6 Previews
1 Staked Bet

Scruffy looking message today
I have finished up with 6 Previews
Happy with getting that far in the end
As I wasn't feeling too well earlier
Fine now but was struggling for a while
So not bothered about tarting it up
But I have gone back to the account


Today's Bet

Downpatrick 3.40

LEOMAR 4/1

Each Way


9/2 Spbet
4/1 Ladbrokes Coral Bet365 Skybet PPower
4/1 VC Betfair Independants Boyles
7/2 Hills Betfred Tote

Take 7/2 or better
Won't be an easy bet to get on





TODAY'S MESSAGE

6 Previews

Carlisle 1.30
Newbury 1.50
Doncaster 2.45
Downpatrick 3.05
Downpatrick 3.40
Newbury 8.05

I am ignoring the Newbury 1.50pm
Not proven nearly enough for a bet
Like the blind leading the blind
I like the Newbury 8.05pm
But not spent enough time here
Unpleasant race and complicated
I want to mention/highlight 4 races

Carlisle 1.30

ARNARSON 5/2

Each Way


Small Stakes burglary bet
1/4 the odds and just 2 places
I honestly don't know what I have here
A Trainer I hate and a profile I can't trust
Yet something is very logical about this bet
I think it's worth a bet without going mad


Doncaster 2.45

KING OF PARIS 11/10

Win Bet

Short price so not very exciting
But he has a strong profile
Taking on a small filly with an absence
And I thought he probably should win



Downpatrick 3.05

£4 Each Way ATLANTIC BREAKER 4/1
£2 Saver Bet WESTLAND ROW 100/30

Unusual 5 runner hurdle race
Worried about a Non runner here
There is an odds on favourite
That probably should be avoided
I could have chosen either of these
Obviously another danger is picking wrong
Plenty could yet go wrong here
But I liked the bet enough to highlight it



Downpatrick 3.40

LEOMAR 4/1

Each Way

What we have here
Is a disappointing frustrating horse
Who should go very close to winning
As he takes on beatable opposition
Who lack his hurdling experience



Today's Best Bet


Downpatrick 3.40

LEOMAR 4/1

Each Way

I think he should win this
Like most each way bets
My worry is fading once caught



Wimbledon

We reach the Semi Final Stages
Some of us have backed Marin Cilic
Hopefully he can get to the final
I still give him a chance of winning
But Federer is obviously the problem
There is an air of inevitability about this
Hard to see anything but a Federer win
But we have a chance and hedging options
No real strong views on the women's
Surprised Venus Williams isn't favourite
The betting looks wrong to me in her semi

Yesterday I saw some Ante Post Nibbling
Marin Cilic was being backed at 33/1
To win the US Open in a few weeks time
You can see the logic in that market move
He won the US Open in 2014 so he's done it
He has clearly improved and is playing well
He is not yet beaten at Wimbledon yet
But with Murray facing serious problems
And possibly a long spell on the sidelines
Djokovic also expected to take a long break
Both players could well miss the US Open
Federer has not won the US Open since 2008
In 9 years he has reached just the 1 final
It is not Federer's best surface
Rafa Nadal won it in 2010 and 2013
But has gone out early in the last 2 years
On a hard court his chance is just average
The Top 4 are slowly disintegrating
There is still some 33/1 MARIN CILIC in this
Betting him now at 33/1 may be a smart move




WEDNESDAY'S REVIEW

Ended up with a 4 Preview message
After the opening bet was a non runner
The message then went W W L L
Not too bad I suppose given the prices
My best bet was one of the two losers
It was the biggest price so not surprised
I liked my angles in that Dundalk race
But most Class 2 races are in bigger fields
Which is why I didn't want to stake the bet
HANNINGTON was a decent start for us
COOL TEAM followed up afterwards
We didn't get anything in the final preview
FETHIYE BOY went off a bit too quickly






PROFILES & PREVIEWS





CARLISLE 1.30

13/8 Kynren, 2/1 Arnarson,
True Colors, 16/1 Excellent Story
16/1 Pipers Way, 50/1 Shine Baby Shine.

8F Maiden
Down to 6 runners

KYNREN has raced once before
Did very well for a 66/1 chance
But he was 66/1 for various reasons
Not overkeen on supporting horses like him
Who came into debuts with no signs of confidence

ARNARSON offers more with experience
His Numbers are generally positive
He has to step up from a 6f race
That is not so difficult when absence several weeks
And alternatives have problems of their own

EXCELLENT STORY is a debutant
He has to prove stamina and ability
TRUE COLOURS is also unraced

Selection

Small Stakes

ARNARSON 5/2

Each Way





NEWBURY 1.50

11/4 Atty Persse, 4/1 Raheen House, 6/1 Crowned Eagle
Desert Skyline, 7/1 Wolf Country, 8/1 Wisconsin
12/1 Tamleek, 14/1 Sofia's Rock, 25/1 Face The Facts.

The Bahrain Trophy
Group race over 1m 5f

ATTY PERSSE comes from a handicap
He has no form in Pattern races
The last winner of this from a handicap
Was all the way back in 2004
Horses from Handicaps with under 6 starts
Have not won this race in 16 seasons now
Not easy to find clear cut negatives here
More horses with a collection of problems
RAHEEN HOUSE for example has Stall 1
Not a safe enough draw over 1m 5f here
He also has a very unreliable stable
WOLF COUNTRY comes from a 10f race
That is a 3f step up in distance
No horse managed that with his profile
Not with just 2 runs this season
None with absent longer than 3 weeks either
TAMLEEK also comes from 10f as well

The best trial race is the Queen's Vase at Ascot
The best profile I can found
Male horse with 4-10 runs
Coming from the Queen's Vase
Starting under 25/1 in that race
Beaten under 10 lengths in that race
Horses with that profile were 7024
DESERT SKYLINE has this profile

Selection

Small Stakes

DESERT SKYLINE 8/1

Each Way





DONCASTER 2.45

11/10 King Of Paris, 5/2 Roubles, 6/1 My Cherokee
10/1 Chatoyer, 12/1 Decision Maker, Katheefa
20/1 My Angel, 33/1 Maid In India, Snow Excuse.

