9 Previews
1 Account Bet

This is a bank Holiday weekend
But far from a typical Saturday
Only 4 meetings in Britain today

These cards look utter garbage
Just small heavy ground fields
Making me very cautions today

I would not follow the message
Just cherry pick one or two bets
Sunday may be the stronger day



Account Bet

Win Bet and Saver

Newbury 3.00

£7.50 KILBRICKEN STORM 3/1-7/2

£2.50 POETIC RHYTHM 3/1







Message Bets

Taunton 12.50 - Dan McGrue 13/8
Taunton 1.25 - Silent Steps 6/4
Each Way Double


Lingfield 1.10

£8.50 Win Bet Line Of Beauty 6/4
£1.50 Win Bet Relevant 6/1


Newbury 3.00

£7.50 Win Bet Kilbricken Storm 100/30
£2.50 Win Bet Poetic Rhythm 3/1





Today's Message


I can't endorse this message
There are 9 previews
I have suggested 3 bets

I want to keep the account bets up
Most days the idea is to have one
Even if they are staked very safely

There are 3 horses today
All similar prices
All serious chances
All suitable for each way doubles

Taunton 12.50 - Dan McGrue 13/8
Lingfield 1.10 - Line Of Beauty 6/4
Taunton 1.25 - Silent Steps 6/4

Getting the right staking
The right combination of bet
Is down to little more than luck
I don't really want to do that

Wasted time trying to craft silly
each ways doubles not least
with Line Of Beauty who I did
also consider as a win single.

In the end I wnet to Newbury
Not the bets of frames
But we have the number horses
Who I am hoping are more likely
To cope with the demand of the race.





Friday's Review

No losers in 5 Thursday previews
No winner in the 4 Friday previews
Not the kind of symmetry I'd want
Southwell spanked me yesterday
We did the right thing going no bet
The races appeared very untypical
I feel the surface was hard to read
I blame the 12.15 race on the pace
Those leaders went off too quickly
But I got 4 races I looked at wrong
Great Thursday with a winning bet
But a depressing Friday message
Faugheen pulled up in his trial race
I can't say I am surprised he did that
We have discussed him a lot lately
Far too much to ask after his injury
Our bet Buveau D'Air is odds on
I am laying him at 4/5 for a free bet
Just incase anything happens now
Having got 9/2 - 4/1 it makes sense
At least the Darts handicap bet won
And Van Gerwin also safely through




PROFILES & PREVIEWS


LINGFIELD 11.30

9/4 Joegogo, 5/2 City Gent,
3/1 Montague, 6/1 Zabaletaswansong,
15/2 Mossketeer

6f Nursery
More than a difficult start
Wouldn't know where to start
The only observation I made
MONTAGUE has a 9 day break
The others are all off 3 weeks +
Could that mean an advantage ?
CITY GENT in contrast
Has raced just once in 81 days
I just thought maybe that helped
Perhaps MONTAGUE is the fittest
In a race of If Buts and Maybes
I am taking the fitter topweights

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet MONTAGUE 7/2

£2.50 Win Bet JOEGOGO 11/4





LINGFIELD 12.00

11/4 Tropics, 3/1 Dubai One, 5/1 Pearl Spectre,
5/1 Reckless Endeavour, 7/1 Kasbah, 16/1 Stellarta,
20/1 Leo Minor, Zac Brown, 25/1 Doc Sportello
33/1 Turanga Leela.

6f Handicap

It seems to be a race of two types
Those that are underraced or lack runs
Those that are fitter than the others
I think the fitter horses are these
And that one should be the winner

KASBAH
TROPICS
PEARL SPECTRE
RECKLESS ENDEAVOUR


DUBAI ONE complicates things
Godolphin 3yo filly absent 260 days
They have won with a similar type
That was My Call back in 2015
She had 5 months off the track
DUBAI ONE has 8 months off though

October November December
Handicaps
Any Class
Any Distance
Fillies aged 3
Over 5 career starts
Absent more than 187 days
Return a 0-67 record in these months
DUBAI ONE is therefore not my choice

