5 Races discussed
0 Staked Bet

This Sunday offers 5 Previews
I was expecting a nice calm day
Might just be livelier than I thought
Feels some good stuff in here today
But for various reasons such as prices
I am calling it early as a no bet day



TODAY'S MESSAGE

5 Previews

Goodwood 3.05
Curragh 3.20
Goodwood 4.15
Goodwood 4.45
Curragh 5.30


3 Previews stand out

Curragh 3.20

Goodwood 4.45

Curragh 5.30


All 3 offer interesting issues
I think I'm on the right lines in all of them
But all 3 of them are difficult to stake
Dropping prices is making this harder
I am going to highlight 1 race today


Curragh 3.20

£8.00 RATTLING JEWEL 100/30

£2.00 Win Saver SORS 9/2

I was thinking about staking a bet here
But it was when the prices were bigger
Rattling Jewel was 5/1 and is now 100/30
Sors was 6/1 and is now 9/2

I wanted an each way bet and saver
The prices shrunk just before 9am
It was hard enough to stake anyway
So now I feel we should leave it unstaked






NEXT WEEK

The last week before Royal Ascot
There will be a day off soon
I don't know when but I'd like to keep going
Will see how I feel after the Tennis today
Right now I want to do a Monday message

Likely to be 1 Ante Post bet at Ascot
It won't be given before Friday next week
As there are not yet any entries for my race
But one race in particular I wanted to target






Tennis Update

French Open Final Today
Rafa Nadal v Stan Wawrinka
Nadal is Leg 2 of my Summer Trilogy

Churchill (Won)
Rafa Nadal
Order of St George
Each Way Doubles +Treble

I know a few of you have joined me
Like me you will be very hopeful he wins
Stan Wawrinka is top class on his day
I wouldn't be surprised to see Nadal win 3-1
I have backed Wawrinka at 9/2
Just to save and recover my stakes







SATURDAYS REVIEW

10 Previews on a very hectic Saturday
These races finished P W W P W L W P L L
The Staked bet returned the full stakes
SHOWCASING thankfully saved the day
He was a £2 saver and got up to win late
It was purely his fitness that got him home
KINGSLEY KLARION was the main part
He was just unable to cope with the ground
It was heavy by the time the race was run
He disappointed but our saver rescued us
To be fair we didn't really deserve a loser.

The message went 6 races without a loser
We had 4 winners 3 places and 3 losers
On a rainy Saturday that is a good return
TWENTYTWOWONTDO was highlighted
The price went 3/1 into 5/2 before I sent him
Not long later he was 7/4 which is a shame
Pleased he won but some may have left him
Haydock amazed me with 2 bets 2 winners
Some good stuff lurking around in many races
The last 2 races produced a whimpering finale
The ground changed a draw bias in the 5.40
The winning stalls were 14 12 11 13 16
I misread the bias in that Sprint handicap
Would've liked the last winner but not to be
We did ok but at least the main bet survived




PROFILES & PREVIEWS




GOODWOOD 3.05

7/2 Zac Brown, 4/1 Ladweb, 5/1 Fredricka
6/1 Pettochside, 7/1 Seamster, Waseem Faris
8/1 Dungannon, 11/1 Intibaah.

This is a Veterans handicap over 5f
Only horses aged 6 or more can run
Only 19 similar races at any time of year

None of them were aged 10 or more
DUNGANNON is therefore rejected
SEAMSTER is also 10 years old
He is hard to rule out with recent runs
Fitness is clearly an important factor
Given the youngest age is 6 years old
If I look at horses with 1 run that season
Very few races went to these horses
None went to a horse from a 5f race
When having just 1 run this season
LADWEB failing that is rejected
INTIBAAH is ruled out on this angle
WASEEN FARIS has 2 runs this season
Given he is 8 and has 5 weeks absence
He may not be as fit and some others
I am shortlisting the fittest horses

Shortlist

ZAC BROWN
FREDRICKA
PETTOCHSIDE

My problem with ZAC BROWN
His softer ground numbers
He has Racing Post Ratings
Over 5f on softer ground of 79 70 57
Most other horses have beaten that
If you look at horses sired by Kodiac
Aged 4 or more running over 5f
Those running on soft or heavy are 0-27
Those running on Good to Soft or worse 1-58
I just worry about his 5f soft ground achievements
I prefer the other two options

Selection

£4 Each Way FREDRICKA 9/2

£2 Win Bet PETTOCHSIDE 4/1




CURRAGH 3.20

4/1 A Few Dollars More, Rattling Jewel, 6/1 Sors
8/1 Enter The Red, Shore Step, 12/1 Ambiguity, Sahreej
14/1 Aggression, Strategic Force, 16/1 Captain Cullen
20/1 Bluesbreaker.

