9 Previews
1 Staked Bet


8 Meetings this Saturday
2 Meetings this Sunday
Insane planning again


There will be a Sunday message
Only 2 cards will limit our choice
Hopefully we can still find a bet

Future Betting Angles will return
We will cover some other sports
I will try and knock something up

Today is a message full of sprints
Aside from one hurdle race
All other previews are over 5f 6f 7f
3 Highlighted races all possible bets



Today's Account Bet

Chester 3.20

£4.50 Each Way POWERALLIED 13/2

£1.00 Win Bet VERNE CASTLE 16/1





TODAY'S MESSAGE

There are some staking dilemmas
At times it gets into some difficulty
A couple of races don't feel quite right

There are other bits of inspiration
Discovered 3 angles I've never seen
There is an odds on shot today
Trying something not done in 20 + yrs
When we can dig up new stuff like that
On a hectic Saturday after 16 years
Shows we are doing something right


The Bottom line form 9 previews
I only considered these 3 as bets


Newton Abbot 2.15

£9 Win Bet BACH DE CLERMONT 9/4

£1 Win Bet SAXI JACK 9/1

The odds on favourite
Has a profile no horse has won from
In at least 20 years at any time of year
It is hard to know how significant that is
I don't like betting Evan Williams horses
But looks a promising bet on profiles
Hopefully the odds on fav lacks speed
As a 9yo chaser down a mile to a hurdle


Chester 3.20

£4.50 Each Way POWERALLIED 13/2

£1.00 Win Bet VERNE CASTLE 16/1

The hardest of the 3 highlighted races
Verne Castle was my original choice
Risky though and he's a leap of faith
I didn't know how to stake this race
Powerallied was originally ruled out
But I looked at him more and more
I just feel he may thrive here over 5f
With a recent run and a good draw
He's never had both of them together
He's hardly ever had a recent run
When I look at his handicap mark of 81
I see a rating he could do damage off
Now he is well drawn here finally
And now he has a rare recent run


Hamilton 4.50

£6.50 Win Bet POET'S PRIDE 4/1

£3.50 Saver EQUITANT 2/1

I may be wrong
But I feel the favourite is vulnerable
And may run out of petrol
We are betting the 3rd favourite
Saving on the 2nd favourite
I feel we have a decent horse here
Whose debut run must be upgraded
No horse managed to do the same


I'm hopeful in the other 6 previews
But the above bets stood out more

Picking the main bet demands luck


BACH DE CLERMONT is hard to judge
I face the same problem here
That I do with POET'S PRIDE
Weak Markets and price changes
I am probably safer going to Chester
Despite this being the hardest race

Chester 3.20

£4.50 Each Way POWERALLIED 13/2

£1.00 Win Bet VERNE CASTLE 16/1


Staking was the problem here
I could have gone this way
£2 Each Way Verne Castle
£6 Win Powerallied
I return stakes if Verne Castle places
And he has a very big chance
The problem with that decision
We then lose the place with Powerallied
Hard to know how to play it
As this track demands luck in running



FRIDAY'S REVIEW

Friday was about our winning run
Our previous 4 bets had all won
I was hoping to extend that record
We ended up with an each way 2nd
At least we avoided having a loser
BOYTONRATH each way returned 3/1
She drifted quite badly in the market
But never really looked like unplacing
The Nature of those Irish Handicaps
You rarely find 4 horses to beat you
An each way 2nd better than a loser
Otherwise it was a workmanlike effort
The previews finished P L P P W P P
I was a little bit disappointed with it
Dominated by savers rescuing bets
Nothing special but no damage done
The last 5 bets now read W W W W P



PROFILES & PREVIEWS





CHESTER 1.40

2/1 Mutakatif, 9/4 Carouse,
4/1 Ateem, 6/1 Cosa Nostra, 9/1 Spud
14/1 Gabrials Centurion,
25/1 Manor Park, 40/1 Isabella Ruby.

2yo Novice over 7f
Looks like a 4 horse race
I opposed MUTAKATIF last time
Wasn't convinced he would stay that day
The jury is out about stamina
The main interest for me is his stamina
Todays distance takes 3.8 seconds longer
I have to stand by my original view
And hope that his stamina gives in
I don't have a strong view after that
I am staggering the staking as follows
It allows us to not lose if any of 3 win
COSA NOSTRA winning is the best result
I didn't think he stayed a mile last time

Selection

Small Stakes

£5 Win Bet COSA NOSTRA 8/1

£3 Win Bet CAROUSE 9/4

£2 Win Bet ATEEM 4/1





NEWTON ABBOT 2.15

4/6 Tempestatefloresco, 2/1 Bach De Clermont
10/1 Saxo Jack, 14/1 Simple As That
100/1 Oyster Pearl, 200/1 Orbit Light.

