4 Previews
0 Staked Bet


Day 1 of Glorious Goodwood
Covering 4 races there
Nothing elsewhere today
This is a planned short message
Having lost time with the Dentist
Not having an account bet today
Football bet as promised




Today's Bet

No Official Bet




TODAY'S MESSAGE

4 Goodwood previews

Galway was hardly welcoming yesterday
Winners at 4/9 20/1 14/1 12/1 16/1 6/1 6/1
Only interested in softer races there this week


The closest race to a bet
Would have been the 4.10pm

Goodwood 4.10

TRIBAL QUEST 2/1- 9/4

Had he been 5/2
I might have staked him each way
But he is generally 2/1
I think he is the best bet today
At least in the 4 races I've covered

I actually think my Football bet is better


FOOTBALL BET

Friday Night

Championship

Sunderland v Derby

£6 Win Derby 9/4

£3 Win The Draw 9/4

£1 Win 0-0 Draw 9/1


Sunderland are a shambles
Nobody in the game rates them
The team are in constant crisis
There is always the old cliche
A wounded tiger is a dangerous beast
But they are simply a very poor side

Every chance Sunderland wont score
If they don't we are guaranteed to win
If they do score we can still easily win
Derby are not a bad side
Hard for a bad team to break them down
Live on Television
Looks a bet that should be hard to lose
Think this is a bet worth having
Obviously it is not on the account




MONDAY'S REVIEW

The account bet finished 2nd each way
Priced at 9/2 and 5/1 in the morning
The 2nd favourite was a non runner
It then looked and was a direct match
The long odds on favourite won that match
TWOBEELUCKY ran well in second
Returned 11/4 after the non runner
Never in any danger of being unplaced
TWOBEELUCKY was matched at 2.02
But ultimately a better horse bear him
But as an each way bet it was stress free
Another Placed effort to add to this run
Where we haven't had a loser in 9 bets

Rest of the message a bit frustrating
We didn't have a lot of luck yesterday
No complaints in SLEEP EASY's race
That was a clear case of misjudgement
ADDICTED TO YOU pulled up on the flat
Reported to have twisted a right front shoe
MAC TOTTIE finished in 2nd place
I feel the each way bet was the right call
You have no idea what the opposition is
I knew it would be hard for 3 to beat him
In the end that proved to be correct
But we ended up with just a part return
Whilst the account bet returned place money
There was no outright winner yesterday
I hope it isn't notice the good run is over




PROFILES & PREVIEWS



GOODWOOD 1.50

6/1 Garcia, 7/1 UAE Prince, 8/1 Khairaat, 10/1 Abdon
10/1 Murad Khan, 12/1 What About Carlo, 14/1 Eddystone Rock
14/1 Oasis Fantasy, Speed Company, 16/1 Fabricate, Noble Gift
16/1 Tha'ir, 20/1 Baydar, Dark Red, 25/1 Eye Of The Storm
25/1 Master Carpenter, 25/1 Bravery.

10f handicap for horses rated 0-108

Too much of a luxury for a big preview
I can tell you 4-5 year olds dominate
They have won every renewal since 2003
The last 23 winners ran within 59 days
The last 18 winners had at least 8 career starts

Horses aged 6 or more
Have a 0-44 record in the last 13 renewals
What About Carlo is rejected aged 6
Oasis Fantasy one the more fancied older runners
If you look at his Handicap Form
When running off ratings of 90 ot higher
Oasis Fantasy has a 0-20 record
This could be the ceiling of his ability
The last 23 winners ran within 59 days
ABDON has not managed that
He is rejected with the longest absence

Go back to 2000
Horses with under 10 career starts
Have a worrying 1-45 record in this race
The least experienced winner was in 2012
That horse had 9 career starts
horses with under 9 career starts were 0-37
Thats in 18 renewals where younger horses do well
I'd be worried about the least experienced horses
GARCIA only has 7 career starts
With 1 run since 2016 he is too risky at 5/1
MURAD KHAN has 7 career starts
Thatis 2 less than all past winners
He also comes from a mile race
Horses aged 4 from an 8f race are 0-25
Puts me off he is the only horse up in distance

