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0 Account Bet

The last message of the week
Going straight through till Friday
This is the 13th message in a row
Getting stale so need a short one
No Staked Bet today


Today's Message

I feel a bit Stale and off the boil
Probably did too much yesterday
So having a very relaxing day
Should put me right for Monday

I planned to talk about the account
Putting that off for a day of two
Scrapped the planned piece today
Nothing sinister just delaying this

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I could have put any of the 3 bets
up as the best bet of the day. Not
sure which is best so smaller bets
on all 3 rather than one stand out.





Saturday's Review

The worst of starts yesterday
It was a message of two halfs
The first half finished L L L L
The 2nd half went P W W W
It was a very frustrating start
Leicester made me look a mug
Quite an embarrassing scoreline
Star Story was done tactically
Starchitects death was awful
Lost the next Newcastle race
Despite shortlisting the winner
Things only got better later on
TY ROCK BRANDY won easily
The last 3 races all made money
And repaired the earlier damage


PROFILES & PREVIEWS


CHELMSFORD 12.45

5/4 Wicker, 9/4 Narjes, 7/2 Line Of Beauty,
10/1 Lunar Mist, 25/1 Ronni Layne.

All aged maiden over 8f
Fillies race

WICKER has raced 5 times
4 of these were over a mile
Has not convinced she stays this far
She almost stays but just not very well
I prefered to look elsewhere

LINE OF BEAUTY is hardly safe
Dropping down from 1m 3f
Beaten 15 lengths in that race
If I look at maiden races over 8f
Any time of year
Fillies aged 3
Coming from 1m 3f or further
Beaten over 2 lengths last time
Have a very modest 1-72 record
The winner Clive Brittains Teosroyal
LINE OF BEAUTY shares this profile
LUNAR MIST doesn't offer much
NARJES would be my choice
She has a good recent run
If you look at her Racing Post Ratings
She has the best 4 numbers in the race

Selection

NARJES 7/4

Win Bet




THURLES 2.40

2/1 High School Days, 6/1 Dorkas, 8/1 Brave Out,
8/1 Tintown Robin, 10/1 Mallowney, Storm Rising,
12/1 Draycott Place, 14/1 Carrigmoorna Matt,
14/1 Realt Mor, 20/1 Mister Hotelier
25/1 Kick On Boss.

2m Handicap Hurdle

Want to go each way against the favourite
HIGH SCHOOL DAYS is a filly aged 4
She comes here from a Novice Hurdle
In all 2m Handicap Hurdles in December
Run in Class 6 or higher
Fillies aged 4 had a modest 1-50 record
That winner did not come from a Novice race
In a big field happy to take this horse on

MALLOWNET is 11 absent 766 days
KICK ON BOSS is 11 absent 216 days
I would be surprised if either won this

DORKAS didn't strike me as safe enough
She is also a female but comes from a chase
She also has to drop 6f in distance as well
BRAVE OUT also comes down 6f in distance
CARRIGMOORNA has a horrible profile
Thrashed in a Chase just 8 days ago
REALT MOR's profile is not much better
MISTER HOTELIER doesn't offer enough
If I look at 4 year olds in these races
Over 12 career starts
Over 4 hurdle starts
Absent more than 22 days
There is a 0-63 record with this profile
STORM RISING has this profile

Shortlist


DRAYCOTT PLACE has a chance
Not sure if he can win this off 120
He hasn't won a hurdle race since 2014
But I find some of the topweights wrong
And can argue he is one of the classiest

TINTOWN ROBIN looks the safest choice
In form and has a recent race
His Racing Post Ratings
Consistently outscore his handicap mark
Take away the mare that beat her last time
He was 25 lengths ahead of the third horse

Selection

£4.50 Each Way TINTOWN ROBIN 4/1

£1.00 Win Bet DRAYCOTT PLACE 11/1






THURLES 3.10

15/8 Dom Dolo, 3/1 Call It Magic,
7/2 Laverteen, 7/1 Ben Brody, 9/1 Chatham Street Lad
16/1 Cluan Dara, 20/1 Turasoir.

