7 Races discussed
1 Staked Bet

Originally I planned a short message
I only intended to do the Redcar 2.30
And have a chat about some things

In the end I just couldn't leave it alone
Started meddling into a few other places
Kept picking away and covered 7 races
Results will show if that was worth it



Today's Bet

Win Bet + 2 Savers

Wolverhampton 8.10

£7.50 Win Bet MASTERSON 2/1

£1.25 Win Bet ZAKATAL 6/1

£1.25 Win Bet GABRIALS STAR 6/1




TODAY'S MESSAGE

I usually don't cover this Tuesday
The only reason I am doing this week
Is I can not do a Sunday message this week
I have to go away Saturday night
I've lost a power play with the Duchess
So there will be No Message on Sunday
I will have done 12 days in a row by then


Highlighted Horses

At the moment I feel like I should
highlight everything as I'm reading
things very well. I feel like I might
be running out of petrol very soon.
That's the time mistakes get made.

I like all my previews
I wouldn't put you off any of them
Going to stake one race


Wolverhampton 8.10

£7.50 Win Bet MASTERSON 2/1

£1.25 Win Bet ZAKATAL 6/1

£1.25 Win Bet GABRIALS STAR 6/1


The staking feels a bit strange
To stake 3 horses in a 5 runner race
My Ego and Pride leave me embarrassed

But look at it purely on the Maths
It creates a win bet in a 3 horse race
A fit and healthy MASTERSON
Against 2 older fillies very short of runs
We get 5/4 about MASTERSON
Cash back if the two savers win





MONDAYS REVIEW

Bank holiday messages always unpredictable
Because of that and the prices of selections
I think the message over performed
It did a little better than I was expecting
Overall results finished W L P L P P P W L
The Account bet was a decent winner
EVERGATE was simply fitter than the rest
I was a bit worried when a saver didn't run
We seemed to lose some cover but he still win
CHATBURN got us off to an excellent start
Well staked and well researched I liked that
I can reveal that I completely missed that bet
I was cooking something and lost track of time
ZABALETASWANSONG managed just 2nd
Ran well just found one too good for him
MONSIEUR JIMMY ran very well each way
Just beaten by a horse I didn't fancy
That was the case with Joe's Spirit as well
No selection I pushed you to place lay him
He won and that was painfully embarrassing
PASSING STAR won returning our stakes
We managed to shortlist the 1st 2nd and 3rd
SIR JACK (Saver) beat POWERED (Selection)
That was an accurate race we didn't lose on
ROMAN DE BRUT E/Way was a potential bet
He finished placed so content not to lose
EVERGATE won and I think we deserved that
THE LOCK MASTER lost in the last preview
That didn't spoil what was a pretty good day





PROFILES & PREVIEWS



LEICESTER 1.50

Evs Westerland, 9/2 Match Maker, Moakkad
7/1 George, 8/1 Rhosneigr, 14/1 Hey Gaman
20/1 Vice Marshal, 25/1 Admiral Spice, Fighting Irish
66/1 City Guest.

6F Maiden
I did say after he was 2nd last time
WESTERLAND would win next time out
I think he probably will
GEORGE was a neck behind him
So he needs respect as well
But the favourite looks a better horse
GEORGE was flattered last time
Think he placed as others did not stay
The market suggests HEY GAMAN is fancied
One option is this
£5 Win WESTERLAND 10/11
£5 Place HEY GAMAN 4/6
Seems very logical if you like safety
Comes down to how you like to bet
WESTERLAND ought to be too good

Selection

WESTERLAND 4/5

Win Bet







REDCAR 2.30

4/1 Dirty Randy, 5/1 Nothing Compares, 6/1 Katmandoo
6/1 Tenby Two, 7/1 Curtsy, Sheriff Garrett, 12/1 Full Tilt Lad
14/1 Bodacious Name, New Society, Silver Gleam
20/1 General Allenby, 33/1 Mystic Maeve.

