
I think there is a good chance all 3 could do
So I see these as huge runners in the Supreme
The problem we have is will any of them run

BALLYANDY is 14/1 for the Supreme
He is also 14/1 for the Neptune Hurdle as well
If the ground is soft he may go to the Supreme
But if it is faster he may end up in the Neptune

MOVEWITHTHETIMES is 25/1 for the Supreme
He is 20/1 for the Neptune as well
HIGH RIDGE is a 16/1 chance for the Supreme
He is 20/1 for the Neptune as well
We are going to have to wait for running plans
But these 3 horses could easily win the Supreme
And have a better chance than the current favourites








EACH WAY EDGE


A New Style Of Betting

This is a Bet only available on Betfair Sportsbook
Not the ordinary Betfair Exchange
I think it is a fascinating style of betting
These are the Rules as Betfair describe them

What is Each Way Edge?

Each Way Edge is a revolutionary new product which
allows you to alter place terms of your Each Way bet.

With Betfair you can now choose to add extra places
for a small decrease in price, or remove places to increase
your potential return – all from within the betslip.
Look at one of the bets in yesterdays message

Naas 1.35
ICARIO 2/1
Each Way

We were offered 2/1 and 1/5 the odds 1-2-3
Your standard traditional win and place terms

With Each Way edge
We can choose to have just 2 places
We can choose to have Four places

If we chose to have only 2 Places available
We get offered a bigger price about the bet

ICARIO was available at 3/1 with 2 places
So I get 3/1 rather than 2/1
But I lose the 3rd place because of it

If I chose instead to have 4 Places
I would be allowed to have that extra place
But to pay for that very generous concession
I was only offered 7/4 about ICARIO and not 2/1

When you look back at your each way bets
And the times they finish 4th and frustratingly lose
It is almost too good to be true to get that 4th place
I'd far rather have an extra place and shorter price

The Drawbacks for me are obvious
You are limited to what they allow you to stake
And I can't tip any horses using this system
As most people won't be able to get on
But if I was betting regularly on Betfair
I would be using this for most of my each way bets


Here is an example today

Sedgefield 2.40
STRAIT OF MAGELLAN 3/1
Each Way terms 1/5 the odds 1,2,3

If you accept 2 places
STRAIT OF MAGELLAN is then offered at 4/1

If you demand 4 places
STRAIT OF MAGELLAN shortens to 13/5

This extra choice seems very appealing
Perhaps it is me or just my style of betting
But I would far rather have a 4th place
And take lower prices in these races
Because it plays into another theory of mine
That Value is little more than a Hologram







S a t u r d a y ' s S u m m a r y

There were 3 options for bets yesterday
These finished L P P and I chose the wrong race
I went for the Betfair Hurdle and 2 each way bets
Both of these 2 horses finished unplaced
I mentioned something about a system yesterday
A system in the Betfair Hurdle I chose to ignore
This shows all Betfair Hurdle winners since 2011
Were aged 5 or 6 and came from a Non handicap
Since 2011 horses from Handicaps are 0-74 in this race
So I did wonder if the race has changed recently
Only Ballyandy & Movewiththetimes fitted that profile
And low and behold they finished 1st and 2nd
That tells me there probably has been a change
And I was wrong to ignore that system in the race
I went instead for in form and very fit horses
Thinking only one had to run to form to get placed
We now know that strategy was a mistake

HIGH BRIDGE won in a split stake Bet
Pleased with that bet even if we only broke level
The market was proved right about AZZERTI
The Split Stake strategy meant we broke level
Both horses 1st and 2nd so we could not have lost
SKIDBY MILL failed in the second preview
That was one of the races I didn't like or highlight

AINTREE MY DREAM won very nicely
I thought he was a good each way double leg
Putting him and ICARIO together made sense
They finished 1st and 2nd so no damage done
I thought ICARIO had won at one stage
He was going superbly well and was 1.15 in running
In the end the favourite's class proved too much
JACK THE TRUTH as beaten at Lingfield
That was half a bet as one half was a non runner
VIBRATO VALTAT only managed second
I was disappointed he couldn't win in that class
Overall a little bit underwhelming given the loser
But there is pressure to stake bets on Saturday's
And if we go with big field handicaps as we did do
Then losers in this race are never really a surprise
And I think we can put that one down to my error





P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s




S e d g e f i e l d 2.10

10/11 Mister Spingsprong, 11/10 Chidswell
14/1 Jack In A Box.

