7 Previews
1 Account Bet


5 meetings
7 previews
Quiet schedule for a Saturday
The message lacks a bit of depth
Only 2 of the 7 races made the cut
There is an account bet from them
This runs on the sand tonight
It is a bet based around fitness
Sunday message tomorrow


Today's Bet

Wolverhampton 5.40

DAVID'S BEAUTY 7/2 - 4/1

Each Way

4/1 PPower VC Betfair
7/2 Generally



Today's Message

7 Previews
2 Highlighted bets

I like the following 2 bets
Only these races interest me
5 meetings on a Saturday is rare
Not as much choice as usual
I'd defend these 2 selections
The rest of them more speculative



Catterick 4.45

£7 Win Bet MUKHAYYAM 6/1

£3 Saver Bet JE SUIS CHARLIE 5/2

There are certain races
With a clear choice on paper
Without knowing how he will run
Mukhayyam is one of those bets
I think he will outclass this field
But 2 poor runs in a row against him
Wasn't sure whether to go each way
Instead i went for a win bet and saver
If he runs his best Mukhayyam will win



Wolverhampton 5.40

DAVID'S BEAUTY 4/1

Each Way

Poor horse in a poor race
Reliability an importnat issue
But this is a simple fitness bet
He has raced twice this Month
None of his opposition tonight
Have raced at all during September
He has a recent race unlike the others
And I feel he is the fittest horse
And that will be a big advantage
I'm expecting that is enough to win
And assuming for at least a place


Fridays Review

Only 2 Previews yesterday
I needed to restrict the previews
Both were very interesting races
My Best bet nicked a bit of profit
CHAMPARISI won as a £3.50 saver
We got a very good negative beaten
I thought it was just a 2 horse race
CHAMPARISI had the best profile
But I relegated him to just a saver
His trainer had never trainer a winner
With a horse aged 2 or 3 years old
That statistic did put me off him a bit
Still the bet was well worth a try
The saver returned 4/1 in the end
So anyone getting that made money
My other preview was just beaten
We backed the 2nd and 3rd horses
The hot favourite failed a 20 year stat
We tied to capitalise on that angle
But Waiting For Richie 25/1 beat us
What pleased me about yesterday
We opposed two favourites
Both were short prices
Both of them failed serious statistics
Both of them also finished unplaced
That was good work on a quiet day


PROFILES & PREVIEWS



NEWBURY 1.45

6/4 Emaraaty, 5/1 Capital Flight, Magnificent,
7/1 Ateem, Baritone, 12/1 Epic Fantasy,
20/1 Brother Ralph, 25/1 Diocles Of Rome,
25/1 Harry Callahan, 33/1 Icart Point, Tour De Paris,
33/1 Valentino Dancer, 50/1 Matewan, Sapper,
100/1 Foxangel, Sugar Plum Fairy.

7f Maiden for 2 year olds
Odds on hotpot is the headline act
I suppose it was inevitable
EMARAATY was always going to be short
Well backed the moment prices were out
Massive eye catcher last time
I opposed him last time
Because of a 0-91 draw stat he failed
No unraced high draw won at Sandown
Some paddock observers said he was fat
Most people me included expect a win here
But he is short at 4/6 against decent horses
I am going with a split stake bet instead
ATEEM to place and EMARAATY to win
I feel I can get both horses in the frame
BARITONE is an unraced M. Stoute horse
These horses can often need the experience
CAPITAL FLIGHT lacks improvement
He was said to be very fit on his debut
Regressed on Racing Post Ratings next time
Leaves me questioning any improvement
We are then getting into the outsiders
ATEEM has ran 3 times and has experience
A lengthy type who hated Chester last time
Racing Post say " likely to find a few too good"
He may find one or two too good but not a few
I wouldn't put many in front of him
I want to split stake this

Selection

At the prices
You may feel this isn't worth bothering with

£7 Win Bet EMARAATY4/7

£3 Place Bet ATEEM 9/4






NEWBURY 2.50

11/4 Invincible Army, 7/2 Enjazaat, James Garfield,
6/1 Nebo, 7/1 Lansky, 14/1 Staxton, 16/1 Grand Koonta,
20/1 No I'm Easy, 33/1 Helvetian, Rebel Streak.