This is a 3yo Maiden Handicap over 14f
Redcar has 21 renewals of this race
It's the only race of its kind in May and June

If I could Hand Pick a perfect profile
It would go something like this
Plenty of experience
Recent run
12f or more last time
Several runs this season
Good stable

You can never get what you want in these races
There are simply not enough of them
But I do see a few of my ideal attributes
Shared amongst the following horses

NOTHING COMPARES
CURTSY
SHERIFF GARRETT

The first horse backed in this race last night
Was FULL TILT LAD who I find hard to like
I don't want a horse that comes from a 7f race

This is a very interesting statistic
Past renewals of this race since 1999
Horses coming from 1m 2f or shorter
Running this season
Have a 0-88 record
That stat has lasted 19 years now
All 88 from 10f or shorter were beaten

FULL TILT LAD fails this statistic
His sires runners over 13f and more are 0-24
MYSTIC MAEVE comes from a 10f race
She has an unacceptable absence anyway
KATMANDOO comes from a 10f race
He fails the 0-88 statistic and has topweight
He's hardly done enough to justify that

TENBY TOO comes from 10f race
She is a filly and fails that 0-88 statistic
I think Stall 12 might be a disadvantage
Since 2009 Redcar races over this distance
Horses drawn 12 or higher
Who had under 10 career starts
Had a 0-39 record in the last 8 years
The whole package is not enough

Past winners of this had the following absences
38 202 14 14 7 20 14 20 21 27
26 18 13 25 18 18 18 18 25 15 15
You clearly want a run within 6 weeks
Horses absent longer than 38 days are 1-44
BODACIOUS NAME has a 197 day absence
Already quite exposed that absence is too long
His sire has not even bred a 10f winner yet

SILVER GLEAM is a bit short of positives
Not keen she is a filly with just 1 run this season
From a trainer with a modest strike rate
From a sire yet to have a winner beyond 12f
The bottom line is there are several safer options
NEW SOCIETY has 50/1 in a maiden last time
Just 3 runs leaves him too short of positives
GENERAL ALLENBY has positives
12f last time and 2 runs this season
But his numbers are worryingly low
His trainer inexperienced
And he has not achieved enough yet

Shortlist

DIRTY RANDY has a 44 day absence
He'd be the second longest absent winner
With just 1 run this season he may be underrraced
That said on his last run
It was probably the best performance of any of then
I made him a saver at Southwell that day


NOTHING COMPARES is a positive
I like that he ran over 12f last time
I like his experience and recent run
Her dam won the 2m race at Royal Ascot
Has to be one of the stronger options
Has blotted her copybook more than once

CURTSY has a lot of positives
12f last time and two runs this season
Strong Stable and outstanding sire
I have to see her as a potential winner

SHERIFF GARRETT is also a positive
The only horse from a 14f race
That is a fantastic box to have ticked
I would happily shortlist him

Selection

Option 1 - The Saver route

£7.00 Win Bet CURTSY 6/1
£1.00 Win Bet DIRTY RANDY 7/1
£1.00 Win Bet SHERIFF GARRETT 8/1
£1.00 Win Bet NOTHING COMPARES 11/1

Option 2 - The Each Way route

CURTSY 6/1

Each Way

No strong view
I will go with Option 2 the each way bet






LEICESTER 2.50

3/1 Black Bubba, 7/2 Rag Tatter, 9/2 Cookie's Star
11/2 Stevie Brown, 7/1 Allegheny Bay, Jet Setter
10/1 Kings Academy, 33/1 Trust The Indian
50/1 She's Rosanna.

3yo Claimer over 7f
This should be right up my street
But not that many similar races

BLACK BUBBA is not my choice
In record multiple times about his stamina
I don't believe he stays 7f
COOKIE'S STAR drops from 12f to 7f
Win lose or draw that is just unacceptable

Finding an alternative isn't easy
21 similar races
Horses absent over a month are 0-50
JET SETTER has this problem
Also has to go up in distance

ALLEGHENY BAY - Can't rule him out
Not a stable I like to rely on though

RAG TATTER - Lots to like
But you have to argue his last run
Raised more questions about his stamina

STEVIE BROWN - Hard to read. Saver Option

KINGS ACADEMY- Must be a player
Not keen he is up in trip but strong positives
Numbers good. Must be in any staking plan

Selection

£3.50 Each Way KING'S ACADEMY 7/1
£1.50 RAG TATTER 5/1
£1.50 STEVIE BROWN 8/1





NEWTON ABBOT 5.50

6/4 Whatzdjazz, 7/4 Katy P, 9/2 Strangsmill
9/2 10/1 Foxy Act, 14/1 Lady Jameson
50/1 Mole Trap, Njorls Saga.

