8 Previews
7 Cheltenham
1 Southwell
1 Account Bet

Day 2 and things calming down a bit
The opening day always has more drama
We are all back on a level playing field now
Interesting Neat and Tidy message today

A couple of races should be out of bounds
Limited to what I can do in the later races
I have pulled in a Southwell race I like

I will be freshening up the message soon
Have a think about a 9.30 am send time.
Worth a look at going for early messages



Today's Bet

Combines 2 races
1 Horse in the 1.55
2 Horses in the 1.30
2 x £2.50 Each Way Doubles (£10)


Southwell 1.55 - INVINCIBLE MAN 5/2

Cheltenham 1.30 - BACARDYS 100/30

£2.50 Each Way Double


Southwell 1.55 - INVINCIBLE MAN 5/2

Cheltenham 1.30 - NEON WOLF 2/1

£2.50 Each Way Double





T o d a y s M e s s a g e


8 Previews

Only 3 realistic Bets I considered

1) Cheltenham 1.30 - Split stake bet

2) Southwell 1.55 - Win bet & saver

3) A Bet combining both the above races


If I use my Southwell race
And combine it with the Cheltenham 1.30
We have a very interesting bet

But if the Southwell bet goes down
It would feel a bit sacrilegious
Imagine getting the Neptune winner at 1.30
Then watching it all go up in smoke
On the dirty all weather at Southwell

Still every loser brings it's own level of pain
And I think we have a reasonably good bet
Much as it is a bit of a nuisance to get on
And you don't have to follow the staked bets
Plenty of people pick their own from the analysis





Message Selections


Cheltenham 1.30

£7 Win Bet BACARDYS 100/30
£3 Win Bet NEON WOLF 2/1

Southwell 1.55

£8.50 Win Bet INVINCIBLE MAN 5/2
£1.50 Win Bet IT´S HOW WE ROLL 6/1

Cheltenham 2.10

£7.00 Win Bet ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS 6/1
£2.00 Win Bet MIGHT BITE 7/2
£1.00 Win Bet BELLSHILL 9/1
£1.00 Win Bet ROYAL VACATION 11/1

Cheltenham 3.30

Betting without Douvan Market

£8.50 Win Bet FOX NORTON 5/2
£1.50 Win Bet GARDE LA VICTOIRE 8/1

Cheltenham 4.10

£3 Each Way BLESS THE WINGS 14/1
£2 Win Bet CAUSE OF CAUSES 4/1
£2 Win Bet CANTLOW 100/30

Cheltenham 4.50

£1.50 Each Way DOMPERIGNON DU LYS 11/1
£1.50 Each Way DREAMCATCHING 14/1
£1.00 Each Way LONG CALL 8/1
£1.00 Win DAKOTA MOIRETTE 20/1
£1.00 Win PROSPECTUS 25/1

Cheltenham 5.30

£4 Win Bet SOMEDAY 9/1
£4 To Place CARTER MCKAY 6/4 (Place Bet only)
£1 Win Bet FAYONAGH 12/1
£1 Win Bet BAKMAJ 14/1




T u e s d a y 's S u m m a r y

Lots to get though from yesterday
EDWULF has to be the starting point
He was going brilliantly in the later stages of the race
Running a fabulous race trading at 1.52 in running
Then something went wrong very quickly
It was shocking to see him suddenly pull up
Most people thought had broken a leg
Thankfully whatever it was didn't cost him his life
I was literally shaking 3 out which isn't like me
I was just relieved the horse survived
I felt like we had been on a little journey together
May not see him again but he made his mark on me

The account bet went down in that race
It was a strange day almost with Parallel analysis
There were the Ante Post horses many had backed
Yanworth, Edwulf and Ballyandy the main ones
And there were the selections in the message
Sometimes both of them contradicted each other
Nothing much we could have done about that
It was just a weird situation we had to get past

BALLYANDY suffered some bad luck in running
But he would not have won with a dream ride
In the end BALLYANDY finished in 4th Place
I was right about MELON being a place bet
I felt I read the race reasonably well on the day
Take that impossible to find winner out of the race
We would have had the 1st 2nd and 3rd
We did ok there all things considered
Obviously disappointed Ballyandy didn't deliver

