7 Races discussed
0 Staked Bet

Classic Trials and Cheltenham
Strange mix and not an easy day to navigate
Having a Non Committal day today
Just picked a few races out to preview
This is simply a practice message

No Staked Bet




TODAY'S MESSAGE



No Highlighted Bets

I want to back off today
No selection inspires me
Yesterday's main bet lost
35 Previews in 5 days
Just time to calm down

At some stage of this week
I need to find Scottish National time
I can't just start that on a Friday Night
So I may start this race tonight
It could shorten tomorrows message

Some of today's previews are in tough races
I don't feel fully in control of the message
So today is low stake fun bets and no more





TUESDAYS REVIEW

Annoyed with the main bet yesterday
Especially as I'm not getting much wrong
I had no confidence in my Newmarket bets
In the end they did best of all finishing P P W
The hardest track with most hidden from us
Look at the fields it's hard to be confident
Typically we ended up doing best there

JAJELA placed in the opening race
The high draws dominated as expected
CANOODLE finished only second
That surprised me I thought 3 out he'd win
But an each way single returns some stakes
So does any each way double with Gibbes Boy
He went off a bit too fast for my liking
I was relieved he finished placed in the end

The Main Bet was a horrible result
EDDIEBET did not look to stay the mile
I think with hindsight if that was the case
We were thin on the ground with the main bet
EBURACI didn't settle well and struggled
The 2 horses I wanted to oppose fought it out
Visually it was a very unpleasant bet to watch
Pre race Logic doesn't matter when they flop

NEXT STAGE won after that as a saver
I got the Fairyhouse race wrong after that
KHALIDI did us proud in the Feilden stakes
But like most previews it was insignificant
DJARKALIN lost so it ended with a whimper




PROFILES & PREVIEWS



BEVERLEY 2.15

2/1 Almane, 6/1 Emilia James, 7/1 Progressive Jazz
8/1 Kikini Bamalaam, Magic Jazz, 10/1 Dyson's Girl
12/1 Mistress Of Venice, 16/1 Floss The Hoss
16/1 Just For The Craic, Ventura Crest
25/1 Rock On Bertie, Furni Factors, Mount Hellvelyn.

2yo Novice over 5f
ALMANE is one of 2 with a previous run
That gives him an edge here
The Racing Post hint he is badly drawn
That is not entirely true from stall 10
He would have been if he was unraced
But once raced horses have won drawn 10
I think he is an each way double bet
He was made favourite in the Brocklesby
He should go close and has the best chance
The each way double protects from the unknown
And there is a huge unknown factor in this race
He looks the sensible choice
If he drifted to 5/2 I'd go each way single

Selection

ALMANE 2/1

Win Bet
or
Each Way Double




NEWMARKET 2.25

3/1 Sir Dancealot, 100/30 Seven Heavens
9/2 Whitecliffsofdover, 5/1 Rodaini, 6/1 Majeste
12/1 Perfect Angel, 14/1 Miss Infinity
14/1 Private Matter.

The Free Handicap is over 7f
3yo classic prospects
Past winners had the following career runs
4 3 2 4 5 3 4 7 3 6 4 3 4 4 6 4 2 6 3

SIR DANCELOT has questions to answer
He has already won 3 times before
Horses with 3 or more previous wins
Have a 0-34 record in this race
They've shown enough to the handicapper by then
They don't have as much improvement as some
SIR DANCELOT is also drawn 1
Go back to 2012
Newmarket races over 7f with 1-8 runners
Horses drawn 1 have a 0-25 record in them
It probably isn't the best draw even with 8 runners
SIR DANCELOT has 6 runs
The last 7 winners were lighter raced

RODAINI has already won 4 times before
We know horses with 3 or more wins are 0-34
That would worry me and he isn't a good match
MISS INFINITY has 9 runs
Thats too many for a seasonal debutant
As a mare first time out she looks avoidable

PRIVATE MATTER was last seen winning in France
His profile is fine and he looks smart
His problem could be stamina here
His sire's runners over 7f + are just 1-52
That winner came in a lowly Class 5 race

MAJESTE has no statistical problems
Being sired by Acclamation doesn't impress me
I like to oppose this sire in the higher class races
His runners over 7f and more
In Class 2 and higher are 32-439
However look at those with under 7 career runs
They have a 11-144 record
All 11 of these ran within 4 weeks
Those that did not had a 0-61 record
MAJESTE fails this 0-61 record
Acclamation is the Ken Barlow of Sires
Extremely virile and just keeps going
Yet his offspring get found out in the highest class
And when you poke at their profiles
You can usually find a hole in the best company
MAJESTE like Tracy Barlow is best avoided

WHITECLIFFSOFDOVER has positives
Not least impeccable connections
I made him a negative last time out
But he is a "War Front" always a worry

SEVEN HEAVENS comes from the Dewhurst
4 horses did that and 3 of those won
That was a while ago and they did have less weight
I can match him to a winner


Selection

£8 Win Bet SEVEN HEAVENS 3/1

£2 Win Bet WHITECLIFFSOFDOVER 4/1

Had there been 8 runners
I would have gone each way
Now there is 7 runners
A saver is drafted in





CHELTENHAM 2.40

7/2 Starchitect, 5/1 Village Vic, 11/2 Thomas Crapper
7/1 Art Mauresque, Voix D'Eau, 8/1 Foxtail Hill
8/1 Henryville, 14/1 Dresden, 16/1 Casino Markets
25/1 Un Beau Roman.

