5 Races discussed
0 Staked Bets


First day of Chester's May meeting
Had a crack at 2 handicaps there
Not the most expansive of messages
Going to leave a staked bet today
My best bet looks good enough to be one
But in a weak market very late tonight
Too much can go wrong to worry about it



TODAY'S MESSAGE

6 Meetings
Nothing at Bath
Firm ground and a scrappy card
Dundalk didn't offer anything


5 Previews

Chester 2.25
Chester 3.00
Newton Abbot 3.10
Chester 3.35
Chelmsford 8.55

My National Hunt race is at Newton Abbot
I don't feel like I have sealed that deal
Gone with an each way bet in the 3.10pm
Don't want to risk a front runner each way
Increases the risk on the place part of the bet


The Safest Bet

Chelmsford 8.55

KASPERENKO 5/2

Each Way

On paper a bet that makes a lot of sense
Feels like it will be hard to lose full stakes
It's a bit of an uncouth and thuggish bet
Not subtle and with a very weak market
And a very long time before the race
The race could look completely different later
But I have had some 5/2 each way
And I wouldn't put you off doing the same
But not an easy bet to get on


2 Tough Chester Handicaps

Chester 3.00
Chester 3.35

Neither are easy
But the previews are quite imaginative
Several trying to do things not done before
These are high risk high reward races

Chester 3.00

£3.00 Each Way TAEXALI 11/1

£1.50 Saver Bet MAJESTIC HERO 8/1

£2.50 Saver Bet EL ASTRONAUTE 3/1



Chester 3.35

Chester Cup

£3.00 Each Way SIR CHAUVELIN 20/1

£1.50 Win Bet WHO DARES WINS 6/1
£1.50 Win Bet BLAKENEY POINT 7/1
£1.00 Win Bet WATERSMEET 10/1



Todays Best Bet

Chelmsford 8.55

KASPERENKO 5/2

Each Way

Right now this looks the best bet
Right here right now it is account strength
But the market is unstable
He could be 11/8 tonight

He could also be in a race he can't win
If the favourite is a far better horse
He should still easily get placed
But much we don't know about the race
Still he is worth a bet now at 5/2
And the fact I have not staked him
Makes no difference at all to the bet strength



MONDAY'S REVIEW

There was no message yesterday
Had to stop after some heavy messages
Just 2 previews on the Monday to review
Both did very well all things considering
The Sea Of Green each way bet with savers
Nicked a bit as he was a creditable second
My best bet was BOTTLEOFSMOKE 11/2
He won easily landing a very late gamble
Two good results given I was flagging a bit



PROFILES & PREVIEWS



CHESTER 2.25

15/8 Enable, 2/1 Alluringly, 5/1 Rich Legacy
6/1 Tansholpan, 10/1 Argenterie, 20/1 Hidden Steps
66/1 Erica Bing

The Cheshire Oaks
A race that usually offers toothless previews
This race never leads to exciting work
I am following the patterns of recent years

The last 15 winners all raced as 3 year olds
No seasonal debutant has won since 2002

TANSHOLPAN fails this statistic
RICH LEGACY fails this statistic
ARGENTERIE also fails it

Nothing against them other than that
They just meet 2 horses from top class yards
Who have been out and won this year
And with no debutants winning in a long time
Not hard to think they have a lot to prove

This steers us towards a potential Match
ALLURINGLY v ENABLE
Aidan O'Brien v John Gosden
I asked my Breeding Stats to choose
They chose ALLURINGLY of the pair

If you look at ENABLE's sire Nathanial
His winners over 10f or more
All came in Class 3 or lower
The sire has not yet bred a pattern race winner
Only a matter of time but he hasn't done this yet
ALLURINGLY has the safer sire of the pair
Look at the last 2 winners of this race
Both Aidan O'Brien horses sired by Fastnet Rock
ALLURINGLY is judged a safer bet because of this

Selection

Small Stakes Only

ALLURINGLY 6/4

Win Bet





CHESTER 3.00

100/30 El Astronaute, 5/1 Sir Maximilian
6/1 Majestic Hero, Reflektor, 10/1 Blithe Spirit
10/1 Spring Loaded, Taexali, 14/1 Confessional
20/1 Ballesteros, Powerallied, 25/1 Seamster
33/1 Bossipop.

