0 Account Bet
0 Negative
5 Previews

4 Meetings and 5 Previews
Swerving the dross at Newcastle
3 Hereford Previews despite heavy ground
1 race done each at Leicester and Kempton


Todays Bet

No Staked Bet




T o d a y s M e s s a g e


Low grade stuff again as you'd expect
Messages planned all week including Sunday
Sandown and Musselburgh headline Saturday
Not a significant week for big meetings
I have my eye on a 4 mile Chase at Musselburgh
It will no doubt make up part of Saturdays message

Never easy to stake a bet early week
If I wanted to put out shorter priced bets
Then I Could go with this horse

Leicester 2.40
PADDOCKS LOUNGE 11/10
Win Bet

Appears to have a solid chance
His main rivals have plenty of flaws

If I stick a short priced win bet up
I like to have that "will win" feeling
I just don't have that with this horse
Much as I think he will win
Or should at least win on paper

So I will stick him in an each way double
There are several horses in the message
That could (and do) fulfill each way double role



Today's Best Bet

Leicester 2.40 - PADDOCKS LOUNGE 11/10

Kempton 3.20 - ENVISAGING 2/1

Each Way Double

I would not stake a bet like this
Just trying to come up with a best bet
From a message with a lot of similar options






T u e s d a y ' s S u m m a r y

Happy enough with yesterdays message
Especially as the best bet in there won
And it finished with a P L W W record
I can't be dealing with that track at Wolves
I don't feel to blame for any losers there
And don't feel I deserve credit for winners there
All feels too random to me
What delighted me about the message
Was also what I chose to leave out
The best negative (Molly Carew) won at 33/1
But thankfully I did not include the race
I was going to do the first at Down Royal
The 3/1 winner was a horse I'd have opposed
So we ended up dodging a couple of bullets
And happily ending up with a winning message
Yesterdays not staked highlighted winner
Does at least pay for Sundays non staked loser
So we can move on to the rest of the week now




Daily Negatives

No Official Negatives

31 correct bets from 45





P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s



H e r e f o r d 1.30

9/4 Lillington, 9/2 Miracle Cure
9/2 Way Of The World, 7/1 Rebel Beat
9/1 Yorgonnahearmeroar, 10/1 Chief Brody
10/1 Ruler Of The Nile, 14/1 Jinsha Lake
20/1 Blackfire, 33/1 Lucky Gal.

2m Novice Handicap Hurdle
LILLINGTON is a warm favourite
Wonder if that could be the Colin Tizzard factor
I look at a him as a 5yo with Topweight
His profile was interesting
But because he came from a Novice Handicap
Rather than a Novice Hurdle it was unsafe
Horses aged 5
Coming from a Novice Handicap Hurdle
Under 9 career starts (Lillington has 6)
Under 6 hurdle runs (Lillington has 4)
Horses with this profile had a 0-31 record
Given his weight and experience
I'd rather go each way against him

This is heavy ground though
It is a logistical nightmare
I don't like the look of the following
RULER OF THE NILE - CHIEF BRODY
There are safer options than JINSHA LAKE
REBEL BEAT didn't do enough last time

Stronger profiles

WAY OF THE WORLD
MIRACLE CURE
YORGONNAHEARMEROAR
It was just the ground
That pushed me towards the experienced horse

Selection

Small Stakes

£4.00 Each Way MIRACLE CURE 9/2

£1.00 Win Bet YORGONNAHEARMEROAR 8/1

£1.00 Win Bet WAY OF THE WORLD 9/1





H e r e f o r d 2.00

2/1 Aurillac, 3/1 Chef D´oeuvre, 3/1 Dig Deeper,
5/1 Arctic Gold, 12/1 Goodbye Dancer, 14/1 Weststreet
40/1 Sage Monkey, 100/1 Granit Man.

3m 1f Beginners Chase
Wont be many that can win this

I wasn't drawn to ARCTIC GOLD
Because he has never raced over fences
And Pulled up over hurdles last time
GOODBYE DANCER also pulled up last time
This should be a three horse race
DIG DEEPER is one of the big 3
But I am going to look elsewhere
He has raced just once since 2015
Worries me a bit for such an inexperienced horse
I will go with CHEF D´OEUVRE each way
But really just guessing and playing the percentages
Going to throw him in with an each way double

The Kempton 3.20 seems to fit the bill
Only about 3 can be fancied
ENVISAGING each way is hardly creative
But would be my choice of the second leg

Selection

Hereford 2.00 - CHEF D´OEUVR 11/4

Kempton 3.20 - ENVISAGING 2/1

Each Way Double





H e r e f o r d 2.30

8/11 Ice Cool Champs, 7/2 Diamond Fort, 7/2 Subcontinent
16/1 Market Road, 20/1 Chevalgris, 20/1 Coroner´s Report
40/1 Tarrona, 40/1 The Kid, 100/1 Blue Bay Boy
100/1 Courtinthemiddle, 100/1 Mr Pippin
100/1 Musical Moon.

