10 Previews
1 Staked Bet


10 Previews
7 Flat
3 National Hunt

Soft ground causing disruption
14 mm overnight at Newbury
8 mm at Newmarket
9mm at Lingfield
Cartmel has gone soft
Raining at Market Rasen and Ripon

The Message could go two ways
Has the potential to be a classic
And the potential to do damage as well
Lets be careful out there today
Sunday Message planned tomorrow


Today's Account Bet

Split Stake Bet


Haydock 7.30

£5 Win Bet THAT IS THE SPIRIT 7/1 - 15/2

£5 Saver Bet JUNGLE CAT 6/5



That Is The Spirit 15/2 Corals Hills P.Power
That Is The Spirit 15/2 Skybet Betfair
That Is The Spirit 7/1 Generally elsewhere

The idea here in a 4 runner race
Bet the two fittest horses
That Is The Spirit is the main hope
Jungle Cat the saver







TODAY'S MESSAGE



I will start with the Super Sprint

Newbury 3.35

£4 Each Way CORINTHIA KNIGHT 9/1

£2 Saver MAGGIES ANGEL 7/2

My angles tend to get this race right
I did this preview yesterday afternoon
Corinthia Knight stood out by a mile
I was starting to get excited about him
Looked at a possible each way bet
But he drifted very badly last night
Went out to 14/1 friendless in the market
From a small stable I started to wobble
Not sure how far I should trust this bet
It is after all in a ridiculously open race
He has shortened up again in the market
The vibes do seem a lot better now
Not sure what to expect but I backed him
Mainly because my angles love the race



A Possible 11th Preview

There is a race at Gowran Park
I fancy one of the Reserve runners
Didn't bother writing this race up
As the horse probably won't run
But if he does run he is well worth a bet

Gowran Park 2.15

ALWAYS DANCING 7/2

Each Way for me
Win only if you prefer
But he looks an unlikely runner





Cartmel 1.55

STRONG RESEMBLANCE 100/30
£4 Each Way (1/4 Odds 1,2)

£2 Saver WHISPERING AFFAIR 4/1

Stakings a bit messy
6 runners and an each way bet and saver
But it is 1/4 the odds a place
Could have chosen the wrong one
But I like the issues in the race




Market Rasen 2.45

£8.50 Win Bet BLUE COMET 11/10

£1.50 Win Bet POP THE CHAMPERS 5/1

I don't fancy the saver
But I'd feel foolish if he won
Especially in a tiny field
This race is about the 2nd favourite
I hate him and question his stamina
All comes down to if that's right or not



I decided to make this today's bet


Haydock 7.30

£5 Win Bet THAT IS THE SPIRIT 7/1-15/2

£5 Saver Bet JUNGLE CAT 6/5

Preview is based on common sense
Fascinating issues in the race
A Very Fit favourite is a saver
A Very Fit outsider is the main bet
The 2nd and 3rd favourites
Hopefully will fail for fitness
Anything can happen in a tiny field
This is one very Smart bet
That could look very stupid later











FRIDAY'S REVIEW

5 preview message not without incident
Officially 5 previews finished P W L P L
There was an account bet at Newbury
AL JELLABY each way was that bet
He placed at 7/2 finishing in 3rd place
The price was better than I expected
A late drift often happens with our bets
Worth remembering in future to use firms
Who are offering Best Odds Guaranteed
AL JELLABY ran a nice enough race
There was a stall malfunction at the start
He and most others raced a few furlongs
Suddenly the false start became an issue
We had no idea how that would affect us
Or how his rivals might respond to it
It made the race a lot more random
In the end I was pleased to get third
FOXY FOREVER won at Haydock
But he was in a split stake bet
And the race had multiple non runners
Unrecognisable from the race I studied
QUAYSIDE was the frustrating preview
He annoyingly Stumbled at the start
That killed any chance he may have had
JUBEBOX JIVE won but only as a saver
I never complain about breaking level
JAIME SOMMERS lost in the last race
But I knew I had rushed that preview
And hadn't researched it well enough




PROFILES & PREVIEWS




MARKET RASEN 1.35

4/5 Mcgroarty, 9/4 Hestina, 7/1 Free One
10/1 Tred Softly, 33/1 Stun Gun, 50/1 Reivers Lodge