CLOUDY DREAM was a low grade winner for us
Little fish are sweet and all that and they all count

The 3m Handicap was ridiculously tough
One of my bets Fell at the first fence
We had a couple run their hearts out to no avail
Wasn't confident there are no real surprise to fail
YANWORTH ran disappointingly
I never felt safe with the Norse Dancer connection
But I was surprised how poorly he finished the race
I said a few weeks ago in the message
That I was convinced this was a two horse race
I named Yanworth and BUVEAU D'AIR
You will all remember the piece I did about it
So I was a bit annoyed with myself I left him alone
I should have saved on the horse but didn't

APPLES JADE won as our saver
I wasn't confident about the race but we didn't lose
The last race was a stick a pin in and hope race
We had a split stake bet 12/1 and 11/1
Remarkably they finished 1st and 2nd !!!
I'd like to claim credit for an outstanding forecast
But i was guessing and my angles take the credit

The overall selections in the message
Went P W L L P L W so we had two winners
But it was overshadowed by a lot of other stuff
Could have been a lot better and a lot worse
Thankfully like EDWULF we live to fight another day






P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s


G e n e r i c S t a t i s t i c s

Horses Not to Bet

5 out of 5 on Day 1
Day 2 is always on the quiet side
Because there are no handicap chases
The Generic Stats seem past the sell by dates

Cheltenham 1.30 - Consul De Thaix
Cheltenham 2.50 - Monksland
Cheltenham 2.50 - Taquin Du Seuil
Cheltenham 2.50 - The Romford Pele






C h e l t e n h a m 13:30

Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle
(Grade 1) 2m 5f

7/4 Neon Wolf, 3/1 Bacardys, 8/1 Messire Des Obeaux
10/1 Willoughby Court, 12/1 Bon Papa, 12/1 Shattered Love
14/1 Keeper Hill, 16/1 Consul De Thaix, 20/1 Kemboy
25/1 Brelade, 25/1 De Dollar Man, 33/1 Burbank
33/1 Livelovelaugh, 40/1 Skipthecuddles
50/1 Poetic Rhythm.

The Neptune is a 2m 5f Grade 1 Novice Hurdle

Two horses dominate the market
NEON WOLF is sexy and unbeaten
Impressive winning all 3 runs and 2 over hurdle
BACARDYS is solid rather than Sexy
And a serious threat from Willie Mullins
The market leaders offer a nice contrast

NEON WOLF only has 3 lifetime races
BACARDYS his main danger had 7 races
That could well be an advantage late in the race

If we look at Racing Post Hurdle Ratings
NEON WOLF has the highest numbers
That should reassure those of you
Who are a bit worried about 3 career starts

Recent winners had the following lifetime runs
6 9 4 8 4 5 3 8 4 11 9 17
NEON WOLF with 3 runs
Does feel a bit on the inexperienced side

The 2010 winner had 3 lifetime starts
He had a similar profile from the same race
That horse (Peddlers Cross) was a 5 year old
NEON WOLF is a 6yo so not a perfect match

Racing Post Ratings
The Numbers past winners recorded on the day
158 162 155 159 162 151 156 159 149 149 155
We need a horse capable of at least a 149 rating

If we look at the horses that have won this race
They achieved the following numbers beforehand
152 147 149 156 153 145 148 158
The last 8 winners had achieved a 145 + Rating
Before they ran in this race
I'm opposing the horses who have not done that

DE DOLLAR MAN has managed only a 138 rating

KEEPER HILL has never been out of Class 4
His career best Racing Post Rating is 139
Thats 6lbs shorter than the last 8 winners all managed

KEMBOY and BON PAPA fall just short as well
Both these horses are very lightly raced with 3 runs
I want more than either of this pair offer
They are not the first string from their stables
LIVELOVELAUGH is the wrong age
BRELADE is not his stables best chance

CONSUL DE THAIX has a Racing Post Rating of 143
Still a bit short of what I would like
I can't give him the benefit of the doubt
Because he has the longest absence in the race
He fails a Generic statistic as well
No 5yo has won a Grade 1 here with his absence

