11 Previews
1 Account Bet

Busy generic Saturday message
11 races run over all different codes
Newmarket (4) York (2) Hexham (1)
Chepstow (2) Cork (1) Kempton (1)
Doesn't hide away from hard races
Maybe should have done softer races
So wont be an avalanche of winners
Just hope I've picked one that wins
There will be a Sunday Message


Today's Bet


York 2.40

£3.50 Each Way IT DON'T COME EASY 11/1

£1.00 Win Bet BARTON MILLS 9/1

£1.00 Win Bet STAXTON 10/1

£1.00 Win Bet DANCE DIVA 12/1

Unusual Bet today
Each way bet at 11/1
But three savers as well
12/1 Available with the following firms
Bet365 Skybet PPower Betfair
Generally 11/1 otherwise




Today's Message

Having some hosting problems
The message is board is temporarily down
Should be up soon


The main plan today
Find a bet that wins
If not then a bet that does not lose

If there a flaw in the message
It does not have enough softer races
Always nice to have the odd banker
To break the message up
Stop losing runs within a message
We don't have enough today

Thats why I am highlighting just 1 bet
And suggest modest stakes in most races

York 2.40


£3.50 Each Way IT DON'T COME EASY 12/1

£1.00 Win Bet BARTON MILLS 9/1

£1.00 Win Bet STAXTON 10/1

£1.00 Win Bet DANCE DIVA 12/1

Complicated staking
Taking on a very short priced horse
Mainly because of the draw
I have 4 options as an alternative
Could have done 2 each way but which
Prefer to go for one big priced horse
With 3 savers who all return stakes

If the selection runs badly
It may be a hard race last time to blame
Hopefully in that case a saver wins
If last time does not effect him
He has a very good chance





Friday's Review

7 Previews in yesterdays message
These all finished L P L L W L L
There were some highs and lows
The biggest was LAURENS winning
He landed the days best bet at 10/1
The horse failing a 0-998 statistic lost
That was a relief and pleasing as well
Got plenty wrong elsewhere though
I could have rescued the 1.50 Preview
Sound And Silence E/W was the call
Rather than a win bet and the saver
I Can Call was a fascinating result
I wanted him E/W but the price went
I gave two optional savers at 25/1
One of those (Altyn Orda) won
The shortlist finished 1st 25/1 3rd 7th
That was a triumph for my statistics
But I didn't stake the savers in the end
That has to go down as a silly mistake
We got the Newton Abbot race right
Essaka disappointed in the last race
But my best bet on the day won at 10/1
Can only be a good day if that happens




PROFILES & PREVIEWS



NEWMARKET 1.50

11/8 Kew Gardens, 4/1 Albishr,
5/1 Dee Ex Bee, 8/1 Graffiti Master,
8/1 Rastrelli, 8/1Westerland,
20/1 Dubai Empire.

Zetland Stakes
Listed race for 2 year olds over 10f
Serious stamina and class required

Racing Post Ratings of past winners
The numbers achieved on the day they won
96 95 88 101 100 101 100 95 82 98
The highest rated winner had a 101 rating
KEW GARDENS already has rating of 104
He has achieved more than all recent winners

ALBISHR is 2nd top on the numbers
I can not have him though from 7f
This is a 3f jump in distance
It has not been done since 2001 in this race
Not convinced he will stay either
His sire has a stamina index of just 7.5f
Recent winners had sires with these indexs
9.6f 10.0f 8.4f 11.8f 11.8f 9.6f 11.2f

DEE EX BEE isn't a certain stayer
If he gets home he could be a threat
GRAFITI MASTER looks a better saver
WESTERLAND does as well
But on Numbers and Pedigree
KEW GARDENS looks the safer bet

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet KEW GARDENS 7/4

£1.25 Win Bet GRAFITI MASTER 8/1

£1.25 Win Bet WESTERLAND 8/1





CHEPSTOW 1.55

11/4 Captain Simon, 4/1 Dynamite Dollars,
13/2 Fleminport, 8/1 Jaunty Flyer, 10/1 Vango De Vaige
12/1 Notre Ami, 14/1 Natter Jack Croak
14/1 Lostintranslation, 16/1 Cheer's Delboy,
20/1 Cap Du Nord, 20/1 Lubatic, 25/1 Blue Bullet
25/1 Tekiblue de L'Orme, 25/1 Rumor