Mill Reef Stakes
2yo Group race over 6f

This year I am a bit confused where to go
The shortest 4 horses in the race
All come from second division trainers
Who I wouldn't rely on in a Group race
JAMES GARFIELD's trainer is an example
He has never trained a Group race winner
INVINCIBLE ARMY's trained has a weak record
His Group race runners are only 1-53
Not quite sure how you split them anyway

I'm going in a different direction this year
GRAND KOONTA has the longest absence
Normally that would put me off a bet
But in certain races like this it's a positive
Suggests a horse has been laid out for a race
Allows time for a horse to make improvement
In this race it has not been a problem
As the following profile illustrates

Mill Reef Stakes
Horses absent over 8 weeks
Coming from Class 3 or higher
Beaten under 10 lengths last time
Horses in this race with this profile
Had an excellent 5-8 profile
They finished W 3 W W 2 6 W W
GRAND KOONTA shares this profile
So did last years winner as well
It probably won't work again this year
But this horse is a 16/1 chance
He is arguably from the best stable
So a bet on him has some logic to it

Selection

Small Stakes

GRAND KOONTA 16/1

Each Way






NEWMARKET 3.45

5/4 Magic Lily, 15/8 Mystic Meg,
11/2 Trump Alexander, 10/1 Heather Lark,
20/1 India, 25/1 Bob's Girl, Consolida,
25/1 Dance To Paris, 66/1 Speed Craft.

2yo Novice for fillies over 8f
These races are rare
The market suggests 4 horses

MAGIC LILY is unraced
MYSTIC MEG is unraced
HEATHER LARK is unraced

TRUMP ALEXANDER
The only 1 of the big 4 runners
Who has raced before
My submission is that helps her
At least enough to get placed here

TRUMP ALEXANDER is sired by Iffraaj
I have problem believeing on her debut
She stayed 8f on softer ground
At a track like Ascot without a run
No horse sired by Iffraaj
Has won on their debut
Over 8f when the ground was softer
That tells me we may see improvement
On better ground with a run behind her
I am hoping will secure at least a place
And the possibility of a win as well
Given her 3 main dangers are unraced

Selection

TRUMP ALEXANDER 5/1

Each Way





NEWBURY 4.00

9/2 Take Cover, 5/1 Cotai Glory, 11/2 Muthmir,
6/1 Waady, 10/1 Priceless, 12/1 Caspian Prince,
12/1 Encore D'Or, Judicial, 14/1 Hit The Bid, Mirza,
20/1 Goldream, 25/1 Thesme, 33/1 Go On Go On Go On,
33/1 Line Of Reason, 50/1 Rosie Briar,
66/1 Abstraction, Just Glamorous.

Group 3 race over 5f
On last time out Racing Post Ratings
TAKE COVER is comfortably clear
If I chose that route he'd be the bet
But the problem with him is he is 10
Horses aged 10 do not win these races

Go back 20 years to 1997
5f Patttern races
Horses aged 10 or more
Had a 4-66 record
All 4 winners came in Listed races
One of them TAKE COVER last time out
But strip out the Listed races
Look at 5f Group 1-2-3 races
Horses aged 10 or more
Have a 0-32 record since 1997
Thats any time of year in 20 years
Even if you take 5f and 6f races
You have to go back to 2002 (Tedburrow)
To find any 10yo Group winner at 5f
TAKE COVER has this problem
Despite the best last time out run
I can not support him as a 10yo
MIRZA is opposed for the same reason

COTAI GLORY won this last year
We backed him in this race last season
This year I am leaving him alone from Stall 1
Go back to 1999
Newbury 5f races
11 or more runners
Horses drawn 1 had a poor record
The oNly winners lightly raced 2 year olds
Horses with 4 or more career starts
Drawn 1 in these races have a 0-53 record
COTAI GLORY has a bad draw this year

WAADY is interesting
Stall 2 may not be one of the better stalls
Look at the last 20 renewals of this race
Horses drawn 1 or 2 have a 0-40 record
Thats my issue with WAADY drawn 2
No horse won this drawn 15 + since 1997
LINE OF REASON is rejected drawn 17
PRICELESS is drawn 16 which is a bit high

