6 Previews
1 Account Bet


Today's Bet

Market Rasen 12.50

BLACK SAM BELLA 5/2-11/4

Each Way

1/4 Odds 1,2 Places

100/30 Stan J (?)
3/1 V Chandler
11/4 Bet365 Spbet Betfred
5/2 Generally
5/2 is fine but no shorter





Today's Racing

Set up this new computer yesterday
It felt like a day down the coal mines
Took me all day to get everything done

It's limited me to 6 races today
Happy with the races
Happy with the selections
The staking worries me a bit


Account Bet today

Market Rasen 12.50

BLACK SAM BELLA 5/2-11/4

Each Way

1/4 Odds 1,2 Places



In the preview
You will see her price is 3/1-7/2
That was her price when i did the race
She has shortened a bit though
This was a 50-50 call
I can criticise all her rivals
But I can not make her a positive
Not on a neutral profile
We can not know how good the favourite is
But she seems a logical bet to me




There are probably
20 Messages in the rest of 2017
These are some of the targets
That I want to achieve in them

Future Betting Angles is back
Mainly Ante Post based as before
Going to re-start this tomorrow

The following things and more
Will be included in these 20 messages

Welsh National stats and advanced work
King George work for Boxing day

To put some numerical scaffolding
Which is an angle I've not done before
Around the following Cheltenham races
Supreme Novice
Arkle
Champion Hurdle
Neptune
Rsa Chase
Albert Bartlett
It will offer complete perspective

There will be other big chances
Not least with the message format
And the account will have changes
Need to talk this through with Mick
Or I will end up in the dog house
Either way changes are coming soon
Future Betting Angles returns Friday




Wednesday's Review

I cut short yesterday
One of my computers died
The 3 previews didn't do well
Summer Icon was a fast finishing 4th
Drifted badly and finished never nearer
I have my doubts about his run
He was not given a very good ride
Easily should have been placed there
Iniesta finished only 2nd
Wrongly chose him in a match
The saver won the third preview
Which wasn't as much as we needed




PROFILES & PREVIEWS



MARKET RASEN 12.50

8/11 Sunshade, 7/2 Black Sam Bella,
5/1 Infinite Sun, 11/1 Dyliev, 16/1 Absolutely Dylan
33/1 Buckby Boy.

Novice Hurdle between 2m 2f and 2m 3f
Some interesting angles here

INFINITE SUN is sired by And Beyond
He has no hurdle form before
Horses sired by And Beyond over hurdles
Under 4 previous hurdle runs
Return a 0-110 record to date
INFINITE SUN shares this 0-110 profile

SUNSHADE sets the standard
Racing Post Rating of 120 on hurdles debut
Next best rating is 110
She deserves to be odds on
But she has only had 2 career starts
SUNSHADE is only a 4yo filly with 2 runs
DYLIEV is a 4yo filly with just 1 run

Novice Hurdles
November and December
Any and every distance
Fillies aged 4 don't win many
Those with under 4 lifetime starts
They have a 5-142 record since 2007
If I look at races over 2m 2f and more
Fillies aged 4 with under
Under 4 lifetime starts
Have a 1-56 record
Those with 1 run this year were 0-18
SUNSHADE is not a negative
But she has plenty to prove on profile
And there are no fillies winning like her
None like DYLIEV either

BLACK SAM BELLA is the alternative
She is a 5yo mare down from 2m 5f
No horse tried to win with her profile
Not easy to judge how safe she is
But the 3 market dangers to her
All have plenty to prove
And do fail interesting angles
I am going with her each way
Only 2 places but 1/4 the Odds
One of my negatives may show up
And have enough to win the race
Should be hard to find two doing it
Without going mad she has a chance

Selection

BLACK SAM BELLA 3/1-7/2

Each Way

1/4 Odds 1,2 Places





CLONMEL 1.30

8/11 Coquin Mans, 2/1 Taglietelle,
13/2 Val De Ferbet, 25/1 Admiral Brian
50/1 Carrigeen Acebo.

3m Hurdle
COQUIN MANS does stand out
Comes here scoring big numbers

TAGLIETELLE may not stay 3m
Very few horses by the sire do
He has won at 3m before
But thats not always the full story
I've opposed him many times before
May not get home with an absence
Even allowing for a recent charity race
VAL DU FERBET has been chasing
Not overkeen on that but is at least fit
No stamina issues either
I think he is the danger

Prediction

COQUIN to win

VEL DU FERBET to finish 2nd

Betting Options include
Forecasts
Place bets
Match bets




CLONMEL 2.00

5/2 Ali Bin Nayef, 5/1 Loch Luatha, 11/2 Battling Spirit,
8/1 Alices Man, 9/1 Ballymadun, 12/1 Demi Plie,
14/1 Secret Approach, 16/1 In Our Blood, Jimmyjames,
16/1 Miss McIlroy, Ned's Indian, 25/1 Ballea Fox.