2m Novice Hurdle
Probably just 4 that can win this

TRED SOFTLY is a 4yo
He has no National Hunt form
Not a negative but not a good profile
Surprised if he can beat all of these
FREE ONE may not have the class
Small stable and 33/1 66/1 100/1 in 3 hurdle runs

This is an awkward one
HESTINA is a 4yo filly
More about her later
MCGROARTY has bumper form

July Novice Hurdles
Between 2m and 2m 3f
Horses from Bumpers
Running in the last 5 Months
Have a 0-59 record
MCGROARTY fails this 0-59 stat
We could easily oppose him on that angle
Especially with just 1 bumper run
But he did win last time out
And horses in that record doing that
Had a far less toxic 0-4 record
MCGROARTY is not like any winner
But he needs a lot more respect
Than a horse with a 0-59 profile deserves

HESTINA is a 4yo filly
Only 12 fillies aged 4 tried to win
There was a winner but not a close match
HESTINA is a Neutral positive to me
I'm not naturally drawn to a 4yo filly
But her last 3 Racing Post Hurdle Ratings
Show a promising 114 111 120 standard
I would rather have that on my side
Than a once raced Bumper winner

Selection

Hard to know the strength of this
Hard to know the ground
So not a race for large stakes

HESTINA 7/4

Win Bet






CARTMEL 1.55

11/10 What Happens Now, 2/1 Strong Resemblance
5/1 Whispering Affair, 14/1 Monarch's Glory, 16/1 Mathayus
50/1 All My Friends Say.

2m 6f Novice Hurdle
Looks kike 4 horses can win this
I am opposing the 1st and 4th favourites

In such a small field
Nothing can be ruled out here
WHAT HAPPENS NOW is around 11/10
I just do not want to risk an 8 year old
Who has raced just once since October 2016
Not on soft ground
My angles show no similar winners in July
He is well clear on the numbers
And he may well become the first to do it
But I am looking elsewhere at a short price
MONARCHS GLORY is opposed
Not keen he is an unraced 7 year old
Not keen he is ridden by a Teenager
Who has only won an Amateur riders bumper

Shortlist

STRONG RESEMBLANCE
WHISPERING AFFAIR

Quite a coincidence
Both are 6 year olds
Both have 2 lifetime starts
Both have 2 hurdle runs

I ran that profile in all similar races
I was expecting an unimpressive profile
But to my surprise I found winners
In July Novice Hurdles over 2m 5f -2m 6f
Horses with this exact profile were 2-5
Throw out the horses at 66/1 and more
It them becomes a W 3 W profile
Low and behold one of those winners
Won this race last season
So I pass both horses as statistically fine
And I prefer both to the favourite
Even if he has achieved more
I can only guess between them
Decided to play the race this way
STRONG RESEMBLANCE the bet
As his trainer is dominant at this track
Since 2016 twice as many winners
As any other trainer

Selection

£4 Each Way STRONG RESEMBLANCE 100/30 (1/4 Odds 1,2)

£2 Saver WHISPERING AFFAIR 4/1





RIPON 2.20

5/4 Atalanta Queen, 11/4 Placebo Effect, 9/2 Laydee Victoria,
5/1 Sixties Secret, 20/1 Abu Dhabi Doo, 33/1 Heavenly Pulse
50/1 Kathy, St Helens Gate, 66/1 Lisbon Legend.

2yo Selling race over 6f
ATALANTA QUEEN is favourite
I suspect thats because She is Top rated
Her last 3 runs have been poor
Racing Post Ratings of 34 50 37
That will not be good enough to win
I can not commit to her with those numbers
Especially when Brian Meehan trains her
She needs those first time blinkers to ignite her
SIXTIES SECRET has 2 very average runs
I don't think she has done enough

PLACEBO EFFECT is no worldbeater
But none of these are
He has reasonable recent numbers
He is no worse a risk than the favourite
LAYDEE VICTORIA is from the same stable
Doesn't need a lot of improvement
Down in distance could secure that

Selection

Small Stakes

£6 Win Bet LAYDEE VICTORIA 5/1

£4 Win Bet PLACEBO EFFECT 13/8







MARKET RASEN 2.45

10/11 Mister Showman, 7/4 Blue Comet
5/1 Pop The Champers, 20/1 Ebony Rose.