2M Novice Hurdle

Lacking evidence in this race
There is a "best profile" horses
But big stables are in operation here
So nothing taken for granted

CAPTAIN SIMON has a good profile
October Novice Hurdles Since 2002
Any distance
Horses aged 5
Winning a Bumper last time
1 career start
First run for 5 + months
25 horses had this profile
12 of these won a 48% strike rate
CAPTAIN SIMON has this 12-25 profile

I like it more than his market rival
DYNAMITE DOLLARS is 4 a year younger
Males aged 4
Coming from a Non Grade 1 Bumper
Beaten in that race
First time out
Have a modest 1-66 record

FLEMINPORT is an unraced 4yo
Always feel you can get one beaten
Especially from Jonjo O'Neill's stable

If I look at unraced 5 year olds males
In October Novice Hurdles under 2m 3f
You find a 0-34 record since 2007
LOSTINTRANSLATION has this profile

Can't vouch for any horses fitness here
But CAPTAIN SIMON has the best profile

Selection

CAPTAIN SIMON 5/2

Win Bet

or

Each Way if you prefer





YORK 2.40

5/4 Shabaaby, 7/1 Dance Diva, 7/1 Staxton,
10/1 It Dont Come Easy, 12/1 Daddies Girl,
12/1 Peggy's Angel, 14/1 Barton Mills, Island Drive,
14/1 Rebel Assault, 20/1 Pulitzer, 33/1 Shaya,
50/1 Savannah's Show.

Rockingham Stakes
6f Listed race for 2yo's

SHABAABY has the best form
Racing Post Rating of 107
STAXTON next with a 101 rating

SHABAABY is a short price at 11/10
Does look progressive and can easily win
What bothers me most though is the draw
SHABAABY is drawn 1 in a 12 runner race

6f races at York
With 10 or more runners
Horses drawn 1 have struggled
But look at 2 year olds drawn 1
Since 2007 they have a 0-88 record
Since 2003 they have a 1-123 record
The only winner was in a 2yo seller
Juveniles drawn 1 have a horrible record
That's why I'm not betting him at 11/10

No stand out risk free alternative

Recent winners had the following runs
4 5 7 1 7 8 5 6 2 4 4 7 9 3 6 4 9 3 4 5 7 7 3
Only 2 winners had under 3 career starts
Thats not many in the last 23 renewals
The 2 that did it had Racing Post Ratings
Of at least 86 or higher
BARTON MILLS has not managed that
But won easily last time and superb trainer
ISLAND DRIVE has not managed that
PEGGYS ANGEL is too far behind
DADDIES GIRL is respected
Doesn't make the shortlist though
I would choose from these options

BARTON MILLS
DANCE DIVA - Filly with absence
STAXTON
IT DON'T COME EASY
The last name ran well 14 days ago
On ground he hated with topweight

SELECTION

£3.50 Each Way IT DON'T COME EASY 12/1

£1.00 Win Bet BARTON MILLS 9/1

£1.00 Win Bet STAXTON 10/1

£1.00 Win Bet DANCE DIVA 12/1






CORK 2.45

4/1 Cascavelle, Not A Bad Oul Day,
11/2 Celebration, 13/2 G Force, 8/1 Keep Believing,
9/1 Hasselnott, Tribal Path, 14/1 No Education,
16/1 Dasheen, Fair Game, Fit For Function,
16/1 Master Speaker, 25/1 An Saighdiur,
50/1 Beach Bar.

7f Handicap

This is very unpleasant
Has to be in the two hard category
CASCAVELLE made no appeal
Not as a 3yo with 1 run this season
And a 74 day absence against older horses
FIT FOR FUNCTION didn't do enough last time
KEEP BELIEVING has a 10lbs claimer
I would see Stall 1 more negative than positive

I can see too much strength in depth
I am nominating 2 horses only

Shortlist

G FORCE interests me
I know he is not too safe
Coming from a 6f Listed race
But if we look at this another way
Last time out Racing Post Ratings
G FORCE is comfortably clear
I would want him on the staking plan

MASTER SPEAKER has to be shortlisted
He is by far the best backed horse
He is also very well handicapped

Small Stakes
I will be hoping one of these wins

£3.50 Each Way G FORCE 8/1

£3.00 Win Bet MASTER SPEAKER 11/1






NEWMARKET 3.00

4/7 Expert Eye, 4/1 Emaraaty,
8/1 U S Navy Flag, 10/1 Seahenge,
25/1 Cardsharp, 33/1 Threeandfourpence,
40/1 Great Prospector, 40/1 Mendelssohn
50/1 Theobald.