UAE PRINCE only has 6 career runs
That is 3 less than all previous winners
Said to be a very smart colt though
I shouldn't really select him with 6 runs
KHAIRAAT only has 5 previous runs
He is another sexy big stable improver

You really want the following profile
Horse aged 4-5
Running within 2 Months
9 or more career starts

We are down to a shortlist of 6

EDDYSTOME ROCK - BRAVERY - BAYDAR
FABRICATE - SPEED COMPANY - DARK RED

I would make the assumption
That this race like many others at festivals
Is getting better in quality each season
The last 3 winners of this race
Had Racing Post Ratings of 106 107 102
On their previous racecourse start
Maybe that is what it takes to win this now
BRAVERY has not achieved that
BAYDAR isn't running well enough
Not when drawn 18 of 18 as well
If we insist on a rating of at least 100
And insist on those with the best profiles
We end up with the following shortlist

SPEED COMPANY -DARK RED
EDDYSTOME ROCK - FABRICATE

I can't bet FABRICATE
He has never ran over this distance before
Needs a career best over an alien distance
DARK RED ran 3 days ago
That was in a lower class of race
He needs a career best and I don't trust him
SPEED COMPANY is 0-9 in this Class and higher
Drawn 1 this could be too warm for him
EDDYSTOME ROCK came out as best
He is the selection with savers attached
The 3 shortest priced horses
Are lightly raced improvers
Whilst that's not been helpful in the past
We are not living in the past and things change
I'd be happy having 2 of them as saver bets

Selection

The Staking is messy
But it offers the chance of a decent win
The selection getting placed rescues stakes
As does either of the 2 saver bets as well

Selection

EDDYSTOME ROCK 12/1

£5 Win
£2 Place

Savers

£1.25 Win Bet KHAIRAAT 9/1

£1.25 Win Bet UAE PRINCE 7/1




GOODWOOD 3.00

11/4 Limato, 4/1 Librisa Breeze, 6/1 Spirit Of Valor,
7/1 Home Of The Brave, 10/1 Dream Castle, 12/1 Aclaim
12/1 Dutch Connection, 20/1 Stormy Antarctic, 25/1 Breton Rock
33/1 Jungle Cat, 33/1 Oh This Is Us, 33/1 So Beloved,
50/1 Suedois, 50/1 Jallota.

The Lennox Stakes is a Group 2 race over 7f
First port of call is ignore horses aged 6 or more
This race has never gone to a horse that age
That only takes out a few rank outsiders

Take out horses who don't come from pattern races
All past winners did but that doesn't help us much

If we look at the 3 year olds that have won this
They had 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 previous runs
They were all absent over 4 weeks as well
DREAM CASTLE does not fit that profile
He is a 3yo and only has 4 career starts
Less than any previous 3yo winner
SPIRIT OF VALOUR is also a 3yo
He has a recent run which is not the norm
I am forgiving him that for obvious reasons
He is on a roll from the best stable in the game
His last time out Racing Post Rating is big
Would have won several past renewals
ACCLAIM does not interest me
No 4 year old has won this going up in distance
LIBRISA BREEZE comes from a 6f race
I can't risk him with just 1 run this season
OH THIS IS US doesn't appeal on his sire
STORMY ATLANTIC didn't feel classy enough
LIMATO has an obvious chance
Shortlistable but the ground far from ideal
DUTCH CONNECTION has a similar issue
He has never won on Good or slower ground
I would shortlist the following horses
HOME OF THE BRAVE has a strong chance

