0 Account Bet
0 Negative
3 Previews

Only 1 meeting today
Fontwell and Hereford are frozen off
Just a Leopardstown card of big fields left
Really not a lot I can do with that

I was in two minds whether to leave it or not
In the end I thought there were 3 races
That I could take some sort of view about


Today's Bet

No Staked Bet


T o d a y s M e s s a g e


Just about shaken off this bit of lurgy
Zero choice available today
So I will let the message stand as it is
And come back to the account after today

Today's Best Bet

Leopardstown 2.40

STELLAR NOTION 7/1

Each Way






Daily Negatives

No Official Negatives

31 correct bets from 45


Saturday's Summary

An eventful Saturday that didn't go our way
The Top of the message went L L L L
The other previews went P W W
I suppose you can argue that is a failure
It is obvious why that can happen
Because the shorter priced bets were there
The highlighted bets were far bigger prices

Taking all the previews one by one
The CADEAU DU BRESIL each way bet placed
The staking rescued us in a low conviction bet
I don't think RENNETI was doing his best
There was always a chance he might need the race
Or use yesterdays as a prep race as I said yesterday
And when he drifted out to 10/1 I thought that likely
In the end he hit the front and looked like winning
Traded long odds on in running before fading into 2nd
I think that was a prep race for the Betfair Hurdle
He was backed at 20/1 for the Newbury race yesterday

MAILSHOT won for us but that was a non event
CRAGGAKNOCK was a disappointing bet
No real shock he lost but he didn't put up much fight
PINZOLO won well beating the main danger
The SAUSALITO SUNRISE bet was unluckly
He fell early on something that can always happen
AL YARMOUK swept into the lead looking the winner
In the end the bigger horse on the rails
Worried him out of it and just got up to win
I did hint there was a chance of such things happening
My main regret is not mentioning an each way double
The results of the highlighted bets take priority
And because of that it was a horrible message
But we did have winners and a bit of bad luck as well



P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s



L e o p a r d s t o w n 1.10

2/1 Bargy Lady, 11/4 Awayinthewest, 7/2 Toe The Line
7/1 Jelan, 10/1 Ale Ambrosio, 12/1 Miss Eyecatcher
14/1 Not A Whisper, 33/1 Synopsis, 50/1 Mistheatre
50/1 Rancher Lass, 100/1 Clonearl, 100/1 Jessicor.

This is a 2m Mares Maiden hurdle

There are 57 of these races in January

BARGY LADY has 2 hurdle runs
Racing Post Hurdle Ratings of 109 and 118
She sets the standards so far
But my angles can not endorse her
If I look at 5 year olds
Who come from 2m hurdle races
There is a very modest 2-67 record
The 2 winners had 1 and 4 hurdle runs

Those with 2 hurdle runs were 0-23
Those with 3 hurdle runs were 0-7
BARGY LADY with 2 hurdle runs isn't a match
Clumsy statistic and i can improve it a bit
If I look at 5 year olds from 2m hurdle races
Who have 2 or more career starts
I find a 0-43 record since 2006
BARGY LADY does fail this 0-43 record
It does feel a bit clumsy
But given that BARGY LADY is odds on
My statistics can not support her

ALE AMBROSIO fails the same angles
AWAYINTHEWEST also fails the same angles

TOE THE LINE is an 8 year old
If you look at Mares Maiden Hurdle races
Run over 2m 2f or shorter in January/February
Horses aged 8 or more have a 3-101 record
Those with under 17 career starts were 1-86
Those from 2m 3f or shorter were 0-48
TOE THE LINE shares this 0-48 record
It puts me off a horse as old as 8 in this race

That just leaves JELAN
Not entirely convinced
And she needs to improve a bit to win
But a reasonable each way chance

Selection

JELAN 9/2

Each Way





L e o p a r d s t o w n 1.40

4/5 Capital Force, 4/1 Justmemyselfandi, Geneva Barracks
5/1 Harold Peto, 10/1 Boubafly, 10/1 The Comediologist
12/1 Great Khan, 20/1 Colwinston, 33/1 Biggs, 33/1 Kalinite
33/1 Kristian Goingwel, 33/1 Muhaafiz, 50/1 Auction Reminder
50/1 Carlitos Bay, 50/1 Din Diddle Inn, 50/1 Kickham
50/1 Political Theatre, 100/1 City Saint John.

Maiden Hurdle over 2m 2f

CAPITAL FORCE is odds on
He deserves to be favourite on his opening run
That was a Racing Post Rating of 132
His second run achieved a smaller number of 116
He needs to show more than he did last time
My angles whilst not very compelling
Don't support him enough to interest me

Maiden Hurdles in January
Run over 2m 1f 2m 2f 2m 3f
Horses aged 6
Under 3 career starts
Coming from a 2m maiden hurdle
Have a 0-11 record
CAPITAL FORCE shares this 0-11 profile

GENEVA BARRACKS is sired by Thewayyouare
His hurdlers on ground softer than good are 0-18
He's never had a hurdle winner over this far
Not convincing enough for me
I would spilt stake this race
Whilst CAPITAL FORCE has 2 runs
And GENEVA BARRACKS has 3 runs
We have 2 horses with 5 runs
HAROLD PETO and JUSTMEMYSELFANDI
I Marginally prefer their profiles
I certainly prefer their extra experience
JUSTMEMYSELFANDI has the best profile

Selection

£4.00 Each Way JUSTMEMYSELFANDI 8/1

£1.00 Win Bet HAROLD PETO 11/1






L e o p a r d s t o w n 2.40

5/1 A Toi Phil, 7/1 Stellar Notion, 8/1 Lake Takapuna
10/1 Hash Brown, 10/1 Space Cadet, 10/1 Vukovar
12/1 Rolly Baby, 14/1 Bentelimar, 14/1 Damut
14/1 New Kid In Town, 14/1 Tennis Cap, 14/1 Total Recall
16/1 Clarcam, 16/1 Kylecrue, 20/1 Rightdownthemiddle
20/1 The Paparrazi Kid, 25/1 Killer Crow
25/1 Shadow Catcher, 50/1 Ros Brin.

Graded Handicap Chase over 2m 5f

Too many runners for any kind of confidence
Just a rapid fire attempt at a selection
Past winners had the following Chase runs
10 8 10 4 10 15 17 18 6 14
I would wary about horses outside these numbers
Horses with 3 runs could be vulnerable

BENTELIMAR is 8 with 3 Chase runs
SPACE CADET is 7 with 3 Chase runs
We know all past winners had more Chase runs
And all bar 1 past winner were aged 9 or more unlike them

I threw in a few other low key angles
Against certain types of horses with absences
I am against the 6 year olds and 12 year olds
Horses aged 8 are 0-50 in this race

A TOI PHIL was a difficult call
I decided not to shortlist him
Not down from 3m Graded Novice with 4 chase runs
And not because he is a 7 year old
We clearly should prefer horses aged 9-10-11

I can only go with one horse

STELLAR NOTION
He is the perfect aged
Comes from the best trial race
The 2013 and 2016 winners
Were both 9yo's from the same trial race

Selection

STELLAR NOTION 7/1

Each Way


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