2m 3f Maiden Hurdle
Looks to involve 3 horses
May surprise you but I like the favourite
Or at least my statistics like him
ICE COOL CHAMPS at 4/5 would be my choice
I thought he might be a negative
Only 1 run as a 6yo in a Bumper
I've run his profile though and it is fine

That puts me off any each way option
SUBCONTINENT was an each way option
But I don't like his profile
January February March April
Maiden Hurdles at every distance
5 year olds
No National hunt form
Previous Flat form
Absent 80 days or more
There is a 1-94 record with these horses
SUBCONTINENT fails this 1-94 record
It shows flat recruits have poor records
When tackling all maiden hurdles after an absence

I think one of 2 will win
ICE COOL CHAMPS
DIAMOND FORT
There is a DIAMOND FORT each way case
He does have experience over hurdles
ICE COOL CHAMPS has the best profile though
I think I will play it 2 ways

Split Stake

£5 Win ICE COOL CHAMPS 4/5-10/11

£5 Match Bet

DIAMOND FORT to beat Subcontinent




L e i c e s t e r 2.40

5/4 Paddocks Lounge, 15/8 Dusty Raven
5/1 Lucy Mc, 8/1 Golan Dancer, 16/1 Order Of Service
25/1 Smoky Hill, 50/1 Capatosta, 50/1 Catch Another.

This is a Novice Claiming Hurdle

Not keen on certain 4 year olds in these races
Look at Novice Claiming Hurdles
Run over 3 miles or shorter
Any time of year
There are 50 of these races
Horses aged 4 won 11 of these races
But 10 of those winners had recent runs
Those absent longer than 17 days were just 1-75
DUSTY RAVEN absent 26 days fails that
Best month for 4yo winners is December
Stands to reason as they are almost 5 year olds
Look at 4 year olds in Novice Claiming Hurdles
3 miles or shorter
January to November
There is a 7-99 record
Those absent more than 17 days were 0-53
DUSTY RAVEN fails that 0-53 record
Those who had under 4 hurdle runs were 0-62
DUSTY RAVEN with just 2 hurdle runs fails that 0-62 stat
He looks the wrong kind of 4yo in these races

SMOKY HILL looks quite modest
He is conceding weight to superior horses
LUCY MC is a mare absent 133 days
If I look at all similar races since 2007
Any time of year run over 3m or shorter
Mares absent more than 4 weeks were 0-31

GOLAN DANCER is hard to read
Pulling up last time is not a good sign
He does have some numbers that would win this
Despite a 0-17 career record

PADDOCKS LOUNGE is a much safer choice
Very consistent numbers
Difficult to see him not going close
And his 2 main opponents are flawed

Selection

PADDOCKS LOUNGE 11/10

Win Bet





K e m p t o n 2.50

5/2 William Sayle, 7/2 Excel Again, 7/2 Trade Route
7/1 Drumochter, 8/1 Alexander M, 10/1 Tibibit
16/1 Broad Appeal, 25/1 Feisty One U R, 25/1 Sublime
40/1 My Brother Mike, 40/1 Worthy Spirit.

All aged maiden over a Mile
There are 178 similar races in January-February
I am opposing the unraced horses
Not because of any great statistic
Although over 8f here unraced 3 year olds are just 2-55
But some of the sires do not inspire me

WILLIAM SAYLE is sired by Bahamian Bounty
His unraced horses over 8f or more have struggled
If you look at this sires unraced male horses
They are 0-32 first time out in the last 15 years
I'd rather not risk an unraced horse from this sire
DRUMOCHTER is rejected for similar reasons
His sire has never had an unraced winner over this far
TIBIBIT is a 4yo and I'd rather have a 3yo

Shortlist

EXCEL AGAIN is unraced
Can't be ruled out
But I have 2 shortlisted with experience

ALEXANDER M has raced once last year
His profile is fine and he had excuses on debut
Made him a negative that day from an awful draw

TRADE ROUTE has raced once 18 days ago
His profile is fine and he looks a big threat
Doesn't appear to be the biggest of horses
And his debut Racing Post Rating was average
Think he has to be at least a saver
But having watched him I didn't fall in love

Selection

£6 Win Bet ALEXANDER M 4/1

£4 Win Bet TRADE ROUTE 15/8

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