Shortlist

LIMATO 100/30
DUTCH CONNECTION 12/1
SPIRIT OF VALOUR 7/1
HOME OF THE BRAVE 7/1

Selection


£4.00 Each Way HOME OF THE BRAVE 7/1

£2.00 Saver Bet SPIRIT OF VALOUR 7/1





GOODWOOD 3.35

4/5 Big Orange, 9/1 Stradivarius, 10/1 US Army Ranger
12/1 Sheikhzayedroad, 14/1 Higher Power, 16/1 Pallasator
16/1 Wicklow Brave 20/1 Prince Of Arran, 25/1 Qewy,
25/1 Desert Skyline, 33/1 Oriental Fox, 33/1 High Jinx,
50/1 She Is No Lady, Sweet Selection.

The Goodwood Cup is a group race over 2m

BIG ORANGE won this in 2015-2016
He won the Ascot Gold Cup last time
I was on Order Of St George that day
I am not over that loss yet
I can't get pass that short head loss
I don't want to even think about Big Orange

I have always known my strategy in this
I wasn't going to bet him or oppose him
He is the best horse on ratings
So I am buying him out of the race
I will break level of the favourite wins

I'm going Win - Saver - Saver here
PALLASATOR didn't interest me much
The last 16 winners ran within 42 days
He is an 8yo absent 90 days
PRINCE OF ARRAN was 66/1 last time
STRADIVARIUS is only a 3yo
The last 3 year old to win this race was in 1990
The record is not as bad as it looks to be fair
But he is said to prefer faster ground
His worst 2 numbers came on his soft ground rnns
WICKLOW RANGER had his chance last year
HIDDEN POWER comes from a handicap
Horses doing that have a 0-34 record
US ARMY RANGER comes from a bad trial race
But He appeals as a saver trained by a master
SHEIKHZAYEDROAD is the selection
Need to improve but he was 3rd last year
Comes from the best trial race as well

Selection

£4 Win Bet SHEIKHZAYEDROAD 12/1

£5 Win Bet BIG ORANGE 10/11

£1 Win Bet US ARMY RANGER 11/1



GOODWOOD 4.10

9/4 Tribal Quest, 4/1 Rebel Streak, 5/1 Oliver Reed
8/1 Algam, 10/1 Lake Volta, Princely, 12/1 Alrahaal, Bombastic
16/1 Baghdad, 20/1 George, 25/1 Makambe
33/1 Hell Of A Band, 50/1 The Great Dandini
66/1 Thechildren'Strust.

6f Maiden race
OLIVER REED is hard to like
Ryan Moore has rejected him
He is also drawn 13 here
Look at Goodwood 6f races since 2015
Horses drawn 12 or higher are 0-97
They are only 1-121 since 2014 as well
GEORGE also fails this drawn 12
Ryan Moore rides PRINCELY
Very little chance of winning this first time
I don't think he can stay 6f on his debut
Besides that unraced horse have a rubbish record
You can discount those with some confidence
LAKE VLTA is unraced and opposed as well
ALRAHAAL can't be discounted
But weak in the market and not offering much
BOMBASTIC needs improvement
From a small unfashionable stable hard to trust

Racing Post Ratings

89 Tribal Quest
81 Rebel Streak
80 Tribal Quest
80 George
77 Bombastic
72 Algam
71 Alrahaal
70 Rebel Streak

Shortlist

REBEL STREAK is 2nd on the numbers
Can't rule him out with 2 runs
My gut feeling is he will get outstayed
ALGAM has a chance
Not keen he drops down from 7f
When having 1 run just 12 days ago
Not a negative but not a safe profile
And he has work to do on the numbers
TRIBAL QUEST has the best numbers
He has an 8lbs edge on the field
Started favourite on a Grade 1 track last time
Only beaten in a photo as well
Nice big strong horse he should go close

Selection

TRIBAL QUEST 9/4 - 5/2

I personally like him each way
Might have staked him as an each way bet
Not as a win bet though
Others may prefer a more orthodox win bet

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