2m 3f Handicap hurdle
Out of the comfort zone here

BATTLING SPIRIT is hard to commit to
He is a 10 year old
Has just 1 run since 2015
Didn't want to risk him much
ALICE'S MAN is a mare from a chase
Hardly the safest of profiles

Look at last time out Racing Post Ratings

ALI BIN NAYEF has a 102 rating
His rivals had the following
89 58 71 84 91 86 76 73 90 72 57 53
ALI BIN NAYEF has a nice edge there

ALI BIN NAYEF also has 3 runs since Nov 1st
Most of these have only 1 run in that time
Only 2 of them had 2 runs in that time
ALI BIN NAYEF has the most recent runs
H has the shortest absence as well

So the case for him is strong
ALI BIN NAYEF must be on the shortlist
Even if I can't get his profile right
Hard to know how he will get on
Dropping down 2f just 6 days from a race
LOCH LUATHA was my other option
Like his overall positives

ALI BIN NAYEF each way is an option
But 13 runners not the friendliest of races
I will play it this way

Selection

ALI BIN NAYEF £8.50 Win 5/2

LOCH LUATHA £1.50 Win 7/1






MARKET RASEN 2.25

11/4 Stick To The Plan, 100/30 Christmas In April
7/2 Huntsman Son, 9/2 Lettheriverrundry
8/1 Towering, 14/1 Fair To Middling
20/1 Aviator, Kiwayu.

Handicap Hurdle around 2m 4f

STICK TO THE PLAN is topweight
He is rated 122 facing a 0-117 class field
Last time he was bottomweight
He ran in a 0-149 at Cheltenham over 3m
He was the lowest rated horse that day
He was out of the handicap
He goes from recieving weight from class horses
To conceeding weight to average ones
He deserves to be favourite here

His opposition have plenty to prove
CHRISTMAS IN APRIL lacks a run this year
5yo debutants are 2-48 in these races
Neither winner had his weight
Neither were beaten in Non handicaps last time
HUNTSMAN SON is not very orthodox
Not as a 7 year old with just 2 runs
Few like him tried to win but none did
They are not far behind on the numbers
STICK TO THE PLAN has achieved more though
And he doesn't have to give much weight away
LETTHERIVERRUNDRY didn't appeal
Not as a 7yo sired by Diamond Green
STICK TO THE PLAN is my choice
His profile is inconclusive
No winners were like him
But I'd argue unlikely 3 will beat him
That was a serious race he was 5th in last time
This in contrast is a much easier one

Selection

STICK TO THE PLAN 5/2

Each Way

This is also a possible option

Market Rasen 2.25 - Stick To The Plan 5/2

Clonmel 2.35 Robin Des Mana 9/4

£3 Win Bet on each horse
£2 Each Way Double




CLONMEL 2.35

6/4 Monbeg Chit Chat, 15/8 Robin Des Mana,
11/1 West Bridge, 12/1 Lilshane, Steamboat Quay,
16/1 Carlitos Bay, 25/1 Mindsmadeup, 33/1 Blue Empyrean
33/1 Kiera Royale, 40/1 Oh Me Oh My.

Beginners Chase over 2m

The market suggests a Match

MONBEG CHIT CHAT v ROBIN DES MANA
Not convinced about the favourite
MONBEG CHIT CHAT is down 5 furlongs
Having had just 1 run this season
Having raced just 18 days ago

Similar 2m races in November/December
Horses from 2m 5f or more
Running within 45 days
Having 1 run that season
Show a 0-26 record so far
MONBEG CHIT CHAT has this 0-26 profile

He was an expensive purchase though
Had excuses last time out as well
So no surprise if he takes this
But purely on their profiles
ROBIN DES MANA looks a better bet

Selection

£8 Win Bet ROBIN DES MANA 9/4

£1 Saver West Bridge 10/1

£1 Saver Blue Empyrean

ROBIN DES MANA could be used
As an each way double





CHELMSFORD 8.00

5/2 Chaucer's Tale, 100/30 Huddersfilly Town,
4/1 Arcadian Sea, 8/1 Ceyhan, 10/1 Love Me Again,
10/1 Venetian Proposal, 16/1 Life Happens,
20/1 Lord Of The Storm, 25/1 Fairy Mist,
33/1 Optima Petamus, 50/1 Diana Lady.

10f Handicap for 0-60 rated horses

CHAUCER'S TALE has a problem
He comes from a 7f race
He goes up in trip 3 furlongs
Very tough ask with a 7 day absence

November and December
10f Handicaps in any class
Horses from 7f races
Running within 4 weeks are 0-76
CHAUCER'S TALE fails this angle

10f handicaps
Any Class of race
Any time of year
Horses aged 3
coming from 7f races
Running within 2 weeks
Have a 0-69 record
CHAUCER'S TALE fails this angle

Don't like any of the outsiders
Diana Lady and Optima Petamus are rejected
LIFE HAPPENS has far too much to prove
FAIRY MIST is aged 10 and absent 119 days
He is 0-14 over 9f or more anyway

VENETIAN PROPOSAL is a 3yo filly
She has a 108 day absence
Fillies aged 3 in similar Class 6 races
Have a 0-37 record absent 6 weeks or more
Look at all Class 6 Handicaps
Run over any distance at this time of year
3yo Fillies with 12 or more runs
Have a 0-75 record absent more than 55 days
LORD OF THE STORM is hard to like
As a 9yo absent 49 days and running poorly
LOVE ME AGAIN doesn't offer a lot
Her stamina is far from proven

ARCADIAN SEA is a 3yo absent 49 days
Statistically he is fine
But maybe not the first choice
I wouldn't rely on his trainer anyway

CEYHAM has a decent chance
Although he is up from a 7f race
His absence negatives that problem

HUDDERSFILLY TOWN won last time
Filly in form every chance of following up

Selection

£3.50 Each Way CEYHAM 6/1

£3.00 Win Bet HUDDERSFILLY TOWN 5/2

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