10 Races Discussed
0 Account Bet

Cork National Day
20/1 Selection in that race
My best bets is in the 1.40
All discussed in next paragraph




TODAY'S MESSAGE

Heavy 10 Preview Sunday
It is more like a Saturday message
A message of interesting angles
Unlike yesterday it's very expansive

One of the main priorities today
Was the Cork Grand National winner
I am surprised by my final selection
It is a big priced horse and a mare
But my angles have ruled a lot out
My Breeding stats ruled others out


Cork Grand National

Cork 3.15

UNE LAVANDIERE 20/1

£4 Each Way

KING'S SONG 5/1

£2 Saver Bet


The other sub plot today
Should I stake an account bet
There were options


Huntingdon 12.40

INIESTA 3/1

Each Way

1/4 Odds 1,2

Odds on favourite opposed
He is the class horse though
I like Iniesta each way
I'd prefer to tightly squeeze..
Another saver into this bet
£1.50 win bet on Serenity Now 11/2
£4.25 each way on Iniesta 3/1
If Iniesta places we return £7.44
It is a tight squeeze though
I will leave it as a simple e/w bet

Naas 12.50

This is a personal bet
But not one I want to stake


Cork 1.05

CASTLEBROOK 5/1

Each Way

Short priced favourite is unsafe
Fails a couple of stronger angles
But the final bet must be guessed
Castlebrook each way is that guess

Cork 1.40

£7 Win Bet FABULOUS SAGA 11/4

£3 Saver Bet ROBIN DES FORET 9/4

I like this bet
We have 2 William Mullins horses
Taking on a Gordon Elliot favourite
I can't stake this bet
As the 5/4 favourite is not a negative
And may be the best of them
But my pair from Mullins stable
Have had more experience
Far more recent runs as well
Hoping it catches the favourite out

The Football is magnificent today
I hope the message turns out that way

I know I am due a bet right now
But I am going to leave a bet today
Hard to know which is my best option
And on a sticky run right now
Shouldn't I be clear of my best bet
Before I stake one.
I think I should.


Today's Best Bet

Cork 1.40

£7 Win Bet FABULOUS SAGA 11/4

£3 Saver Bet ROBIN DES FORET 9/4







SATURDAYS REVIEW

Decided to park the bus yesterday
Reduced the chance of being hurt
The message finished L L P P P

Much of it came down to staking
Some 50-50 calls chosen wrongly
CALITO a good example of that
I went each way so backed a loser
Yet the winner was one of 2 horses
That I could have had a saver bet
That race may have been rescued
BALLYOISIN was a staking dilemma
An each way bet instead of savers
And that could have been rescued

We placed in the Charlie Hall Chase
It was stressful but we managed it
My best bet of the day was at Ascot
BRAQUEUR D'OR placed each way
He made a bit of profit so I'm happy
I just want the best bets paying out

The key thing about yesterday for me
Was a 1-148 statistic I had in 2 races
That was actually a 1-150 statistic
Because 2 horses failed it on Friday
That was quite important yesterday
The reason I needed it to work out
The Stat is one of the strong angles
In the Paddy Power and Hennessy


PROFILES & PREVIEWS


HUNTINGDON 12.40

11/8 Ascendant, 9/4 Serenity Now,
5/2 Iniesta, 20/1 Akula, 25/1 Eastern Lady,
33/1 Desi Daru, 100/1 Demand Respect.

This is a Claiming Hurdle

ASCENDANT is 11 years old
He has 130 days absence

October November December
Claiming Hurdles
Since 2010
Any Distance
There are 34 of these races
All 34 winners were aged under 11
All 34 winners ran within 56 days
Horses absent more than 8 weeks
Have a 0-48 record in these 34 races
ASCENDANT fails both those problems

Claiming Hurdles since 2007
Any Distance
Any Time of year
Horses aged 7 or more
13 or more hurdle races
Absent more than 77 days
Horses with this profile are 0-65
ASCENDANT fails this as well

AKULA is 10 older than ideal
Not keen as he has 1 run since March
I can only shortlist 2 horses

