0 Account Bet
0 Negative
4 Previews

4 Previews today
The message has suffered disruptions
It has meant the message lacks beauty
Ugly looking thing but could still be effective
The disruption is explained later on
It has killed any chance of a staked
I will try for one tomorrow


Today's Bet

No Staked Bet



T o d a y s M e s s a g e


Not a significant top of the message

The new Racing Post Website is coming soon
It was forced on me for most of yesterday
It felt a completely different experience

When this is forced upon us permanently
It will take a lot of getting used to
It will slow me so corners will have to be cut
It is going to take some time to master
Until my eyes get used to the new fonts and formats

I could not trust anything I was reading
It slowed me down dramatically last night
Which is why today's effort is very scrappy


I also had a strange dream last night
I am going to have to tell you about it tomorrow
It involves the Supreme Novice Hurdle
And exposed a worrying Gap in my knowledge


Anyway onto today
4 previews
I could stand by any of the 4 previews
I could take selections in any of them
And mix them up with each other
And that is exactly what I have done

Not a day of much significance

Today's Best bet is just cobbled together

The previews are all similar strengths today




Today's Best Bet

Ludlow 3.05 - WESTEND STORY 6/4

Doncaster 2.10 - CHARMING ZEN 11/8

Each Way Double





Daily Negatives
No Official Negatives
31 correct bets from 45




Cheltenham Gold Cup

You will probably already know that yesterday
it was announced that THISTLECRACK does
not run and is out because of a tendon injury.

The last time I had a look at this race
I said NATIVE RIVER each way was the bet
He is now shorter available only at 3/1
That may or may not be an option on the day
3/1 each way a quarter the odds may still appeal

NATIVE RIVER is 3/1 each way
With a run and a Quarter the odds a place 1,2,3
With Betfred Tote and Boyles
There are going to be a lot worse bets than that
But I need to do some work in other areas
Before I commit to any bet in this race

I will be opposing CUE CARD though
First of all he is 11 years old
The last 11yo winner was back in 1969
It is 48 years since a horse as old as him won
And my breeding stats fail him as well
For all the hundreds of winners his sire has had
None have been over this far in this class before
CUE CARD will not be winning in my view





T u e s d a y ' s S u m m a r y


Short message yesterday
Kept it tight with just two previews
Nothing back from the Southwell preview
We shortlisted the eventual 1st 5th 6th 7th
Our Saver Log Off drew fierce criticism
Several felt he was not there to win the race
Shortlisted but rejected the winner so got it wrong
My best bet was at Taunton
Cajun Fiddle each way placed in 3rd
The saver was second as well
No real damage just a bit of lost shrapnel





P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s


P u n c h e s t o w n 1.55

10/11 Knockmaole Boy, 9/4 Agent Boru, 7/1 Mr Showtime
8/1 Beginningtogetup, 10/1 Geneva Barracks
20/1 Bench Marker, 33/1 Colwinston, 40/1 Pat´s Pearl
50/1 Kilfenora, 50/1 Novano, 50/1 Royal Roslea
66/1 Barna Venture, Don´t Let Go, 66/1 Get It Back
66/1 Romantic, 100/1 Loughview Laddie
100/1 Urban Classic, 100/1 Wilton Star.

2m Maiden Hurdle

KNOCKMAOLE BOY sets the standard
Decent hurdles debut but it was only 18 days ago
I ran his profile and it was very modest
Similar 5 year olds with 1 hurdle run
Running within a month
More than 7 runs on the Flat
Similar horses had a 1-30 record
I want better than that given his price

MR SHOWTIME has a weak profile
He has raced just once over hurdles
That was just too close for comfort 11 days ago
Horses aged 5
1 hurdle run
Running within 2 weeks
Coming from a 2m hurdle
2 or more career starts
Have a 0-76 record in similar races

BEGINNINGTOGETUP is unraced
Could pop up but surely others are far safer
GENEVA BARRACKS wouldn't be 11st choice
The sires hurdlers are 0-20 on softer than good

AGENT BORU looks as good an option as any
2nd best on the numbers
More experience than most with chances

Selection

AGENT BORU 3/1

He is the selection in the race
You could have a win bet
You could have an each way bet
If you don't mind burglary bets
You could also have a split stake bet
£5 on KNOCKMAOLE BOY 11/10
£5 on AGENT BORU 3/1
It would buy the favourite out of the race
It would allow us to get AGENT BORU at evens
With the favourite taken care of
Plenty of Staking options






