4 Previews
0 Staked Bet

Not as much choice this Friday
Decided on a much shorter email
Helps free time up for Saturday
The dreaded Shergar Cup tomorrow
One of my least favourite Saturdays
I have cancelled todays account bet
The race favourite has just pulled out


Today's Bet

No Staked Bet





TODAY'S MESSAGE


The Planned Bet

Wolverhampton 2.50

FELISA


Plan A was an each way bet 11/4-3/1
FELISA is only 11/8 now
The favourite pulling out hasn't helped

I was thinking about her as a win bet
Or possibly in an each way double
I think she will win
But she is a bit short now

No obvious weak areas from the previews
But the selections are not that brave
They seem safe and solid to me
Decided not to search for a replacement bet

If I had added a 5th Preview
It would have been the 4.45 Tipperary
Six Silver Lane each way 100/30
Would have been my selection
That's just for information purposes only

My Spellchecker is playing up
Sorry if there are any glaring mistakes
I can't check it manually
Reading my own message makes me feel ill

The message suffers a bit for being a Friday
And my first choice of bet has been spoilt
But I'll be disappointed in 4 previews
If we don't win or break level in at least 3

FELISA is my best bet
Just not able to be staked how I wanted
Or at the price I was expecting as well




THURSDAY'S REVIEW

An 8 preview message with some variety
Wasn't too bad with some ups and downs
The Account bet was split £3 £3 £2 EWD
It produced a winner and a third place
£10 Stake Returns £16.35 at Starting Price
It comes out just under a 4/6 winning single

Started badly as SHARP'S CHOICE lost
He just seemed to meet a lot of congestion
Lots of competetive horses of similar ability
All fighting their corner off a modest gallop
We then needed AMAZING ALICE to win
Luckily she did and in the end quite easily

I swapped my bets around in the 2.20 race
STAXTON went from selection to a saver
That was a mistake but we did not lose there
That favourite was a good negative beaten
As was the favourite in MAN POWER's race
We ended up with a saver winning there too

You always have to get a little bit of luck
If MAN POWER had been in the main bet
Placed with SHARPS CHOICE we'd have lost
He could so easily have been in that main bet
I didn't think I did too much wrong overall
The opening Preview was a losing start
I think our two horses had rubbish rides
W had a winning double up shortly after
It was one winner off a very good message
It was one loser off a much poorer message
But the account bet nicked a bit of profit
So I feel it could have been a lot worse



PROFILES & PREVIEWS




WOLVERHAMPTON 2.50

10/11 Sancerre, 7/2 Felisa, 6/1 Flo's Melody,
Jean Paget, 16/1 Formiga, Watch Tan
33/1 Ruby Sound, 40/1 Spix's Macaw
50/1 Lady Ensign

6f selling race for 2yo fillies
Only 9 of these races exist
So producing angles isn't safe
There are not many who can win this

SANCERRE is hard to read properly
But I do not smell a safe profile
First of all She comes up in distance
And She does that with just a 2 day break
That is compounded by having just 2 runs
That smells like a dodgy profile to me
But it such a rare one I am just limited

Every 6f race
Run since 2007
Any Class
Any time of year
Horses from 5f races
Running within 4 days
Under 5 career starts
Return a 0-29 career record
SANCERRE fails this 0-29 record
And she is a filly with a penalty
She also only has 2 runs and 2 days off
Win lose or draw I should oppose her

FLO'S MELODY is one of the main options
I have my doubts about hr staying 6f
Not the first time I have called her on it

JEAN PAGET flopped last time out
She was favourite for a seller
But she boiled over in the preliminaries
FELISA's profile is far more orthadox

She brings 6 consistent well spaced out runs
They all produce consistent numbers as well

FELISA would be my number 1
JEAN PAGET could play a saver role

Selection

FELISA 11/8

Win Bet




MUSSELBURGH 4.30

2/1 Thorntoun Care, 11/4 Mambo Dancer,
4/1 Falcon's Fire, 5/1 Schmooze, 7/1 Steccando

12f Handicap
Low Grade race
I am drawn to the topweights
Who have the best recent numbers
And who have the most recent runs

THORNTON CARE has a 4 day absence
FALCON'S FIRE has a 7 day absence
Won't be easy to get both beaten

MAMBO DANCER is a 3yo
Powerful stable but only 3 runs
And he also has a 218 day absence
It's asking a lot for him to take this
Against 2 older very recent returners

I found a 3yo filly with 3 runs win
Who had a 92 day absence (Introductory)
But that was only a 3 runner race
MAMBO DANGER is not a filly
And he is absent twice as long
STECCANDO makes no appeal
Recently downgraded stables
New yard has a 0-38 career record
He comes here hammered 72 lengths
SCHMOOZE is a very beatable 8yo
If you look at Racing Post Ratings
Since 2016 his best number has been 58
Both my selections beat that regularly
Class and Fitness
Steer me towards the topweights
Who also have the shortest absences

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet THORNTON CARE 6/4

£1.50 Win Bet FALCON'S FIRE 11/2





MUSSELBURGH 5.00

6/4 Golden Jeffrey, 2/1 Jonny Delta
9/2 Tectonic, 8/1 Maple Stirrup

2m Handicap

Only 4 runners
I wanted to be with the non runner
But I am doing the race
As the favourite looks unsafe

GOLDEN JEFFREY comes 8f
This is a step up in trip of 8 furlongs

Look at 2 mile races since 2007
All races over 2 miles and more
Any type of race
Any class of race
Any month of the year
Horses from 8f races
Running within 5 months
Have a miserable 1-74 record
Those with under 20 runs were 0-60
GOLDEN JEFFREY fails this 0-60 angle

The small field is the problem
Statistics much harder to trust
Significant risks of falsely run races

MAPLE STIRRUP is an older mare
With 1 run since March she is weak
Only a tiny field stops me saying negative
JONNY DELTA is a 10 year old
Up from 12f as well so hardly safe
Again the small field is the issue
I am playing it this way

Selection

£7 Win Bet TECTONIC 4/1

£3 Win Bet JONNY DELTA 2/1






WOLVERHAMPTON 5.25

13/8 Mutineer, 11/2 Russian Ranger, Top Offer
8/1 The Dukkerer, 10/1 Lord Murphy, Vivre La Reve
14/1 Lazizah, 20/1 Damo 25/1 Careyanne
33/1 Rocket Ronnie.

Low Grade 8f Handicap
146 similar races in August

THE MUTINEER won 2 days ago
He may only be a 3 year old
But I can match him to a winner
He has momentum as well right now
I'd be inclined to trust him to win again

I Can't rule all of these out
But several have dodgy profiles
LAZIZAH is underaced this year
VIVRE LA REVE absent too long
LORD MURPHY is not like a winner
In 146 similar races make 4 year olds
Absent more than a Month
Returned a 0-64 record
LORD MURPHY is avoided
DAMO is too inexperienced
CAREYANNE is too inexperienced
There are a few who could capitalise
But I want to be with the 3 year old
He has momentum and won well last time

Selection

MUTINEER 6/4

Win Bet

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