Shortlist

INIESTA
SERENITY NOW

SERENITY NOW has been on the flat
He has hurdling form that can win
But now 6 months since he last hurdled
His 3 previous hurdle runs were F F PU

ASCENDANT is the best horse
But his age and absence put me off
I could go two ways here

Option 1

£8 Win Bet INIESTA 100/30
£2 Saver Bet SERENITY NOW 4/1

Option 2

£5 Each Way INIESTA 3/1

1/4 Odds 1,2

I prefer Option 2 myself





NAAS 12.50

4/1 Doonard Prince, Truffles, 6/1 Harry Speed,
13/2 Accalia, 8/1 Flawlessly, Lily's Prince,
10/1 Haqeeba, 12/1 Independence Day,
14/1 Elegant Emmeline, 20/1 Aspen Belle,
25/1 Night Law, 25/1 Calypso Jo.

5f Handicap

One of the more interesting things
Is last time out Racing Post Ratings
TRUFFLES did an 84 last time out
His rivals produced these numbers
0 75 70 67 37 63 43 68 50 0 41

TRUFFLES then has the best last run
She is a 4yo filly down from a 6f race
With a recent run I can live with the profile

There are a few I would try to avoid
ACCALIA was hammered recently
FLAWLESSLY a filly with 1 run in 78 days
HAQEEBA a filly with 1 run in 67 days
NIGHT LAW a filly also underraced
ASPEN BELLE makes no appeal
Nor does CALYPSO JO down from 8f
ELEGANT EMMELINE is very beatable
INDEPENDANCE DAY doesn't offer much

LILY'S PRICE is not a negative
HARRY SPEED drops from 7f to 5f
Not a negative but he has no 5f form
DOONARD PRINCE is a positive
TRUFFLES is a positive

Selection

£4 Each Way TRUFFLES 6/1
£2 Saver DOONARD PRINCE 7/2

I like this bet
But I had a 5f Irish sprinter lose recently
And not in the mood to risk another
Happy to bet myself
But not staking this one





CORK 1.05

6/4 Shady Operator, 7/2 Daybreak Boy,
13/2 Kirwans Lane, 8/1 Sir Carno, 9/1 Castlebrook,
12/1 Turbine, 20/1 Atlas, Hussle Up, Thereisnodoubt,
25/1 Giveittomestraight, Jetez, 25/1 Off You Go,
33/1 Striking Gold, Texie Rexie, 40/1 Grey Atlantic Way
40/1 Rose's In The Rain, 50/1 Flamingo Lane,
50/1 Triangle Rock, 66/1 D'bru Na Boinne,
66/1 Daring Decree, War House, Western Sea
100/1 Avec Espoir, Ballea Fox.

4yo Maiden Hurdle

SHADY OPERATOR is Joseph O'Brien
Racing Post Rating lats time of 126
Both those factors are persuasive
Very easy to like his chance

But he is very short
This is a massive field
And his profile is not very comforting

18 similar races in November

Horses running within 28 days are 2-132
Horses running within 22 days are 2-101
These are very low numbers
SHADY OPERATOR ran 18 days ago
Since 2011 horses running within 28 days
Have a 0-105 record
Those with under 3 career starts
Have a 0-54 career record
SHADY OPERATOR has this problem

SHADY OPERATOR has another issue
He comes from a 2m 4f race
He drops from 2m 4f to 2m

October November December
Horses from m 3f or longer
Have a 2-96 record in these 3 months
Those running within 34 days are 0-66
Those with under 3 runs are 0-37
SHADY OPERATOR fails both things

Very interesting to see what happens
If we can get SHADY OPERATOR beat
As there are 2 heavy strikes against him

Didnt want TURBINE
Not beaten over on the flat recently

Safest Profiles

KIRWANS LANE has 1 run
He won a Bumper last time
That profile is fine
But 62 days off is hard to read
And we have to worry about stamina
Sired by Excellent Art
The Damsire has a stamina index of 6.7f
Stamina would be my worry