2m 1f Novice Hurdle
Looks like a match

I don't have a strong view
But the favourite has a profile
That no horse has won with before

Go back to 1997
Every Novice Hurdle
Run over 2m 2f and shorter
Horses from a Chase
Over 2m 7f and more last time
Have a 0-53 record

TEMPESTATEFLORESCO has this profile
Not many tried in the last 20 years
Not that many were fancied either
So I am not getting too excited

I can't make him the selection
Not at odds on
Not as a 9yo from a Chase
When none have won like him in 20 years
You never know he may not have the speed
To drop down over a mile
From fences down to hurdles

Going for the safer option and saver
BACH DE CLERMONT won last time
Last time winners in hurdles are superior

Selection

£9 Win Bet BACH DE CLERMONT 9/4

£1 Win Bet SAXI JACK 9/1





BEVERLEY 2.40

6/4 Van Velde, 5/2 Equiano Springs
9/2 Ember's Glow, 11/2 Coviglia
16/1 Bleu Et Noir, 20/1 Knotty Jack.

7f All aged Maiden Stakes
6 runners

VAN VELDE is the least experienced
He is the shortest priced horse as well
Because of that I am opposing him
I can match him to winners elsewhere
He is therefore not a statistical negative
But certain tracks demand more
And this is one track I like experience
There are no direct 7f Beverley Maidens
At this time of year to judge him on
I suspect if there were 7f maidens here
The experienced horses may do better

COVIGLIA has 3 runs
EQUIANO SPRINGS has 7 runs
EMBERS GLOW has 4 runs

I'd be hoping one of these
Has more than the once raced favourite
Especially as VAN VELDE has an absence
COVIGLIA didn't appeal that much
Next time down in trip perhaps
Not sure he fully gets this distance
EMBERS GLOW gets the verdict
On the ground he had excuses last time
7f at Newmarket on soft found him out
Breeding stats confirm that was likely

Selection

Small Stakes

£7 Win Bet EMBERS GLOW 4/1

£3 Win Bet EQUIANO SPRINGS 5/2






BEVERLEY 3.15

7/2 Kimberella, 4/1 Final Venture,
6/1 Take Cover, 6/1 Alpha Delphini,
8/1 Mirza, 9/1 Line Of Reason
10/1 Desert Law, 14/1 Pipers Note,
20/1 Go On Go On Go On
25/1 The Wagon Wheel.

5f Beverley Bullet Sprint
We looked at this race during the week
Horses aged 4 have a poor 1-37 record
GO ON GO ON GO ON has this problem
Horses with recent runs
Have an unusually poor record in this
Horses running in the last 17 days
Have a 1-58 record in the last 13 years
The following horses have recent runs
And have to overcome this 1-58 statistic
ALPHA DELPHINI and FINAL VENTURE
TAKE COVER - DESERT LAW - PIPERS NOTE
THE WAGON WHEEL also has this problem
MIRZA is a 10yo a bit older than ideal
I would see him as underraced this year
Applying results of previous renewals
I can shortlist just two horses
KIMBERELLA
LINE OF REASON


Selection

£6 Win Bet KIMBERELLA 9/2

£4 Win Bet LINE OF REASON 9/1









CHESTER 3.20

3/1 Poet's Society, 9/2 East Street Revue,
9/2 Powerallied, 8/1 El Astronaute, 10/1 Blithe Spirit,
10/1Confessional, 12/1 Gracious John, Verne Castle,
14/1 Taexali, 16/1 Spring Loaded, 20/1 Lucky Beggar,
20/1 Willytheconqueror.

Class 2 Handicap over 5f 110 yards
54 similar races in August-September
Not entirely safe statistically
Because of the extra 110 yards

We know high draws struggle
They do sometimes pop up here
I want to add a twist of the draw stats
By looking at races in Class 2 and higher

Since 1997
Chester 5f and 6f
Class 2 races and higher
Horses drawn 10 or more
Have a 0-144 record in the last 20 years

If we look exclusively at Handicaps
Horses drawn 9 or more
Running in all 5f 6f Class 2 handicaps
Have a 0-140 record in 20 years

When you get to this Class
Higher drawn horses have drawn a blank

EL ASTRONAUTE is drawn 10
BLITHE SPIRIT is drawn 11
LUCKY BEGGAR is drawn 12

GRACIOUS JOHN isn't running well enough

SPRING LOADED is drawn 9
Thats a bit higher than I'd like
He does fail the 0-140 20yr draw stat
Something else worries me
His sires Zebedee
Look at his runners under 6 furlongs
In Class 2 or higher they are 0-64
SPRING LOADED has this 0-64 problem
His best form is over a bit further

