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Quite a busy Thursday message
8 Previews and behind schedule
3 days of Cheltenham coming up
This one a mad rush to finish


Today's Racing

Todays Best Bet

Clonmel 1.20

Finding Touch 7/1

Each Way


8 Previews but it's really just 7
Non runner has killed the 3.25pm
That was a bet I'd have highlighted


Southwell 12.40
Quite Moment 7/2
Each Way

I did the race last night
Left her off the shortlist
Looked again this morning
Watching her I warmed to her
My angles still say No
So prepared to be wrong here
But I've had a small bet


Clonmel 1.20
Finding Touch 7/1
Each Way

This is not an easy race at all
Some powerful trainer/owners
JP McManus owns my selection
He also owns my best negative
You bet his horses at your peril
I'd limit stakes because of that
And because of staking dilemmas


Clonmel 3.55

£5.50 Win Bet Allardyce 3/1
£4.50 Win Bet Warlike Intent 10/11

Bumper race without conditions
The Market's forced staking changes
Should be three runners involved
I had this pair 1st and 2nd choices
So staking it not to lose if either win



Chelmsford 6.25

£2.50 Each Way Avon Green 10/1
£2.50 Each Way Swift Fox 10/1

5f Nursery
Ideally I'd like one to pull out
This pair look very good value
Wasn't sure how to stake them
The weak market is a curse too
Only need 1 to place for a return
I don't know how strong they are
Or which I prefer most of the pair
It does feel quite a clever bet
Been here before with similar bets
They either drift or collapse in price


Todays Best Bet

Clonmel 1.20

Finding Touch 7/1

Each Way


Chelmsford 6.25 is my favourite bet
But it is a bit complicated
The weak market worries me
So despite my angles sceptical
I am going for a harder race



W e d n e s d a y s R e v i e w

The message was accurate yesterday
It finished W W W P which was pleasant
The best bet was the only one beaten
We did get some place money returned
MIND'S EYE started us off winning well
Some will have happily got the early 11/4
Some will seen he was only 2/1 and left it
Many do not like betting at 5/2 each way
OSCI MOSCO was a short price winner
EMISSAIRE was an excellent bit of work
Even if it was down to partial guesswork
RARE GROOVE each way was a best bet
Beat everything but an unfancied outsider
Good unbeaten message with 3 winners


PROFILES & PREVIEWS


SOUTHWELL 12.40

4/1 Quiet Moment, 5/1 Mach One,
11/2 Break The Silence, Monsieur Jimmy,
7/1 Noble Ballad, 9/1 Anastazia, 12/1 Luath,
12/1 True Colors, Wardy, 16/1 Appleberry,
20/1 Luna Magic, 25/1 Secret Glance,
33/1 Scent Of Power, 50/1 Tilly Devine.

8f Handicap

Low Graded race
Rejected several on their profiles
Such as WARDY on his inexperience
APPLEBERRY going from 5f to 8f
I came up with the following shortlist

MACH ONE
MONSIEUR JIMMY
ANASTAZIA
QUIET MOMENT

QUIET MOMENT interests me most
He won well at Ayr two runs ago
Not long before that he upgraded stables
No surprise at all his form then improved
He failed to follow up at Southwell next time
But I think the winner stole the race
Drawn wide He gave him an easy lead
QUIET MOMENT motored home
Although easily beaten by an improver
Who was allowed first run on him
QUIET MOMENT pulled well clear of 3rd

It bothers me it was a 3yo handicap
That does weaken his profile
The flaws in QUIET MOMENT's profile
Are placed by the upgrade in stable
His Momentum and watching his last run

Selection

QUIET MOMENT 7/2

Each Way






SOUTHWELL 1.15

11/8 She's Royal, 5/2 The Jungle Vip,
6/1 Ipcress File, 8/1 Goldfox Girl,
10/1 German Bight, 16/1 Mischievous Rock,
33/1 Amity Island, 33/1 Molliana

7f Novice Auction Stakes for 2yo's
My hands are tied statistically
They suggest I oppose unraced horses
September to December over any distance
Unraced horses in these races are 1-37
THE JUNGLE VIP is unraced
Has to give weight to experienced horses
Whilst those do not look very good
THE JUNGLE VIP was onlya £4k purchase
GERMAN BRIGHT is also unraced