2m 4f Novice Hurdle
37 Similar races in July

Small field of just 4 runners
We have a rank outsider
EBONY ROSE has a weak profile
As a mare with a long absence

POP THE CHAMPERS is unraced
In every Novice Hurdle in July
Run over every and any distance
No unraced horse won any of them

This could well be a match

MISTER SHOWMAN is a 4 year old
BLUE COMET is a 6 year old

My problem here is stamina
Will MISTER SHOWMAN stay 2m 4f ?
His sire has a stamina index of 6.8f
The Dam's Sire a stamina index of 7.7f
The sires had just 1 hurdle winner
That was MISTER SHOWMAN over 2m

His profile is weak as well
37 Similar races in July
Horses aged 4
Score badly with a 1-29 record
That winner won in a 5 runner race
And he won last time and didn't come from 2m

July Novice Hurdles
2m 3f or more
Horses aged 4
Coming from 2m 2f or shorter
Have a 0-32 record
MISTER SHOWMAN fails this 0-32 record

July and August
Novice Hurdles over 2m 3f or more
Horses aged 4 coming from 2m 2f or shorter
Beaten last time out
Have a 1-75 record
Those with under 8 hurdle runs were 0-66
MISTER SHOWMAN shares this 0-66 profile

MISTER SHOWMAN has stamina problems
He has profile problems as well

BLUE COMET is 2 years old
He has no stamina doubts
He does not have to go up in distance
His Numbers are marginally best as well

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet BLUE COMET 11/10

£1.50 Win Bet POP THE CHAMPERS 5/1






NEWBURY 3.35

5/1 Maggies Angel, 7/1 Corinthia Knight, 10/1 Debutante's Ball
10/1 Mother Of Dragons, 12/1 Snazzy Jazzy, Time Trail, 14/1 Bengali Boys
14/1 Falabelle, Lady Anjorica, One For June, 16/1 Pursuing The Dream
16/1 Requinto Dawn, 20/1 Connery, 25/1 Declarationoflove, Hello Girl
33/1 Inviolable Spirit, 33/1 Lynn's Memory, 33/1 Danehill Desert
33/1 Onefootinparadise, Swing Out Sister, Three Little Birds, Zalshah
40/1 Lexington Grace, 50/1 Glaceon, Holdenhurst.

The Super Sprint
2 year olds over 5f
Most years my angles get it right
A brilliant record of shortlisting the winner
Last year we shortlisted the 1st 3rd 6th 8th

No past winner had 6 or more runs
No past winner came from Nursery's
No winners came from maidens with 3 + runs

Most winners had at least Class 3 form
Avoid those that do not if the following applies
They must be avoided if having 3 + runs
They must be avoided if Male
They must be avoided if Losing last time
They must be avoided if dropping in distance

Since 2003 horses with 4 + career starts
Running in the last 4 weeks
Have a 0-110 record in this race
No winner was beaten 10 + lengths over 5f last time
Horses with 4 + previous runs need pattern form
Horses with 4 or more runs
Coming from Class 2 or lower
Have a 0-137 record in all renewals

MAGGIES ANGEL falls down on one angle
Coming from a 6f race may not be ideal anyway
Since 2006 horses from 6f races
Had a 0-87 record trying to win this

The Shortlist so far is this

DEBUTANTS BALL 10/1 - CORINTHIA KNIGHT 9/1
REQUINTO DAWN 20/1 - DECLARATIONOFLOVE 25/1
INVIOLABLE SPIRIT 33/1 -TIME TRAIL 14/1
MOTHER OF DRAGONS 10/1

My angles believe one of the above will win
We have to narrow it down
And I am doing that on the Draw

I am against the very high draws
Newbury 5f races since 2003
Any time of year
Horses drawn 19 or more
Have a 0-67 record

TIME TRAIL is drawn 23
DEBUTANTS BALL is drawn 20
REQUINTO DAWN is drawn 19
She also has the longest absence in the race
INVIOLABLE SPIRIT has average numbers
His 57 day absence bothers me
That is the longest absence of any past winner
Who had more than 1 previous race before