SHATTERED LOVE also falls short as well
She has not achieved a 145 rating yet
She is also a Mare built for chasing
The only mare in the race not something I'm drawn to
Obviously her stable demand respect but not for me
Cheltenham Festival Novice Hurdles since 2007
Mares have a 0-10 record in these races
If you look all the Grade 1 hurdles
Mares 1-30 the only winner the 8yo Annie Power

Shortlist

MESSIRE DES OBEAUX has a chance for Alan King
He is fit and seems to be progressive
And already achieved the benchmark of past winners
Alan King doesn't have the greatest record though
In the Non Handicap Hurdles at this festival
He is now 0-51 since 2008 and rarely takes them

WILLOUGHBY COURT has achieved enough
His trainer Ben Pauling hasn't had a festival winner
Only ever had 1 winner anytime at Cheltenham before
Talented trainer but still on a learning curve
The above 2 horses are 3rd and 4th favourites
You can argue they offer some value at nice prices
But a lot of it comes down to stable reliability

NEON WOLF has the best numbers and is sexy
But he lacks the experience usually needed

BACARDYS does have that experience
Has to prove stamina but should be fine
There is a big case for BACARDYS each way
It would mean taking 3/1 or 100/30 though
And we don't know much about his sire
I think we should play the race this way
Split stake bet and cover them both
£7 BACARDYS 100/30 £3 NEON WOLF 2/1
What this basically means
Is we are betting BACARDYS at 2/1
With cash back if Neon Wolf wins

Selection

£7 Win Bet BACARDYS 100/30

£3 Win Bet NEON WOLF 15/8 -2/1





S o u t h w e l l 1.55

11/4 Invincible Man, 100/30 Clock Chimes, 5/1 Deep Challenger
11/2 It´s How We Roll, 11/2 So Happy, 10/1 Seeking Attention
16/1 Huddersfilly Town, 20/1 Ejabah, 33/1 Mount Cleshar
66/1 House Of Frauds, 66/1 Momentori.

This is a 7f Maiden

CLOCK CHIMES may be vulnerable
Might be wrong but something I dislike about him
He has raced just once before
That was only 6 days ago as well
That would worry me on its own
The record in March in 7f maidens
Of horses with 1 career race
Running within the last 11 days is 0-20
But CLOCK CHIMES also drops down from 8f
I looked at every 7f Maiden run before
Any time of year both Sand and Grass
Horses from 8f races
1 Previous race
Running within 11 days
Have a 0-52 record
No horse has managed to do that
Which doesn't surprise me at all
I can't get too excited as several were not fancied
CLOCK CHIMES is the shortest priced horse to try
So I can not really say he is a good negative
I can just say he might be a good negative
Instinctively I'm not comfortable with the profile

SO HAPPY is an unraced 4 year old
Unraced 4 year old males are 0-7 in similar races
Statistically it is not as big a problem as I hoped
but if you look at all Southwell races over 6f or more
And look at what draw unraced horses come from
None since 2010 have won from Stall 10 or higher
The last to manage it was 8 years ago
That's every distance over 5f all year round
So an unraced winner from Stall 10 would be unusual
SO HAPPY would not be my choice

SEEKING ATTENTION is a once raced filly
Didn't really achieve much on her debut
Decided on this track there were safer options
EJABAH is a filly absent 105 days
With 4 runs and weak numbers hard to like

DEEP CHALLENGER is a 5 year old
He has raced just once and that was 317 days ago
Look at every 7f maiden race run since 2007
Open to 3 year olds at any time of year
Horses aged 5 or more
Have a poor 4-298 record
Those absent more than 33 days were 0-89
DEEP CHALLENGER fails this 0-89 statistic
Those with just 1 previous race were 0-65
DEEP CHALLENGER fails this 0-65 angle as well

Shortlist

INVINCIBLE MAN 11/4
IT´S HOW WE ROLL 6/1


INVINCIBLE MAN is no worldbeater
He has the best numbers though
Reasonably competent runs this season

IT´S HOW WE ROLL has 4 runs
He has achieved less so far from 4 runs
May not have been ready to win as a 2yo
His one race this year was drawn 12 of 12
On a lot of levels I like his chance a lot
It is just his trainer that puts me off
I've learnt over the years not to trust him
And never to rely on him with a decent bet

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet INVINCIBLE MAN 11/4

£1.50 Win Bet IT´S HOW WE ROLL 6/1







C h e l t e n h a m 14:10

RSA Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 3m ½f

11/4 Might Bite, 5/1 Acapella Bourgeois, 5/1 Alpha Des Obeaux
11/2 Whisper, 9/1 Bellshill, 9/1 Royal Vacation, 12/1 Our Kaempfer
16/1 O O Seven, 20/1 Marinero, Heron Heights, 40/1 Briery Belle
50/1 Aurillac.