5f Handicap
Quality race
A Thinking aloud preview
That turns out to be quite interesting

I felt the favourite was unsafe
A FEW DOLLARS MORE drops from 7f to 5f
He ran only 6 days ago
He was beaten 24 lengths in that race
That is far from a safe profile
There are other profiles I don't like
ENTER THE RED is an 8yo seasonal debutant
CAPTAIN CULLEN drops from 8f to 5f
BLUESBREAKER drops from 8f to 5f
AGGRESSION is a 3yo hammered last time
None of these look safe enough
If I look at 4 year olds with 9 or more runs
Those racing this season
Absent over 32 days have a 0-65 record
SAHREEJ has this problem and is hard to like

So far we are left with 5 horses

RATTLING JEWEL - SORS -
SHIORE STEP - AMBIGUITY
STRATEGIC FORCE

2 Interesting observations

I ran some Breeding stats
Which of these horses sired
Have bred 5f winners on soft or heavy
In Class 3 or higher like today

Only 4 horses pass my breeding tests

1) RATTLING JEWEL
2) SORS
3) SAHREEJ
4) A FEW DOLLARS MORE

So My Shortlist
Matched with my Breeding Shortlist
Leads to these 2 horses


1) RATTLING JEWEL
2) SORS

Another thing very interesting
Look at last time out Racing Post Ratings
Every runners last figure

88 Rattling Jewel
74 Sors
70 Shore Step
65 Enter The Red
64 Sahreej
62 Strategic Force
53 Aggression
44 Ambiguity
38 Captain Cullen
23 A Few Dollars More
0 Bluesbreaker

RATTLING JEWEL is miles clear
Now I appreciate that is not all that relevant
It only looks at "last time out"
Horses with low numbers will have excuses
But it is still miles clear
And unusual to see in a classy 5f sprint
And as he passes my breeding stats
One of only 2 that does
I can't see any reason not to select him

SORS is the other that does
Now whilst he is ridden by a 10lbs claimer
Something I would rather not have
Look at his Penultimate run
That was a Racing Post Rating of 100
It was a massive run and dwarfs these
SORS is easily the class horse

RATTLING JEWEL clearly next best
He also comes here off a lifetime best

I think they dominate
They might just even finish 1st and 2nd
My bigger headache is which one is best ?

I was going with this staking
Before the prices changed
£4.00 Each Way RATTLING JEWEL 5/1
£2.00 Win Saver SORS 7/1
But Now I am forced to revise it to this

Selection

£8.00 RATTLING JEWEL 100/30

£2.00 Win Saver SORS 7/1






GOODWOOD 4.15

2/1 Milton Road, 5/2 Quick Skips Lad,
7/2 Tie Em Up Tel 8/1 One Drunken Night, 12/1 Dolly Dagger
16/1 Cranworth Phoenix, Rachael's Rocket.

2yo Selling race over 5f

Only 14 of these races in June
My angles don't post a clear picture
None of these have strong profiles

MILTON ROAD offers most positives
But he offers a variety of things
The most experience
The shortest absence
The best numbers as well
His Racing Post Ratings are good enough
He will win if he produces his best figure
That is unlikely but he may still have enough
2 of his 6 opponents are unraced
Rachael's Rocket is hard to like on debut
One Drunken Night is also unraced
TIE EM UP TELL has raced twice
He's miles behind on the numbers though
CRANWORTH PHOENIX has the same problem
Two runs both races provide low numbers
DOLLY DAGGER has the same problem too

QUICK STEPS LAD looks the danger
If you look at his sire Lilbourne Lad
His runners over 5f on ground softer than good
Have a 1-33 record that winner in a smaller field
Not the most persuasive of sires
QUICK STEPS LAD has 1 run in 47 days
MILTON ROAD has 4 runs in the last 47 days
Comes from a stronger stable as well

Selection

MILTON ROAD 11/8

Win Bet






GOODWOOD 4.45

11/4 Time To Exceed, 7/2 The Warrior
9/2 Medburn Dream, 8/1 Mister Music, 9/1 Tai Sing Yeh
10/1 Scottish Glen, 12/1 Athassel, 14/1 Aventinus
14/1 Professor.