Shortlist

DECLARATIONOFLOVE 25/1
CORINTHIA KNIGHT 9/1
MOTHER OF DRAGONS 10/1

All have reasonably similar profiles
All 3 of them come from Royal Ascot
The last and final Clue I can find
Is last time out starting prices
MOTHER OF DRAGONS was 100/1 last time
DECLARATIONOFLOVE was 66/1 last time
Statistically that undermines their chances

Best Profile

Horses from Royal Ascot
Running 29-32 days ago
Running over 5f last time
Starting under 40/1 last time
Between 3-4-5 career starts
Beaten under 20 lengths at Ascot
Starting under 33/1 in this race
38 horses ran in this race with the above profile
10 of them won which seems incredible
The winners in the following years had this profile
1997 1998 2000 2001 2004 2006 2009 2011 2014 2015
Last year only 1 had this profile and finished 3rd
CORINTHIA KNIGHT has this profile
It is the outstanding one in the race

MAGGIES ANGEL the favourite is a saver
Why is that justifiable ?
Well if I run some sire stats
Sires who have bred 5f winners
On Softer ground
In Class 3 or higher
The best sire in the race by a mile
Is Dark Angel with a 6-30 (20%) strike rate

CORINTHIA KNIGHT'S sire
Has not had a winner under those circumstances

Selection

£4 Each Way CORINTHIA KNIGHT 8/1

£2 Win Bet MAGGIES ANGEL 7/2







NEWBURY 4.10

7/4 Ghayadh, 4/1 Alkhalifa, 9/2 Oliver Reed
11/2 Helvetian, 9/1 Usher, 14/1 Bullingdon
16/1 Global Academy, 16/1 City Gent, 25/1 Mountain Peak
33/1 Salsa Verde, 100/1 Manco Inca.

2yo Novice over 6f for male horses
4 horses dominate this race

GHAYADH sets the standard
1 run over 5f and he won that
Profile wise there is a doubt here
In similar races horses from 5f
Who have 1 career start
Have a 0-26 record in these races
Not a negative but not a safe profile
GLOBAL ACADEMY has the same problem

HELVETIAN looks vulnerable
I don't think he will stay on debut
Because of this and the favourites profile
An each way bet looks promising
As for HELVETIAN he is ignored
And I'd oppose him in any match bets

ALKHALIFA certainly fits the bill
Apart from his unacceptable trainer
I can not trust or read Brian Meehan
Most under performing stable out there
Even saving on his horses is repulsive

OLIVER REED is the other option
Much safer stable but his first run was poor
His Racing Post Rating of 55 was dismal
He will need 2 stone improvement to win this
He did start favourite last time though
Suggesting much better can be expected
In the end I played it this way

Selection

£4 Each Way OLIVER REED 9/2

£2 Win Bet ALKHALIFA 4/1








RIPON 5.15

9/4 Roar, 4/1 Starplex, 9/2 Indy
8/1 Tamayuz Magic, 16/1 The Twisler, 20/1 Parole
20/1 Foresee

This is a 12f Handicap

INDY may not stay 12f
When he ran at Leicester over 10f
I opposed him on stamina ground
This is further and the trip should beat him
PAROLE is underraced
With just 1 run in 2 years he is out
FORESEE hasn't achieved enough
STARPLEX is a 7yo with 10 career starts
He is unorthodox because of that
No horse as old as him won with so few runs
Winning a flat maiden is hardly orthadox
I think his last run flattered him anyway
Some of his opponents disappointed last time
The favourite didn't cope on the ground
He benefited from a tactically run race
THE TWISLER has a 170 day absence
Not a negative but wouldn't be my first choice
Because he is very exposed with 24 runs
TAMAYUZ MAGIC has topweight
Has yet yet to reach form and fitness this year

I was going with Ya Jameel
But he is now a non runner
The saver now becomes the selection
ROAR is a 3yo who won last time

Selection

Small Stakes

ROAR 2/1

Win Bet





HAYDOCK 5.55

7/2 Rose Marmara, 4/1 Savannah Beau, 6/1 Spirit Of Rosanna,
7/1 Rose Eclair, 12/1 Bay Station, Glyder, 14/1 Kachess,
16/1 Hot Hannah, Oriental Lilly, 25/1 Teepee Time
33/1 Ayresome Angel.


