2 Previews
0 Account Bet

A desperate lack of choice today
No All weather racing for support
The national Hunt cards offer little
Just 2 quiet previews this Sunday

Ayr has been abandoned tomorrow
There are just 2 National Hunt cards
There is unlikely to be anything hot
I may start some Hennessy analysis

Hennessy Gold Cup next Saturday
Renamed as the Ladbroke Trophy
This is always a major target race
Statistics at the end of the message
We could start doing this tomorrow


Today's Bet

No Account Bet





Today's Racing

There was no chance of a bet today

Not highlighting any bets on the day

Done the Uttoxeter 2.15
Done the Exeter 3.55
Done the Hennessy Stats
But I can't recommend a bet today





Saturday's Message

There were 10 previews yesterday
And not the 9 that I had suggested
Good and Bad in a 10 race message
Results went L W L L L W W P W P
It was a shaky start but finished well
The very first loser was MR LARGE
But I did make my feelings clear here
And I hope a few backed him each way
The main bet lost the obvious low point
I have to criticise the staking there
I chose the wrong horse each way
I did that on false stamina concerns
The last 5 previews all won or placed
To some that won't make up for a loser
For others the priority is all the results
The top of the message didn't do bad
MR LARGE only lost in a photo finish
The SAM SPINNER race was excellent
I think I just chose the wrong main bet




Saturday's Review

Looking at some other performances
CUE CARD is done as a Grade 1 horse
BRISTOL DE MAI was very impressive
But something does not sit right with me

Yesterdays Racing Post Rating was 185
That just sounds ridiculously high
No rivals were anywhere near their best
His best previous R.Post Rating was 170
I can't believe It was a 185 performance

Lets put that 185 Rating into context
Denman's career best rating was 184
Earnt in the 2009 Gold Cup v Kauto Star
Did BRISTOL DE MAI really better that ?
Is BRISTOL DE MAI better than Denman ?

KAUTO STAR only beat a 185 rating once
MASTER MINDED only beat it once too
CUE CARD's career best was only a 180
MOSCOW FLYER managed a 182 rating
These are legends of the turf
Are we really expected to believe
BRISTOL DE MAI achieved a rating
Many of the games legends never did

If a rating of 185 is accurate
On Racing Post Ratings it was brilliant
The best National Hunt performance
Since Sprinter Sacre way back in 2013

What did he really beat
CUE CARD who was 11 year old
Failed a generic 20 year stat yesterday
The others were out of form or ran badly

MIN won nicely at long odds on
He can beat Douvan or Altior in March
3rd favourite in the Champion Chase
Has to be improve but he can win that

The Champion Hurdle 3rd fav flopped
Defi Du Seuil makes no appeal aged 5
BUVEAU D'AIR is 4/1 second favourite
The best of the year each way for me
Allowing for a cruel injury or setback




PROFILES & PREVIEWS



Uttoxeter 2.15

11/10 Krackatoa King, 5/1 Rigadin De Beauchene,
5/1 Zephyros Bleu, 7/1 Wood Yer, 8/1 Bears Rails
10/1 Hansupfordetroit.

3m 2f Handicap Chase

KRACKATOA KING has raced once this year
Sets the standard of horses that have raced

The problem with many of his rivals
They have not shown form or fitness

ZEPHYROS BLEU has been the gamble
Clearly fancied
He has raced once this year
But he was beaten 86 lengths
Perhaps he needs another run

November and December
Handicap Chases over 3m 1f +
Class 6 or higher

Horses aged 5-6-7
1 Run this season
2 or more chase runs
Beaten over 30 lengths
Return a 0-51 record
ZEPHYROS BLEU shares this record
That tells me he may want another run

BEAR RAILS raced once this year
Pulled up in that race
Pulled up in his final race last year
Obvious doubts about what he will offer

WOOD YER pulled up last time as well
His profile weakened by his age
He is 11 and has raced just once this year

HANDSUPFORDETROIT is hard to like
12 years old and hammered 8 days ago

RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE is also 12
He has a 259 day absence to overcome
Horses that age do occasionally win
But serious doubts as to what to expect

KRACKATOA KING ran well on debut
Produced a Racing Post Rating of 118
That might well be enough to take this
If you look at his numbers "2nd time out"
He has produced figures of 131 and 128
Both of those figures would take this
He is consistent and rarely runs poorly
Since his Chase debut his last 9 starts
Have seem him finish 1-2-3-4 every time
He does look the safest choice to win

Selection

KRACKATOA KING 7/4

Win Bet





Exeter 3.55

7/4 Padleyourowncanoe, 7/2 Norse Light,
4/1 Dusky Raider, 8/1 Thundering Home,
10/1 Collodi, 12/1 Edvardo, 14/1 Kristjano
16/1 Silver Quay.