Novice Hurdle over 3m
7 runners
3 of them fail the same angle

October November December
Novice Hurdles over 3m +
There are 166 of these races
Horses from 2m 1f or shorter
Have a 0-98 record

LAVERTEEN has this 0-98 profile
He was beaten 18 lengths last time
That was over 2 miles and just 14 days ago
It just smells like an unsafe profile
CHATAM STREET LAD has this 0-98 profile
With just 2 career starts he's unconvincing
CLUAN DARA also fails this 0-98 statistic
TURASOIR is wrong as a 4yo filly
Hammered last time out
I think one of three should win

DOM DOLO is a 4 year old with 2 runs
Male 4 year olds
Under 3 career starts
Have a 3-48 record
None of thee won last time out
DOM DOLO is a mild positive for me
But his profile is not quite like a winner
And on Heavy ground like this
Not sure I'd want such inexperience
Will he stay this far anyway
His sires only had 1 winner past 2 miles
That was over 2m 6f

CALL IT MAGIC has the ability
He has been chasing though
Hard to read his profile because of that
I like his experience though
Don't doubt he has the ability to win

BEN BRODY is interesting
Ran well in a recent handicap hurdle
I like his profile and chance

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet CALL IT MAGIC 9/4

£2.00 Win Bet BEN BRODY 6/1






FUTURE BETTING ANGLES

I want to look at some Cheltenham races
Get a head start for the 2018 Festival
This is based on Racing Post Ratings


What previous winners achieved
By January 1st in the year they won

The idea here being
We should be able to take any horse
See what he has achieved so far
And compare them to past winners


Supreme Novice Hurdle

Mengli Khan (6/1) Samcro (16) Debuchet (20)
Getabird (20) Reel Steel (20) Sayar (20) Sharjah (20)
Slate House (20) Bullionaire (25)
Claimantakinforgan (25) Daphne Du Clos (25)
Demon Daunou (25) Diese Des Bieffes (25)
Francin (25) Kalashnikov (25)

Recent winners

Their Racing Post Ratings

On or before January 1st

In the season they won the race

2017 Labaik 126 143 0 0
2016 Altior 136 148 146 157
2015 Douvan 105 116 143
2014 Vautour 111 116 140
2013 Champagne Fever 130 150
2012 Cinders + Ashes 99 113 120
2011 Al Ferof 123 138


MENGLI KHAN is currently the 6/1 favourite
His Racing Post Hurdle ratings
Are 116 123 126 143 149
He has done a 149 best rating so far

Thats more than Labaik in 2017 (his best 143)
More than DOUVAN managed in 2016 (his best 143)
More than Vautour as well in 2014 (his best 140)

That tells me MENGLI KHAN
Should be seen as a potential winner
As he has done more already
Then 3 of the last 4 winners have

His trainer says he is top class
Says he will stay at 2 miles
He is due to run on Welsh National day
He is currently 8/11 to win that race
He could easily win and improve his numbers then

SAMCRO has a 147 rating
Thats good enough as well
But he will probably run in another race

EARLY DOORS has done 115 131 144
As he has done more already
Then 3 of the last 4 winners have
EARLY DOORS is also a current positive
LE RICHEBOURG has a 140 rating


I would want at least a 140 rating
The following horses do not have that

GETABIRD has only managed a 138
SLATE HOUSE has also got a 138 rating
SAYAR has only done a 133 rating
DEBUCHET only a 125 rating
He has not been seen out this season
BULLIONAIRE has the same profile
SHARJAH only has a 136 rating

REEL STEEL only has a 128 rating
He is running Welsh National Day

December 27th

The Future Champions Novice Hurdle

MENGLI KHAN is 8/11 in this race
REEL STEEL is 3/1 second favourite
REEL STEEL is 7/2 third favourite

After this race
I will check the Numbers again
And do a 2nd update in the Supreme Novices

But at this stage

MENGLI KHAN has achieved enough

His Racing Post Rating of 149
Is better than 3 of the last 4 winners
Which includes Douvan and Vautour

It is better than SAMCRO's best 147 rating
And he is 15/8 to win the 2m 5f festival race
He is 5lbs clear of his nearest rival in this race
So to me 6/1 seems quite a reasonable price

What price will he be
If he wins his next race in 10 days time ?

Too early for a selection
But I have had a bit of 6/1
Not enough to hurt if he doesn't run
But just so I don't miss this early price

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