DAYBREAK BOY 8/1 is fine (Drifting to 14/1)

CASTLEBROOK 8/1 is fine (Backed to 6/1)

SIR CARNO 10/1 is fine (Drifting to 16/1)

You can only guess here
There is no magic answer
But I had to do the race
Because of the favourite

Lets try it this way

CASTLEBROOK 5/1

Each Way






HUNTINGDON 1.15

6/4 Speedo Boy, 4/1 Amadeus Rox,
5/1 Jumping Jack, 121 Figeac, 12/1 Keepup Kevin,
12/1 Golconda Prince 20/1 Seaborn,
25/1 Staff College, 100/1 Eggesford.

SPEEDO BOY is very short

AMADEUS ROX Cost a similar amount
He has a better trainer
He has 3 Hurdle runs
Thats 2 more than Speedo Boy
So I give him a chance here

SPEEDO BOY is the right favourite
As he was far classier on the flat
This is not the flat though

JUMPING JACK has claims as well
So I would probably split stake this

Selection

£4.50 Win Bet SPEEDO BOY Evens

£5.50 Place Bet AMADEUS ROX 8/11






NAAS 1.25

Evs Still Standing, 11/4 Sir Erec,
13/2 Scorpion Black, 10/1 Lone Voice,
10/1 Queen Rabab, 14/1 House Call,
20/1 Flindt, 66/1 Rips Dream,
66/1 Sally Browne, Wichita Line
100/1 Windsor Diamond.

2yo Maiden over 8f

STILL STANDING is a short price
He ran 8 days ago over 7 furlongs

Win lose of draw he has a dodgy profile

November and December
2yo Maidens over 8f
Horses from 7f
Running within 11 days
Under 4 career starts
Horses that have this profile
Have a disappointing 1-68 record
Male horses in this record were 0-41
Horses in November with this profile 0-45
STILL STANDING has these problems
HOUSE CALL also has this problem

Now some with this profile
Did win similar races in October
But not later in the year

Much will depend on the opposition
If nothing is any good than
Then STILL STANDING may still win
But it puts me off backing him at 11/10
LONE VOICE is opposed
Didn't run well enough last time

Shortlist

QUEEN RAHAB 8/1 (Unraced)
SCORPION BLACK 8/1
SIR ERIC 7/2 (Unraced)

I would make sure I couldn't lose
If any of these 3 horses won
But I can only guess

£7.50 Win Bet SIR ERIC 7/2

£1.25 Win Bet SCORPION BLACK 8/1

£1.25 Win Bet QUEEN RAHAB 8/1






CORK 1.40

11/8 Cracking Smart, 9/4 Robin Des Foret,
3/1 Fabulous Saga, 25/1 Balakani,
33/1 Snugsborough Benny 33/1 High Nellie.

Listed Class Novice Hurdle over 3m

This looks a 3 horse race
CRACKING SMART
ROBIN DES FORET
FABULOUS SAGA

CRACKING SMART has a chance
Favourite and like the 2011 winner
Despite that I am siding with the other 2
CRACKING SMART has raced once this year
The other pair have raced several times

I am hoping they are much fitter
Both horses trained by Willie Mullins
This is the best profile

Horses with 2-3 hurdle races
Having 6-7-8-9 lifetime starts
Running within 31 days
Beaten under 10 lengths last time
5 horses had this profile
They finished W W W 2 W
FABULOUS SAGA has this profile
I prefer his with a saver on his stablemate

Selection

£7 Win Bet FABULOUS SAGA 11/4

£3 Saver Bet ROBIN DES FORET 9/4





CARLISLE 2.00

3/1 Bridane Rebel, 7/2 Chozen, 6/1 Celtic Flames,
6/1 Ocean Eleven, 10/1 Castletown,
12/1 Bering Upsun, Dulce Panem, Versifier,
16/1 Wig Wam Wiggle, 16/1 Christmas In Usa,
20/1 Instingtive, 25/1 Herecomesnelson.

