9 Races discussed

0 Staked Bets

Start of Bank Holiday weekend
There are 9 previews today
No particular race takes priority
Not one stand alone headline race
A lot of softer races covered today
There are some handicaps as usual
But calmer races like the maidens
Seem to offer the better opportunities
No Account Bet this Saturday


TODAY'S MESSAGE


9 Previews

Whitbred Gold Cup day

To younger members that's the 3.35 Sandown
The charmlessly named bet365 Gold Cup
I like my selection/staking in that race

£2.50 Each Way Present Man 12/1
£2.50 Each Way Vyta Du Roc 9/1
But I don't know how far I can trust them
And I am not highlighting them


A Faint Heart never won a Fair Maiden

We have some fair Maidens today

Ripon 2.10
Haydock 3.15
Ripon 5.05
Leicester 5.10
Doncaster 6.00

We have had some big price Saturday bets
Quite often recently in certain Grand Nationals
Today the bets I like most are in maidens

That brings different kind of problems

Like Getting on
Prices Crashing
Non runners

So I am not going to stake any account bet
Instead just highlighting the following bets

Haydock 3.15

MAGHFOOR 6/4

Win Bet

Disappointed if he doesn't win
One of his main rivals fails a breeding stat
Between Maghfoor and Briston Missile



Ripon 5.05

MARQOOM 3/1

Each Way

The Odds on favourite has positives
But there is a flaw in his profile
I think we have the best profile
This might look like a burglary bet
But I think he is selection on merit
Any Non runner would mean just 2 places

Doncaster 6.00

FIREFRIGHT 11/4

Each Way

Had 2 Staking options
The favourite is a negative
Should win on paper
But I prefer my other 2 bets more

Todays Best Bet


Ripon 5.05

MARQOOM 3/1

Each Way






FRIDAYS REVIEW

Bitter sweet message yesterday
Officially we had 2 account bets
Technically a winner and a loser
The first bet was an each way double
Started with a winner ended with a non runner
Petit Mouchoir pulled out and didn't run
So that left us with a winning each way single
We will never know what might have happened
The second bet ENNISKILLEN was beaten
I felt he was ridden with too much confidence
And he was hampered twice in the race
But I didn't think that made any difference
The horse just ran a very flat race
The Racing Post say he was badly hampered
But I don't think that explains his poor run
I can only think he had too hard a race last time
That didn't bother him last year
I wouldn't have any other obvious excuse
Incidently ENNISKILLEM runs today
He is 12/1 and in the Punchestown 2.35
Not previewing the race and I doubt he wins
But it would be a cheap way to recover stakes
Maybe throw enough on to get your money back
I was happy enough with the rest of the message
Only had a partial return in the opening preview
Things improved after that
ATTY PERSSE turned out to be a good saver
The MISS NIGHT OWL options worked well
ULYSSES was a good winner beating the danger
Got the last race wrong which was a shame
Bitter Sweet really perhaps just more bitter



PROFILES & PREVIEWS




SANDOWN 1.50

7/2 Call Me Lord, 11/2 Gregarious 6/1 Dolos,
13/2 Hollywood Road, 8/1 Vincent's Forever
10/1 Lambeau Field, 11/1 Fixed Rate
12/1 Hazamar, Landin, 16/1 Fidux, Quids In
20/1 I See You Well.

4yo Handicap Hurdle
File this in the too difficult box

The basic raw angles are these
6 or more lifetime runs
Run within 8 weeks
Coming from either a Handicap
Or coming from a Graded race
Not coming from a Novice race

Didn't like the favourite much
Call Me Lord only has 3 runs
He has the most weight
The second longest absence as well
The combination of those things may hurt him
My stats lead to this vulnerable shortlist

Lambeau Field - Gregarious
Fixed Rate - Fidux - Landin

Didn't like FIXED RATE much
Weak stable are sire as well
Oasis Dream hasn't a hurdle winner in this class
FIDUX has a lot of weight and looks harshly treated
DOLUS comes out best on my breeding stats
So drafting him in as a saver

Selection

Small stakes

Speculative start to the message

£3.00 Each Way LAMBEAU FIELD 11/1

£1.50 Win Bet DOLUS 13/2

£1.50 Win Bet GREGARIOUS 13/2







RIPON 2.10

3/1 Rocket Man Dan, 7/2 Faradays Spark
9/2 Capla Dancer 5/1 Magnus, 7/1 Black Orange
8/1 Mr Wagyu, 12/1 Kyleque 16/1 Revenge
20/1 Kikini Bamalaam 33/1 Aristodemus.