The RSA is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m

Just a few background statistics to show a certain type
The last 17 winners had the following Chase starts
5 2 3 5 3 5 5 3 4 4 3 8 5 4 3 5 4
The last 17 winners had these Hurdle + Chase runs
13 8 8 11 9 11 11 12 9 10 10 18 11 9 9 8 9
16 of the 17 had at least 3 runs that season as well
Horses aged 7 have the best record
9 of the last 10 winners were aged 7
14 of the last 16 winners were aged 7

MIGHT BITE this years favourite is an 8yo
He Fell on Boxing Day when in command
He was about to win a Kempton Grade 1 easily
That run entitles him to be the favourite
There has been nagging doubts about him
Despite winning at Cheltenham before over hurdles
He jumped poorly in his only Chase run here
Some are not convinced he is courageous enough
And the vibes have been poor
I have some objections of my own
He is not the best age for starters
Horses aged 8 like him are 1-33 in the last 16 years
And not sure "Scorpion" is the sort of sire I'd want
If you look at the sires runners over 2m 6f or more
In Class 2 or higher they have a 0-17 record
He would of course have beaten that at Kempton
But He is not a traditional National Hunt sire

ALPHA DES OBEAUX has his own problems
First of all he pulled up last time out
But it is his 76 day absence that worries me most

Go Back to the 1989 renewal
Since then every winner except Don Poli
Won with an absence of no more than 53 days
Don Poli won with a 72 day absence
ALPHA DES OBEAUX is absent longer
He would be the longest absent winner since pre 1989
And with 16 runs over Hurdles and Fences
He is more exposed than 16 of the last 17 winners

WHISPER also has this problem absent 72 days
He is a 9yo and the last his age to win back in 1992
WHISPER has raced only twice this season
18 of the last 20 winners had more runs the year they won
I wonder if WHISPER isn't a bit too exposed anyway
The last 17 winners had these Hurdle + Chase runs
13 8 8 11 9 11 11 12 9 10 10 18 11 9 9 8 9
WHISPER has 19 runs over hurdles and chases
That's more than all of the last 17 winners
Given his age he is too risky for me

BRIERY BELLE is a mare absent 73 days
Absent longer than every past winner and a weak age
MARINERO has a 123 day absence
HERON HEIGHTS is the wrong age and underraced

It was 16 years since a handicapper won this race
Two managed it pre 2003 but both had recent runs
OUR KAEMPFER has not had that
O O SEVEN has not got that either

I don't feel there is enough with this pair to draw me in
O O SEVEN is Nicky Hendersons third string
That makes him harder to like
OUR KAEMPFER is trained by Charlie Longsdon
His Cheltenham Festival runners are 0-52 so far

ROYAL VACATION comes via a Novice Handicap
That puts him in an unsafe place statistically
He needs to improve but he does have positives

BELLSHILL comes here after a poor run when falling
Foolish to rule him out given his trainer
But not easy to feel confident after last time

ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS has the best profile
Last time out 7yo winner with a recent run score well
They won in 2007 2008 2009 2011 2014 2016
Not completely sure how far we can rely on him
Neither trainer or jockey have had a festival winner
So I am going to build some safety around the bet

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS 6/1

£2.00 Win Bet MIGHT BITE 7/2

£1.00 Win Bet BELLSHILL 9/1

£1.00 Win Bet ROYAL VACATION 11/1






C h e l t e n h a m 14:50

5/1 Tombstone, 8/1 Peregrine Run, 8/1 Tin Soldier, 9/1 Modus
10/1 Automated, 12/1 Hargam, 14/1 River Frost, 16/1 Kalondra
16/1 Mister Miyagi, 16/1 Old Guard, 16/1 Scoir Mear, 16/1 Supasundae
16/1 Taquin Du Seuil, 25/1 Bravissimo, 25/1 Hawk High
25/1 Sure Reef, 25/1 Waxies Dargle, 25/1 Who Dares Wins
33/1 Allblak Des Places, 33/1 Carrig Cathal, 33/1 Leoncavallo
33/1 Monksland, 33/1 Morello Royale, 33/1 Robinshill
33/1 Thomas Hobson, 40/1 The Romford Pele.