I'm opposing the following horses too
LEO MINOR has just 1 run in 2017
DOC SPORTELLO has 1 run in 91 days
TURANGA LEELA looks outclassed
ZAC BROWN has raced once in 137 days
STELLARTA is a mare with 1 run in 77 days
From a low scoring stable she is rejected

Now onto the fitter horses

KASBAH comes from a 5f race
Not keen on that or his stable
But statistically I can't rule him out

TROPICS won last time out
Not many 9 year olds win these races
None did so that won last time out
TROPICS has never raced here before
Fit and in form and positives
But asking a lot for a 9yo to follow up

PEARL SPECTRE is running very well
If you look at his Racing Post Ratings
2 of his last 4 runs were career bests
The issue with him is the 6f distance
Will he get outpaced again over this short

RECKLESS ENDEAVOUR has a good profile
He was entitled to need his last run
Horses aged 4 from 7f races
Running within 15 days
Beaten under 10 lengths last time
Have a 3-14 record in similar races

I was planning to go
RECKLESS ENDEAVOUR 4/1 each way
But he is now a 11/4 short
Now it has to be an alternative bet

Selection

RECKLESS ENDEAVOUR 11/4

I would play it this way

Lingfield 12.00 - RECKLESS ENDEAVOUR 11/4

Taunton 1.25 - SILENT STEPS 6/4

£3 Win Bet on Both horses

£2 Each Way Double on both







TAUNTON 12.15

8/13 Kings Inn, 7/2 Vaziani,
6/1 Marettimo, 10/1 Sin Sin,
20/1 Moynihans Girl, 33/1 Martha's Dream,
50/1 Dartmoor Girl.

Juvenile Hurdle
We have an odds on favourite
3 rank outsiders
And 3 hard to read in the middle order

KINGS INN is the odds on favourite
But I can't bet him on his pedigree
It may end up foolish to oppose him
But at odds on he didn't interest me
Not sired by Mawatheeq
Flat bred late maturing sire
Never had a hurdle winner on soft/heavy
Out of a Street Cry Dam as well
Stamina worries me amonget other things
He may end up being better class
Certainly comes from the best stable
But I have to look elsewhere

Selection

Small Stakes
We can only guess here

£7.50 Win Bet VAZIANI 5/1

£1.25 Win Bet MARETTINO 7/1

£1.25 Win Bet SIN SIN 6/1



TAUNTON 12.50

5/4 Don't Ask, 11/4 Dan McGrue,
20/1 Skinflint, 20/1 Gertie Getaway, River Bray,
20/1 Drumlee City, Inaminna, Must Havea Flutter,
20/1 Stockburn, 20/1 Faint Hope, 40/1 Grand Rigel,
40/1 King's Temple, 50/1 Sparky's Spirit,
66/1 Cranbrook Causeway.

2m 3f Novice Hurdle
Not many can win this race
There are only 2 runners under 12/1

I am doing this race
As I think it offers an each way double bet

DAN MCGRUE has raced twice over hurdles
Went into a lot of notebooks first time
Did not stay 3 miles last time

DON'T ASK has every chance
But he has less hurdling experience
I'd prefer to side with the better stable
And the horse down in trip and not up

Selection

DAN MCGRUE 7/4

Each Way double or Win Bet




LINGFIELD 1.10

9/4 Line Of Beauty, 100/30 Colourful Career,
4/1 Shaella, 13/2 Relevant, 9/1 Hail Cloud,
12/1 Burrumbeet, 20/1 Barrsbrook, Faheem,
20/1 Reedway, 33/1 I'm Right On Time, Napoleon
50/1 Catherinethegrace.