5f Handicap for 0-103 rated horses
Every 5f race here since 2005
Horses drawn in 11 + had a 0-100 record
Bossipop - Rejected drawn 13
Class 2 Chester Handicaps since 1997 over 5f
Horses drawn 10 or more are 0-96
Ballesteros drawn 10 is rejected
Powerallied drawn 11 is rejected

If I look at quality 5f handicaps in May
No 8yo or older won absent over 6 weeks
CONFESSIONAL is out as a 10yo seasonal debutant
SEAMSTER is 10 older than all 44 winners
Recent run helpful but stall 9 less so

BLITHE SPIRIT was hammered last time
As a mare with 1 run this year She is unsafe
Especially as a small filly drawn 8

SIR MAXIMILLIAN is 8 absent 90 days
Horses aged 8 + absent 30 + days
Have a 0-26 record in similar races in May
Don't like his age or his absence
Throw in his weight and handicap mark of 103
Horses rated 98 or more are 0-31 in this race
SIR MAXIMILLIAN does not offer enough
He is the Class horse rated 103
And only faces a 0-96 field which I do like
But his age and absence undermines that
Some of you will remember Bishops Court in 2004
He was 8 and won a Class 2 handicap over 5f
When having an absence of 218 days
Since 2005 though no similar horse has won

Class 2 handicaps since 2005
Run over 5f
Any Time of year
Turf and Sand
Horses aged 8 or more
Absent more than 6 weeks
Have a 0-77 record
SIR MAXIMILLIAN has this problem
None like him have won since 2004
CONFESSIONAL also has this profile

SPRING LOADED is 5 absent 119 days
Not keen on that absence
Something else worries me
His sires 5f runners in Class 2 or higher
Have a 0-51 record so far
SPRING LOADED has no 5f form since his debut
Hard to select him in light of the above


REFLEKTOR is 4 absent 323 days
No problem in principle with 4yo debutants
But every debutant winner of any age
Won within 249 days and those absent longer 0-23
That is a long absence even for a debutant

Go back 20 years
Class 2 Handicaps over 5f
Any and every month of the year
Horses aged 4 or more
Absent more than 270 days
Have a 0-63 record
REFLEKTOR has this profile
Thats the stats suggesting he shouldn't win

Shortlist

EL ASTRONAUTE I can take or leave
Stall 1 is not one of the better draws here
Despite what most people believe
If I look at 4 year olds winning last time
None won again without 3 + runs that year
EL ASTRONAUTE only has 1 run
I don't like him but he is a saver
Because there is so many good angles above
I don't deserve to lose if he does win

MAJESTIC HERO won last time
One of the safer profiles for sure
One of the biggest worries I found
Horses that came from the same Epsom race
Have now got a 0-26 record trying to win here

TAEXALI has several runs in 2017
I would keep him on side because of this
His stable are flying as well

Selection

£3.00 Each Way TAEXALI 11/1

£1.50 Saver Bet MAJESTIC HERO 8/1

£2.50 Saver Bet EL ASTRONAUTE 3/1






NEWTON ABBOT 3.10

15/8 Amour De Nuit, 3/1 Talent To Amuse
4/1 Mister Universum, 5/1 Adrrastos, 8/1 Champagne City
33/1 Dare To Achieve, Enmeshing, 50/1 Ballyantics
100/1 Chica Rapida, Lake Placid, Nenergy's Quest.