The Dewhurst is a Group 1 race
It is for 2 year olds over 7f
Looks a high class renewal

EXPERT EYE is the star on show
But he is a very short price now
And he is not like any recent winners

EXPERT EYE - 2 Runs
EMERAATY - 2 Runs
SEAHENGE - 3 Runs
US NAVY FLAG - 9 Runs

Since 2005
The winners had the following runs
5 4 4 4 5 4 3 9 8 4 4 3

None of the last 12 winners had under 3 runs
Only 2 of the last 23 winners did
9 of the last 10 winners had 4 + runs
The only horse that did not was Frankel
That makes me question the lighter raced

EXPERT has fewer runs than recent winners
His 74 day absence is a problem as well
Every winner since 2005 ran within 49 days
EMERAATY has just 2 runs
He has achieved the least of the big 4

US NAVY FLAG is a bit exposed
But the 2009 winner also had 9 runs
Ryan Moore has chosen to ride him
And turned down SEAHENGE as well

The only reason EXPERT EYE is odds on
He blew everybody away at Goodwood
That was a Racing Post Rating of 116
US NAVY FLAG ran a 116 last time out
The best 2yo this season on R.Post ratings
Would have been my bet in this race
That is Verball Dexterity with a 119 rating
Joint 2nd best 2 year olds
EXPERT EYE and US NAVY FLAG

So given EXPERT EYE is odds on
Not matchable to a recent winner
And has a far longer absence
And the other is 8/1
I feel the bet picks itself

Selection

US NAVY FLAG 8/1

Each Way






NEWMARKET 3.40

8/1 John Constable, 9/1 Who Dares Wins,
10/1 Lagostovegas, Withhold, 12/1 Dubawi Fifty,
12/1 Endless Acres, Time To Study, 14/1 Euchen Glen,
12/1 London Prize, 16/1 Laws Of Spin, Magic Circle,
16/1 Shrewd, 20/1 Snow Falcon, 25/1 Swamp Fox,
25/1 Aurora Gray, Byron Flyer, 25/1 Fun Mac,
25/1 Getback In Paris, Landsman, Swashbuckle,
25/1 Watersmeet, 28/1 Rolling Maul, 33/1 Digeanta,
28/1 Duke Street, Frederic, Friday Night Light, Oceane,
33/1 Star Rider, Tawdeea, Taws, 40/1 First Mohican,
40/1 Mirsaale, Percy Veer, 50/1 Arthur Mc Bride,
66/1 Cape Caster, Poyle Thomas.

Cesarewitch Handicap
Almost certainly a waste of time
My angles in this are too obsessive

I would do the following
Ignore the 5 year olds
They are 1-149 in this race
They are 0-89 in the last 13 years

Ignore horses with 1-2 runs this year
Oppose 4 year olds with under 13 runs
On the grounds they are 0-74 in this
If you go back to 1998
Horses drawn 27 or higher
Have a 1-136 record in this race
I'd avoid the highest of draws

Horses from 1m 6f or shorter
Should be opposed if aged 5 or more
And if absent more than a Mopnth

This and a few other little angles
Led me to a shortlist of 4 horses

8/1 John Constable,
16/1 Time To Study
16/1 Euchen Glen
20/1 Shrewd

£2 Each Way EUCHEN GLEN 16/1

£2 Each Way TIME TO STUDY 16/1

£1 Saver Bet JOHN CONSTABLE 8/1

£1 Saver Bet SHREWD 20/1





HEXHAM 4.00

7/2 Purcell's Bridge, 9/2 Kilcullen Flem,
5/1 Green Flag, 13/2 Smuggler's Stash,
8/1 Indian Voyage, 8/1 The Trigger,
12/1 Border Breaker, 14/1 More Madness,
14/1 Allez Cool