2m 1f Novice Handicap Hurdle

CASTLETOWN a well backed favourite
I would not risk him
Not coming down half a mile
Having had 1 run this season
Not as a 5 year old

Only 14 had his profile but all 14 lost
Horses aged 5
Coming down 3f or more
1 run this season
Had a 0-23 record
CASTLETOWN is not safe enough

CELTIC FLAMES only has 4 runs
The weight and inexperience combination
Does worry me a bit

CHOZEN has just 3 career starts
A heavy defeat last time hurts his profile

BEING UOSEN doesn't appeal
His sires hurdlers
With under 4 previous hurdle starts
Have a 0-109 record

BRIDANE REBEL has a chance
6yo Mare with 6 weeks off
I'd have liked more career starts

Selection

I could go 2 ways here

£5 Place Bet on CASTLETOWN at 4/5
£5 Win Bet on BRIDANE REBEL 5/1
That would be my personal choice

The other more orthodox bet is this

£4 Each Way BRIDANE REBEL 5/1

£2 Saver Bet CELTIC FLAMES 5/1





NAAS 2.25

4/1 Rickrack, 5/1 Inscribe, The Last Indian,
6/1 Lucky Mistake, 8/1 Slaney Street, 10/1 Excelli,
14/1 Stoked, 16/1 Gentil J, Maudlin Magdalen,
20/1 No Education, Storm Ranger, Wexford Opera,
25/1 Clementina, Raven Banner, Vastonea
33/1 At Your Service.

10f Handicap
Looks too difficult
Just wanted to report a draw stat

Naas 10f races
Since 2008
Horses drawn 11 or higher
Have a 0-72 record in similar races
Several of the high draws are outsiders
STORM RANGER drawn 11 and up 3f
STOKED is drawn 15
AT YOUR SERVICE has a bad draw
CLEMENTIA also has a bad draw
SLANEY STREET has stalk 16 of 16
LUCKY MISTAKE is badly drawn
If we take out a few others hard to like
NO EDUCATION looks underraced
WEXFORD OPERA has 498 days off
RAVEN BANNER a filly absent 345 days
VASTONEA looks very beatable
MAUDLIN MAGDALEN too unorthodox

GENTIL J was thrashed last time
Not easy to trust a filly overcoming that

Shortlist

RICKRACK
INSCRIBE

2 non runners worry me
May have undermined the draw bias



CORK 3.15

7/2 Racing Pulse, 5/1 King's Song,
11/2 A Sizing Network, 13/2 Arkwrisht,
14/1 Bless The Wings, Tulsa Jack,
16/1 Logical Song, Une Lavandiere,
20/1 Raz De Maree, Rogue Angel, Undressed,
20/1 Wounded Warrior, 25/1 King Leon
33/1 Dare To Endeavour.

Cork Grand National
3m 4f Handicap Chase

Seasonal debutants rarely win this
You want horses with recent runs
Ideally quite a few of them if possible
The last 16 winners
Had the following runs that season
1 5 2 2 6 3 5 5 5 0 7 3 4 3 3 3
14 of the 16 winners had 3+ runs that year
WOUNDED WARRIOR is a seasonal debutant
With Topweight he is rejected
BLESS THE WINGS has to go as well
I can't accept a 12yo first time out
The only other debutant is the favourite

RACING PULSE trained by Willie Mullins
I am not going to select him first time out
Not with the record of past winners
And not when he is an 8yo as well
RACING PULSE is sired by Garuda
He has bred a 3m 1f Catterick winner on good
None have won over further than that
If you look at the record of sire Garuda
His runners on ground softer than good
In fields of 8 or more
His runners over 2m 4f and more
Have a 0-38 record
If he wins he wins but there are doubts
On breeding as well as fitness

You don't want a poor recent run
KING LEON and UNDRESSED have that
DEAR TO ENDEAVOUR has the same problem
ROGUE ANGEL didn't do enough last time

RAZ DE MAREE won this last year aged 11
I cant have him this year as a 12 year old
Not falling last time and with more weight

LOGICAL SONG doesn't have the numbers
Going up a mile in trip hurts him as well
Not my favourite sire in similar races either

