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Kerry Grand National day
Limited to what else I can do

The Racing Post the main reason
The site is having problems
Results not loading properly
Their form pages are incomplete
It's prevented a detailed message

Had a good crack at this National
2 horses at 25/1 & 20/1 and a saver
Some St Leger work included too
But on a wet and windy day
And a dysfunctional Racing Post
I am keeping this message short
And not staking any official bet
Hopefully back to normal tomorrow


Today's Bet

No Staked Bet




TODAY'S MESSAGE


The Kerry National is the priority

Listowel 4.05

£2.50 Each Way BENTELIMAR 20/1

£2.00 Each Way SHANPALLAS 25/1

£1.00 Win Bet POTTERS POINT 8/1


The Racing Post is not working right
Besides that obvious restriction
It is a wet and very windy day
Hard to predict where rain will fall

The season has just shifted a little
Fewer meetings and less choice.
Colder Weather and more maidens
All perfectly normal and seasonal
Thats why we have stuttered a little

Messages not in their normal rhythm
It has caught us out in the last few days
Lets have a go at the Kerry National
And we will soon be in a normal rhythm


Listowel 4.05

£2.50 Each Way BENTELIMAR 20/1

£2.00 Each Way SHANPALLAS 25/1

£1.00 Win Bet POTTERS POINT 8/1


Both main selections sail through
my angles and fit past winners well.




Future Betting Angles

Deals with the St Leger on Saturday
No final conclusion are in today's piece
No profiles or individual analysis either
I am mainly looking at stamina angles
Considering some different approaches
Just thinking aloud about the St Leger


Tuesdays Review

Whilst I did not have the imagination
Or creativity yesterday to offer much
I did at least have the common sense
To not advise a bet or highlight a race
Only 2 previews and nothing returned
One of the races went badly and lost
The other was unlucky with 2 fallers
Both my selection and the likely winner
Fell in the same race which is unlucky
Hopefully not everyone got involved




PROFILES & PREVIEWS


LISTOWEL 4.05

5/1 Slowmotion, 6/1 Arbre De Vie, Potters Point,
8/1 A Toi Phil, 10/1 Kylecrue, 12/1 Viva Steve,
14/1 Bay Of Freedom, Shanpallas, Tempestatefloresco
16/1 Arkwrisht, Bentelimar, 20/1 Champagne Harmony
25/1 Kilcarry Bridge, Lord Scoundrel, Road To Riches,
33/1 Sir Jack Yeats, Stellar Notion, 33/1 King Leon.

The Kerry National
Listed Handicap Chase over 3m

Fitness is important in this race
Past winners had the following absences
38 3 20 19 19 46 17 48 24 19
You want a run within 7 weeks
The last 17 winners ran within 7 weeks

STELLAR NOTION lacks a recent race

VIVA STEVE also lacks a recent run
He's never won in anything like this class
If you look at Fergal O'Briens record
His runners in Class 2 or higher
Absent over 10 days are 0-29
Never trained a winner in this class
That was absent as long as Viva Steve

BAY OF FREEDOM fails the absence stay
I can forgive him that but not for me
He has raced just once since January 2017
Past winners Number of runs since June
Past winners had 2 4 4 1 2 2 4 2 1 1 runs
If you look at the last 8 winners
They all had 2 + runs in the last 5 months
Those that did not had a 0-37 record
BAY OF FREEDOM fails this 0-37 angles
Besides that he only has 4 Chase runs
And he only completed 3 of those
Winners had the following Chase runs
6 21 26 11 11 13 10 6 13 8 11 5 5 26 39 17
He's be the least experienced winner

ROAD TO RICHES also fails the 0-37 angle
Very hard to see him winning

The last 17 winners were rated 148 or lower
15 of the last 16 were rated under 141
The only one rated higher in recent years
Was a repeat winner in 2011 rated 148

Official ratings of recent winners

128 133 126 130 117 148 137 140 135
127 127 133 126 117 130 123 111 128 112

LORD SCOUNDREL has a rating of 155
ROAD TO RICHES has a rating of 154
No confidence either will overcome that

A TOI PHIL has a rating of 151
Thats 3lbs higher than the last 17 winners
it is 10lbs higher than 15 of the last 16
On heavy ground it worries me for a 7yo
The only 7yo winning with similar weight
Had several more runs that season
Not a good enough profile for me

ARBRE DE VIE has a rating of 150
Tough ask for reasons just discussed
Winning last time pushed him up the weights
He may win from a master trainer
But that rating is higher than acceptable
And in a big field he may find it hard

SLOWMOTION is rated 145
It is Worth remembering
15 of the last 16 were rated under 141
SLOWMOTION is a 5 year old as well
15 out of the last 16 winners aged 6-7-8-9
None were aged 5 which worries me
She is a Mare as well
Not enough 5 year olds run in these races
I would see her age as a Neutral
But given she is a mare
And carries a testing handicap mark
I don't see any justification in selecting her