5F Novice for 2 year olds

Just 1 past winner of this and he had 2 runs
In a big Ripon field I would prefer a run

FARADAYS SPARK is unraced
MAGNUS is unraced as well
Facing several horses with experience
Will be a test for both of those
MR WAGYU also unraced and rejected

ROCKET MAN DAN has ran before
Went off too fast in the Brocklesby
Could win this but not keen on his damsire
His Mothers Sire brings endless stamina
Makes me wonder if he has a safe pedigree

CAPLA DANCER has a run
He is drawn in Stall 1
Go back to 2011 and 5f races at Ripon
Horses drawn 1
Under 11 career starts
Had a 0-29 record in the last 7 years
That might not be significant
But it could be and it's not a positive

BLACK ORANGE has 2 runs
Small unimpressive type without much improvement
But the horse that beat him was very smart
He was the best 2yo seen out this year
So there was no real shame in that performance
I'd expect him to grab a place at least with 2 runs
Not impossible he could win as well

I was going to save on Sandytown
He is now a non runner so switching savers

I would have highlighted this bet
If the horse had been bigger physically

Selection

£4 Each Way BLACK ORANGE 6/1

£2 Win Bet ROCKET MAN DAN 11/4





SANDOWN 2.25

7/4 Menorah, 5/2 Traffic Fluide
7/2 Josses Hill, 9/1 Vibrato Valtat
10/1 Art Mauresque
16/1 Third Intention.

Grade 2 Chase over 2m 6f

MENORAH has won the last 3 renewals
Going to have to look elsewhere this year

MENORAH is now a 12 year old
With a 155 day absence he is not safe
He fails this statistic

January to September
Listed and Graded Chases
Both Handicap and Non Handicaps
Any Distance
Horses aged 12
Absent more than 91 days
Have a 0-38 record
MENORAH fails this 0-38 statistic
It illustrates that apart from "early season"
12 year olds don't win these races with absences

That leads us blindly into a messy race
No strong view about the alternative
ART MAURESQUE didn't do enough 10 days ago
THIRD INTENTION is exposed and unconvincing
Going to stake it this way
Make VIBRATO VALTAT the main bet
Throw in 2 savers as well as prices allow
VIBRATO VALTAT loves a tiny field
He is just not reliable enough

Selection

£6 Win Bet JOSSES HILL 4/1

£3 Win Bet TRAFFIC FLUIDE 9/4

£1 Win Bet VIBRATO VALTAT 10/1





HAYDOCK 3.15

7/4 Maghfoor, 2/1 Bristol Missile
9/4 Humble Hero, 14/1 Striker
20/1 Royal Headley.

12f Maiden race

5 runners
1 looks outclassed
2 are unraced
Both from unsafe sires

HUMBLE HERO is unraced
Would rather not have that
If you look at his sire High Chaparral
Look at his record with unraced horses
Those racing over 10f or shorter are 25-354
Those racing over 11f or more are 0-32
None by this sire has won beyond 10f
HUMBLE HERO is therefore rejected

STRIKER is also unraced
His sire has no unraced winners over this far
One of 2 horses should take this
BRISTOL MISSILE with 1 run
MAGHFOOR with 2 runs
Both profiles are encouraging
I prefer MAGHFOOR's with 2 runs
From a safer sire as well

Selection

MAGHFOOR 6/4

Win Bet




RIPON 3.20

11/2 Muntadab, Pipers Note, 8/1 Intisaab
8/1 Out Do, Reputation, 10/1 Above The Rest
8/1 Orion's Bow, Right Touch, Venturous
12/1 George Bowen, 14/1 Distant Past
14/1 Rasheeq, 16/1 Red Pike.