TULSA JACK is an exposed 8yo chaser
Not keen on young horses with lots of chasers
TULSA JACK has as many as 24 Chase starts

28 similar races
Horses aged 6-7-8-9
15 or more Chase runs
Have a 0-55 record in these races
TULSA JACK fails this 0-55 statistic

WOUNDED WARRIOR also fails it
ROGUE ANGEL also fails it
A SIZING NETWORK also fails it
KING LEON also fails it

ARKWRISHT is a 7 year old with recent runs
Falling last time does not help his profile
But some 7 year olds did overcome it
Ran a career best before he fell
If he stays he could easily win

KING'S SONG is sired by King's Theatre
If I look at this sires runners over 3m 3f +
In Class 2 + on soft or heavy ground
Not including Cross Country races
I find a 0-30 record with his runners
Thats my first objection to him
Last time out 7 year old winners
Only followed up with under 8 chase runs
KING'S SONG has 11 Chase runs
So there are problems with his chance
But he has just had a huge stable upgrade
Bought cheaply he has gone up 16lbs
I can't underestimate the brilliant trainer
But I had enough queries to worry me

A SIZING NETWORK is a 7yo
He won last time out and is running well
Most 7yo winners had 12 or fewer chase runs
A SIZING NETWORK now has 17 Chase runs
That is a lot and he is nort like a winner
If you look at his sire Network
His runners over 3m 3f and nore are 0-19
So stamina has clearly got to be proven

Shortlist

Nothing is problem free


KING'S SONG is a threat off such a lightweight
He fails my Breeding stats
King's Theatre in Class 2 long distance races
But this is not as classy as it looks
It reads more like a genuine 0-138

UNE LAVANDIERE doesn't leap off the page
Not as a mare from a Novice Chase
But he won a chase 2 runs ago
And runs since and before that
Earnt ratings better than her handicap mark
A recent winner came via a Beginners Chase
His sire has an Irish National winner
If My sire stats hold up and work out
Especially around King's Theatre
UNE LAVANDIERE could be a big player
The Novice Chase he was 3rd in last time
Was won by A Sizing Network
UNE LAVANDIERE has a big pull at the weights
And may be better suited to the extra half mile


Potential Savers

WHATAREUDOINGTOME
KING'S SONG
A SIZING NETWORK
ARKWRISHT

KING'S SONG is my chosen saver

Selection

£4 Each Way UNE LAVANDIERE 18/1-20/1-22/1

£2 Win Bet KING'S SONG 5/1




NAAS 4.00

9/4 Tocco D'Amore, 3/1 Mustajeer,
5/1 Lagostovegas, 7/1 Laws Of Spin,
9/1 Ted Veale, 11/1 Play The Game,
12/1 Sanus Per Aquam, 16/1 Dew Line
33/1 Two For Tea.

12f Listed race

TOCCO D'AMORE has 1 run
Tough to win a Pattern race with 1 run
Especially over 12f and late season
Several do it in the spring often at Chester
But July onwards it is far harder
July to December
Listed and Group races
12f or longer
Horses with 1 run
Have a 1-22 record
The only winner was Crimean Tatar
He did not have to come up in distance
TOCCO D'AMORE does
That is why I would oppose him

LAWS OF SPIN drops from 2m 2f
LAGOSTOVEGAS drops from 2m 2f
That is a 6f drop in distance
This angle worries me

October November December
12f races
Any kind of race
Any Class of race
Horses from 2m 2f or more
Have a 0-51 record in these months
That does put me off these a bit

TED VEALE is down half a mile
May not be easy for a 10yo doing that

Shortlist

MUSTAJEER has to be shortlisted
He is weak in the market though

PLAY THE GAME is a bit short of runs
But on last time out Racing Post Ratings
He has the highest number in the race
In a field of negatives and dodgy profiles
At a double figure price he is interesting

Selection

£6 Win Bet MUSTAJEER 9/2

£2 Each Way PLAY THE GAME 14/1


swltbnab

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