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Chelmsford 7.30

£7 Win Bet LUCYMAI 5/1

£3 Win Bet SALATEEN 11/4



Today's Message


2 Previews

Clonmel 12.05

£5 Win Bet Makka Pakka 5/1
£5 Win Bet Smoking Gun Evens

Chelmsford 7.30

£7 Win Bet Lucymai 5/1
£3 Win Bet Salateen 11/4



There will be bets this weekend
Appreciate it has been quiet lately

Recent midweek cards are so grim
They have been as boring as Brexit

When I hear about the Irish backstop
I think of Sundays John Durkan Chase

There is a Scottish backstop as well
Thats the 4 miler at Kelso on Sunday
We have 10 miles of misery in 2 days

The 3m2f Becher chase is sortable
The 3m 5f London Marathon as well
The 4m of the Borders National too

Going to target all 3 of these races
Not sure if any will have strong bets
But there will be some this weekend

Not that keen on this message
Uncoordinated and lacks symmetry

My Clonmel bet is the safer option
I prefer safety but its a weak market
And whilst the Chelsmford 7.30 bet
Is in a horribly unpleasant small field
There is some logic to having a go


Clonmel 12.05

£5 Win Bet Makka Pakka 5/1
£5 Win Bet Smoking Gun Evens

Not the strongest of markets
This feels quite a sensible bet
More likely to break level than win
But the staking makes it worth it

Chelmsford 7.30

£7 Win Bet Lucymai 5/1
£3 Win Bet Salateen 11/4

Nasty small field
We have the class horses
With the best recent runs
Hoping that will be enough





Wednesday's Review

The message full of placed bets
Tricky choice which bet to go for
I decided on Modern Warfair e/w
Finished 2nd behind the favourite
Ran well in a defensive message
Most of those selections ran well
But hard to separate the best bet



PROFILES & PREVIEWS

Incorporating

Angles @ Observations



Clonmel 12.05

13/8 Smoking Gun, 4/1 Makka Pakka, 13/2 Dynamic Allen,
8/1 A Dos No Bueno, 10/1 Golan Cloud, Longtimesincejaspr,
12/1 Getaday, Watching Brief, 16/1 Lesssaidthebetter,
20/1 Kiss Me Kayf, 25/1 Brazen Bay, Dix De Der,
33/1 Popcorn Sutton.

Maiden Hurdle

SMOKING GUN is well backed
The Racing Post select him
They are making assumptions
But understandable why they do

I normally avoid horses in these races
Who start 66/1 or more last time out

Maiden Hurdles in December
Any and every distance
Horses aged 4 or more
Starting 66/1 or more last time
Coming from a Maiden Hurdle
Within the last 3 months
Return a miserable 1-500 record

MAKKA PAKKA started 66/1 last time
GETADAY started 66/1 last time
A DOS NO BUENO started 66/1 last time

This is only a small pointer
That makes assumptions about ability
But common sense dictates a 66/1 chance
Displays low confidence about a horse
And that 1-500 record reflects that
Easier to see how the Racing Post
Have arrived at their 11/10 selection
The Market suggests they are correct

I just can't risk him win only at evens
With a very long absence to overcome
Last years form was nothing special
He looked slow to me on his last start

MAKKA PAKKA did run well last time
Whilst he did start 66/1 in that race
I am prepared to forgive him that
There was a long odds on favourite
So everything started big in that race
Racing Post Rating of 103
If he can improve from that figure
He should be going close here
This race looks ideal for a split stake
We can have the favourite on side
And an improver ready to exploit
Any flaws in the favourites profile

Selection

£5 Win Bet MAKKA PAKKA 5/1

£5 Win Bet SMOKING GUN 11/10





Wincanton 1.30

3/1 Cobolobo, 4/1 Some Chaos, 6/1 Reikers Island,
7/1 Captain Buck's, 8/1 Mercers Court, 9/1 Royal Palladium,
10/1 Flaming Charmer, 12/1 Ruperra Tom, Wizards Bridge,
16/1 Canyouringmeback.