Class 2 Handicap over 6f
50 similar races in April and May

I have checked this angle twice
Seems to be accurate in these races

April and May
Class 2 Handicaps over 6f
Since 2001
Turf only
Horses aged 6 or more
Absent over 131 days
Have a 0-106 record in them
This is a problem for these horses

ABOVE THE REST shares this 0-106 statistic
INTISAAB shares this 0-106 statistic
ORION'S BOW shares this 0-106 statistic
RIGHT TOUCH shares this 0-106 statistic
OUT DO shares this 0-106 statistic

Although technically not failing the above angles
RED PIKE is hard to like with a 116 day absence
DISTANT PIKE has 78 day absence
Not for me off a rating he has never won from before

If you look at the 50 winners
The longest absent winner was 253 days
Horses absent longer were 0-33
VENTUROUS has a 273 day absence
He fails that 0-33 angle and is passed over

RASHEEQ comes from a 5f race
With 1 run this year his profile is weak

REPUTATION
Ran only 10 days ago
Nervous about coming back so quickly
10 days is a short time and he could bounce

Shortlist

PIPERS NOTE has ran this year
That 's fine but it was in a Pattern race
None of the winners came from similar races
But in light of so many wrong older horses
An upgrade in stable
And some big numbers he is interesting

GEORGE BOWEN is 5 with a recent run

MUNTADAB is 5 with a recent run
Both ran in the same race 27 days ago
I needed a run within 18 days
To match them to similar winners
They are positives but only average profiles

Selection

Small Stakes

£7.00 Win Bet PIPERS NOTE 5/1

£2.00 Win Bet MUNTADAB 4/1

£1.00 Win Bet GEORGE BOWEN 8/1







SANDOWN 3.35

4/1 Doing Fine, 13/2 The Druids Nephew
7/1 The Young Master, 7/1 Sugar Baron, 8/1 Just A Par
8/1 Vyta Du Roc, 9/1 Present Man, 12/1 Rock The Kasbah
12/1 Whats Happening, 16/1 Benbens, Le Reve
20/1 Theatre Guide, 25/1 Henllan Harri.

Long Distance Graded Chase
Not one I tend to preview very often
But I like to follow recently discovered angles
Like a need for younger lightly raced horses

Looked at all the usual things
Such as age and fitness
There are always annoying problems I can't solve
Such as DOING FINE's last run at Cheltenham
Just 10 days ago and all 18 from that race have lost

Shortlist

I have no strong onjections to these
Rock The Kasbah
Vyta Du Roc
The Young Master
Sugar Baron
Present Man

PRESENT MAN is interesting
11st 2lbs is a bit more weight than the norm
Horses since 2007 are 1-54 with 11st 1lbs +
But I get a Paul Nicholls and a Presenting
I get a fit horse coming here on a roll
A Horse who on Racing Post Ratings
Has just ran a lifetime best
Recording a figure 10lbs better than his rating
He is a 7yo with 8 Chase starts
The 2016 2014 winners were very similar
Around 12/1 he gets on the staking plan

I will throw in VYTA DU ROC as well
Avoids all the statistical problem areas
He has not had a good season
But because of that looks thrown in off 137
His Racing Post Chase ratings
Are 141 0 147 148 151 151 149 146
Aside from one Cheltenham flop
His numbers comfortably beat his handicap mark
If I stake both of these horses each way
I only need 1 place to break to get a fair bit back

Selection

£2.50 Each Way PRESENT MAN 12/1

£2.50 Each Way VYTA DU ROC 9/1






RIPON 5.05

4/5 Daawy, 5/2 Marqoom, 12/1 Thistimenextyear
12/1 Vindicator, 14/1 Kilowatt, 20/1 Bing Bang Bank
25/1 Jump Around, 50/1 Kelpie Spirit

10f Maiden Race

Not many can win this
THISTIMENEXT YEAR seems fancied
He is unraced
His new trainer has a 8-123 record so far
None though won when unraced (0-12)
I would respect this gamble
As the favourite may not be safe

DAAWY 10/11 ran well 9 days ago
His Racing Post Rating was decent
He should win if repeating that
His trainer has a good record in this race
But his profile has something I don't like
DAAWY has raced only once
And that was 9 days ago