3M Handicap Chase

138 similar races in Octber

Don't get enough time to do these races
Not on a Saturday
I did notice something interesting
INDIAN VOYAGE is by Indian Haven
I can not see him staying 3 miles
Not by that sire and up a mile
INDIAN VOYAGE my not get placed
THE TRIGGER ran too badly last week
MORE MADNESS hasn't won in 4 years
We have another pair of 10 year olds
If you look at 10 year olds
Running first time out
With more than 11st 2lbs weight
You find a modest 0-27 record since 2009
There is no great record
Of 10y0 debutants winning these races
Especially when having high weights
PURCELLS BRIDGE shares this 0-27 profile
GREEN FLAG shares shares this 0-27 profile

Handicap Chases in October
Since 2009
Any Distance
Class 3-4-5-6
Horses aged 10 or more
First time out
Coming from Class 2 or lower
Carrying more than 11st 2lbs
Have a 0-56 record
PURCELLS BRIDGE fails this 0-56 angle
GREEN FLAG fails this 0-56 angle
Messy and complicated
But puts me off the 10yo high weight debutants
BORDER BREAKER Pulled up last time
RED GIANT hammered just 10 days ago
Neither off reasons to bet them
I like the 7 year old debutants

Horses aged 7
First time out
12-17career starts
Over 6 Chase runs
17 horses had this profile
5 of them won in a 5-17 record
2 horses have this excellent profile

KILCULLEN FLEM
SMUGGLER'S STASH

KILCULLEN FLEM has more improvement
SMUGGLER'S STASH guaranteed stamina
Hard to split them
Need to be on both
SMUGGLER'S STASH is the saver
Described as a "Big burly type"
Raises doubts how fit he could be
I am playing it this way

Selection

£6 Win Bet KILCULLEN FLEM 6/1

£2 Win Bet SMUGGLER'S STASH 6/1

£1 Win Bet ALLEZ COOL 12/1

£1 Win Bet MORE MADNESS 16/1








CHEPSTOW 4.10

9/2 Wholestone, 5/1 Bags Groove, 8/1 Alary,
11/1 Sumkindofking, 12/1 Louis' Vac Pouch,
12/1 Sam Spinner, 14/1 Drumcliff, Le Rocher,
14/1 Peak To Peak, Three Musketeers, Whatduhavtoget,
16/1 Wishing And Hoping, 16/1 Court Minstrel,
20/1 Old Guard, River Frost, 25/1 Doesyourdogbite,
25/1 Souriyan, 33/1 Milrow.

Silver Trophy
Graded Handicap Hurdle over2m 4f
Always highly competetive

WHOLESTONE is favourite
Not sure I would see him as safe
If you look at 6 year olds in this race
Those with over 5 hurdle races
Have a 0-31 record
WHOLESTONE fails that 0-31 profile

Something else he fails as well
Go back in this race to 2005
Match horses with over 11st weight
Having their seasonal debutants
You find a 0-31 profile here as well
WHOLESTONE fails this 0-31 profile

Several others fail it as well
ALARY has this problem
LE ROCHER has this problem
RIVER FROST has it as well
So do the following horses
Old Guard - Three Musketeers
LOUIS VAC POUCH is not like a winner
COURT MISTRAL a bit older than ideal

Seasonal Debutants
Aged under 8
6 or more Hurdle runs
Have a 0-46 profile since 2995
Several horses have this profile
DRUMCLIFFE - RIVER FROST
PEAK TO PEAK - WHATDUHAVTOGET

Acceptable Profiles

Sam Spinner
Wishing And Hoping
Sumkindofking
Bags Groove

Selection

£4.00 Win Bet SAM SPINNER 14/1

£4.00 Win Bet WISHING AND HOPING 16/1

£1.00 Win Bet SUMKINDOFKING 14/1

£1.00 Win Bet BAGS GROOVE 9/1




YORK 4.25

4/1 Epic Fantasy, 9/2 Agar's Plough,
5/1 Chief Justice, 6/1 Air Raid, Maghaweer,
8/1 Mont Kinabalu, 12/1 Sunstorm,
14/1 Sempre Presto, 16/1 Dawn Breaking,
16/1 Highest Rank, 20/1 Cristal Spirit,
100/1 Angel Carlotta, Marcella.