The Coral Cup

Too Difficult so dropping it
Raising the white flag
I will not get you the winner

I would Not have selected TOMBSTONE though
Very sexy favourite taking a drop in class
Just not sure I would want to rely on him

I know horses from 2m races
That race within the last month
Have a 0-21 record in this race

If we look at the Handicap Hurdles here since 2005
That are Listed and Graded races at the Festival
This race.
The County Hurdle
The Pertemps

Horses from Graded Hurdle races (Non Handicap)
Have never won any of them
Dozens have tried and none have won
Not since Monkerhostin won this race 14 years ago
TOMBSTONE is therefore ignored

Now I am thinking Hang on a second
Some other big players fail the same angle
PEREGRINE RUN fails it at 9/1
TIN SOLDIER fails it at 10/1
The 1st 2nd 3rd favourites have the same problem
So too do the following horses

Old Guard - The Romford Pele - Mister Miyagi
Bravissimo - Thomas Hobson - Supasundae
I could not bet any horse I have mentioned
I couldn't bet MODUS either
Not with the absence/weight combination
TAQUIN DU SEUIL comes from a Chase
That is a statistical No Go area in these races
I don't want HAWK HIGH with a run this season

Now I seem to be drawn into the race
Something I promised I would not do

This is my speculative shortlist

RIVER FROST 33/1
ALLBLAK DES PLACES 40/1
CARRIG CATHAL 40/1
KALONDRA 20/1
SCOIR MEAR 20/1
HARGAM 16/1
AUTOMATED 16/1


No idea from here
If you spray a few minimum stake bets on
Don't rule out 40/1 chance Carrig Cathal
Gordon Elliot and the fittest horse in the race !
But certainly no selection of any confidence
Just spray a few penny's around that don't hurt






C h e l t e n h a m 3.30

Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) 2m

2/7 Douvan, 13/2 Fox Norton, 11/1 God´s Own
16/1 Special Tiara, 25/1 Garde La Victoire, 25/1 Top Gamble
33/1 Sir Valentino, 33/1 Traffic Fluide, 50/1 Simply Ned
66/1 Sizing Granite.

The Champion Chase
DOUVAN should hack up bar a fall
The best we can do is look for the next best

Normally I oppose horses with 14 + Chase runs
Recent winners had the following Chase starts
16 9 11 7 7 9 13 12 8 9 8
The 10 year old legend Sprinter Sacre
Rocked up last year as a 10yo with 16 Chase runs
And won with more than 14 Chase runs
I am going to stay with that statistic
On the grounds that Sprinter Sacre was a legend
So I see these horses as vulnerable

GOD´S OWN has 18 Chase starts
SIMPLY NED has 21 Chase starts
SIR VALENTINO has 19 Chase starts
SPECIAL TIARA has 22 Chase starts
TOP GAMBLE has 14 Chase starts

I don't want to be with the above horses
Look at the absences of past winners
They were absent the following days
80 53 53 46 53 45 45 53 33 32 54 45 32 38 95 39 53 35 18
17 of the last 19 winners ran within 54 days

All 19 ran within 95 days
GOD´S OWN has problems absent 102 days
I hate TRAFFIC FLUIDE's preparation
SIZING GRANITE is underaced and hard to like
That leaves 2 horses
Who I see as the main dangers to Douvan