Novice Hurdle over 2m 1f
Should involve 5 of the 11 runners

TALENT TO AMUSE is a 4yo filly
She has raced twice over hurdles
Once was only against her own age group
Both only against her own sex
Not the sort of profile I would want
If you look at Novice Hurdles in May
Any Distance during this month
Fillies aged 4 have a modest 2-76 record
Both winners were hurdling debutants
Fillies aged 4 who had hurdling form are 0-37
TALENT TO AMUSE fails this 0-37 record
MISTER UNIVERSUM has an average profile
There are horses more typical of winners here

AMOR DE NUIT is 5 and won last time
If I look at 5 year olds winning last time
Over 11 career starts
Over 4 previous hurdle starts
I find a strangely subdued 0-7 profile
Not very often a last time hurdle winners
Can not be matched to any winners
I still see AMOR DE NUIT as a neutral positive
But neither he or his profile are straight forward

ADRRASTOS is a 5yo
He won a Maiden hurdle last time
Horses aged 5 that had this profile
When having under 11 lifetime starts
Had a pretty strong 11-24 record
Those with 4-5 previous hurdle runs were 4-6
The 4 winners did drop in distance though
He didn't but his overall profile is promising

CHAMPAGE CITY has the best profile
4yo with an absence on hurdling debut
Has backclass and is like 3 winners
Stable reliability my main problem with him
Taking on two last time out hurdling winners

Selection

£4.25 Each Way ADRRASTOS 5/1

£1.50 Win Bet CHAMPAGE CITY 6/1




CHESTER 3.35

7/1 Blakeney Point, Golden Spear, Sea Of Heaven
8/1 Nakeeta, Who Dares Wins, 10/1 Watersmeet
14/1 Magic Circle, Montaly, The Cashel Man
14/1 Yorkidding, 16/1 First Mohican, Sir Chauvelin
20/1 Fun Mac, Isharah, 25/1 Angel Gabrial, Suegioo
33/1 Duke Of Clarence, Good Tradition

The Chester Cup is a handicap over 2m 2f

Usually the winner passes most statistics
Often though fails on just one angle
Take last years winner who was an 8yo
Since 1998 horses aged 8 were 0-38 in this
After last year they had a 1-40 record now

This year we have 4 horses aged 8 or more
I still think we should oppose them again
There are no 7 year olds this year
So these 4 horses are 2 years older than the rest
And they all have very high draws in 16 15 17 19
These 4 horses rejected on aged and draw
FIRST MOHICIAN and SEUGIOO
ANGEL GABRIEL - DUKE OF CLARENCE

Chester have 922 races at all distance since 2005
Not one winner won from Stalls 16 or higher (0-33)
Thats over any distance in the last 12 years
Go back to 2008 every race here every distance
Horses drawn 14 or higher are 0-82
MAFIC CIRCLE is rejected drawn 18
Not safe on breeding stats either
His sires Class 2 winners are over 11f or shorter

SEA OF HEAVEN is a seasonal debutant
Since 1997 we have had 5 of those winning
Only 1 of them were aged 5 (Anak Pekan 2005)
SEA OF HEAVEN is drawn 18 though
Go back to 2008 every race here every distance
Horses drawn 14 or higher are 0-82
To be fair Anak Pekan was also drawn 14
But it is not a great profile of draw
SEA OF HEAVEN is still a possible winner
Lots to prove and a sire with no winners past 2m

FUN MAC is drawn 13
Asking a lot to win first time out drawn 13
When he also has 9st 9lbs weight
Since 1988 horses with 9st 7lbs or more are 1-51
Obviously not an easy race to win with a high weight

NAKEETA has 9st 10lbs
That is a problem on the 1-51 weight stat
But more bothered about his breeding
His Sire is Sixties Icon
He has 2m and 2m 1f winners in Class 4 or lower
This sire has had 1m 6f winners in Class 2
Thats his limit and look at the Dam's Sire
The Dam's sire has a stamina index of only 6.2f
Those lowest Dam Sire index of past winners
Breeding limitations and weight worry me
I appreciate he was second last year in this
But he is higher now and older and not for me