7f Novice for 2 year olds

EPIC FANTASY seemed a strange favourite
Didn't achieve much on his debut
He was only a 50/1 chance that day

7f races at York
Since 2013
Horses with under 3 runs
Drawn 10 or more
Return a 0-45 record in these years
I think a lower draw is much safer

AGARS PLOUGH drawn 11 fails that
He is an obvious danger though
He has the best profile for me
Novices in October
6f and more
Colts
2 races
Beaten under 3 lengths last time
Absent over 4 weeks
Have a W W W W record

MAGHAWEER is drawn 12
With 1 run he is not as safe as I like
If you look at all similar 7f Novices
Horses 2nd or 3rd last time out
Beaten under 1.5 lengths
Have a 5-8 record in these races
Horses like MAGHAWEER
Beaten around 5 lengths have yet to win
EPIC FANTASY is a typical sort failing that
CHIEF JUSTICE is up in distance
He has already refused to race
I'd argue he is not certain to get home
SEMPRE PRESTO didn't do enough last time

Shortlist

AGARS PLOUGH must be shortlisted on profile

MONT KINBALU is fine with 4 runs
He has the most experience
Shouldn't be seen as a dirty word in October
His numbers are very competetive
His draw is nice and safe as well

AIR RAID should be shortlisted
He is bang there on the numbers

Rather than go each way
I'd prefer to take in 2 savers
We have the numbers horses on side
We have the best profile horses on side

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet AGARS PLOUGH 3/1

£1.50 Win Bet MONT KINBALU 13/2

£1.50 Win Bet AIR RAID 6/1





NEWMARKET 4.50

9/4 Queen Kindly, 5/1 Thafeera, 8/1 Spiritual Lady,
8/1 The Wagon Wheel, 10/1 Perfect Angel,
12/1 Quench Dolly, Eartha Kitt, 14/1 Classical Times,
14/1 Gymnaste, 14/1 Tirania, 16/1 Pixeleen,
25/1 Marie Of Lyon, 33/1 Savannah Slew

Boadicea Stakes
6f Listed race over 6f for fillies
14 past renewals

Over the years
Horses going up in class have struggled
Horses from Class 2 or lower
Have a miserable 2-104 record
Those aged 5 or more doing it were 0-16
Those beaten last time doing it were 0-72
This takes out the following horses
Marie Of Lyon - Eartha Kitt - Gymnaste - Tirania
Quench Dolly - Pixeleen - Savannah Slew

SPIRITUAL LADY has 1 run in 2017
That is most probably not enough
SPIRITUAL LADY is the money horse
Past winners had the following runs that year
5 4 5 5 4 7 7 7 4 4
The last 10 winners had at least 4 runs
Which is why I can't select her

A recent run has been no help
Horses running within 17 days struggled
They have a 1-83 record
They are 0-74 since 2004
Those beaten last time were 0-55
THE WAGON WHEEL ran 5 days ago
Failing these angles she looks unsafe

QUEEN KINDLY also has this problem
She ran 13 days ago and was beaten
She is the highest rated horse though
So not ruling her out on that angle
But QUEEN KINDLY also comes from 5f
No past winners did that in a 0-27 record
She may win but her profile is dodgy

Shortlist

CLASSICAL TIMES
PERFECT ANGEL
THAFEERA

Horses from 7f races score very well
Especially 3 year olds from 7f pattern races
CLASSICAL TIMES has this profile
Work to do on her numbers
But from a key trial race she is shortlisted
PERFECT ANGEL is also shortlisted
She also comes from a 7f Pattern race
THAFEERA comes from a Class 2 race
Fine with that as he won last time out
Last years winner did the same thing

Selection

THAFEERA 7/2

Each Way




KEMPTON 6.45

15/8 Jazeel, 100/30 Nuits St Georges,
4/1 Dragon Mountain, 5/1 Doctor Jazz, 14/1 India,
16/1 Munstead Gold, Praeceps, Universal Command
33/1 Point In Time, 40/1 Davina,
50/1 Blackwood, Indiscretion.

2yo Novice over 8f
Won't be as obvious as it looks
But I could only shortlist 2
NUITS ST GEORGES is rejected
I think he will be better over shorter
DOCTOR JAZZ is a debutant
From his connections I wouldn't risk him
INDIA hasn't done enough yet
MUNSTEAD GOLD has the same problem
I think 2 stand out
DRAGON MOUNTAIN 7/2 JAZEEL 2/1
I could select either and save on the other
JAZEEL may have more class

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet JAZEEL 15/8

£2.00 Win Bet DRAGON MOUNTAIN 7/2

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