4 Previews

1 Staked Bet


Hitting a couple of slower days now
Not a lot of choice from Today's cards
Surprised I squeezed out 4 Previews

Some Grand National progress made
The provisional shortlist is down to 15
Not immediately bothered about accuracy
The current shortlist is not set in stone
We can chop and change it anytime we like
I have a brand new statistic coming tomorrow
That should throw fresh light on the race





TODAY'S STAKED BET


Hexham 4.30

DUNLY 5/2- 9/4

Each Way

5/2 Bet365 Skybet VC PPower Betfair Sportsbook

9/4 Generally elsewhere






TODAY'S MESSAGE

Not done a message on this day for years
The main aim is choosing the best of 4 bets

Hexham 2.00 - Well Above Par 5/4

Hexham 3.30 - Ryedale Racer 7/1 + Savers

Southwell 4.10 - Mariah's Legend 3/1 (E/W)

Hexham 4.30 - Dunly 9/4 (E/W)


Malcolm Jefferson runs two horses

Hexham 2.00 - He has the odds on favourite
Hexham 3.30 - He has Ryedale Racer

I want to oppose his 2pm favourite
And go with his Ryedale Racer each way in the 3.30

But I am having a rethink
Ryedale Racer is only a small horse
I do not want to watch him struggle
And watch Malcolm Jefferson win the 2pm
With a horse I wanted to avoid

Basically there is too much Sods Law here
I love Ryedale Racer on Paper
But he is running on Heavy ground not paper

I could have messed up the staking
And something is telling me not to rush in
Not to make a big meal of either of his horses

So the better races for me are these

Southwell 4.10 - Mariah's Legend 3/1 (E/W)

Hexham 4.30 - Dunly 9/4 (E/W)


The "One Bet a Day" policy is a Positive Move
I believe this will work out very well long term

The hardest part about that Policy
Are the days where there is less choice

On days like today
I may have to stake things aggressively
Or have some price or runner stipulations
Such as Only a bet if all 8 run etc
I will keep these things to a minimum

These were my best options

Hexham 4.30

DUNLY 9/4-5/2

Each Way

That is my favourite bet on the day
Much as it will make some of you wince

But a Non runner in the 2pm
Has opened that race up
For the following each way double


Hexham 2.00 -WELL ABOVE PAR 5/4

Hexham 4.30 - DUNLY 9/4

Each Way Double

£1 Each Way Double costing £2
Returns £1.90 at above prices if placing
Returns £9.21 at above prices if winning

That seems a reasonable return
When you consider the frame of the 2 races

WELL ABOVE PAR has one obvious danger
But his other dangers are all big priced outsiders

I do like that each way double

But for me the main bet
I am going for the simpler option
Taking one extra layer of risk away
And going with DUNLY as an E/W single

Todays Best Bet

Hexham 4.30

DUNLY 5/2-9/4

Each Way







GRAND NATIONAL

50 currently on our shortlist
Not set in stone of course
We can change strategy anytime
Today are Statistics 4-5-6

Statistic 4 - Horses aged 7
Statistic 5 - Runs That Season
Statistic 6 - Under 9 chase starts

Statistic 4 - Horses aged 7

Horses aged 7 have struggled
They haven't won since 1940 and few get round
Some have already been ruled out
Statistically I should be against these 7 year olds

LE MERCUREY
SHANTOU FLYER
SAMBREMONT


Statistic 5 - Runs That Season

The last 28 winners
Had the following runs that season
5 4 8 4 3 4 6 4 5 6 6 5 9 6
6 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 2 5 4 6 7 6

27 of the 28 winners had at least 3 runs that season
Only Miinnehoma 1994 won with 2 runs that year
He had 9 Chase starts and 17 career runs
I am opposing the following horses
Who have Under 3 runs this season
Some have already been ruled out
O'FAOLAINS BOY - HIGHLAND LODGE
MEASUREOFMYDREAMS -KNOCK HOUSE
STREETS OF PROMISE

26 of the 28 winners had at least 4 runs that season
Only 2 horses have won with under 4 races that season
Both horses very lightly raced
The following horses have 3 runs this season
And are not deemed suitable because of that

CARLINGFORD LOUGH - KATENKO
WONDERFUL CHARM - VIVA STEVE
PLEASANT COMPANY - MILANSBAR
JUST A PAR -

Statistic 6 - Under 9 chase starts

Miinnehoma had 9 Chase runs in 1994
That was a lifetime ago now
None have won since then with fewer

The previous 26 winners
Had the following Chase runs

13 10 14 23 27 12 12 24 14 13 10 11 37
41 14 12 24 17 25 10 23 16 9 14 28 14

PLEASANT COMPANY has 6 Chase runs
VYTA DU ROCC just 8 Chase runs
MORE OF THAT only has 8 Chase runs
You can argue did didn't complete all of those
And sired by Beneficial this a stamina doubt

Revised Shortlist of 35

Many of whom will not get into the race
I am taking out the doubtful runners
The horses 200/1 and more on Betfair
Doesn't matter if any of these do eventually run
We can add them back on the shortlist later on
This leaves a revised shortlist of these horses