3yo Maiden over 6f

There not many that can win this
CHATOYER has 3 runs and none very good
Racing Post Ratings of 51 38 56 very modest
H needs 20lbs improvement to win this
MY CHEROKEE is sired by Sleeping Indian
His unraced horses over 6f are just 2-145
All 32 of them aged 3 were beaten
No unraced filly by this sire is safe at 6f

Much depends on ROUBLES
Filly with 1 run and that was 76 days ago
When badly drawn on her debut
If I look at once raced fillies with absences
I can't find a winner like her
I can over 6f and 8f but not 7f
That doesn't bother me much
But I prefer KING OF PARIS for 2 reasons

The first is size
ROUBLES is only a little thing
So she may not have as much scope as I'd want
Given that she is a filly with a nasty absence
The other reason is the favourite
KING OF PARIS has a good profile

6f Maidens in July
Horses from 7f Handicaps
Running within 6 weeks
Beaten under 10 Lengths last time
8 Horses have ran with this profile
They finished W 9 W W 3 2 W 2
KING OF PARIS shares a 4-8 profile

Selection

KING OF PARIS 11/10

Win Bet





DOWNPATRICK 3.05

11/10 Mr Showtime, 3/1 Westland Row
7/2 Atlantic Breaker, 11/2 Verona Opera
100/1 Princess Harriet.

2m 1f Hurdle race

This is a non handicap hurdle
For horses who have not won a hurdle
Unless it was just 1 cheap hurdle race
Complicated but one thing interests me

MR SHOWTIME drops from 3m 1f to 2m 1f
I think the following shows weakness in his profile

Non Hurdle races since 2007
Any kind of Non hurdle
Any time of year
Run over short of 2m 2f

Male horses aged under 7
Running within 26 days
Finishing the race last time
Show a 0-54 record all year round
Not the easiest thing to drop a mile
Not with a recent run as well
MR SHOWTIME is not safe enough

There are 4 possible selections
VERONA OPERA is not first choice
Not as a Mare coming from a Chase

I think we have an each way bet and saver
WESTLAND ROW must have a decent chance
ATLANTIC BREAKER also every chance
He comes here after a win
Both have winning track form as well

Selection

£4 Each Way ATLANTIC BREAKER 5/1

£2 Win Bet WESTLAND ROW 3/1




DOWNPATRICK 3.40

11/8 Super Bowl, 5/1 Leomar, 6/1 Shamash
15/2 Chateauneuf Du Pap, 9/1 A Year To Remember
14/1 South Of Java, 10/1 Mezajy, 25/1 Unchago.

2m 3f Maiden hurdle

Looked at all similar races in July
Run over 2m 2f to 2m 4f

SUPERBOWL is only a 4yo
He only has 1 hurdle run before
Not convinced we should accept that
When we have older more experienced horses

Maiden hurdles in July
2m 1f or more
Horses aged 4
1 Previous hurdle race
4 or more Previous flat races
Show a 0-18 record in this month
Not a negative especially from his trainer
But at a short price I won't risk him
Not SHAMASH either given his sire
Not a National hunt sire
Didn't convince enough just 5 days ago
Looks a smaller flat bred to me

CHATEAUNEUF DU PAP comes from a bumper
His trainers record with hurdling debutants is 1-62
Not good enough to interest me
A YEAR TO REMEMBER has plenty to prove
I have to side with LEOMAR
Disappointing he is still 0-11 over hurdles

He has lots of experience unlike most here
Racing Post Hurdle Ratings
107 110 110 105 110 106 106 108 97 106 106
That's reasonable and consistent
May well be enough to win this
Against lighter raced horses
I think he went off too fast last time

Selection

LEOMAR 4/1

Each Way




NEWBURY 8.05

5/1 Chocolate Box, 6/1 Inn The Bull, 7/1 Inconceivable
8/1 Nordic Combined, 8/1 Onorina, 10/1 Balancing Time
10/1 Gambol, Master Archer, 12/1 Flight Of Fantasy, Tobacco Road,
20/1 Ban Shoof, Lovely Story, The Otmoor Poet, 25/1 Takbeer
33/1 Sheila's Fancy.

1m 5f Hamdicap

Competitive race
Awkward Distance
A long Preview would not be cost effective

CHOCOLATE BOX has been threatening to win
I liked him last time and he should have won
I would not want to oppose him in this race

If you look at the Draw here
Newbury races over 1m 5f or longer
Since 2003
Horses drawn 13 or higher
Have a 1-65 record
Since 2007 they have a 0-38 record
Hard to win drawn 13 or higher here
ONORINA has a difficult draw in Stall 14
FLIGHT OF FANTASY is drawn 13
She is only a 3yo filly with a nasty absence
INN THE BELL is drawn 16
Many of his main rivals have problems
There could be dark one lurking around
But CHOCOLATE BOX should go close
He does look a horse about to win

Selection

CHOCOLATE BOX 3/1

Win Bet


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