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Today's Message


6 Previews today
All have interesting issues

Not sure what to expect from today
I'm finding these October cards tricky
Not 100% at the moment either
Seem to have found a throat infection
Happened overnight which is a pain
So my confidence is not where I'd like it

I have bets that look very safe on paper
Rock solid risk free each way bets

Carp Kid 5/2 in the Salisbury 2pm

Saxo Jack 7/1 in the 3.15 Bangor

Not sure how much trust I have with them

Class and fitness trump form
Sometimes Trust trumps everything
There are a couple of races
Like the 1.50 Nottingham
Where the Staking was difficult
It was in my favourite race at Naas

I like the Nursery at Naas

Todays Best Bet


NAAS 3.10

£7 Win Bet CASTROGIOVANN 5/2

£3 Win Bet RED PERSIAN 5/2

What is annoying about this race
Just a couple of hours ago
Red Persian looked like being 9/2
I was going a different route then
£7.50 Red Persian 9/2 with a saver

I think this pair are the class horses
I could happily side with either of them
As long as the other was a saver bet
The market has messed us up a bit

Whilst this now far from satisfactory
I do feel more trust in this race
Than going for one of the softer races
That throw up each way burglary bets
But the question now has to be
Is this bet really worth it at 5/2 5/2
Thats why I have not staked it today



The Account has stalled a bit
But just don't feel on top of things

Future Betting Angles is interesting
This is about the Champion Hurdle
May not be the final selection in March
But I won't be surprised if it is
And when you look at this race
It is time to take the 4/1 Buveur D'air


Bit under the weather
So keeping off the account
Which is probably best anyway
After my horse has been backed




Tuesdays Review

Very rusty comeback message yesterday
3 Previews returned just one placed bet
Whilst that was disappointing if playing
2 of the 3 bets went down in a photo finish
So we didn't get any of the rub of the green
Would be nice to think we used up bad luck
On midweek races that did not matter much





PROFILES & PREVIEWS


NOTTINGHAM 1.50

3/1 Rozanne, 4/1 All Out, Little Boy Blue,
5/1 Charnock Richard, Princess Keira, 10/1 Littlelordconford
16/1 Broughton Excels, Zouch, 100/1 Amazing Amaya.

5f Maiden

Just folllowing profiles here
ROZANNE has the best profile
Despite no 5f experience
CHARNOCK RICHARD a saver
That gets us the experienced horse
And the numbers horse on side

With the next two dangers
A Micky Quinn filly
A Bill Turner gelding off 70 days
I'd happy enough with the shortlist

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet ROXANNE 11/4

£2.50 Win Bet CHARNOCK RICHARD 3/1

The other option was Roxanne each way
That may turn out to be a safer bet
The win and saver bet stands




SALISBURY 2.00

5/6 Ace Ventura, 2/1 Carp Kid, 8/1 Red Miracle,
10/1 Corgi, 20/1 Regular Income, 33/1 Gozo Girl,
33/1 Tour De Paris, 50/1 Mandalayan,
66/1 Masons Belle, 100/1 Santiago Rock.

2yo Novice over 8f
ACE VENTURA sets the standard
But after just 1 run he is not far ahead
Racing Post Ratings give him a 2lbs edge
I am curious he lost 7 lengths on debut
ACE VENTURA is sired by Mayson
Can we be sure he stays a mile
Horses aged 2 sired by Mayson
Have a 0-14 record so far none winning
Horses aged 2 sired by Mayson
Running over 7f or more
With under 2 career starts are 0-22
Horses of any age sired by Mayson
Running over 8f or more
Under 5 runs show a 0-29 record
I feel there is a legitimate stamina question

RED MIRACLE didn't offer enough
Not starting 100/1 on debut
From a small stable a filly taking on colts
REGULAR INCOME has modest numbers
From a small stable I'd look elsewhere
CORGI is unraced and passed over