54 similar races in August-September
All 54 winners ran within the last 6 weeks
Those that did not have a 0-99 record
EAST STREET REVUE fails this 0-99 angle
He needs a career best with a 50 day absence

CONFESSIONAL is a 10yo
Statistically I can't rule him out
But that is a bit too old for me
He has won 4 of 72 races in this class
I can rule him out on this draw angle
Chester 5f handicaps
Any Class of race
Any time of year
Horses aged 8 or more
Drawn 5 or higher
Have a 0-58 record since 1997
CONFESSIONAL is 10 and drawn 6

TAEXALI is 5 years old
25 career stats and just 1 win
That was in a 5 runner maiden
He could win at his best
But not the biggest of horses
Any hustle and bustle from Stall 8
He may not be able to overcome it


Possibles

WILLYTHECONQUEROR 14/1
POETS SOCIETY 13/
POWERALLIED 7/1
VERNE CASTLE 16/1


POETS SOCIETY is unusual
He is a 3yo with a run just 4 days ago
I know horses aged 3 running within 9 days
Have a 0-17 record in all similar races
That makes him unsafe unlike any winners
Something else he has to overcome
If you look at Class 2 Handicaps
Any distance and any time of year
Only 1 horse aged 3 has won
When having 25 or more runs
That winner was in a 7 runner race
None have won one with 26 runs
POETS SOCIETY (25 Runs) is close
He's also lost all 6 times in Class 2

WILLYTHECONQUEROR has a chance
May struggle to win off topweight
But he has a better chance than many


Shortlist

POWERALLIED 7/1
VERNE CASTLE 16/1

POWERALLIED could go well
He has a 0-5 record in Class 2 races
But twice he faced long absences
3 Times he was badly drawn here
POWERALLIED has run 12 times here
When drawn low he has always placed
He has had no luck with the draw recently
Today he at least gets a good draw
He is also on a career low mark as well
He has a good record with a recent run
But hasn't had many chances to have that
I am beginning to warm to him

VERNE CASTLE is interesting
He has never won off his current rating
He has never won above Class 4 before
So on paper he needs a career best
There are positives though
If you look at his Racing Post Ratings
His 3 best lifetime runs
Have come in his last 5 runs
He had excuses for his other 2 runs
The Handicapper has just dropped him 6lbs
His last Racing Post Rating was 101
Look at every horses last run
Their Racing Post Ratings were all lower
He has the best last time out figure
That was admittedly on Sand
And all his best numbers are on sand
But his turf form was a long time ago
His sand runs came after he improved
His turf runs were when he was
No reason at all why Grass shouldn't suit

Selection

£4.50 Each Way POWERALLIED 7/1

£1.00 Win Bet VERNE CASTLE 16/1







BEVERLEY 3.50

11/4 Sandra's Secret, 13/2 Mininggold,
7/1 Point Of Woods, Spirit Of Wedza,
15/2 Grandad's World, 8/1 Dundunah,
10/1 Hilary J, 14/1 Bosham, Kommander Kirkup,
16/1 Ace Master, L C Saloon.

5f Handicap

SANDRA'S SECRET has positives
If I run her profile
As a 4yo winning a 6f race
Running within 2 weeks
I find a W 3 W record from 3 that tried
Bur her numbers stood out more
Last time out Racing Post Ratings
SANDRA'S SECRET achieved and 81 rating
Look at the last time numbers of her rivals
16 52 43 68 73 31 71 23 0 50
Nothing is within touching distance
SANDRA'S SECRET looks a big runner

If you look at 5f races here
With 8-12 runners taking place
Horses drawn 10 or more
Absent more than 3 weeks are 0-44
SPIRIT OF WEDZA has this problem
HILARY J also has this 0-44 problem
KOMMANDER KIRKUP ran badly last time
ACE MASTER is wrong down 3 furlongs
L C SALOON is underraced this season
DUNDUNAH wouldn't be first choice
Not as a 3yo filly well beaten last time
BOSHAM isn't running well enough
GRANDADS WORLS isn't inspiring
Only has 1 run in the last 82 days

This interests me
Runs since August 1st

POINT OF WOODS - 2 runs
MININGGOLD - 2 runs
SANDRA'S SECRET - 2 runs

No other horse has that
They all have 0 or 1 run since Aug 1
That suggests to me
The above 3 horses are the fittest

POINT OF WOODS has a chance
But his numbers are worryingly low
I think if we bet all 3 horses
We have both the fittest horses
And the horse with the best number

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet SANDRA'S SECRET 100/30

£1.50 Win Bet MININGGOLD 6/1

£1.50 Win Bet POINT OF WOODS 7/1





CHESTER 3.55

7/4 Mayyasah, 7/2 Reflect Alexander, Yogi's Girl,
7/1 Deviate, 8/1 Peggy's Angel, 14/1 Wirral Girl
16/1 Supersymmetry, 66/1 Mariah's Melody.