L u d l o w 2.00 + 3.05

Ludlow 2.00 - RIDGEWAY FLYER 9/4
Ludlow 3.05 - WESTEND STORY 6/4
Each Way Double

Decided to lump these two races together
I got a bit fed up of both races
In the Ridgeway Flyer race
I have a Negative for Lexington Law 4/1
4 year olds with no National Hunt runs
But 2 or more flat runs have a 0-43 record
Royal Reserve has a lot to prove as well
There are complications here though
Bobo Mac having his first run for a new stable
I like RIDGEWAY FLYER with 1 concern
He is not the biggest of horses
So in a big field I am a bit concerned about that
But he did well enough on a stiffer track last time

I like WESTERN STORY
I think he is the most likely winner
But with an unraced danger I can't rule out
He is a natural candidate for an each way double

Ludlow 2.00 - RIDGEWAY FLYER 9/4
Ludlow 3.05 - WESTEND STORY 6/4
Each Way Double




D o n c a s t e r 2.10

11/10 Charming Zen, 2/1 Apasionado
7/2 Mister Whitaker 14/1 Bomber Command, The Grinder
50/1 Silent Encore 66/1 Super Charge, 100/1 Arctic Chief
100/1 Psychocandy, 200/1 Sir Luke Arno.

2m Novice Hurdle
Looked at all similar races in February

3 main runners
I don't include BOMBER COMMAND
He was well beaten recently
He fails an interesting statistic
MISTER WHITAKER fails the same angle

Horses aged 5
1 Hurdle run
Coming from 2m 3f or shorter
Running in the last 3 weeks
Beaten last time out
Horses with this profile have a 0-96 record

BOMBER COMMAND fails this profile
MISTER WHITAKER also fails it
And that is why I am not betting him each way
Much as the market tempts us towards him

I think this is a match

APASIONADO v CHARMING ZEN
Both hard to read
APASIONADO last seen 82 days ago
That was in a Graded race over 2m 4f
I can find a winner like him
My only problem with APASIONADO
Is that he is sired by Mamool a stayer
Most of the sires hurdle winners are over further
APASIONADO is the only horse sired by Mamool
Who has won short of 2m 4f
Those wins came early season in weak races
Just not convinced the drop in trip will suit

CHARMING ZEN has ran once in France
Impossible to rate accurately
If I look at similar 5 year olds
You can divide them into 2 categories
Those that are fancied and those that are not
Those starting under 4/1 as he will do
Have a 5-8 record in similar races
CHARMING ZEN cost 210,000 Euros
If you look at all his sires National Hunt runners
And the Racing Post Ratings they all returned
CHARMING ZEN is officially the highest rated
And he managed that on the back of one French run
So I am beginning to warm to his chance
Obviously if you have the each way double
You will bring extra safety into your bet
But not really in the mood for that
I think he is probably a decent horse
And I don't see one I can prefer

Selection

CHARMING ZEN 11/8

Win Bet





L i n g f i e l d 3.55

11/4 Mitigate, 4/1 Havelock, 4/1 Swilly Bay
5/1 Arctic Sea, 7/1 Road To Dubai
66/1 Akuna Mattatta, 66/1 King Otto
66/1 Noreena, 66/1 Tilly´s Bridge.

This is a 7f Maiden race for 3yo +
There should be 5 potential winners
I have a problem with some of them

MITIGATE comes from a 5f race
I have a serious problem with that
7f Maiden Races
Run all year round
Horses aged 3
Coming from a 5f race that year
Absent more than 6 days
Have a 0-98 record
MITIGATE is a filly doing this
I think she is too risky

If I look at Male 3 year olds
One career start
Running within the last 3 months
Beaten more than 5 lengths last time
There is a 0-41 record with similar horses
SWILLY BAY has this problem
Beaten over 9 lengths last time
He did not do enough last time out

ARCTIC SEA has a chance
Down in trip and profile manageable
Just hard to rely on this particular trainer

ROAD TO DUBAI has a chance
I don't think he stayed 8f on his debut
He dropped down in trip last time out
Improved his numbers and is a player
Depends on how fit he is after 88 days off

HAVELOCK is a positive
Nice big type who offers experience
He might have bounced last time out
My main problem with him is his last 2 runs
His last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 61 and 65
Neither of those are going to be good enough
His 4 numbers are 78 76 61 65
I think it will take around a 78 to win this
So he needs to up his game
That said he has excuses
2 runs ago his Racing Post Rating was 61
He probably needed the race
It was his first run in 8 months
Lats time there is a menu of excuses
I raised the possibility last time he bounced
He may have gone off too fast as well
He may not have handled Southwell as well
His sire has yet to have a Southwell winner
All in all I feel he should get the benefit of the doubt
HAVELOCK is therefore my selection
I don't know if I can trust him each way though
I am going win only and saver

Selection

£7 Win Bet HAVELOCK 11/4

£3 Win Bet ROAD TO DUBAI 9/4

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