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First message of the week
Short and this will be rusty
Broke for a day off yesterday
After 12 messages in a row
After 17 messages in 18 days
Done a bit too much recently
Should have taken another day off
So not doing too much right now
The priority is later in the week
Cheltenham on Friday/Saturday
Aintree as well on the Sunday


Today's Bet

No Staked Bet




Todays Message


3 Previews

There are 2 selections at 3/1
Either are possible each way bets
I'm going to suggest a small Bet
Not staked just for a bit of interest

Newcastle 2.40 - Qianlong 3/1

Fairyhouse 5.15 - Get Out Of Jail 3/1

£2.50 Win Singles on each horse

£2.50 Each Way Double on both



Sunday's Review

There was no message Monday
Looked at a couple of Sunday races
Didn't quite work out as planned
Nothing from the All weather bet
We had the 2nd but staked it wrong
Harvey Spectre was an each way bet
He finished 5th in a race with 4 places
That was probably a bit unlucky
But it tapped into what I was saying
About not betting certain stables
Other stables may have improved him
Some may have done the novelty bet
That produced a part return of £7.71


PROFILES & PREVIEWS


NEWCASTLE 2.40

9/4 Big Kitten, 11/4 Qianlong, 7/2 Moqarrar,
16/1 Windsor Cross, 16/1 Altered Method,
20/1 Skito Soldier, 20/1 Spark Of War,
25/1 Howbaar, 33/1 Leahcar, 40/1 Wowsham,
50/1 Gowanbuster.

7f Novice for 2 year olds
This looks to be a 3 horse race
Windsor Cross is weak on breeding stats
Spark of Law needs a lot of improvement
The same applies to Altered Method too
I would argue just 3 horses stand out

The issues are clear
How much will BIG KITTEN improve
Having raced once 4 weeks ago
And taking on more experienced colts
Will MOQARRAR be better at shorter
Does he stay this 6f distance
Can QIANLONG deliver down in trip
Any of these 3 horses could Win

BIG KITTEN's pedigree is tough to read
What worries me about his chance
Compare this trip at Newcastle with his debut
The 7f at Beverley takes 6 seconds longer to run
The 7f here is far quicker to run
I wonder if that may just catch him out
I prefer the experience of QIANLONG
He seems the logical bet each way

Selection

QIANLONG 3/1

Each Way




FAIRYHOUSE 4.15

11/8 Alaykha, 11/4 Tellthemnuttin,
4/1 Decision Time, 8/1 Dream Sleep,
10/1 Our Anniversary, 14/1 Sin Sin,
25/1 Bracklin Princess, 33/1 Bluebells For Love,
50/1 Shelooksthepart.

12f Maiden
ALAYKHA 6/4 is a 3yo
Her 2 market rivals are 6 year olds
That is significant statistically
We may be inviting disappointment
As ALAYKHA is not progressing
She is not the biggest of horses either
Normally I would be taking her on
But her opposition today is weaker

Fillies Maidens
Open to 3 year olds
Since 1997
Any time of year
Any distance
There are 1977 of these races

Horses aged 6 or more
Have a miserable 1-185 record
Only 1 horse has done it in 20 years
And that winner (Lady Aspen) doesn't count
As no 3 year olds ran in the race she won

DECISION TIME aged 6 shares this 1-185 profile
TELLTHEMNUTTIN shares it as well
If this angle works out
It improves ALAYKHA's chance
Especially as SIN SIN hasn't done much
OUR ANNIVERSARY steps up half a mile
With a recent run don't see much I like there

ALAYKHA has twice beaten DREAM SLEEP
But you could argue the latter had excuses
I would see her as a cheap saver
Strange things happen at this time of year

Selection

£9 Win Bet ALAYKHA 11/8

£1 Win Bet DREAM SLEEP 10/1





FAIRYHOUSE 5.15

7/2 Les Arceaux, 5/1 Get Out Of Jail, 10/1 Nannys Well,
10/1 Siempre Amigos, 12/1 Fioruisce, 14/1 Alohamora,
14/1 Glib Speech, Isabella Vite, 16/1 Bert Leaf,
16/1 Dixie Highway, Poetical Dreamer, 20/1 Greanta,
20/1 Last Garrison, Lizard Point, Mr Boss Man,
20/1 Muroor, 25/1 Caminel, Mountain Kingdom.

12f Handicap
18 runners on soft/heavy
Why Bother ?

Well the favourite is questionable
LES ARCEAUX is sired by Arcano
This sires runners on softer than good
Have a modest 1-32 record so far
That winner had a far more recent run
LES ARCEAUX won last time out
But 36 days is a long time after a win
When up in trip in bad ground as well
And from a sire who's stats are dodgy

Another reason to play in this race
is we get 1-2-3-4 places each way
And there is always a lot of dead wood

GET OUT OF JAIL could be an each way bet
I like his last run on Video
It was a career best he should have won
GET OUT OF JAIL started his run too late
He was flying at the end and was unlucky

Plenty have question marks
BERT LEAF is underraced with poor sire stats
FIORUISCE also fails breeding stats
His sire hasn't had softer ground 12f winner
He is also up 4f in distance
POETICAL DREAMER fails breeding stats
NANNYS WELL shouldn't be far away
But her sire Elnadim has a 0-12 record
With his runners over 12f on softer ground
ISABELLE VITE is not a certain stayer
SIEMPRE AMIGOS is a filly drawn 18 of 18
Draw stats are inconclusive over 12f here
But they do point to lower numbers being best
And that draw could easily undermine her

There could be a dark horse in the race
But not usually many that can win these races
GET OUT OF JAIL made the most appeal
He is a bit short each way at 3/1
But with 4 places it could still be generous
For a horse that looks about to win soon

Selection

GET OUT OF JAIL 3/1

Each Way

1/4 Odds 1,2,3,4

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