Novice Chase over 2m 3f
This looks a match
Brian Ellison sponsors this race
Many will fancy his own because of that
MISTER SPINGSPRONG is trained by the Sponsor
I am not convinced about him
Not very many 10 year olds win Novice Chases

If you look at February Novice Chases
That are run under 2m 6f
Horses aged 10 or more
Running in the previous 2 months
Have a 0-16 record
Not the most persuasive of stats

But if we look at January February March
Novice Chases under 2m 6f
Male horses aged 10 or more
Running in the previous 2 months
You find a 0-28 record during these 3 months
Just not many horses his age win

CHIDSWELL is 2 years younger
There is very little in it on achievements
But I think he must have more improvement
And he needs this step up in distance
Win lose of draw his profile is more suitable

Selection

CHIDSWELL 11/10

Win Bet


Stop Press

MISTER SPINGSPRONG is now a non runner
That has killed the Preview





S e d g e f i e l d 2.40

13/8 Deauville Crystal, 3/1 Culmination
3/1 Strait Of Magellan, 8/1 Freewheel, 12/1 Le Deluge
16/1 Bering Upsun, 16/1 The Wise One
40/1 Come On Lulu, 66/1 Rain In The Face.

Maiden Hurdle just short of 2m 1f

There may only be 4 runners here
I have problems with 2 of them

Maiden Hurdles in February
Any and Every distance since 2007
There are 151 of these races
Fillies aged 4 have a 0-29 record

DEAUVILLE CRYSTAL is a 4yo filly
Do we really want a 4yo filly on heavy ground
Especially one sired by Raven's Pass

January February March
Maiden Hurdles
Any and Every distance since 2007
Fillies aged 4 have a 2-79 record
We know they are 0-29 in February
But only 2-79 during these 3 months
Both winners were on better ground
Those that raced on Softer ground were 0-29
DEAUVILLE CRYSTAL is not my first choice

FREEWHEEL is 7 with no National Hunt form
LE DELUGE is 7 with no National Hunt form
If I look at horses aged 7 or more
Who have 4 or more lifetime starts
But who have no National Hunt runs
No Bumper Hurdle or Chase runs
I find a 0-30 record in similar races
FREEWHEEL is rejected because of this
LE DELUGE is rejected because of this

I prefer 2 horses
CULMINATION
STRAIT OF MAGELLAN
Neither fill me with ultimate confidence
Not in terms of an each way bet
Not from their stables either
So I am going win bet and saver

Selection

£7 Win Bet STRAIT OF MAGELLAN 7/2

£3 Win Bet CULMINATION 11/4





L e o p a r d s t o w n 4.30

4/5 Foxrock, 9/4 On The Fringe, 8/1 Staker Wallace
10/1 Salsify, 12/1 Wish Ye Didnt, 16/1 Quiet Account
25/1 Aughnacurraveel, 100/1 Pointview Gale.

This is a Hunter Chase
No prizes for originality here
But it has to be FOXROCK here
He is W W in Hunter Chases
His Racing Post Ratings have been 136 and 145
You can win a Cheltenham Foxhuneters with a 145 rating
FOXROCK must be a very smart Hunter Chase

ON THE FRINGE has won the last 2 Foxhunters
He is a high class Hunter chaser
Did the Cheltenham Aintree Punchestown treble in 2016
Did the Cheltenham Aintree Punchestown treble in 2015
But he has lost in this race 4 years in a row
The reason I believe is fitness
He uses this race as chance to get fit

One thing I found interesting
Is ON THE FRINGE's numbers after a break
He has raced only 5 times before
When absent more than a couple of months
If you look at his Racing Post Ratings in these 5 races
He has achieved ratings of 124 127 99 133 132

Given FOXROCK has recent runs and a rating of 145
I think he really should beat ON THE FRINGE
Who is 12 and facing a long absence
FOXROCK should be winning this

Selection

FOXROCK 4/6

Win Bet




E x e t e r 4.50

5/4 Quick Grabim, 5/1 Sir Egbert, 11/2 Linenhall
7/1 Harefield, 12/1 Air Navigator, 14/1 Benechenko
16/1 Get Wishing, 16/1 Rosemary Russet
20/1 Virginia Chick 25/1 First Flow, Dont Even Go There
40/1 The Imitation Game, 50/1 Ffeebee, 50/1 Hally´s Kitchen
66/1 Phoenix Firebird, 100/1 Foxy Act.


2m 1f Bumper
Rarely play in these races

First reaction here
Was that QUICK GRABIM was a good thing
Mainly because of Racing Post Ratings
He has achieved a rating of 122 last time
That puts him as the 8th best bumper horse this year
I nearly went with him because of that
Perhaps I should have done
But just worried about the track
Not convinced he will cope with such a stiff track
His connection say he is not being aimed at Cheltenham
They say it could be too much too soon
He is not the most imposing of horses

I decided to go each way against him
The market suggest little confident in many of them
We have a third favourite who is weak
HAREFIELD looks unsafe
He is an unraced 4yo
H is sired by the miler Doyen
Nothing about the horse his age or sire
That would interest me on very soft ground
When facing his first ever race before

SIR EGBERT has a good profile
He looks the main danger to the favourite
And there may not be many with enough ability
To kick him out of the frame

Selection

SIR EGBERT 9/2

Each Way

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