GARDE LA VICTOIRE
FOX NORTON

Selection

Without The Favourite Market

Betting without Douvan

£8.50 Win Bet FOX NORTON 9/4-5/2

£1.50 Win Bet GARDE LA VICTOIRE 8/1






C h e l t e n h a m 4.10

Glenfarclas Chase (Cross Country Chase)
(Class 2) (5YO plus) 3m 6f+

5/2 Cantlow, 3/1 Cause Of Causes, 7/1 Auvergnat
12/1 Quantitativeeasing, 14/1 Alelchi Inois, 14/1 Any Currency
14/1 Bless The Wings, 14/1 Sausalito Sunrise, 16/1 First Lieutenant
16/1 Usuel Smurfer, 20/1 Colour Squadron, 20/1 Kingswell Theatre
25/1 Third Intention, 25/1 Valadom, 33/1 Ballyboker Bridge
66/1 Amazing Comedy.


Cross Country Chase over 3m 7f

This is only the second year this is not a handicap
So reluctant to use any standard angles
There is a Cross Country angle I have been using
It will let me down one day but has not so far

Cheltenham Cross Country races
44 races since 1998 all year round
The vast majority went to horses with recent runs
Horses aged 11 or more won 14 of these races
14 winners aged 11 or more had the following absences
20 37 9 28 28 28 28 28 29 33 17 22 13 19

The longest absence any horse aged 11 + had
Was 37 days
Even the great Spot Thedifference never managed it
So I am opposing horses aged 11 or more
Who have not raced in the previous 37 days
I think we have to apply some common sense
Some flexibility and allow for a few days longer

QUANTITATIVEEASING is 12 absent 135 days
I can't accept that absence in this race
ANY CURRENCY is 14 years old absent 46 days
None aged 11 or more have won with that absence
In any Cheltenham Cross Country race

COLOUR SQUADRON is 11 and absent 38 days
Absent longer than any horse his age
He only just fails this angle but he does fail it
He has only had 1 Cross Country race before
He was favourite but well beaten in IT
Not the biggest of horses he doesn't appeal much

FIRST LIEUTENANT is 12 absent 38 days
Looks far too unreliable these days

THIRD INTENTION makes no appeal
USUEL SMURFER is rated too low
VALADOM is rated too low
Both would be far better off in a handicap

SAUSALITO SUNRISE has disappointed this season
If he has been saved for this race
Then you would give him a chance
But unless that is why he has struggled this year
You would expect him to struggle again today

ALELCHI INOIS is not inspiring

AUVERGNAT is only a 7yo
None have won this race yet
His sire only has a stamina index of 8.1f
When he won over 3 miles last time
It was the furthest any of his sires offspring have won over
His age and stamina demands put me off him
But he is one I could easily get wrong

Shortlist

BLESS THE WINGS is 12 absent 48 days
He does technically fail my age/absence statistics
But only by a few days and want to forgive him that
Because in this race last year
BLESS THE WINGS was 2nd with a 95 day absence
He was only beaten a length and failed the same stat then
Half the absence this year may just get him home

CANTLOW is 12 and absent 46 days
He also fails my age absence statistic
But with flexibility I think we should include him

CAUSE OF CAUSES looks a big runner
He may not have raced in a Cross Country race before
But he has been schooled over the course
He did win at the Festival in a handicap last year

Selection

£3 Each Way BLESS THE WINGS 14/1

£2 Win Bet CAUSE OF CAUSES 4/1

£2 Win Bet CANTLOW 100/30






Cheltenham 4:50

Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
(Grade 3) 2m ½f

11/2 Divin Bere, 6/1 Long Call, 8/1 Domperignon Du Lys
9/1 Dreamcatching, 10/1 Dolos, 12/1 Project Bluebook
14/1 Dakota Moirette, 14/1 Prospectus, 20/1 Dino Velvet, 20/1 Fidux
20/1 Flying Tiger, 20/1 Icario, 20/1 Nietzsche, 20/1 Poker Play
20/1 Rainbow Dreamer, 25/1 Diable De Sivola, 25/1 Fadas
25/1 Linger, 25/1 Percy Street, 33/1 Dodgybingo
33/1 Zig Zag, 40/1 Candy Burg.