GOLDREAM is an 8yo
With 1 run in 64 days and drawn 15
I don't see enough positives
THESME looks out of her depth

No 3 year old has won this with a break
The longest absent 3yo had 30 days off
HIT THE BID is 3 and has 70 days absence

MUTHMIR is a 7 year old
His problem may be 77 days off
No horse aged 6 or more
Has won this absent more than 8 weeks

CASPIAN PRINCE is an 8yo
Can't rule him out but not an ideal age
Only 1 of the last 20 winners was as old

JUDICIAL has 48 days off
I would give him a good chance
His best 4 Racing Post Ratings
Come in small fields of 9 3 5 7 runners
Worries me he looks best in a small field
But he has a perfect draw to compensate
And he has decent numbers in bigger fields

ENCORE D'OR is shortlisted
He won the Scarborough Stakes last time
It is a good trial and only 10 days ago


Selection

£2.50 Each Way JUDICIAL 12/1

£2.50 Each Way ENCORE D'OR 16/1





CATTERICK 4.45

7/2 Wotabreeze, 4/1 Mukhayyam,
9/2 Je Suis Charlie, 5/1 Monaco Rose,
7/1 Airton, 8/1 Mr Sundowner
10/1 Sellingallthetime, 14/1 Midnight Warrior

12f Handicap
Officially this is a Class 2 handicap
It looks a bit weaker than that though
That could be worth bearing in mind

WOTABREEZE comes from a Class 6 race
MR SUNDOWNER comes from a Class 6
MIDNIGHT WARRIOR comes from Class 6

8 runners and I like the frame of this
These 3 horses are the bottom weights
They are all going up 4 grades in class

We have MUKHAYYAM as the topweight
He is a 92 rated horse facing a 0-80 field
MUKHAYYAM is clearly the class horse

I want to take on the Class 6 horses
This is the reason why

Class 2 Handicaps since 2007
Any Distance
Any time of Year
Horses aged 4 or more
Coming from Class 6 or lower
Have a 0-61 record since 2007
MIDNIGHT WARRIOR fails this 0-61 stat
MR SUNDOWNER also fails it as well
WOTABREEZE also fails it

WOTABREEZE won a 65 here last time
This is a far stronger field than that
If we look at September and October
12f Handicaps in Class 2 and Class 3
No winners came from Class 6 races

AIRTON is a 4yo with 18 runs
54 Similar races
Male horses aged 4
17 or more career starts
Have a 0-34 record in these races
Those with 14 or more runs
All had more recent runs than him
AIRTON has an average profile
He has a career high mark
In a class he has never raced in before

We know male horses aged 4
Have not won with over 16 runs
MONACO ROSE is a 4yo filly with 20 runs
All horses aged 4
17 or more career starts
Have a very average 1-36 record
That winner did better than her last time
Don't see enough I like
From a filly 0-12 above Class 5 races
SELLINGALLTHETIME needs a career best
He has all his wins in Class 4 or lower
This is 2 grades higher

MUKHAYYAM is the class horse
Love the fact he is 92 rated
Taking on a 0-80 class field
He was well beaten last time out
But no surprised sired by Dark Angel
That 14f on Heavy was too much for him
He may have gone off too fast as well
I made him a negative last time out
On Breeding stats and failing a 0-78 angle

JE SUIS CHARLIE is the only 3yo
I see that as an advantage
He comes here after a career best
Looks a sensible saver to me

Selection

£7 Win Bet MUKHAYYAM 6/1

£3 Saver Bet JE SUIS CHARLIE 5/2








WOLVERHAMPTON 5.40

4/1 David's Beauty, 5/1 Swendab,
5/1 Toni's A Star, 6/1 Lady Joanna Vassa,
8/1 Staffa, 12/1 Digital Revolution, Elusivity,
14/1 Tasaaboq, 16/1 Kodiac Pearl
20/1 Roy's Legacy.