Silver Buck Chase
Handicap over 3m 1f

COBOLOBO has 1 chase run
No strong objection to that
But it was only a Novice Chase
He has plenty of weight as well
And a stable usually best avoided

I'd avoid the exposed horses
The recent winners of this race
All had under 14 chase starts
None of them came from novice races
CAPTAIN BUCK's passed these angles
One of the very few that did that
He looks back in his right grade now
But he is quirky and may just prefer 3m
Could easily appeal as a saver
SOME CHAOS won last time
Although it was a Novice Handicap
His numbers are better than most

SOME CHAOS is my selection
I was going each way at 4/1
Was prepared to when he went 100/30
But now he is 5/2 given up that idea

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet SOME CHAOS 5/2

£1.50 Win Bet CAPTAIN BUCK 6/1





Each Way Double

Clonmel 1.45 - SHES MADE IT 7/4-2/1

Clonmel 2.20 - MONATOMIC 7/4

Each Way Double

Both of these horses
Would be my selection in their races
But given their prices and profiles
Neither of them appealed as win bets
Not in the field sizes they have to negotiate
Both have strong place chances as well
The sensible solution for both of these
Would be an each way double bet
Both have a lot of dead wood in their races
Shes Made It has 4 places on her side
The best last time out numbers as well
Monatomic should place with a clear round
This looked the right way to play these races




Market Rasen 3.30

2/1 First Quest, 5/1 Lily Of Leysbourne,
6/1 Keel Over, Love Lane, Toboggan's Fire,
16/1 Wot A Shot, 20/1 Maroc.

2m Handicap Hurdle
Conditional Jockeys

FIRST QUEST is 4yo
He has 15 lifetime starts
He has a 130 day absence

December Handicap Hurdles
Any Distance
Any Class
Horses aged 4
Over 12 career starts
Absent more than 55 days
Have a 0-63 record
FIRST QUESTR fails this 0-63 angle
We should probably avoid him
This race will require a guess

KEEL OVER is quite unorthodox

LILY OF LEYSBOURNE is a 5yo mare
Mares like her from non handicap hurdles
Can and do win these races
None like her dropped from 2m 4f races
Not a negative but neither a safe profile
LOVE LANE is a mare
Ran well on her seasonal debut
That was a better race than this
She really is not very experienced
And she has to carry topweight as well

TOBOGGAN'S FIRE just shaded it
She is also a mare but has experience
She has more runs this season as well
Her numbers suggest she can win off 103

I wanted to go each way
But there is now a non runner

Selection

£6 Win Bet TOBOGGAN'S FIRE 7/1-9/1

£4 Win Bet LILY OF LEYSBOURNE 7/2



Chelmsford 7.30

11/4 Crossing The Line, Salateen,
4/1 Lucymai, 5/1 Boy In The Bar,
7/1 Call Out Loud, 8/1 Ultimate Avenue.

7f Handicap in
Class 2 race

SALATEEN is topweight
Has to concede weight to these
But is running serious numbers
The last 3 of them at Lingfield
But has some big numbers here

Some of these are rated far lower
CALL OUT LORD is rated only 84
He's never been in this class before
He's raced just once since July 2018
ULTIMATE AVENUE has 76 days off
Hardly ideal in a Class 2 handicap
CROSSING THE LINE is a 3yo filly
She has a nasty 105 day absence
She may win but given the choice
I would rather side with Salateen
Who is running far better figures
BOY IN THE BAR has a chance
But a 7yo with 1 run in just 75 days
SALATEEN has 5 runs in that time
Margins are thin luck factor is high
SALATEEN offers most positives
Not a strong standard for a Class 2

LUCYMAI is also interesting
One of the class horses in the race
One of the few with recent runs too
Her best numbers are over 7f here
She probably went off too quickly last time
Outclassed in Listed class before that
She could win this from the front

Best strategy here
Could be bet the class horses
Who have the best recent runs
Rather than the lower rated horses
Who don't have recent runs

Selection


£7 Win Bet LUCYMAI 5/1

£3 Win Bet SALATEEN 5/2 - 11/4



Chelmsford 8.30

13/8 Saaheq, 7/2 Choice Encounter,
8/1 Bowson Fred, Excellent George,
10/1 Equimou, 12/1 Dotted Swiss, 12/1 Machree,
14/1 Ornate, 16/1 Acclaim The Nation,
33/1 Exceedingly Diva.

5f Handicap
0-87 rated horses

Racing Post Ratings
Last time out

87 Bowson Fred
85 Equimou
84 Choice Encounter
83 Saaheq

All other horses
Have ratings of 78 or lower

BOWSON FRED comes out top
He did an 87 Racing Post Rating last time
Nothing significant about any of the above
But there could be if you combine that
With the following angle about fitness

Runs in the last 2 Months

4 Bowson Fred
4 Ornate
3 Equimou
1 Saaheq
1 Excellent George
1 Machree
1 Choice Encounter
1 Dotted Swiss
1 Exceedingly Diva
0 Acclaim The Nation

BOWSON FRED - 4 runs in 2 months
More than any other horse in the race
So he has the best last time number
And also the most recent runs