CARP KID could be the sensible bet
Given the staking doubts about the favourite
CARP KID has raced once before
He is 2nd best on the numbers after that run
That may be more credible than it looks
On debut he was drawn 15 at Newbury
If I look at unraced horses at Newbury over 7f
Since 2011 those drawn 13 or more were 0-69
None have won on debut drawn that high in ages
G0 back to 1998 at Newbury over 7f
Unraced horses drawn 14 or more are 0-78
CARP KID failed both those draw stats on debut
So not unreasonable to upgrade his 1st run
I am going to take him over the favourite

Selection

CARP KID 5/2

Win Bet for those preferring that

Each Way bet for those of us who like safety






NAAS 2.35

3/1 Aurora Eclipse, 7/2 Hawaam, Verhoyen,
7/1 It's All A Joke, 14/1 Gottardo, Hot Stone,
14/1 BNLorente, 16/1 Just Waterville, New Vocation,
16/1 Nkhata Bay, 25/1 Ar Saoirse, 33/1 Colonel Paddy,
33/1 Highly Approved, 50/1 Rapid Reaction,
50/1 Verse Of Vienna, 66/1 Rock Crusher.

5F Maiden

Wont be many that can win this
If you look at the Naas Draw
Any and every kind of 5f race
Run at Naas any time of year
You find from the 41 races run
Horses drawn 12 or more are 1-44
Horses drawn 14 or more are 0-23
No horse won any 5f race here drawn 14 +
AURORA ECLIPSE drawn 14 has this problem

Look at horses with under 2 runs
In any 5f race at Naas since 2009
Those drawn 9 or higher were 0-46
AURORA ECLIPSE is rejected from her draw
GOTTARDO is rejected drawn 16

IT'S ALL A JOKE is unraced
Probably better off with experience
Sept and October 2yo maidens over 5f
Since 2008
With 14 or more runners
Show unraced horses are 0-29
LORENTE has raced once
Dropping from a 7f race to a 5f as well
There are much safer options

VERHOYEN has experience
He has some very good numbers
Blotted his copybook last time out
That was a valuable big field race
Depends on how far we can excuse him

HAWAAM could be a big runner
His absence is down to a Gelding operation
He has to be considered a big threat

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet VERHOYEN 4/1

£2.50 Win Bet HAWAAM 3/1






SALISBURY 3.05

2/1 Helvetian, 3/1 Algam,
7/2 Nine Below Zero, Thechildren'strust
10/1 Mr Top Hat.

8F Conditions race for 2 year olds
HELVETIAN may be better over shorter
I don't think he is a safe bet over 6f
THECHILDREN'STRUST is well backed
Beast backed horse which surprised me
Won on his debut at 100/1
That at the time was unfathomable
All I know conditions races in Sept-October
Any Distance and Any Class
Show all winners absent more than 8 weeks
Had at least 2 previous runs
THECHILDREN'STRUST does not have that
Not saying he can't win in a small field
But his profile is hardly safe

MR TOP HAT is interesting
First thoughts were he lacked the class
But when you think about it
He has the shortest absence
And the only horse that is not penalised
Every other horse has a penalty

I am playing it this way

£6 Win Bet MR TOP HAT 5/1

£2 Win Bet NINE BELOW ZERO 4/1

£2 Win Bet ALGAM 4/1





NAAS 3.10

7/2 Castrogiovanni, 9/2 Yolo Star, 5/1 Red Persian,
7/1 Julia's Magic, 9/1 Angelique, Stewardess,
10/1 Island Affair, 12/1 Art Of Unity, Early Call
14/1 Ty Rock Brandy.

5f Nursery

YOLO START is 2nd in the weights
She is a filly absent 138 days

Nurserys
September and October
Any Distance and Any Class
Fillies absent over 90 days
Have a miserable 1-113 record
Those running on turf are 0-68
Those with under 4 runs were 0-84
YOLO START fails both these angles
With 3rd in the weights ANGELIQUE
Hard to like dropping from 8f to 5f
And 4th in the weights EARLY CALL
Hammered recently and badly drawn
I think we should exploit these horses
And corner the two Class horses here

RED PERSIAN
CASTROGIOVANNI

I don't see a strong threat to this pair
Not to say there isn't one
But they are solid types in these races

Selection

£7 Win Bet RED PERSIAN 3/1

£3 Win Bet CASTROGIOVANNI 11/4







BANGOR 3.15

2/5 Bedrock, 5/1 Saxo Jack, 13/2 The Flame,
14/1 Inniscastle Lad, Primo Time, Ready And Able,
33/1 Chozen, 100/1 Baileys Galaxy, Norse Castle,
100/1 Subtle Soldier, Wayside Magic,
100/1 Yorkshire Monarch.