5f Handicap

Dreadful quality 0-55 rated
Some things I look for in these races
Recent run ideally recent runs
Reasonably good numbers last time
Much as none of these are much good

The obvious conclusion I've come to
Is that whilst it doesn't guarantee victory
DAVID'S BEAUTY is the fittest horse here
Look at horses absences

DAVID'S BEAUTY ran 6 days ago
His rivals are absent the following days
35 26 23 23 27 30 143 26 47

The shortest absence from any of his rivals
Is over 3 weeks ago which could be important

Races in September

DAVID'S BEAUTY 2
Every other horse 0

That is the telling stat for me

DAVID'S BEAUTY has a big fitness edge
He is running well at this kind of level
He has the best draw as well
The last 3 winners of similar races here
Were drawn 1 2 1 and Stall 1 is the best
I don't see why he shouldn't deal with these

KODIA OPEARL looks too inexperienced
TASAABOQ has 143 days absence
That's longer than any similar winner
DIGITAL REVOLUTION could improve
He is a lightly raced 3yo
But his numbers are very low right now
ELUSIVITY doesn't have a safe profile
Not down from 7f to 5f and as a 9 year old
LADY JOANNA VASSA doesnt offer much
Stall 10 can't help her either
SWENDAB is a 9 year old
He has a 0-20 record at this track
ROYS LEGACY is out of form
TONI'S A STAR is a mare absent 47 days
Thats longer than any mare won from
Despite that she is one of my dangers
STAFFA another filly with an absence
There may be one or two that I misread
Horses that can beat my selection
But with this in built fitness advantage
I'm betting 3 horses do not beat him

Selection

DAVID'S BEAUTY 9/2

Each Way






CATTERICK 5.55

5/2 Carlovian, 7/2 Bernie's Boy, 9/2 Bold Spirit,
7/1 Tanawar, 8/1 Regal Decree, 16/1 Jack Nevison,
20/1 Chickenfortea, 20/1 Ginger Love,
25/1 Be Bold, 33/1 Lukoutoldmakezebak
33/1 Rebel Flame

7f Handicap
0-67 rated horses

BERNIES BOY is topweight
He faces a 0-63 class field
What I like most about him
Is last time out Racing Post Ratings
BERNIES BOY is some way clear
The problem though is a 59 day absence
If he had a recent run he'd be the bet
But in all similar races
Male 4 year olds with over 15 runs
Absent 6 weeks or more
Return a 0-15 record
Not a strong statistic in itself
But no winners were like him
And he is absent over twice as long
As almost every other horse in the race

CHICKENFORTEA is not like a winner
No 3yo won coming from 5f like him

TANAWAR is 6 and up in distance
BOLD SPIRIT is is 6 and up in distance
Male horses aged 6 or more
Coming from 6f races
In the previous 3 weeks
Have a very modest 1-60 record
Neither horse has a good profile

REBEL FLAME looks unfit

JACK NEVISON is in with a chance
3 runs ago he upgraded stables
All his previous form was 5f and 6f
His new stable have raced him over a mile
He is now down to 7 furlongs
He has never raced at 7f before
If that suits he could go well

REGAL DECREE is a 3yo
Not running big enough numbers
GINGER LOVE is not running well enough
LUKOUTOLDMAKEZEBAK is outclassed

CARLOVIAN is shortlisted
Male horses aged 4
Over 20 career starts
Coming from 8f
Running within 6 weeks
Beaten last time
Not by more than 7 lengths
Return a promising 4-9 record
CARLOVIAN shares this 4-9 profile
That profile flatters him
As none of the winners with 20 + runs
Had as many as CARLOVIAN does
But it is good enough to shortlist

BE BOLD could be interestintg
As a 5yo from 6f his profile is ok
Not quite sure if this 7f trip suits well
But he has some decent back class
At the start of last year he was rated 79
Now only 60 he looks well handicapped
And he has won twice since last year
He has some decent 7f numbers as well
Big enough to suggest he stays 7f well
BE BOLD was badly drawn last time

Selection

Small Stakes

£3.00 Win Bet JACK NEVISON 20/1

£3.00 Win Bet BE BOLD 12/1

£2.00 Win Bet CARLOVIAN 5/1

£2.00 Win Bet BERNIES BOY 7/2

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