5 Races discussed

0 Staked Bet

5 Previews all of them at Ascot
I intended to cover other races
But I found nothing I liked elsewhere
These are not tracks that suit me
I'm a bit embarrassed I found nothing
Probably got my timing wrong there
It is a day of big priced selections
Not staking any of them as bets


Today's Bet

No Bet



TODAY'S MESSAGE


Gold Cup Day
The Summer Trilogy ends today
Churchill has won the Guineas
Rafa Nadal has won the Tennis
Order Of St George is the last leg
To hopefully land us the big pay off
In each way doubles and trebles
Good luck if you have played

No Outsider Previews today
That is really an abject failure

ORDER OF ST GEORGE should win
But I am not getting involved at Evens
It leaves us with only 4 other previews
Trying to find one good enough to stake

In the end I couldn't make a good enough case


Today's Best Bet

ASCOT 5.35

£2.50 Each Way MISTER MANDURO 12/1

£2.50 Each Way FIRST NATION 16/1

Obviously a lethal handicap
But Do like this staking
We need just 1 horse to place
And we can not lose any money
I like a lot of my work in the race

I could have pushed it over the line for a bet
But decided that it just failed to be safe enough

Difficult time consuming message to compile
Fails because of the lack of Non Ascot previews
Fails because of no Account Bet
Lets hope results compensate for that






WEDNESDAYS REVIEW

There were 8 Previews yesterday
These finished P L L P P W P
Not as good as Tuesday's returns
No real surprise on a harder day
The Ascot bets finished P L P P
Conservative safety first staking
HAPPY LIKE A FOOL the only loser
That was the biggest disappointment
I underestimated the winner in that race
The Non Ascot bets went L P W P
We did not have any staked bet
NEWSTART each way was the best
He ran a solid second to return stakes
He was a bit unlucky getting hampered
The stewards were never going to give it him
Ran well and went close costing us nothing
Solid enough but a distinct lack of magic






PROFILES & PREVIEWS



ASCOT 2.30

4/1 McErin, 13/2 Santry, 8/1 Havana Grey, 9/1 True Blue Moon
10/1 It Dont Come Easy, Nine Below Zero, 12/1 Frozen Angel
14/1 Cardsharp, Consequences, 16/1 Koditime, 20/1 Billy Dylan
20/1 Sioux Nation, 25/1 Rock Of Estonia, Viscount Loftus
33/1 Gift In Time, Pilkington, 66/1 New Empire
100/1 Poorauldjosephine.

The Norfolk Stakes
2 year olds over 5f
One of the weaker trends races

Usually the winner of this race
Returns a Racing Post Rating of 104-109
If you look at their numbers before the race
Recent winners had achieved these previous numbers
94 92 96 91 91 91 88 99 90 95 92 103 101 99
13 of the last 14 winners recorded at least a 90 rating

8 horses have not done that
Koditime - Rock of Estonia - Consequences have not
Gift In Time - Billy Dylan -New Empire have not
Pilkington - Viscount Loftus lack the required numbers
We can ignore then unraced Poorauldjosephine

SIOUX NATION has not been staying 6f
This drop in trip is a massive positive
But he is very exposed now with 4 runs
I'd like to avoid horses drawn on the outside
In 5f races at Ascot with 11-18 runners
Horses with under 5 career starts
The winners draws were 2 6 7 8 8 8 10 11 12 14
I would prefer a horse drawn 4-14 given a choice
SIOUX NATION is drawn 2 so just not sold on him
SANTRY has a wide draw in Stall 16
Faster ground could be a worry for him
Both his runs have come on softer ground
He has a Racing Post Rating of 90
So he just scrapes in on my required standard
There are several with bigger numbers though
And his pedigree doesn't encourage me
His sire has never had a Listed/Group winner before
MCERIN is the American Raider
Impossible to know what to expect
He was beaten last time out though
Horses beaten last time have a 1-73 record
Mixed messages about him I'm looking elsewhere
TRUE BLUE MOON is drawn 17
That could be a help but not my first choice
His breeding stats were not encouraging enough
NINE BELOW ZERO wouldn't be my first choice
Not given the draw in Stall 4
FROZEN ANGEL is rejected from Stall 3
HAVANA GREY has the best numbers
Courtesy of winning the National Stakes
He had the benefit of the best draw that day
But He could be well drawn today