What is quite striking here
How short of recent runs some of these are

DOTTED SWISS a filly with 1 run in 82 days

EXCEEDINGLY DIVA a filly with 1 run in 95 days

MACHREE is also a 3yo filly
She has raced just once in over 2 months

ACCLAIM THE NATION has 58 days absence

CHOICE ENCOUNTER is a 3 year old
He has not raced in 58 days
He has raced once in just 161 days

EXCELLENT GEORGE is an exposed 6yo
He has raced just once in 68 days now
Probably needs a career best to win this
Given he has yet to win rated 85 or more

ORNATE has 4 runs in the last 2 months
Has to be forgiven a 12 length defeat last time
Right to point out that was in a Listed race
And this is 3 grades lower than this race
But winners down so far in class
Tend not to win similar races

SAAHEQ ran reasonably last time
Lightly raced still room for improvement
But in the same time he has raced once
Bowson Fred has raced 4 times
And in a better class of race as well

EQUIMOU has recent runs
She is a 4yo filly with backclass
She gets the small field she needs
Her record over 5f
Fields of 10 or fewer
Class 2 or lower
Running within 25 days
EQUIMOU has a 4-9 record
She is inconsistent though
And is drifting badly as well

BOWSON FRED is shortlisted
The main worry about his chance
He is drawn 10 of 10
Has a 7lbs claimer from the highest draw
His jockey hasn't had a winner since 2017

Playing it this way

£4.50 Each Way BOWSON FRED 7/1-9/1

£1.00 Win Bet EQUIMOU 20/1





FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


3 target races

Welsh National
London National
Becher Chase

Started the Welsh National yesterday
Very happy with progress in that race
There are trial races this weekend
Will pick this race up early next week

London National is my main target
This race has 24 hour declarations
Annoying so leaving this to Saturday

Becher Chase

Declarations coming through now
Should have the final field shortly
Today a few ante post stats for this
Unsure how much help they will be
I might pick this race up tomorrow


Ante Post Statistics

Saturday

Aintree 1.30pm

Becher Chase

5/1 Blaklion 6/1 Ballyoptic 7/1 Theatre Territory
8/1 The Last Samuri 14/1 Rock The Kasbah 14/1 Don Poli
14/1 Present Man 16/1 General Principle 16/1 Calett Mad
16/1 Monbeg Notorious 16/1 Vieux Lion Rouge, Ultragold
16/1 Crosshue Boy 20/1 Missed Approach 20/1 Exitas
25/1 Highland Lodge 25/1 Go Conquer 25/1 Call It Magic
25/1 Walk In The Mill 25/1 Noble Endeavor 25/1 Warriors Tale
25/1 Regal Flow 25/1 Kimberlite Candy 25/1 Federici
33/1 Dare To Endeavour 33/1 Just A Par 33/1 Fine Theatre
33/1 Mustmeetalady

Becher Chase
3m 2f Graded Handicap
Grand National fences

Blaklion won the race in 2017
Vieux Lion Rouge won the race in 2016
Highland Lodge won the race in 2015

Last years Blaklion was rated 153
The previous 18 winners of this
Were all rated 148 or lower

The race could be getting classier
But always been hard for high weights

Past winners
Had the following Chase runs
13 7 16 19 18 36 13 25 17 20 4

Avoid horses with poor recent runs
Horses that raced this season
Coming from a Handicap Chase
Beaten over 10 lengths last time out
Have a 0-76 record in this race since 1998

Horses aged 6 are 0-9
Do not often run in this race
These are quitre hard to rate
Only 9 have tried since 1997
They finished 4 2 F 4 3 6 F 4 UR
Placed horses were 14/1 25/1 17/2 20/1 33/1
Horses aged 6 or 7
With over 9 Chase runs are 0-28
Horses aged 6 or 7
With 10st 9lbs or more are 0-22

Horses aged 7
Have a 2-39 record since 10
Won 3 of the last 25 renewals
All 3 winners had 10st 9lbs or less
All 3 winners had under 9 Chase starts
Horses aged 6 or 7
With over 9 Chase runs are 0-28

Horses aged 8 are 4-68 since 1997
They had 16 4 13 13 chase runs
Have won 3 of the last 15 renewals
Last years 8yo winner had 11st 6lbs
None have yet won with more weight

Horses aged 9
Won 5 of the last 10 renewals
They had 16 18 13 17 20 chase runs

Horses aged 11 or more are 4-61
Those with 11st or more are 0-18
None have won with 11st + since it started

Horses from hurdles this year are 0-36

Horses with 21 or more chase starts
Have a 2-63 record in this race

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