2 Races discussed

0 Staked Bet

Shorter message today to end the week
Normally I'd have taken a break tomorrow
I want to keep going for a few more days
As I have been in good form before yesterday
The price of that has to be a shorter message


Today's Bet

No Bet



TODAY'S MESSAGE

Before Saturday I had been going so well
I am going to put yesterday down to experience
Not going to let yesterday knock me off track
Some people like to hit back fast after a loser
I don't just preferring to sit back and take stock

I've kept it deliberately short today
To recharge the batteries for the early week cards

2 Previews

Not going for an account bet today
One of these is at Ripon
That is one of my worst tracks
The best bet is probably the hurdle option

Limerick 2.55

FINTARA 7/2

Each Way





SATURDAYS SUMMARY

Did not go well or as planned yesterday
The first half of the message was strong
I expected the reverse to happen
Just shows you can never predict these things
Not on a 10 preview Saturday on softer ground
The first half of the message was encouraging
The second half was promoted as better
That clearly did not happen as planned
It made for a painful message in the end
We didn't have much go our way at all
Belgravian for example unseating at the start
I think we lost the Ostatnia and Go Kart race
As they went off too quickly setting the pace
Impossible to paint it as anything short of poor
The main bet is rarely a straight forward choice
OUR MAN IN HAVANA ran poorly in 6th
He did not seem to cope with the conditions
Both his parents won on soft or heavy
I was happy to risk him on softer ground
But it probably just became too heavy in the end
It was raining all afternoon just making it worse
Our jockey gave him an easy time once beaten
It was a strange race with outsiders dominating
And the runners all sprayed across the track
He flopped in the same way the message did
It made yesterday an unpleasant experience



A N T E P O S T

Just a quick Ante Post recap and look ahead
Starting off with my Summer Triology

2000 Guineas - Churchill (Won 6/4)
French Open Tennis - Rafa Nadal 5/4
Ascot Gold Cup - Order of St George 2/1
Each Way Doubles @ Treble

Rafa Nadal 5/4 is so important to my bet
No value in the price right now though
Not now that Novak Djokovic is back in form
This is now a massive threat to the Trilogy

If Rafa wins then I will be in a perfect position
My main worry with Order Of St George
Is treading on a stone or getting injured
I think he will be a shade of odds on at Ascot

Europa League Cup Final

Before this all concludes there are other events
Wednesday night is the Europa League Cup Final
I advise all fellow Manchester United fans
To bet Ajax to win the Trophy as an insurance bet
To compensate for what would be a painful loss
I've been laying United Outright around 1.53-1.58
In the match itself my prediction is a 0-0 draw


Oaks + Derby

I like RHODEDENDROM in the Oaks
The 5/2 each way boat has sailed
I don't have a penny on her right now
She appeals to me as an each way double bet
But the clocks ticking and nothing is planned
On the day she will have a clear edge on numbers
And a clear edge on experience as well
I'd personally prefer her in an each way double


My current thoughts in the Derby
This doesn't feel like a high class year
CHURCHILL probably won't run
He was never going to be my bet anyway
CRACKSMAN wont be my selection
I am going to oppose him in the race
Twice raced winners are not common
When they do win they fall into 2 categories
Either winning in a very bad year like Workforce
Or having 2 runs that year like Ruler Of The World
CRACKSMAN has just 1 run this season
That is why I am opposing him with just 2 runs
Missing the Dante Stakes is not a positive
BEST SOLUTION will not be my bet either
I can't being myself to bet a son of Kodiac
PERMIAN with 10 runs won't be my bet
Can't rule him out but I will prefer others
DUBAI THUNDER with 1 run will be opposed
EMINENT - Not rejecting him just yet
But the best he could be would be a saver
VENICE BEACH - Not rejecting him just yet
MIRAGE DANCER 16/1 is on my shortlist
He is probably going to be a saver
You may as well have that saver today at 16/1
He will probably go off 7/1 and get beaten
Paying on at 16/1 weeks before is acceptable
CAPRI 25/1 is still on my shortlist
If I go with a big priced bet it could be him
I think he is great value but not sure if he will run
No point second guessing that stable
CLIFFS OF MOHER is also on my shortlist
He looks a potential bet each way at 9/2
Many argue the dam was a 5 furlong horse
She would not have been had she raced on
If Ryan Moore rides a place is surely assured