10f Maiden race

No obvious pathway here
Lots of profiles I'd avoid
BURRUMBEET is unraced drawn 12
Blinkered on his debut as well
If he wins he wins but not for me
SHAELLA drops from 13f to 10f
With 1 lifetime start thats a bit radical
HAIL CLOUD had his debut 17 days ago
His 27 length defeat was too much

COLOURFUL CAREER steps up from 8f
LINE OF BEAUTY steps up from 8f as well

In Similar December maidens
Horses from 8f
Running within 36 days
Show a 0-22 record
I don't see this as a significant angle
But it does throw up an alternative

RELEVANT could be very dangerous
She has a good recent run in a handicap
RELEVANT each way was an option

COLOURFUL CAREER can't be ruled out
But I prefer the two fillies against her

LINE OF BEAUTY looks about to win
I made him a negative last time out
Coming down 3 furlongs hurt his profile
He should have won that race
Would have without that inconvenience
He went off too hard at Southwell before
Travelled beautifully before the petrol ran out

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet LINE OF BEAUTY 6/4

£1.50 Win Bet RELEVANT 6/1






TAUNTON 1.25

15/8 Silent Steps, 7/2 Cap Horner,
4/1 Roll The Dough, 7/1 Indy Five,
6/1 Sydney De Baune, 12/1 All Kings,
25/1 Janes Boutique 40/1 Honourable Henry.

2m 7f Novice Handicap Chase

SILENT STEPS should go close here
Top class stable
Solid Chasing debut last time
Which on the numbers was a career best

There are sufficient doubts about some
To see SILENT STEPS as the right bet
For an each way double

INDY FIVE may want another race
He was well beaten on his seasonal debut
SYDNEY DE BAUNE steps up 7 furlongs

ROLL THE DOUGH doesn't quite stay
He is so well treated but may want 2m 4f
He could get away with it here
This is 2f shorter than his last race
But at the 2f market last time he was shot

Selection

£8 Win Bet SILENT STEPS 6/4

£2 Win Bet ROLL THE DOUGH 4/1

I'd rather use Silent Steps
In an each way double bet





HAYDOCK 2.10

5/1 Whiskey Chaser, 11/2 West Of The Edge,
6/1 Emperor's Choice, Gold Opera, Jennys Surprise,
6/1 Lessons In Milan, 9/1 Vieux Lille, 10/1 Harry The Viking
14/1 Streets Of Promise, 16/1 Belmount.

3m 3f Handicap Chase

My angles are weak in this race
On a normal day I would have left it

27 similar races
There are so many in this race
That just look unacceptable

Look at horses with 1 run that year
The only winners in similar races
Finished within 16 lengths of the winner
I don't want a horse that raced once
That was beaten out of sight recently

LESSONS IN MILAN is unsafe
Pulled up on his comeback
Not hard to see other targets looming
VIEUX LILLE is a lightly raced chaser
His 1st run this year was a heavy defeat
I wanted a better run last time out
May need another given his absence

BELLMOUNT pulled up last time
STREET OF PROMISE ran once this year
Beaten 42 lengths damages his profile
WEST OF THE EDGE ran 11 days ago
Beaten 67 lengths must be a concern
Fair enough that was over hurdles
But it is still a heavy thrashing

November and December
Handicap Chases over 3m 3f +
Class 6 or higher since 2008
Horses running within 13 days
Beaten over 20 lengths last time
Have a 0-61 record in these races
WEST OF THE EDGE fails this profile

EMPERORS CHOICE has 1 recent run
Beaten 32 lengths damages his profile
HARRY THE VIKING just won at 25/1
He is 12 years old and hard to trust

JENNYS SURPRISE must be respected
With 2 recent runs that were acceptable
But by Hawk Wing will he stay 3m 3f on soft
She has won over 3m 2f on Good to soft
None on soft or heavy won past 3m yet

GOLD OPERA has 1 run this season
That was a 1 length defeat 45 days ago
He is shortlistable on that profile
And his last run was a career best

WHISKEY CHASER won last time
With so few lacking good recent form
He is another with strong claims

Selection

Small Stakes

£4 Each Way WHISKEY CHASER 5/1

£1 Win Bet GOLD OPERA 9/1

£1 Win Bet JENNYS SURPRISE 10/1






NEWBURY 2.25

4/1 Daklondike, 11/2 Knockanrawley, 6/1 Wuff,
7/1 Grand Vision, Potters Legend, 9/1 Henllan Harri,
10/1 Shotgun Paddy, Vieux Lille, 25/1 Tanit River.