SHE'S ROYAL does have positives
She ran above herself last time
Almost enough to be automatic selection
As a filly with 3 runs getting weight
But don't like she is an undersized filly here
And that she started 66/1 in her last race
Her sires runners are 0-8 here
I am playing it this way
Siding with an experienced horse
Who may have improvement

Selection

IPCRESS FILE 9/2

Each Way








CLONMEL 1.20

5/2 Pat's Oscar, 4/1 Feeling The Love,
6/1 Chateauneuf Du Pap, 7/1 Daisy Chicks,
8/1 Finding Touch, Killahara Castle,
10/1 Poker Party, 14/1 Pump Road,
16/1 Perfect Leader, 20/1 Mister First,
25/1 Not Touch.

Handicap hurdle around 2m3f-2m3f

FEELING THE LOVE is the one to avoid
She is a 4yo filly with 3 runs

Handicap Hurdles since 2008
September to December
Any distance
Any Class
Fillies aged 4
Under 5 lifetime starts
Have a 0-71 record
FEELING THE LOVE has 3 runs
I can't bet her because of that

DAISY CHEEKS is an inexperienced filly
She doesn't offer enough
There is a lot of dead wood in the race
PUMP ROAD hasn't set the game alight
PERFECT LEADER didn't offer enough

KILAHARA CASTLE is a mare
Coming up in trip from 2m not ideal

CHATEAUNEUF DU PAP is unsafe
No surprised if he plays a part and wins
But from a 2m hurdle as a 5yo
His profile is not like a winner

PAT'S OSCAR is hard to read
Critical on some parts of her profile
Such as an older mare absent 50 days
But could take a big leap forward
From a top class stable after a win

FINDING TOUCH has a solid profile
It was either each way
Or with Pat's Oscar as a saver

Selection

FINDING TOUCH 7/1

Each Way




SOUTHWELL 1.45

4/1 Piazon, Treaty Of Rome, 8/1 Arzaak,
8/1 Dungannon, Midnight Malibu, 10/1 Razin' Hell,
12/1 Bosham, Gnaad, 14/1 Musharrif
16/1 Crosse Fire, 20/1 Mujassam,
25/1 Zapper Cass, 50/1 Alpha Tauri.

5f Handicap
Open race in a big field

DUNGANNON is 10 absent 158 days
July To February
5f handicaps in any class
Horses aged 10 or more
Absent more than 91 days
Have a 0-57 record since 1997

ALPHA TAURI looks unfit & badly drawn
Southwell 5f Handicaps
Class 5 or higher since 2005
Horses drawn 13 or higher
Have a 0-44 record all year round
PIAZON drawn 14 also has this problem
Not keen on BOSHAM's age/absence
ZAPPER CLASS doesn't offer enough
GNAAD is a 3yo absent 67 days
Felt he is too exposed to overcome that
Horses coming from 7f races are 0-23
MUJASSAM has that problem
RAZIN' HELL is absent too long
CROSSE FIRE is currently resistible
MIDNIGHT MALIBU is a 4yo filly
I did find 1 winner like her
She is not a negative but not shortlisted
No track form reduces her chance

Shortlist

ARZAAK 7/1
TREATY OF ROME 5/1
MUSHARRIF 8/1

No strong preference either way
The recent run got it for him

Selection

Small Stakes
Dont like the staking/selections much

£3.50 Each Way MUSHARRIF 8/1

£1.50 Win Bet ARZAAK 7/1

£1.50 Win Bet TREATY OF ROME 5/1





SOUTHWELL 2.45

10/11 Take The High Road, 9/4 Haraz,
4/1 Abraj Dubai, 10/1 Charlie's Dreamer,
33/1 Fivos, 50/1 Ejabah, Lady Carduros,
66/1 Ritas Legacy, 150/1 Zarkavon.