April and May
Maiden races over 9f and 10f
Horses aged 3
1 career run before
Running within 12 days
Horses with this profile have a 1-56 record

The only winner was Father Of Science
He was a blue-blood Aiden O'Brien at Chester
DAAWY fails this 1-56 record
He could still win.
One did just like him after all
But a lot more failed
With that profile and at that price
With a softly framed race
I just rather go each way

MARQOOM has the best profile

April and May
Maiden races over 9f and 10f
Horses aged 3
Dropping from 12f
2 career starts
2 runs this season
Beaten under 10 lengths last time
3 horses had his profile finishing W W 6
Stock market and Strategic Strike did it
MARQOOM looks a solid runner

Selection

MARQOOM 3/1

Each Way







LEICESTER 5.10

11/4 Oasis Charm, 7/2 Mutarabby, 9/2 Splash Around
11/2 Mudajaj, Park Paddocks, 12/1 Caramuru
14/1 The New Master, 20/1 Lord Kitten, Nathan Mayer
33/1 Pinnata, 50/1 Stragar, 100/1 Somes Sound.

10f Maiden race

Have a quick look at the previous race
And the result of the Ripon 5.05

The favourite in that race Daawy
Fails the following statistic

April and May
Maiden races over 9f and 10f
Horses aged 3
1 career run before
Running within 12 days
Horses with this profile have a 1-56 record

OASIS CHARM has the same profile
He fails the same statistic
And I think we should oppose him
Now if Daawy wins the 5.05pm race
Than this weakens the case I am making
But without knowing that right now
I am happy to take OASIS CHARM on

PARK PADDOCKS is rejected
Didn't want an unraced horse drawn 11

Shortlist

MUDAJAJ is also unraced
19 times out of 20 I'd oppose Charlie Hills
But he is a beautifully bred horse
And it would not shock me if he won this
Couldn't trust the trainer but I want a saver

SPLASH AROUND should go well

MUTARABBY looks a solid runner

The obvious problem if we oppose the favourite
Is how many from the shortlist can we stake
The shortlist has 9/4 9/2 7/1 chances
Going to juggle it around this way

£6.00 Win Bet SPLASH AROUND 9/2

£2.50 Win Bet MUTARABBY 5/2

£1.50 Win Bet MUDAJAJ 7/1







DONCASTER 6.00

7/2 Firefright, Gilded Reflection, 4/1 Mokhalad
6/1 Made Of Honour, Mountain Angel, Rubens Dream
14/1 England Expects, 20/1 Akdaar, 50/1 Rip N Roar
100/1 Full Tilt Lad, Kensington Palace
1001 Ruled By The Moon.

7f Maiden race

Could end up with 3 Co Favourites
Don't see any others I can commit too
RUBENS DREAM is unraced
By Dutch Art trainer by Charlie Hills no thanks

MOKHALAD is 4 absent 347 days
GILDED REFECTION a 4yo filly absent 347 days

I would rather have a 3yo
Especially on a Grade 1 track

GILDED REFECTION has to be opposed
April and May
Maiden Races since 2007
Run under 12 furlongs
Fillies aged 4 have a 7-266 record
Those absent more than 34 days were 0-113
GILDED REFECTION fails this 0-113 statistic

MADE OF HONOUR has a chance
Might just fall short of the required standard

FIREFRIGHT is a 3yo
I ran his exact profile
There were 4 horses that shared it
These 4 horses finished W 3 2 8
FIREFRIGHT isn't a bad option
When his 2 main rivals give him weight for age
He offers Racing Post Ratings of 84 81 92 82 82
He won't be far away from winning if repeating that
He was favourite for a Newmarket maiden last time
Has to be the most likely winner

Option 1

FIREFRIGHT 11/4

Each Way


Option 2

£6 Win Bet FIREFRIGHT 11/4
£2 Win Bet MOKHALAD 7/2
£1 Win Bet MADE OF HONOUR 9/1

A matter of preference really
The market before the race might clear some fog
My personal choice right now
Would be Option 1

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