Handicap Hurdle

PADLEYOUROWNCANOE is a 3 year old
He is taking on older horses
May not be easy at Exeter on soft ground

The issue with 3 year olds is complicated
Handicap hurdles in November/December
Any distance and any class of race
There were 12 winners aged 3
They all ran in Class 5 or lower
Those in Class 4 or higher were 0-23
This is a Class 4 race
The winners aged 3
Tended to win on smaller sharper tracks
Such as Fakenham Taunton Plumpton
None won at a track as big as this
PADLEYOUROWNCANOE is no negative
He has had a stable upgrade recently too
But I am going to take him on

KRISTJANO is not my first choice
Not with a 142 day absence
EDVARDO's absence also puts me off
SILVER QUAY looks wrong

NORSE LIGHT won recently
DUSKY RAIDER won recently
I felt both were potential savers
But I prefer older horses in this race

THUNDERING HOME the speculative pick
Hard to know if last time was a return to form
But more than once he has won races
Following a heavy defeat on his last start
This is his best track
Most effective in a smaller field
Taking a drop in class he could win this
COLLODI can not be ruled out


Selection

£4 Each Way THUNDERING HOME 6/1

£2 Win Bet COLLODI 6/1






Next Saturday

Newbury 3.00

Ladbrokes Trophy Chase

Formerly known as

The Hennessy Gold Cup

Official Rating of 145 is required
The last 11 winners were rated at least that

Racing Post Ratings off 158 + are a guide
Look at the last 10 winners of this race
Look at the best ratings they achieved
Before winning this race
165 163 158 151 167 160 160 173 169 158

November and December
Listed + Graded Handicap Chases
Any distance in these 2 months
8 year olds absent more than 56 days
Have a miserable 1-150 record
Horses aged 8 absent over 8 weeks
In Graded races have a 0-114 record

Lighter raced horses are superior
I would prefer under 15 Chase runs
Past winners had these Chase races
7 9 7 11 4 14 3 12 23 5 4
4 6 4 11 6 5 6 7 11 5 13 7

Only 1 of the last 23 winners
Had 15 or more Chase runs
The only winner with 3 Chase starts
Was Diamond Harry in 2011

Past winners had these National Hunt runs
16 25 16 14 10 20 12 16 23 10 12
11 6 6 18 18 16 12 7 14 5 17 16
Horses with under 8 lifetime starts
Have not won this race since 2004
No horse has won with 26 + runs
Only 2 have won with more than 20
I'd avoid horses with plenty of runs

Horses aged 11 or more should be opposed
The last ones to win were in 1957 and 1967

Horses aged 10 underperform
The last winner was back in 1981
Horses aged 10 + are 0-71 since 1988

Horses aged 9
Have a 3-86 record since 1992
They won just 3 of the last 27 renewals
They won from ratings of 174 139 145
They had 17 7 15 National Hunt runs
They had 12 7 8 Chase runs
Two ran that season having 7-8 runs
The other (Denman) a seasonal debutant
Seasonal debutants aged 9 + are 1-48

Horses aged 8
Have a 5-83 record since 1992
They had all had a race that season
8yo's first time out 0-25 since 1992
The 5 winners aged 8
Had 25 20 18 14 17 National Hunt runs
Had 9 14 16 11 13 Chase runs
Won from official ratings of 155 146 149 162 148

Horses aged 7
Have a 11-122 record since 1992
5 seasonal debutant winners aged 7
They all had Grade 1 form before
They had 4 3 5 4 6 previous Chase starts
They won this race in 2001 2005 2007 2010 2012

Horses aged 6
have a 6-52 record since 1992
They had 1 1 0 1 2 1 runs this season
Seasonal debutant 6yo's are 1-15
He (State Of Play) had 4 Chase starts
6yo's are best with a recent run
The 6 winners aged 6
Had 16 15 12 6 6 16 National Hunt runs
The 6 winners aged 6
Had 11 7 4 6 4 7 previous chase runs
They won from these official ratings
155 147 145 142 140 135

I would want Grade 1-2 form
Only 3 past winners did not
All 3 had Under 9 career starts
These 3 had 4 5 7 Chase runs
Only lightly races types win this
If lacking Grade 1-2 form

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