CARDSHARP is very fit and very experienced
Could be a serious runner with a very recent run
The 2015 winner had the same profile
The last 3 winners ran within the last 19 days

I think the bet is 2 each way singles
HAVANA GREY and CARDSHIP
We have two of the most experienced
With the best numbers
And quite possibly among the best draws
Getting one placed would return most stakes
If high draws do have the advantage
One or both could be right there at the end

Selection

£2.50 Each Way CARDSHIP 14/1

£2.50 Each Way HAVANA GREY 9/1





ASCOT 3.05

7/2 Mirage Dancer, 9/2 Benbatl, Irishcorrespondent
8/1 Orderofthegarter, Tamleek, 12/1 Bay Of Poets, Taj Mahal
16/1 Gold Spinner, Larchmont Lad, 25/1 Rodaini, 33/1 Grey Britain
33/1 Kings Gift, Mucho Applause, Speedo Boy, 40/1 Jake's Hill
50/1 Savile Row.

The Hampton Court Stakes
This is a 3 year old Group race over 10f
17 past renewals of this race

MIRAGE DANCER stands out in 2 ways
He is the least experienced horse with 2 runs
He is the only horse with 1 run this season

Past winners had the following career starts
6 4 3 3 5 7 3 4 4 4 2 5 1 4
If we look at horses with under 3 winners
We have to go back 12 + years to find one
That doesn't tell the full story
Indigo Cat won with 2 runs in 2005
But the race was run at York that season
And Indigo Cat had 2 runs that year
The 2003 winner had only 1 career run
But that was widely acknowledged to be a fluke
It was a muddling race and not a true reflection
MIRAGE DANCER does look inexperienced
And with every other horse having more runs this year
And almost all of them havinga more recent run
MIRAGE DANCER is therefore opposed

Official Ratings show 2 horses clear

BENBATLY - Rated 113
TAJ MAHAL - Rated 113

Some of these are rated far too low
JAKES HILL and MUCHO APPLAUSE are
SAVILLE ROW - SPEEDO BOY look unlikely
GREY BRITAIN has a mountain to climb

TAJ MAHAL has 11 career starts
He may well be a bit too exposed for this race
Past winners had the following career starts
6 4 3 3 5 7 3 4 4 4 2 5 1 4
Thats 4 more runs than any previous winner

Horses that dropped from 12f races
Won 2 renewals and both winners did the same thing
They came from the Epsom Derby
TAMLEEK can not say that today
He drops from 12f and only has 3 runs
Throw in Stall 1 and he looks up against it
This is a 10f Group race
No surprise at all no winners came from 7f
LARCHMONT LAD steps up almost 3 furlongs
I would rule him out on that alone

Horses from 8f races are quite rate
Only 1 has managed it in the last 14 years
The only horses to win this from 8f races
Had under 5 career starts
Those with 5 or more doing this were 0-25
RODAINI has this 0-25 profile
KING'S GIFT also shares this 0-25 profile

BENBATL is interesting
Badly drawn 5th in the Derby
There were 2 winners from the Derby
Just 2 winners from any 12f race
Both had 6 career starts though
BENBATL only has 3 runs
My worry is handling the drop in trip
When having only 3 previous races befpre
I am not selecting him on that angle
GOLD SPINNER has plenty to find on numbers
And he is only a small horse which puts me off

BAY OF POETS ran a career best last time
That was in France in a Group 1
This is not the biggest of horses
Given he has 8 runs - more than any winners

IRISHCORRESPONDENT comes from 8f
With just 3 runs coming from a mile is fine

ORDEROFTHEGARTER has some decent runs
Career best last time out in France
And he had a troubled passage in that race
Not the biggest of horses but impeccable connections

Selection

£4 Each Way ORDEROFTHEGARTER 11/2

£1 Win Bet IRISHCORRESPONDENT 8/1

£1 Win Bet BAY OF POETS 11/1






ASCOT 3.40

5/2 Alluringly, 3/1 Mori, 5/1 Coronet, 9/1 Naughty Or Nice
10/1 Astronomy's Choice, Hertford Dancer, 16/1 Serenada
20/1 Coconut Creme, Gracious Diana, Rich Legacy
25/1 Apphia, The Sky Is Blazing.

The Ribblesdale
3yo Fillies over 12 furlongs.