GOLDEN SPEAR's breeding worries me
His sire Kyllachy has a stamina index of 6.7f
His Dam's Sire has has a stamina index of 8.8f
That has to be a serious stamina doubt
The lowest stamina index of past winners was 7.5f
That horse had a Dam's Sire index of 11.4f
Kyllachy has had 2m winners in Class 5 or lower
And GOLDEN SPEAR has won a 1m 7f Class 2
But there must be a serious stamina doubt

GOOD TRADITION doesn't offer enough
THE CASHEL MAN is a 5yo debutant
Only one 5yo has won first time out since 1987
THE CASHEL MAN's sire is High Chaparral
His winners in Class 3 or higher
Have a 0-19 record over 2m 1f or more
Look at the sires winners in Class 3 or higher
When absent more than 4 weeks
Those running over 1m 7f or more are 0-31
Not enough positives on Breeding stats
To tempt me to like his average profile more

YORKIDDING is the only female horse
Only 1 female horse has won since 1988
On a career high mark she has plenty to prove
I don't have a killer stat against her though

MONTALLY is a seasonal debutant with 9st 6lbs
Not an impossible profile by any means
Relying on Andrew Balding first time out though
I am not prepared to do that
As I have a bulging shortlist already

SHORTLIST

WHO DARES WINS has good and bad points
Fit and running well and can win off his mark
Stamina the big question Mark
Sire Jeremy has a stamina index of 8.6f
The Dam's Sire a stamina index of 9.4f
That is a long way from being reassuring
Jeremy has bred a 2m winner on sand
He has 1m 6f turf winners in Class 3
His runners in Class 2 or higher
Have not won beyond 10f yet (0-17)
If I look at every horse the Dam's Sire had
Those in Class 3+ over 2m or more are 0-18
I am a bit worried about his stamina

WATERSMEET has 9st 8lbs
Since 1988 horses with 9st 7lbs or more are 1-51
So he has a tough task but he is shortlistable
Running well and very fit with runs this year

BLAKENEY POINT is interesting
4yo who won on his first run this year
2 past winners 1999 2004 had this profile
Must have a great chance if he stays
His sires runners over 2m 1f and more are 0-19
I see him as a likely but not guaranteed stayer
Unexposed and every right to be high on the list

SIR CHAUVELIN has a good recent run
The 2014 and 2015 winners had that
They came from the same race

Selection


£3.00 Each Way SIR CHAUVELIN 20/1

£1.50 Win Bet WHO DARES WINS 6/1

£1.50 Win Bet BLAKENEY POINT 7/1

£1.00 Win Bet WATERSMEET 10/1




CHELMSFORD 8.55

8/13 Grieg Hall, 11/4 Kasperenko, 8/1 Toronto Sound
14/1 Zack Mayo, 16/1 Red Master, 25/1 Clearance
33/1 Arcadian Sea, Borntosin, 40/1 Incredible Dream.

10f Maiden race

Looks like a two horse race
I like KASPERENKO each way
He has a sound enough profile
He has one serious rival to beat
GRIEG HALL sets the standard so far
I tried to find some weakness in him
But I can't criticise his chance and he will go well
The main attraction to the race
Is the lack of strength in depth there is
TORONTO SOUND is unraced
He is sired by Aussie Rules
If we look at the sires unraced horses
None have won racing beyond a Mile
TORONTO SOUND fails my breeding stats
The sires runners over 9f or more
With under 2 career starts are only 1-36 anyway
None did it first time so I am against him
None of the others make much appeal

KASPERENKO has 4 runs
More experienced than the favourite
Not far behind him on the numbers
He was likely to have needed his seasonal debut
Whilst beaten by a 4 year old a bad sign
It was a decent 4 year old
KASPERENKO was very unlucky as well
And if they ran the race again he's win easily
It is a bit too obvious
But not hard to like him each way at 5/2

Selection

KASPERENKO 5/2

Each Way

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