Provisional Shortlist of 15

Perfect Candidate - Roi Des Frances-Doctor Harper
Saphir Du Rheu - Wounded Warrior - Tenor Nivernais
The Young Master - Cause Of Causes - Definitly Red
Ucello Conti - Houblon Des Obeaux - Vicente- Foxrock
Thunder And Roses - Gas Line Boy - Goodtoknow







SUNDAYS REVIEW

We had 4 previews on Sunday
Plus some extra observations
Whilst not entirely pleasing on the eye
The Observations worked well for me
As the information within them was accurate
I thought that was some good Naas work
We nailed the draw and got a lot right
Lots of fancied horses beaten by the draw
I took encouragement from that
But also a lot of excitement for the flat season
It was refreshing to see Irish Flat racing again
Only the 4 previews they finished L W W L
BOUTAN opened the message but disappointed
He was the main bet and ran below form
Maybe the ground went against him
But he probably just was not good enough
I thought his allowances and fitness would help
And give him an edge in a small field
But he is probably more of a plating horse
And I think I overrated a bad horse there
Moonlight Bay won each way at 4/1 next
Pleased with the breeding/draw analysis
Preview 3 was a complicated stake
We had 4 horses but did end up with a winner
Andratx 14/1 down to 7/1 was a good result
No idea how easy or hard prices were to get
I didn't get the Ulster National Winner
I was interested the winner was lightly raced
Felt that may happen and only 5 horses qualified
I chose the wrong one and failed in that race
The Top of the Message and main bet disappointed
But the overall message was very encouraging
I came away feeling more motivated and confident
I suppose Saturdays big winner helped to do that
Took a bit of pressure off and motivated me
And certainly no regrets about a daily bet






PROFILES & PREVIEWS

Wolverhampton doesn't interest me
I nearly previewed the 4.50pm maiden
I was interested in Utopian Dream each way
Assuming 5 run of course
Not an easy case to make
Her 2 runs this year are not good enough
Just wondered if she went off too fast last time
On paper this should comfortably be 1st or 2nd
But this a chance tactics could undermine that
And not sure she has a good enough win chance



H e x h a m 2.00

4/5 Storm Forecast, 5/4 Well Above Par
12/1 Cataclysm 25/1 Bruichladdich
50/1 Rain In The Face.


This is a 2m Novice Hurdle

6 runners on heavy ground
Only 3 of these have serious claims

STORM FORECAST is absent 364 days
His last run was when second in this race last year
A year off the track is a long time in Spring
When you bump into fitter horses
The winner of this last year was Kid Valentine
He was a 6yo and was absent 167 days
That is unusual and he had just 1 career start
He shares a similar profile described below

2m Novice Hurdles
March and April
Horses aged 6 or more
Absent more than 144 days
Previous Hurdle runs
Have a 1-75 record

That winner was Kid Valentine in last years race
If we add an extra parameter
And include horses with 2 or more career starts
We find a 0-71 from all horses that tried
STORM FORECAST shares this 0-71 record
A couple have won over longer distances
And this is not a Slam Dunk angle
None of the 71 losers started favourite for example
But it shows absences are rarely overcome
STORM FORECAST has plenty to prove
Hardly the safest sire either
His sire's hurdles short of 2m 4f
With under 2 hurdle runs are 0-27

STORM FORECAST may need this run
I never trust trainer comments good or bad
His connections are on record about this horse

"Not the quickest of horses"
" The forecast heavy/sticky ground is not ideal "
" He may need the run "

You could see those comments as a big negative]
Equally you can look at connections record in this race
And assume STORM FORECAST is a smart horse
But on all the evidence above
I would rather side with WELL ABOVE PAR

WELL ABOVE PAR ran 15 days ago
He also has 1 hurdle run
But it was very recently
His Racing Post Rating was higher
WELL ABOVE PAR looks a safer bet
Doesn't mean he is the best horse of course
But he appealed more than his main rival

Selection

WELL ABOVE PAR 5/4

Win Bet







S o u t h w e l l 2.10

11/8 Brillare Momento, 11/4 Mariah's Legend
13/2 Goodgirlteresa, 10/1 Just A Feeling
Sheneededtherun, 14/1 Scorpio Queen
16/1 Swatow, 20/1 Ballela Magic
66/1 Blakolive, 100/1 Vitarra.

2m 4f Mares Novice Hurdle

Complicated

BRILLARE MOMEMTO unseated rider last time
She may well have won had she not done that
She was also favourite that day
And tops the numbers

The reason I say complicated
Is not just taking that "unseated rider" into account
But I have a very good statistic
That involves horses with her profile
That only applies April May June and July
Had BRILLARE MOMEMTO ran next week
I could have used that statistic
But technically it is still March
Just an annoying little problem

Given all the issues
MARIAHS LEGEND each way looks the bet
She is bang there on the numbers
Has more experience than the favourite
And a far more recent run as well
I don't think she is an each way banker
But that is how I would play the race

Selection

MARIAHS LEGEND 11/4

Each Way





H e x h a m 3.30

4/1 Barrys Jack, 9/2 Modulus, 6/1 Vertigo
7/1 Dubai Devils, Hollywood All Star
8/1 Beyondtemptation, Tikkandemickey
10/1 Ryedale Racer, 14/1 See Double You
20/1 Rinnagree Rosie.