ALLURINGLY is top rated on 105

The 81 rated APPHIA is rated too low
THE SKY IS BLAZING looks outclassed
Beaten in a Class 3 handicap last time

I looked at how very lightly raced horses did
Horses with under 3 runs won 5 races
3 of these were in the dim and distant pass
None of them had just 1 run that season
ASTRONOMY'S CHOICE has this problem
Just 1 run this year and 2 career starts
1 run this year could be a disadvantage

RICH LEGACY has 1 run this year
Only 2 winners in recent years did that
Last years winner was the first in 19 years
Both were lighter raced that she is
RICH LEGACY has too much to prove
GRACIOUS DIANA didn't do enough last time
We have had winners coming from heavy defeats
These were from Group 1 races though
GRACIOUS DIANA was thrashed in a Listed race

NAUGHTY OR NICE is unusual
Dropping in trip is extremely rare
Not something I would see as helpfull
Especially not with just 2 career starts
She would not be my first choice

COCONUT CREME has 3 runs and 2 this year
The 2012 winner had 3 runs and 2 this year
That winner had achieved more and won last time
With improvement she could improve and go well
SERENADA has a similar task as well
She also has 3 runs and 2 this season
The ground is a doubt and she needs to improve

CORONET was 5th in the Oaks
I don't mind her profile at all
It is her draw that worries me more
Ascot 12f races since 2011
Races only in Class 2 or higher
Horses drawn 1 have a 0-74 record
CORONET fails this 0-74 record
This is also interesting
Ascot races since 2012
7f or more in Class 2 or higher
Between 11 and 18 runners
Horses drawn 1 had a 0-85 record
CORONET has this problem

HERTFORD DANCER has 6 runs
Not sure if she has the class
I 'd have liked to see better numbers
Look at the number of runs recent winners had
3 6 4 2 3 10 6 2 4 3
There were 3 winners with 5 or more runs
They had Racing Post Ratings of 108 109 109
HERTFORD DANCER has only done a 98 rating
She is also owned by a Racing Club

MORI has 3 runs all this year
Beautifully bred impeccable connections
No surprise if she improves enough to win

ALLURINGLY was 3rd in the Oaks
She probably didn't handle the track that day
Although she was beaten at Chester
We now know she was beaten by the Oaks winner
This pair stand out and I don't like the others

Selection

Option 1

ALLURINGLY 100/30 -7/2

Each Way


Option 2

£7 Win Bet ALLURINGLY 100/30 -7/2

£3 Saver Bet MORI 9/4


My choice is Option 2






ASCOT 4.20

5/6 Order Of St George, 7/1 Big Orange, 8/1 Simple Verse
12/1 Sheikhzayedroad, 14/1 Sweet Selection, Torcedor
16/1 Quest For More, 20/1 Endless Time, Harbour Law
33/1 Nearly Caught, Prince Of Arran, She Is No Lady
40/1 Harrison, Trip To Paris.

The Blue Riband
The Ascot Gold Cup
Group 1 race over 2m 4f

ORDER OF ST GEORGE won last year
He is a horse we have been discussing
He is the last leg of our Summer trilogy
Many of you will need him for a big payout

I think you should get it
I would have liked a smaller field
But he must have magnificent claims
And you can throw some angles at the others

Stamina in the Class could be their downfall

SIMPLE VERSE is sired by Duke or Marmalade
BIG ORANGE is sired by Duke or Marmalade
Horses sired by Duke or Marmalade
Have yet to win beyond 2 miles

BIG ORANGE is no certainty to get home
Not from a sire with no winners beyond 2m
His Dam's sire had a stamina index of only 7.3f
Thats lower than all recent winners

SIMPLE VERSE isn't certain to stay
I think she should though
Her chance could be compounded by other factors
Such as being a mare
Having just 1 run this season as well
SIMPLE VERSE is a 5 year old
Since 1998 there were 3 winners aged 5
They achieved Racing Post Ratings of 124 120 130
SIMPLE VERSE only had a rating of 118
She doesn't have much fast ground form either

SWEET SELECTION is also a 5yo
His career best Racing Post Rating is only 106
That puts her miles behind recent 5yo winners
She e may not stay this far anyway
SWEET SELECTION is sired by Stimulation
Never had a winner over this far
No Pattern winners beyond 2 miles as well