Grade 2 Handicap Chase over 2m 5f

No long previews because of time restraints
I am avoiding the most exposed Chasers
Past winners had the following Chase starts
5 27 5 11 9 14 5 5 14 5 10 5 22 10
The 2015 winner did have 27 Chase runs
But the vast majority to win this had under 15

THOMAS CRAPPER is a 10yo with 21 Chase runs
UN BEAU ROMAN rejected with 25 Chase runs
DRESDEN rejected with 20 Chase runs

This has always been a lightweights race
Horses with 11st 2lbs or more are 1-35 in this race
The only winner was different class in 2011
He only had 4 opponents and had 20lbs in hand
I want to keep away from the topweights
VILLAGE VIC has 11st 10lbs
Weight statistics suggest we avoid him

ART MAURESQUE has 11st 5lbs
That's a couple of pounds more than ideal
But it could be a mistake not to be lenient
He was 2nd in last years race
But he has 15lbs more weight this year
And I think he is the wrong age for his weight
And too exposed for a 7yo with that weight

CASINO MARKETS may lack fitness
FOXTAIL HILL doesn't come out well
Not stepping up 5f in distance

HENRYVILLE - Not sure this is his track
VOIX D'EAU - Won last years race
STARCHITECT - Last 2 runs excusable

What bothers me about STARCHITECT
The last winners that raced at Aintree
Were back in 2004 and 2008
No horse took in both festivals in 14 years
Not sure I'd want a horse doing this
HENRYVILLE also has this problem
FOXTAIL HILL ran at both festivals too

In the end I came down on last years winner

Selection

£4 Each Way VOIX D'EAU 7/1

£2 Win Bet STARCHITECT 4/1






NEWMARKET 3.35

7/2 Roly Poly, 4/1 Sea Of Grace
4/1 Pamplemousse, 5/1 Brave Anna
5/1 Poet's Vanity, 12/1 Daban, 14/1 Kazimiera
20/1 Unforgetable Filly, 25/1 Kilmah
50/1 Choumicha, 50/1 Tallulah Rose

The Nell Gwyn is a Group race for fillies
Traditional trial for the 1000 Guineas

Recent winners had the following runs
3 7 5 1 10 4 4 3 1 6
We have had some once raced winners
None of them had raced this season
Only 1 of the last 28 winners run that season
PAMPLEMOUSSE ran 15 days ago
Given that was her only run
I am uncomfortable about her taking this
DABAN is not for me with 1 run
Not sired by Acclamation
This sires pattern race runners
Aged 3 or more
With under 6 career starts are 0-50
KAKIMIERA doesn't look good enough
POET'S VANITY wouldn't be my first choice
I can't trust his trainer to get him fit
Aidan O'Brien runs 2 horses
Both sired by War Front
BRAVE ANNA and ROLY POLY
The issue with both is how they train on
SEA OF GRACE has every chance
I'd rather rely on him each way

Selection

SEA OF GRACE 4/1

Each Way





BEVERLEY 4.35

4/1 Edward Lewis, 5/1 East Street Revue
7/1 Bogart, 8/1 Lexington Place, 10/1 Gamesome
10/1 Powerallied, Singeur, 12/1 Snap Shots
16/1 Bashiba, Burnt Sugar, Kibaar, Rasheeq
16/1 Sandra's Secret, 25/1 Meadway.

Ckass 3 Handicap over 5f
I looked at this and similar races elsewhere
Horses aged 8 or more struggle
SINGEUR is too old for me
I am against BOGART aged 8
He has a recent run but not sold on him
Horses that ran within 4 weeks
Have a 0-38 record in this race
SANDRAS SECRET has this problem
MEADWAY is rejected drawn 14
KIBAAR rejected drawn 13
He is sired by Pastoral Pursuits
If you look at the sires 5f runners aged 3 or more
Who are absent more than 94 days
The sires runners have a weak 1-69 record
EAST STREET REVUE has the same sire
He fails that 1-69 statistic as well
I wouldn't trust his trainer anyway
Look at Tim Easterby's record since 2004
His male 4 year olds
Absent more than 100 days
Have a miserable 1-123 record since 2004
RASHEEQ from the same trainer fails his too
I don't expect BASHIBA to be ready first time