TEMPESTATEFLORESCO is rated 145
That's higher than Is statistically safe
Doesn't leap off the page to me
Not coming from a 2m hurdle
Not having just 13 career starts as well
Winners had the following Lifetime starts
20 27 51 20 27 24 19 21 37 29
He is not the biggest of horses either
And that seals his fate as one to avoid

Horses aged 10 or more underperform
Since 1992 they have a 2-75 record
Since 1997 they have a 1-66 record

KILCARRY BRIDGE is a 10yo
He does have some recent runs
On a hat trick too but is up in class
His lack of backclass worries me
I'd prefer a horse with Graded Chase form
Given he is a 10yo with 26 Chase runs
I don't feel I can shortlist him

KYLECRUE is a 10 year old
He has 27 chase starts
Winners had the following Chase runs
6 21 26 11 11 13 10 6 13 8 11 5 5 26 39 17
He has more previous chase runs
Than 19 of the last 20 winners of this
Having said that he has 2 recent runs
He also has a 3 day absence as well
He looks the fittest horse in the race
And it was a career best last time

KING LEON didnt do enough last time
SIR JACK YEATS ran too badly 3 days ago
CHAMPAGNE HARMONY lacks positives
Unseated last time is no help
He looks inconsistent as well

ARKWRISHT is a 7 year old
Passes all my main angles
A bit short of runs compared to past winners
Worries me he comes from a Beginners Chase
Most past winners had more chase runs
I'd see him as a possible winner

BENTELIMAR looks an option
He sails through all my angles
Has a nice weight on bad ground

SHANPALLAS also comes out well
No statistical worries to consider
Just has to prove he can stay this far

POTTERS POINT has positives
Top class trainer
Career best Racing Post Rating last time
He is improving and should go well

Shortlist

ARKWRISHT
SHANPALLAS
KYLECRUE
BENTELIMAR
POTTERS POINT


SELECTION

£2.50 Each Way BENTELIMAR 20/1

£2.00 Each Way SHANPALLAS 25/1

£1.00 Win Bet POTTERS POINT 8/1




FUTURE BETTING ANGLES

The St Leger

Doncaster Saturday

Capri (4) Crystal Ocean (4) Defoe (5)
Stradivarius (13/2) Coronet (9)
Raheen House (12) Rekindling (12)
Venice Beach (12) Count Octave (25)
Douglas Macarthur (40) Abyssinian (50)
Air Supremacy (66) The Anvil (66)

3 year old Classic over 1m 6f
In certain races with special demands
Such as this Group 1 race over 1m 6f
I like to canvass different opinions
Look at some lesser known strategies


Dosage Theory

There is an investment manager I rate
He often looks at the Dosage
He is called Niall O'Connor
I've copied this paragraph from his work.

38 of the last 47 winners of the St Leger
Had 5 + stamina points their dosage profile
The only horses that have that this year

CAPRI 7/2
COUNT OCTAVE 25/1
REKINDLING 10/1

That is just one variation of using Dosage
There are many others out there
Such as this Dosage Statistic


The last 33 winners
All had at least 16 Dosage points
CORONET does not have that
SHAKEEL does not have that
Suggesting they are not well enough bred

All had at least 20 Dosage points
If we decide to up the bar to 20 points
DEFOE fails this angle
CRYSTAL OCEAN fails this angle
REKINDLING also fails this angle

Breeding Stats

My bread and butter Method
Would be to look at all of the sires
Find how many winners they had
Over 1m 4f or more in Group Class
When the ground is on the soft side
I would then tighten that up later on
Only including Group 1 races
And ideally with 3 year olds as well

This year the results don't help much
Not with so many Galileo's and Dubawis
The horses that my breeding stats fail
Are REKINDLING and COUNT OCTAVE
Not the most significant of findings



Stamina Index's

This is another interesting methos
I first read about it from Nick Pullen

22 of the last 33 winners
Were progeny of a sire
With a Stamina Index of 11.0 or more
11 winners did not
6 of the 11 winners who didn't
Were products of a dam
Whose sire had a Stamina Index of 10.3+
Now last years winner did not
But the odds on favourite fell in the race
And would most probably have won that
So if we follow this method to the letter
We can only rule out COUNT OCTAVE

Lets look at another Stamina Index method

Add the Stamina Index of the sire
To the Stamina Index figure of the dam sire
If the sum of those two figures
Equals or is bigger than 19.40
Then you can pass them as fine
As 26 of the last 29 winners met that

Results

23.20 Raheen House
22.50 The Anvil
21.30 Coronet
21.10 Stradivarius
21.00 Rekindling
20.40 Venice Beach
20.40 Air Supremacy
19.70 Crystal Ocean
19.60 Abyssinian
19.50 Capri
19.10 Defoe
19.00 Douglas Macarthur
18.10 Count Octave

This means the following horses
DO NOT passed this stamina index test

19.10 Defoe
19.00 Douglas Macarthur
18.10 Count Octave
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