Novice Hurdle over 2m

BEDROCK has achieved the most
Sets a decent standard
Looks a nice prospect

Racing Post Hurdle ratings of 117 143 130

Next best is SAXO JACK
Racing Post Hurdle ratings of 103 112 120

BEDROCK is ahead admittedly
But should he be so short at 2/5 ?
I say that for a few reasons
He has 156 days off the track
His Main rival has several recent runs
If you look at last time out hurdle winners
Those aged 7 have an excellent 6-16 record
So SAXO ROCK has a decent profile
Is it not possible he could be a serious threat ?

When BEDROCK won at Bangor
His main danger fell very early
He had little to beat that day
His previous runs were against 4yo's
And what bothers me most about him
BEDROCK is not a very big horse
Perhaps he doesn't have much improvement

SAXO ROCK is not a bad each way option
We are getting a very fair price
Other options thin on the ground
Worth a bet
But not with big stakes

Selection

SAXO JACK 7/1

Each Way








Future Betting Angles


Champion Hurdle 2018

Cheltenham March

BUVEUR DAIR 7/2 - 4/1

4/1 Bet365 Spbet Betbright
7/2 Skybet Betfred PPower Tote

Too early to confirm him as a selection
But I backed Buveur D'Air yesterday
To make sure I couldn't lose if he won

Been a while since a repeat winner
But over the years many have done this
It's a brilliant race for duplicate winners

BUVEUR DAIR is top class
On Racing Post Ratings
He was the best hurdler around last year
He has a Racing Post Hurdle Rating of 171
His Nearest rival has a rating of just 168

He won the 2017 Champion Hurdle
He did that in a Racing Post Rating of 170
The same rating as Faugheen in 2015
Far better than Annie Powers 162 in 2016
BUVEUR DAIR is an above average Champion

If he defends his crown he could be very short
So he should be in such a weak division

Nicky Henderson could send him Chasing
Just as he did last year
That would be a disaster for our bet
But he says he will run in the Fighting Fifth
That suggests he is staying over hurdles
As a Champion Hurdler he will delay fences


We should bet BUVEUR DAIR now
Take the 7/2 and 4/1 even to small stakes
There looks little credible opposition
And the race is under 6 months away !

Champion Hurdle Betting

Buveur Dair (4) Defi Du Seuil (8) Faugheen (8)
Douvan (12) Yorkhill (12) Apples Jade (20)
Labaik (20) Limini (20) Min (20) Identity Thief (25)
Lami Serge (25) Melon (25) Petit Mouchoir (25)
Wicklow Brave (25) Arctic Fire (33) Bacardys (33)
Bapaume (33) nCharli Parcs (33)

DEFI DU SEUIL will be a 5 year old next year
And age that hardly ever wins the Champion
His best Rating is 150 some 20lbs behind

FAUGHEEN will be a 10 year old at Cheltenham
Far too old the last winner that old back in 1981
Besides that he is unraced in 21 months now

DOUVAN surely isn't going to run
The same applies to LABAIK

L'AMI SERGE has already moved up to 3m +
APPLES JADE and LIMINI don't scare me
They both ran in the Mares hurdle last year
Probably will again and neither have our class

MIN is W W over fences
Why would he suddenly go back hurdling
IDENTITY THIEF could revert to fences

MELON could develop into a threat
YORKHILL will be if he runs
But he'd have multiple festival options
His last 4 runs were over fences
More chance of him running in a Gold Cup

PETIT MOUCHOIR was 3rd last year
Needs to improve and very beatable

BUVEUR D'AIR finds him Champion
In a division that is thin to the bone
His main market dangers make no appeal
In a race thats only 5 months away

It would make sense right now
To take a bit of 4/1 and 7/2
As he could be very short on the day

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