Complicated Mares race
Whatzdjazz is the problem
I can pain her profile as awful
But if I add in her positives it improves
I just prefer the more experienced horse
Not a strong bet but I'd stake it this way

£8.00 Win KATY P 13/8
£2 Win STRANGSMILL 5/1




NEWTON ABBOT 6.20

11/8 2 Braqueur D'Or
6/1 Sweettoothtommy, 6/1 Calin Du Brizais
10/1 Chinatown Boy, Steel Native
14/1 The Wexfordian, 16/1 Bennys Girl
25/1 Academy General.

3m 2f Novice Handicap Chase
I started off wanting to bet Days Of Roses
He is now a non runner
Now he is out my negatives still apply
And I felt it was still an interesting race
But for different reasons

BRAQUEUR D'OR is short at 11/8
Not the safest or profiles
He has never jumped a fence before
He also has just 1 run in 6 months

I looked at all similar long distance chasers
Occasionally a Chase debutant has won
But none with 1 run in several months (0-24)
Throw in topweight as well and he looks unsafe

STEEL NATIVE is a Chase debutant
On Paper he is safer but he is still a debutant
His trainer has trained 2 Chase debutants
To win in Novice Handicaps which is interesting

SWEETTOOTHTOMMY is hard to read
Big stable and I think that has shortened his price
He has not done much so far over fences
His last 2 runs were heavy defeats
If he was from a smaller yard he'd be bigger
But he can fit in cheaply as a saver

CALIN DU BRIZAIS has a respectable chance
But his sires runners over 3m 1f + are 0-16
He has a lot of weight considering that doubt

THE WEXFORDIAN has just moved yards
Second run for Martin Hill
I don't see that as a bad move
I like his numbers and consistency

Selection

£4.00 Each WayTHE WEXFORDIAN 7/1
£1 Win Bet STEEL NATIVE 8/1
£1 Win Bet SWEETTOOTHTOMMY 7/1





WOLVERHAMPTON 7.10

5/4 Dhalam, 11/2 Karijini, 7/1 Blazed
12/1 Narjes, Natajack, 14/1 Plutonian, 16/1 Tamih
33/1 Wolfcatcherjack, 50/1 Inshiraah, Mystery Of War
66/1 Emilene.

DHALAM Evens

I am thinking he should win
Chances are he has not stayed a mile twice
I like the drop down to 7f
Too strong for mainly unraced opposition
Ran his profile carefully
The stumbling block 38 days absence
Had this been under 25 days then a strong profile
My angles say he is not in the perfect range
I think he will win anyway
But at the price not worth a song and dance

Selection

DHALAM 10/11

Win Bet





WOLVERHAMPTON 8.10

7/4 Little Stampy, 15/8 Masterson
5/1 Zakatal, 6/1 Lady Makfi, 8/1 Gabrial's Star.

GABRIALS STAR is 8 with 1 run in Months
LADY MAKFI an older mare with with 1 run in Months
LITTLE STAMPY an older mare with with 1 run in Months
Not keen either that LITTLE STAMPY is a tiny little thing
I am thinking
MASTERSON has had 6 races in 2017
ZAKATAL has had 5 races in 2017
Over 2 miles they must have a fitness advantage ?
ZAKATAL is older than ideal but has some big numbers
I would frame any bet around both horses
I'm going to squeze 3 in
And take on the 2 mares

£7.50 Win Bet MASTERSON 2/1

£1.25 Win Bet ZAKATAL 6/1

£1.25 Win Bet GABRIALS STAR 6/1


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