POWERALLIED may be having a prep run
He would be shorter in the market if fancied
And this may be a Chester warm up
SNAP SHOTS will probably need the run
BURNT SUGAR - No obvious reason to bet him

GAMESOME has the ability if fit
His trainers record worries me
Look at the trainers runners in Class 4 or higher
Those absent more than 85 days were 2-112
Those absent 130 + days were 1-92
In fields of 8 or more all 81 were beaten
I don't trust him to have the horse fit

Shortlist

LEXINGTON PLACE was 4th in this last year
Has a chance but he is 0-17 in fields or 12 or more

EDWARD LEWIS has positives
But he has never raced over 5f before
Solid stable and unexposed 4 year old
I'd give him the benefit of the doubt
I've opposed him 3 times at 7f as a non stayer
Reasons to think this is his best trip

Selection

EDWARD LEWIS 4/1

Win Bet




SEDGEFIELD 4.50

3/1 Nicki's Nipper, 4/1 Broadway Belle
Down Time, 13/2 King Of The Dark, 7/1 Multipede
9/1 Blue Cove, 10/1 Next Hight, 11/1 Eager To Know.

Handicap Hurdle over 3m 3f
0-89 Class race
This is as bad as it gets
Only 7 similar races in April

Interested in Stamina here
NIKKI'S NIPPER is sired by Denounce
This is not a sire proven with stayers
His Flat runners are 0-27 over 10f or more
That has to be a worrying clue about stamina
The sire has yet to have a National hunt winner
Beyond 2m 4f and this is almost a mile longer
I can't risk her stamina with that data
And she is a mare coming from a 2m 4f race

BLUE COVE is a 12 year old
Thats older than Ideal
March April May
Handicap Hurdles over 2m 6f or more
0-100 Class or lower
Horses aged 12 or more were 1-85
BLUE COVE has a 0-35 career record
We'd be unlucky if he popped up

BROADWAY BELLE has 11 runs
Although only 7 similar races in May
Horses with under 16 career starts were 1-50
Not the kind of race a lighter raced horse wins
BROADWAY BELLE also steps up from 2m 3f

MULTIPEDE only has 9 previous runs
We know horses with under 16 runs are 1-50
He is 2 years younger than every other horse
He has more weight than all of them
With many experienced older types winning
I would not risk a 5yo with topweight

EAGER TO KNOW has 6 career starts
By far the least experienced horse here
We know horses with under 16 runs are 1-50
Coming from a 2m 1f race going up 14 furlongs
He just doesn't offer a safe enough profile

NEXT HIGHT fails my breeding stats
His sire hasn't had a hurdle winner over this far
He lacks positive and is running poorly

Shortlist

KING OF THE DARK has been chasing
Hard to read but I have no strong objections
2 of the 7 winners came from fences like him

DOWN TIME ran 6 days ago
Beaten 24 lengths was a bit too far
He is also flat bred
His sire hasn't had a winner over this far
He is well conditioned at this trip
Most of his rivals have never been near 3m 3f
He is one of the fittest horses
He has been running in better class races as well

Selection

£3.50 Each Way KING OF THE DARK 14/1

£3 Win Bet DOWN TIME 3/1




SEDGEFIELD 5.25

9/4 Hi Dancer, 11/4 Alys Rock
100/30 Leading Score, 6/1 Noble Call
9/1 Bourbon Prince, 10/1 Silver Trix.

Novice Handicap Chase

Strange little race
Not much chasing experience at all
HI DANCER is a 14 year old
No 14yo has ever won a Novice Handicap Chase
Only 4 tried and I don't describe him as a negative
But it is very strange to see one try
In the last 16 years none have won older than 12
That's any time of year and any distance
Do we really want a Ben Haslam horse that age ?

What interests me here
LEADING SCORE is rated 102
His highest rated opponent is rated 92
LEADING SCORE is easily the class horse

That Class gap could be made stronger
NOBLE CALL rated 92 has not run in 165 days
So we can't know if he is fit
And on his sole Chase start he made mistakes
Whats more if you look at his trainer Joanne Foster
Her career runners absent 142 + days are 0-73

ALYS ROCK is a mare
She has never jumped a fence before

BOURBON PRINCE is rated 92
He is very short of runs
He has raced just twice in 19 Months
He's obviously had some problems
But he has upgraded stables which is significant
He is the youngest horse in the race
And there has been market support for him
Running on his trainers one significant course
All that adds up to a saver

SILVER TRIX is a mare absent 217 days
She hasn't shown anything to be fearful of

So I am thinking
If LEADING SCORE can jump
He could easily outclass this look
His trainer says he has schooled well
And his jumping is Very Good
But you have to ignore drivel like that
On Racing Post Ratings since 2016
None of his opponents in any of their races
Have beaten a modest rating of 97
LEADING SCORE has done that many times

Selection

£8 Win Bet LEADING SCORE 7/2

£2 Win Bet BOURBON PRINCE 7/1

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