7f All Aged Maiden

TAKE THE HIGH ROAD is favourite
Sets the standard on his Irish form
Just not sure how safe he is
John Oxx got rid of him after 2 runs
That would worry me for a 3 year old
He also drops down from 9f to 7f
That may not be straight forward
If you look at 7f races here with 8 + runners
Since 2001 horses drawn 1 or 2
With under 3 run have a 1-49 record
Maybe stall 1 will hurt him as well
Not enough to say he is a negative
But at a short price not convinced
ABRAJ DUBAI is an unraced filly
Unraced 3yo's are 1-35 in similar races
But if we look only at Southwell results
Unraced horses in all similar races
Any distance from August to December
Have a 0-32 record and I don't want her

CHARLIE'S DREAMER is an option
Needs to improve but could easily do

HARAZ is a 4yo with a 0-28 record
That would put a lot of people off
So would not having any form here
But he is fit and running consistently
It looks hard to keep him out of the frame
The trouble is now 9/4 and maybe shorter
That significantly reduces my interest
I wanted 5/2 each way

Selection

HARAZ 9/4






CLONMEL 3.25

Evs Roaring Bull, 6/4 Hardline,
9/1 Flemenstar, 16/1 Cash In Mind,
20/1 Sound Money, 33/1 Trade Marked,
100/1 Carrigeen Acebo.

Hurdle race
Strange conditions type race
Either for horses with no hurdle wins
Or one very cheap hurdle win
Very hard to find similar races
What few I have steep me one way
No 4yo for example has won one
With under 3 hurdle runs
ROARING BULL has that problem

ROARING BULL is 4 with 1 hurdle run
HARDLINE IS 5 with 4 hurdle runs

If we look at their Racing Post Ratings

ROARING BULL has a 126 rating
HARDLINE has 120 128 116 138 ratings

I have to prefer the older horse
With more experience over hurdles

There are complications
Same owner
Same trainer
No surprise there

I think HARDLINE should be favourite
I think he should be too streetwise
Very unclear and luke warm stats agree

Selection

HARDLINE 6/4

Win Bet

Stop Press
HARDLINE is long odds on at 1/3
After Roaring Bull pulled out



CLONMEL 3.55

6/4 Monstrosity, 2/1 Allardyce,
100/30 Warlike Intent, 14/1 Flirting Lesa,
14/1 Play The Dane, 16/1 Smithscorner,
100/1 Michael's Bird.

National Hunt Flat race
Open to hurdlers as well
Whilst you can only guess
Don't see why MONSTROSITY is favourite
Yes he ran 2nd to a good horse
But it matters more what you finish ahead of
That what you finish behind
I preferred his dangers

ALLARDYCE has more experience
Far better numbers as well
WARLIKE INTENT has been well backed
If there is a good horse here it's him

When I finished the race
I was staking it this way
£7 Allardyce 9/4 £3 Warlike Intent 5/2
But prices have changed dramtically
Warlike Intent is now down to 11/10
Now I will split stake them
But Warlike Intent out of the race
Go for the profit on Allardyce
I prefer both to Monstrosity

Selection

£5.50 Win Bet ALLARDYCE 3/1

£4.50 Win Bet WARLIKE INTENT 11/10




CHELMSFORD 6.25

2/1 Magic Pulse, 3/1 Just For The Craic,
7/2 100/30 Blessed To Empress, 9/1 Avon Green,
10/1 Cool Baby, Swift Fox, 20/1 Chizz De Biz,
20/1 Kylie Style, 25/1 Red Snapper.

5f Nursery

If you look at 5f Nurseries
November and December
Any Class of race
Fillies from Handicaps
Under 7 career starts
Have a worrying 1-78 record
Those in this Class (6) were 0-42

Clearly they don't score well
MAGIC PULSE fails these angles
As a filly with 4 runs she is beatable
BLESSED TO EXPRESS is a filly
With 6 runs she fails the same angles
Obviously she is loser to not failing it
But she has another problem
Fillies from handicaps
Absent 29 days or longer
Have a 0-56 record
BLESSED TO EXPRESS has this problem
RED SNAPPER fails this too
As does MAGIC PULSE albeit only just

JUST FOR THE CRAIC won last time
The fact that was as long as 45 days ago
Weakens his profile and with topweight
Others had more to offer

COOL BABY is a filly with 3 runs
Not like a winner but not a negative

AVON GREEN has a decent profile

SWIFT FOX may not stay 6f
That gives him excuses if true for 4 runs
I liked his profile as well

Selection

£2.50 Each Way AVON GREEN 10/1

£2.50 Each Way SWIFT FOX 10/1

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