Mandarin Handicap
3m 2f Handicap Chase
This used to be run at 3 miles
6 years ago the race went to 3m 2f
Did some prep work on this yesterday

The 6 past winners
Had the following Chase runs
7 8 4 8 16 6

5 of the 6 winners had 8 or fewer Chases
I would much prefer a horse offering that

20 Chases - Shotgun Paddy
15 Chases - Henllan Harri
11 Chases - Knockanrawley
11 Chases - Wuff
10 Chases - Grand Vision
10 Chases - Potters Legend
7 Chases - Tanit River
5 Chases - Vieux Lille
4 Chases - Daklondike

Horses aged 5 trouble me
None have won this race before
This statistic is quite interesting
It is about 5 year olds
In long distance chases
When in double figure fields

December Handicap Chases
2m 6f or more since 2007
Class 4 or higher
Over 10 runners
Horses with this profile are 0-26

We only have 11 runners today
I was hoping for a bigger field

DAKLONDIKE is a 5 year old
He has to carry a big weight

Since this became a 3m 2f race
None of the winners were aged 10 +
If I look at 70 similar Handicap Chases
The closest matches in December
Horses aged 10 or more struggled
GRAND VISION is 11 going up in trip
He's only raced once this season
SHOTGUN PADDY is a 10yo
Every run seems to be a false dawn

HENLLAN HARRI pulled up last time
TANIT RIVER has the same problem
VIEUX LILLE is a lightly raced chaser
His 1st run this year was a heavy defeat
I wanted a better run last time
And he may need another given his absence

I was shortlisting 3
But now we have 2 non runners
And a field of only 8
My 5 year old stat is now invalid
DAKLONDIKE also has an advantage
He has more recent runs than the rest

KNOCKANRAWLEY won this in 2014
Although 3 years older and 9 now
He has still only had 11 Chase runs
I think he has to be a positive
But he could have other targets
I'd prefer 2 or more runs this year
It is heavy ground after all
And the 6 past winners
Had 3 1 2 2 4 2 runs that season

WUFF is a 9 year old
Not sure about the combination
Having 1 run this year and topweight
Statistically thats not a problem

POTTERS LEGEND ran in the Hennessy
Needs to bounce back from a poor run

Mess,
I like the horses with most recent runs
DAKLONDIKE
POTTERS LEGEND

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet POTTERS LEGEND 5/1

£1.50 Win Bet DAKLONDIKE 5/1

£1.50 Win Bet WUFF 6/1






NEWBURY 3.00

5/2 Kilbricken Storm, 11/4 Poetic Rhythm,
3/1 Dame Rose, 4/1 Way Back Then, 12/1 Mulcahys Hill
16/1 Dans Le Vent.

Challow Hurdle
Grade 1 Novice Hurdle over 2m 4f

Racing Post Ratings of past winners
Ratings they achieved on the day
146 153 148 150 151 149 147 145 154 143
It takes a 140 + Rating to win this race
Only 2 horses have achieved that so far

KILBRICKEN STORM
POETIC RHYTHM

DAME ROSE is a 4yo filly
Graded Novice Hurdles
Any time of year
Any Distance since 2007
Fillies aged 4
Have a 0-25 record in all of them
DAME ROSE is a 4yo filly
With no having won so far she is out

Past winners had the following runs
Thats career starts over any codes
7 5 21 5 11 4 2 7 4 11
In the last 10 renewals of this race
9 of the winners had 4 or more runs
WAY BACK WHEN only has 2 runs
He seems short of runs and underaced
He has raced just once over hurdles
That could catch him out on the ground
The only lightly raced winner was Backspin
He was a year younger winning in 2010

MULCAHYS HILL didn't offer enough
No winners came from a maiden hurdle
DANS LE VENT is a 4 year old
His best Hurdling Racing Post Rating is 123
He faces horses with 143 and 149 ratings
His numbers are too low for confidence

2 horses offer more
Fit Profiles
Strong numbers
Enough experience

The last 6 winners came into this race
With the following Racing Post Ratings
143 140 144 130 142 156
5 of the last 6
Had a rating of 140 or more
Only 2 horses today have achieved this

KILBRICKEN STORM
POETIC RHYTHM

We can bet both
And not lose if either win

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet KILBRICKEN STORM 3/1-7/2

£2.50 Win Bet POETIC RHYTHM 3/1

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