ENDLESS TIME has similar problems
She is another Mare with 1 run this season
And a 5yo who has not achieved enough yet
SHE IS NO LADY has the same problems too
HARBOUR LAW didn't do enough last time
I can't see any of the rank outsiders winning
Asking a lot for NEARLY CAUGHT to win
He would probably want it softer than this

SHEIKHZAYEROAD is an 8 year old
If you remember when Yeats won as an 8yo
He was the first his age to win in 116 years
SHEIKHZAYEROAD is older than ideal
He has 89 days off which has to be a concern
TORCEDOR isn't sure to get home
He is sired by Fastnet Rock
Horses sired by Fastnet Rock
Have yet to win beyond 2 miles
Their runners in Class 5 or better
Have a 0-27 record over 1m 7f and more
Has to be one of the worst breeding profiles
TORCEDOR could be badly drawn in Stall 1
Ascot has had 18 races since 2011 over 20f
Stall 1 has a 0-18 record in these races
QUEST FOR MORE has 2 poor recent runs
There are doubts about his general well being

ORDER OF ST GEORGE may have too much
Many horses win this race more than once
As so few can cope with the class and distance
He has been here and done it last year
He had a rushed preparation as well in 2017
Had only raced 13 days before last years race
He looked like He could dominate this division
I'm hoping that he proves that today

SIMPLE VERSE may be the biggest danger
But there can only be one selection

Selection

ORDER OF ST GEORGE Evens

Win Bet





ASCOT 5.35

5/1 Atty Persse, 6/1 Sofia's Rock, 9/1 Master Singer
10/1 Tartini, 12/1 Bin Battuta, Utah, 14/1 First Nation
14/1 Homesman, Mister Manduro, 16/1 Drochaid,
16/1 Good Omen Never Surrender, Shymkent
20/1 Bear Valley, Janszoon, Oasis Charm, 25/1 Majoris
33/1 Reachforthestars, Twin Star.

12f Handicap for 3 year olds

Horses from Handicaps in Class 4 or lower
Have a 0-76 record in past renewals
REACHFORTHESTARS has this problem
SHYMKENY also has this problem as well
Every recent winner of this race
Had 2 or more runs that season
UTUH is rejected as the only horse that doesn't

You don't want a horse that is too exposed
Only 2 past winners had 8 or more career starts
Both of those ran within the last 2 weeks
SOFIA'S ROCK has this problem with 8 runs
He lacks a recent run absent 26 days
You would have to worry about Stall 20 as well
BEAR VALLEY is quite exposed
Didn't see enough I liked in him
DROCHAIRD is more exposed than ideal
Hard to be confident about him landing a hat trick

Ascot have had 54 races over 12f since 2011
None of the winners were drawn 18 or higher
ATTY PERSSE has been lumbered with Stall 22
He's only had 3 career starts as well
No horse with under 4 previous runs
Won from higher than Stall 12 since 2011
JANSZOON has exactly the same problem
Just 3 runs and Stall 21 likely to hurt him
OASIS CHARM didn't do enough last time
MAJORIS and TWIN STAR don't offer enough

HOMESMAN comes from a Group 3
Not keen on that profile at all
22 of the last 25 winners had no form in pattern class
Asking a lot for him to win with 9st 7lbs
Horses with 9st 4lbs or more
Have a 0-30 record in this race since 2002
NEVER SURRENDER has 7 runs
He is a bit exposed iwth 7 runs
Took him 6 runs in Maidens to win one
He wouldn't be my first choice
BIN BATTUTA was beaten too far last time
Further than every previous winner was
GOOD OMEN won last time out
He is more exposed than any that did that
Not keen he has previous listed class form
TARTINI has positives
With 4 runs and 3 this year
I nearly shortlisted him but didn't
Because he is a smaller narrow type
May not have much scope to improve
And he has pattern form and few winners did
MASTER SINGER won a maiden last time
Horses from Maidens have not done that well
They have a 1-34 record since 2002
Those that won that maiden were 0-28
Those from maidens over 10f or shorter were 0-24
Great stable but on that profile I can't shortlist him

Shortlist

MISTER MANDURO is coming down in trip
No past winner of this race did that
But to be fair hardly and tried
That said he will stay and has positives
6 runs and 3 this year is just about right

FIRST NATION has a nice profile
Runs this year and still open to improvement

Selection

£2.50 Each Way MISTER MANDURO 12/1

£2.50 Each Way FIRST NATION 16/1

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