This is a 7f Handicap for horses rated 0-92
June has 147 similar races

The favourite is hardly the safest option
TIME TO EXCEED is a 4yo filly
She has to come up from a 6f race

4 year olds of any sex
Coming from 6f or shorter
Running in the last 12 weeks
Have an under-performing 1-58 record
Those that were fillies were 0-9
TIME TO EXCEED fails this 0-9 angle
Those with under 17 runs were 0-45
TIME TO EXCEED fails this 0-45 angle

She may well defy that and go and win
But her profile is not good enough to interest me
She has a very good stable
Which is probably why she is favourite
Her profile suggests she shouldn't be
SCOTTISH GLEN is 11 years old
I would want far more runs this season
Not persuaded by the 3 year olds here
TAI SING YEH is an inexperienced 3yo
Doesn't offer enough on his last run
AVENTINUS is 3 and well beaten last time
I wanted a better last run

THE WARRIOR is a bit quirky
There is something I like about him
Look at Last time out Racing Post Ratings

THE WARRIOR did a rating of 93 last time
His last 3 Racing Post Ratings are 92 90 93
A last time rating of 93 is the best in the field
His rivals last time out numbers were these
77 83 88 87 76 88 73 57
THE WARRIOR has a handsome edge there
It tells me he is running as well as anyone

If you ignore the unfit Scottish Glen
Which I do as a 11yo with 1 run this season
THE WARRIOR then has a 0-85 field to beat

His last run was when beaten in 2nd place
That was over this course and distance
Look at the ratings of the horses he met
88 91 89 102 100 86 98 97 89
Today aside from an unfit 11 year old
He faces rivals rated considerably lower
Hard to know how far I can trust him
But I think he has to be the selection
Rather than bet him each way I'm saving

Selection

£6.50 Win Bet THE WARRIOR 4/1

£2.50 Win Bet MEDBURN DREAM 3/1

£1.00 Win Bet PROFESSIR 11/1





CURRAGH 5.30

3/1 Mr Everest, 4/1 Constancio, 5/1 High Haven
6/1 Bold Knight, 10/1 Leven, 12/1 Lady Shaana, Purdey
14/1 Winston Wolfe, 20/1 Rosmarine, The Sneaky Punter
25/1 Hague Convention, Orchard Road
50/1 Fort Denison.

12f Maiden race
When I look at older horses aged 4 or more
You have to split these races into 2 categories
The races that involve 3 year olds
The races that do not

Simple reason why
An older horse has more chance
If it is restricted to his/her own age group

Now this race has 3 year olds in it
And if it leads me to an interesting statistic

12f Maiden races
Open to 3 year olds and older
Horses aged 4 or more
Having their first ever race
Have a 3-170 record

Those racing on Turf were 1-97
Those racing on good or softer ground were 0-53
Those in fields of 8 or more were 0-131

Two horses fail these angles

HIGH HAVEN is an unraced 4yo filly
MR EVEREST is also an unraced 4yo
On the above angles I must oppose them

The success or failure of these angles
Relies on their being a legitimate alternative
And here we run into problems

BOLD KNIGHT didn't set pulses racing last time
I suppose he could be seen as a possible saver

FORT DENISON didn't do much either

Possibly the most likely winner
Is the impossible to read CONSTANCIO
He was beaten over 40 lengths last time
The official excuse was his " bit went through mouth"
Assuming that is a legitimate excuse
And I think we have no option to take it as that

But I can not run his profile properly
And I also can not judge his fitness either
As he was tailed off after 2 furlongs last time
He is also a 4 year old as well
In a race I would prefer a 3 year old
Given the stat about unraced older horses
I feel I need to go with CONSTANCIO
Either as an each way bet
Or with 3 year old savers

Selection

Option 1

CONSTANCIO 11/4

Each Way


Option 2

£8 Win Bet CONSTANCIO 11.4
£1 Win Bet BOLD KNIGHT 9/1
£1 Win Bet FORT DENISON 10/1

I prefer Option 1


CONSTANCIO 11/4

Each Way

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