This is a 4 year old Handicap Hurdle
There are 12 renewals of this race
No similar races elsewhere in March

This is obviously a nightmare race
Last year a Statbuster won

In the previous renewals
Horses absent longer than 32 days were 0-104

Then last year we had a winner with a long absence
Who had just French form and just 3 runs

I think I would still be wary about horses with absences
When they are exposed or have problems in other areas
DIVIN BERE is a good example of this
I would not touch him with 61 days off and Topweight
No horse has won this race off his current rating

PROJECT BLUEBOOK has a similar problem
I am put off by his weight and absence
His numbers suggest he is not well treated

I am taking the following out with absences
POKER PLAY - LINGER - ZIG ZAG - CANDY BURG
RAINBOW DREAMER too exposed for his absence
DODGYBINGO has the same problem
Horses from Maiden Hurdles need opposing
ICARIO does this and he is rejected

No past winners came from Handicaps
NIETZSCHE and DINO VELVET have this problem
Some of the bottomweights should lack the class
These horses just don't have big enough numbers
PERCY STREET - FADAS
DIABLE DE SIVOLA doesn't offer enough
FIDUX didn't do enough last time
FLYING TIGER did not do enough either

DOLOS - Profile nothing special
Can't rule him out but plenty of weight


Shortlist

DREAMCATCHING came good last time
His numbers are worryingly low though
Racing Post Hurdle ratings of 114 95 112
Yet he has a handicap mark of 131 today

LONG CALL - Can't be ruled out
I don't like his last run or connections

PROSPECTUS has enough to shortlist

DAKOTA MOIRETTE is shortlistable

DOMPERIGNON DU LYS has a good profile
Any last time out winner lightly raced does

Selection

£1.50 Each Way DOMPERIGNON DU LYS 11/1
£1.50 Each Way DREAMCATCHING 14/1
£1.00 Each Way LONG CALL 8/1
£1.00 Win DAKOTA MOIRETTE 20/1
£1.00 Win PROSPECTUS 25/1





Cheltenham 5:30

Weatherbys Champion Bumper
(Standard Open NH Flat Race)
(Grade 1) 2m ½f

4/1 Carter Mckay, 7/1 Western Ryder, 8/1 Cause Toujours
8/1 Someday, 9/1 Debuchet, 10/1 Fayonagh, 10/1 Next Destination
14/1 West Coast Time, 16/1 Bakmaj, 20/1 Quick Grabim
25/1 Imperial Eloquence, 25/1 Irish Roe, 33/1 Better Getalong
33/1 Claimantakinforgan, 33/1 Perfect Harmony, 50/1 Copernicus
50/1 Dans Le Vent, 50/1 Mountain Rock, 50/1 My Mate Mark
50/1 Nelson´s Touch, 50/1 Robin The Raven, 100/1 And The New
100/1 Fisherman Frank.

The Bumper

I really am going to have to guess

CARTER MCKAY has the best Numbers
He has the most experience as well
That was the combination last years winner had
So I would shortlist him
Much as you can knock his form

The last 6 winners had 4 2 3 3 3 2 runs
Not overkeen about betting once raced horses
Over the years they do occasionally pop up
Cue Card was the last to do it in 2010
He was obviously top class
But as a general rule I'd rather look elsewhere

NEXT DESTINATION has 1 run
I don't see his sire as safe either
CAUSE TOUJOURS is rejected with 1 run
I am against DEBUCHET
Not for me as a 4yo with a 107 R.P.Rating

WESTERN RYDER - Not convinced
122 Racing Post Rating after 4 runs
Should he not have done more after 4 runs
CARTER MCKAY has a 131 RPR after 4 runs
Last years winner had a 137 RPR after 4 runs
WESTERN RYDER is not my choice
WEST COAST TIME - Don't see enough

Possibles

CARTER MCKAY has to be shortlisted
FAYONAGH is a Kalanisi Mare
There must be safer options but can't be ruled ut
BAKMAJ can't be ruled out
SOMEDAY has positives

I can only guess

I am going Place Only CARTER MCKAY
I think his positives entitle him to place
That is my main saver in the race
There are 2 other savers
And a 9/1 win bet for the glory

£4 Win Bet SOMEDAY 9/1

£4 PLACE bet CARTER MCKAY 6/4

£1 Win Bet FAYONAGH 12/1

£1 Win Bet BAKMAJ 14/1

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