2m 4f Handicap Hurdle for 0-120 rated horses
281 similar races in March/April

RYEDALE RACER is topweight rated 120
He only has a 0-114 class field to beat
I am quite drawn to him as topweight
Even on heavy ground

VERTIGO is beatable
If you look at 365 similar races
5 year olds from Novice or Maiden Hurdles
Those winning last time 0-18
VERTIGO has this problem
If we look at 5 year olds
Coming from Novice or Maiden Hurdles
Over 3 hurdle runs
Running within the last 24 days
We find a 0-14 record
VERTIGO hardly has a brilliant profile
He is also sired by Jeremy
Not the sort of sire I'd want on Heavy over 2m 4f
I appreciate he has just done that
But not in a handicap
VERTIGO was quite cheap
He recently spent 6 Months on the For Sale list
VERTIGO is also quite a small horse

HOLLYWOOD ALL STAR is very exposed
Too exposed to be coming from a 2m hurdle
SEE DOUBLE YOU too old as a 14 year old
RINNAGREE ROSIE is an 11yo mare
Well out of the handicap she is not easy to like

TICKANDEMICKEY is wrong from a Chase
Horses coming from Chases
Aged 10 or more
Have a 0-48 record in similar races

BEYONDTEMPTATION is very beatable
She is a 9yo mare with 50 hurdle races
And has never won off a mark this high before

Shortlist

BARRYS JACK is hard to read
Made harder by recently upgrading stables
His profile is just about ok
BARRYS JACK does look a threat

MONDULAS is progressive
Won 3 of his last 4 races
Career best Rating last time
He has more than enough to shortlist

RYEDALE RACER looks interesting
I like his profile with 2 small concerns
Horses aged 6
Coming from a 2m 4f Handicap Hurdle
9-10-11 previous hurdle runs
Absent 23--29 days
Under 15 Lifetime Starts
3 Horses shared this profile
They all Won !!
Wot Way Chief - Tansient Bay - Turbo Du Ranch
RYEDALE RACER has this W W W profile
The main worry is 11st 12lbs
The 3 horses that won like him had lighter weights
They had 11st 3lbs 11st 5lbs and 10st 10lbs
That's not enough to put me off him
But He is not a big horse
That worries me and I normally avoid these types

DUBAI DEVILS drops in trip
Not an easy profile to read
If he comes on for his last run I'd respect him
He may not have stayed 3m last time


SELCTION

£3.50 Each Way RYEDALE RACER 7/1

£2.00 Win Bet MONDULUS 5/1

£1.00 Win Bet DUBAI DEVILS 9/1





H e x h a m 4.30

11/8 Teescomponents Lad, 11/4 Dunly
9/2 Baracalu, 13/2 Up Helly Aa King
25/1 Bonchester, Corinda, Jacarno, Longmore
40/1 Getonsam.

This is a Maiden Bumper
For horses aged 4-5-6
67 of these races in March and April

The weakest age group are 6 year olds
Horses aged 6 had a 10-170 record

If I look at 6 year olds
Who raced in the previous 30 days
I find a 0-29 record
UP HELLY AA KING fails this 0-29 statistic

Interesting his trainer said about this horse
When referring to his short absence
"Would have been better with a bit longer off"
That is something my angles agree with
He may win but his profile has a hole in it

BONCHESTER fails the sane statistic
He is a 6yo running within the last 30 days
Horses with his profile are 0-29

Staying with 6 year olds
None have so far won absent over 5 months
If we look at horses absent over 149 days
There is a Modest 1-41 record
That sole winner was younger
BARACULA has this problem
He is 6 and absent 359 days

CORINDA is a 6yo Mare absent 125 days
Mares won 8 of the 67 races
None were absent as long as CORINDA
Mares aged 6 like her were 1-38
Mares aged 6 with under 3 runs are 0-34
CORINDA fails this and doesn't offer much

4 year olds are best
They score best in this race as well
So do horses with recent runs

Horses absent more than 52 days
Have a 0-34 record in this race
So with 4 year olds
Who raced within 51 days

TEESCOMPONENTS LAD
DUNLY

DUNLY should go well
I like his profile with 3 runs
The 2014 winner of this had his profile
He has the most experience of all of these
He comes here 2nd 2nd 2nd

I don't see that as a problem
Last time he ran into a Mark Johnston Bumper
That trainers bumper runners are very rare
Chances are he just met a better horse
There was 18 lengths back to the 3rd that day

2 runs ago he was beaten in a photo
No shame at all in that race
He ran into an odds on favourite who is unbeaten
If you look at his Racing Post Ratings
DUNLY has improved them in every race

TEESCOMPONENTS LAD will be a threat
But I don't see a good reason to choose him
Over an experienced horse like DUNLY
When his trainer has had just 1 career winner before

DUNLY Looks a sneaky each way bet at 9/4
On strike rates and winners
He has the best trainer in the race
He has the best jockey
Has the most experience

Selection

DUNLY 9/4

Each Way

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