2yo Fillies conditions race over 6f

Past winners had 2 7 6 8 1 6 10 runs
Last years had 2 runs but had a recent run
Normally I'd go for experienced horses

MAYYASAH only has 2 runs
I was thinking about opposing her
But she has the best trainer
And she has the best numbers

I have found a new angle
That suggests she is unsafe

MAYYASAH is drawn in Stall 7
When having only 2 career starts
The following suggests a problem

Chester 6f races
Since 1997
Horses of any age and sex
Under 3 career starts
Have a 31-240 record
All 31 winners were drawn 1-6
Those drawn 7 or higher are 0-61
MAYYASAH fails this 0-61 record
That is any time of year over 20 years

MAYYASAH is the class horse
She may well overcome that
But a stat that's lasted 20 years
I can not bet her at a short price
The main problem here
Is finding a suitable alternative
Stable reliability is a serious wory
David Evans trains 2 of the dangers
YOGI'S FIRL - REFLECT ALEXANDER
Hard to know which is best
Or which I could rely upon
The staking is a guess

Selection

£3.50 Each Way DEVIATE 13/2

£3.00 Win Bet REFLECT ALEXANDER 6/1





HAMILTON 4.50

5/4 Humble Gratitude, 13/8 Equitant,
4/1 Poet's Pride, 12/1 Up Sticks And Go.

2yo Novice over 6f
HUMBLE GRATITUDE sets the standard
I opposed him last time
Questioned his stamina over 6f
The Jury is still about about this
I watched the video and its close
My feeling is stamina is unproven

Unusual for me to go for a once raced
Taking on a twice raced with better numbers
But on this occasion I feel I need to

EQUITANT is a saver
POET'S PRIDE is the main bet
He had his debut at Carlisle

Started favourite drawn 10
Since the stalls were renumbered in 2011
No unraced horse of any age
Has won at Carlisle drawn 10 or higher
That's over any and every distance
At any time of year
It is a very difficult task
POET'S PRIDE came out last
She had many lengths to make up
She bombed home once he get going
He looks a serious runner to me

Selection

£6.50 Win Bet POET'S PRIDE 4/1

£3.50 Saver EQUITANT 2/1





CHELMSFORD 7.50

9/2 Fastnet Tempest, 11/2 Mazzini, 6/1 Squats,
7/1 Masham Star, 10/1 Omran, Sutter County
That Is The Spirit, 12/1 Baraweez, Ibn Malik,
14/1 Constantino, Supersta, 16/1 Suzi's Connoisseur
25/1 Mr Bossy Boots, Swift Approval
33/1 Royal Birth.

Class 2 Handicap over 7f
54 similar races at this time of year
I am trying to narrow this down

Since Chelmsford opened in 2008
No horse won on the straight track
When drawn 15 or higher
Only 1 has won drawn 14 or higher
SWIFT APPROVAL is rejected drawn 15
IBN MALIK has topweight and stall 14
That might be too much for him

Horses from 5f races struggle
None have won in any of the 54 races
They score badly all year round
MAZZINI is rejected from a 5f race
ROYAL BIRTH has the same problem

I don't want heavy recent defeats
The following horses have this problem
Did not achieve enough last time out
SUTTER COUNTY - MY BOSSY BOOTS
SUZI'S CONNOISSUER ran 7 days ago
I wanted a better last run for a 7yo
OMRAN was hammered last time
He doesn't have a recent run
But none were beaten so badly last time
CONSTANTINO has a similar problem

BARAWEEZ hasn't won in 2 years
He is only 6lbs lower than he was in 2015
His profile isn't strong anyway
No Horse dropping from 8f in the last 2 weeks
Were aged 6 or more and he is aged 7
MASHAM STAR is a 3yo with 29 runs
If you look at Class 2 Handicaps
Any distance and any time of year
No 3 year old has won one of these races
With 26 or more career starts
MASHAM STAR tries again to become the first

SUPERSTA has a chance
Not convinced he is running well enough
Not to defy a mark of 100 over 7 furlongs

THAT IS THE SPIRIT is running ok
With some decent numbers here as well
I don't have any strong objections

SQUATS is a 5yo who won last time
With a recent run that is a fair profile

FASTNET TEMPEST is interesting
He came into Royal Ascot as a big improver
He was badly hampered at Ascot
I can excuse his run in a huge field last time

Selection

FASTNET TEMPEST 9/2

Win Bet

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