5f Handicap for fillies
Only 10 similar races in July
The 10 winners had the same profile

They all ran within 19 days
They came from 6f or shorter
They were beaten under 5 lengths last time

Good recent runs the key to this race
SPIRIT OF ROSANNA has 42 days off
That may put her at a disadvantage
I don't want KACHESS down from 7f

Only 5 horses looked shortlistable

SAVANNAH BEAU - GLYDER - BAY STATION
ROSE ECLAIR - ROSE MARMARA

GLYDER didn't appeal as a 3yo drawn 1
BAY STATION didn't offer quite enough
SAVANNAH BEAU has a chance

ROSE ECLAIR interested me
She was 3rd in this race last season
She was a 3yo then beaten only a length
She has less weight and a lower mark this year
Nicely weighted she is up to this class
ROSE MARMARA is also interesting
She has been shaping well in better races

Be careful not to mix the names up
Not that it matters too much in this case
Both horses have claims to being the bet

Selection

Small Stakes

£4 Each Way Bet ROSE ECLAIR 5/1

£2 Win Bet ROSE MARMARA 5/1







HAYDOCK 7.00

15/8 Wasim, 7/2 Knight In Armour, 4/1 Al Barg
5/1 Veejay, 6/1 Floreat Floreat, 14/1 Prediction
33/1 Stockings Lane, 50/1 Hic Bibi.

2yo Novice over 7f

There are probably 5 with chances here
Two of these share the same sire
WASIM is sired by Acclamation
AL BARG is sired by Acclamation

Not my favourite sire for this sort of teat
For lightly raced juveniles over 7f
The slower the ground the worse they are
AL BARG is unraced and easy to overlook
I am not convinced with WASIM either
did well to win on his debut over 6.5f
But he was only a 33/1 chance that day
This race takes 11 seconds longer to run
That and his penalty could find him out

FLOREAT FLOREAT is unraced
Can't rule him out for a significant stable
Stable won this last year with a debutant

VEEJAY has 1 run and 1 win
Did well at Salisbury in a 6 runner race
Started 25/1 though and stable 2nd string
Could easily pop up and shortlistable
But I prefer the horse with 2 runs

KNIGHT IN ARMOUR
He has 2 runs and the most experienced
Whilst neither of his runs scored big numbers
I think he went off too fast at Chester
That run may be best upgraded because of that

Selection

KNIGHT IN ARMOUR 100/30

Each Way






HAYDOCK 7.30

11/8 Jungle Cat, 9/4 Ibn Malik,
3/1 Crazy Horse 10/1 That Is The Spirit


7f Conditions race
Not in my comfort zone here
But hard to ignore the obvious here

Past winners had the following runs that year
6 3 5 4 3 3 4 2 4
They were all well raced that calendar year

IBN MALIK has raced once in 371 days
He is not like any past winner because of it

CRAZY HORSE has 112 days off the track
He has raced only the once in 239 days

Both look potentially underraced this season
JUNGLE CAT in contrast is far from it
He ran 7 days ago his 2nd run this month
He has raced 7 times this calendar year
JUNGLE CAT is surely the fittest horse

CRAZY HORSE looks potentially very smart
Gelding him could be the key to him
But he is inexperienced with an absence
This could easily be a prep race as well
And I am staying with the fitter horses

It may pay to save on the 2nd fittest horse
THAT IS THE SPIRIT has recent runs
He is the 2nd fittest horse in the race
A race that offers offer 2 genuinely fit horses

I think we should save on the favourite
And go with the bigger priced horse
Just not sure how far I can trust the favourite
JUNGLE CAT had a hard race 7 days ago
And will he be effective in a small field
JUNGLE CAT wins came in fields of 12 15 16
That could upset him a bit today
But his fitness makes him a magnificent saver


Selection

£5 Win Bet JUNGLE CAT 6/5

£5 Win Bet THAT IS THE SPIRIT 7/1-15/2

****************************************************
****************************************************