PROFILES & PREVIEWS


LIMERICK 2.25

11/4 Khalessi, 7/2 Fintara, 9/2 D'Pinesflyer, 7/1 Supreme One
8/1 Alaliya, 9/1 Mistheatre, 10/1 Wings Like Arion
20/1 Regal D'Argent 33/1 Darcellyeann, Kalanisi Repre
40/1 The Last Armada 50/1 Absentee, Ask The Diviner
50/1 Ballygill Countess, June Carter, Superefficient

Mares Maiden hurdle

FINTARA looks the sensible option
She one of the more orthodox runners
Reasonably good numbers and running well
I think she is safer than several of these

D'PINESFLYER was hammered 7 days ago
That was her first run since September
I think she was beaten too far too recently

KHALESSI has a similar problem
She too has quite a recent run
She has raced just once in 199 days now

Mares Maiden Hurdles
Any and every distance
Any and every month of the year
Horses with 7 or more hurdle runs
Running within the last 3 weeks
Having just 1 run in the last 3 months
Have a 0-34 record all year round
D'PINESFLYER has this 0-34 problem
KHALESSI has this 0-34 problem
Not a dealbreaker as a statistic
But it highlights a possible problem
Of only 1 run in several months
For horses that can not be said to be lightly raced
Both are the main market rivals to Fintara

SUPREME ONE is quite inexperienced
Can't rule her out but she is playing catch up
MISTHEATRE faces similar issues
Her only hurdle run was as a 100/1 chance
WINGS LIKE ARION only has bumper form
FINTARA made most appeal
There could be something dark lurking around
But I'm hoping there are not 3 that can beat her

Selection

FINTARA 7/2

Each Way





RIPON 4.10

3/1 The Feathered Nest, 6/1 Sandra's Secret
7/1 Southern Belle 7/1 Savannah Slew, 9/1 Tumblewind
10/1 Groupie, Love Island 12/1 Perfect Madge
12/1 Honeysuckle Lil, Rose Marmara
25/1 Blithe Spirit.

This is a 6f Handicap for fillies
There are 16 similar races in May

Interesting we have 3 year olds taking part
The issue with 3 year olds has so far been clear
Unless they win last time out
And have a recent run they are best avoided
Last year the first 3 year old won this race
She came here off the back of a recent win

If you look at the 16 similar races
Horses aged 3 had a 2-39 record
Both winners had recent wins
3 year olds beaten last time were 0-30
3 year olds absent more than 2 weeks were 0-32
If those angles continue to work out today
Then the 3 year olds in this race might fail

THE FEATHERED EDGE is a 3yo
Neither winning last time or running recently
I am not drawn to her with just 4 runs
SAVANNAH SLEW is only a 3yo
Not keen on her coming from 5f with a break
PERFECT MADGE looks the wrong type of 3yo
GROUPIE has to go as a 3yo first time out
If I look at fillies handicaps at every distance
None of the winners in May were aged 8 or more
None won first time out aged 6 or more
LOVE ISLAND therefore looks at unlikely winner
Horses from 5f races have underperformed
BLYTHE SPIRIT has this problem
Did not do enough last time to win this off topweight
TUMBLEWIND also comes from a 5f race
With just 1 run this year only 3 days ago
Horses from 5f with 1 run this year are 0-18
She probably doesn't have enough to win
ROSE MARMARA did not offer enough

Shortlist

SANDRA'S SECRET
SOUTHERN BELLE
HONEYSUCKLE LIL

HONEYSUCKLE LIL only just gets 6f
She does not stay any further than 6f
Whilst this is a rise in class on her last run
She has won her only race in this Class before

SANDRA'S SECRET won last time out
My main worry with her is stall 11
She made all last time and won
That was a joint career besr on her numbers
But it was on sand not turf
It was in a lower grade of race than this
Her one chance may be blasting away fast

SOUTHERN BELLE comes from a 5f race
That is a warning sign but she has positives
She is an improving unexposed 4 year old

Selection

£8 Win Bet SOUTHERN BELLE 13/2

£1 Win Bet HONEYSUCKLE LIL 9/1

£1 Win Bet SANDRA'S SECRET 8/1


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