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This is quite a heavy message
Probably a little bit too chatty
With interesting untypical bets

There are 4 previews today
Future Betting Angles is active
No message tomorrow now
Bad weather changed plans

I suddenly realised something
As Cheltenham/Aintree looms
We are only 40 short days away
From the new 2018 Flat season

No Account Bet


Message Bets

Wolverhampton 7.10

£4.00 Each Way ASK THE GURU 5/1

£2.00 Win Bet LAMBRINI LEGACY 5/1




No Message Tomorrow

Change of Plan
Lingfield is abandoned
Just 2 meetings now
Including Ayr on heavy
So the sensible day to drop
As every other day has 4 + meetings




Todays Message

Fresh week so where are we

Well the number of bets has dropped
My elbow which sorted out now and fine
That did put a big spanner in the works
And when not right physically or mentally
I sabotage the account and stop betting
I should really be account betting today
I get that the Lions need more red meat
But decided nothing was strong enough


The last 5 account bets
Have gone W L L W W
The 3 winners between 9/4-11/2
One of the 2 losers Samovar
Was robbed and lost in a photo
So it should have been 4 out of 5 winners
So are not doing much wrong at all
It is just that sometimes we go quiet
For any number of reasons
Whilst the service can be criticised
It is actually performing very well
Results and analysis are accurate
I'm trying to make it enjoyable too


29 days to Cheltenham
40 days to the 2018 Flat Season
61 days to the Grand National

Future Betting Angles carries on
Feedback tells me it is a net positive
I can look at it in a good and bad light
It takes time and adds to the pressure
But it helps to focus me
It keeps my interest in messages high
And it motivates me as well
And whilst it could be better
And there will be some flops in these
It does feel an overall net positive
And it has throw up some great bets

The bet exciting me most right now
Josies Orders in the Cross Country
William Hill Bet365 and Paddy Power
7/1 each way with a run guaranteed
That bet looks pretty good to me
Up there with the Buveau D'Air bet
Must be in the top 3 bets of the year

Today

Too much to read
4 quirky races though
That don't offer traditional bets

I chose what I felt was the best
But I wasn't sure how strong it was


Todays Best Bet

Wolverhampton 7.10

£4.00 Each Way ASK THE GURU 5/1

£2.00 Win Bet LAMBRINI LEGACY 5/1






Sundays Review

Sunday far better than Saturday
We didn't get that much wrong
The football was one casualty
Obviously read it badly wrong
My previews finished W W L W
Made a nice overall daily profit
But didn't make up for Saturday
The main bet in a cross country
It was an almost perfect result
AUVERGNAT 5/2 the days best
Delivered and won it in a photo
Cheltenham bet Josies Orders
Running well beaten in a photo
Delighted with Josie's Orders
Currently 7/1 across the board
He's now had 5 runs this year
He will go there absent 31 days
Could well be the fittest horse
He has more runs this season
And he has the most recent run
Of possibly all of his opponents
Probably all of his major rivals
Little in this game can surprise
But I am so happy with this bet



PROFILES & PREVIEWS



PLUMPTON 2.15

11/8 Kaloci, 13/8 Harmonise,
12/1 Tierra Verde, 20/1 Chloe's Court,
25/1 Legend Of France
66/1 Atalanta's Gold.

Mares Novice Hurdle over 2m
6 Runners
2 look superior
3 can be involved

On hurdle numbers
KALOCI and HARMONISE stand out
They deserve to be 1st 2nd favourites
But I cxan't bring myself to bet either
HARMONISE is a 4 year old
She is not actually a 4yo until May
She is far younger than her rivals
She has only had 1 hurdle race
She was brought down in that race
And whilst her performance was credible
She has raced just once since October
I can't risk her on that profile
KALOCI Won last time
She is 2 years old as well
Normally I'd be all over her as a bet
But she is a tiny little thing
Give heavy ground I just wont bet her
So I am going for an alternative
The 3rd favourites each way with 2 places
Has work to do on the numbers
But not far enough behind to worry me

Selection

TIERRA VERDE 11/2

Each Way

1/4 Odds 1,2

Personally I'd try and get 9/2 on Betfair
In the each way market
As that gets you 3 places
But not many will get that
So the bet is only 2 places





CATTERICK 3.05

13/8 Red Infantry, 7/4 Sharp Response,
9/2 Golden Investment, 8/1 Allmyown,
12/1 Justforjames.

Novice Handicap Chase over 3m 1f

This stat is interesting

January February March
Since 2000
Novice Handicap Chases
3m 1f or more
Class 3 or lower

There have been 75 of these races
Horses aged 4-5-6-7
Coming from a Novice or Beginners Chase
Have a 0-42 record

That stat lasts 18 years in a 3 month period
SHARP RESPONSE has this 0-42 profile
What stops me getting too excited
Whilst he comes from a Novice Chase
He has run in handicaps before
GOLDEN INVESTMENT fell last time
I fancied him in the Yorkshire National
Although not a classical fit
I would frame a bet around him

Selection

GOLDEN INVESTMENT 7/2

Each Way

1/4 Odds 1,2 places








WOLVERHAMPTON 6.40

7/4 Dubawi Fifty, 7/2 Haines,
4/1 Velvet Revolution, 6/1 Suegioo,
7/1 Sam Missile, 16/1 Gwafa,
33/1 Iniciar.

Class 2 Handicap over 2m

DUBAWI FIFTY has some challenges
He has to step up from 1m 4f to 2 miles
And does that with 1 run since October
Looked at these races January to March
Whilst a small sample size in these months
No horse did that without 3 + recent runs
Throw in topweight and also 41 days off
The general package he offers is weak
The small field does increase his chance
But I don't see a profile I wanted to trust
GWAFA has a similar problem
He steps up 4f with 1 run in months
INICIAR is rejected as an 8yo debutant

VELVET REVOLUTION has a chance
He is very shortlistable on profile
Something surprises me about his sire
Pivotal has sired endless winners
Yet look at his runners over 2 miles or more
When running in Class 3 or higher
You find all 32 of these horses lost
Pivotal has never sired a winner over 2m +
In Class 3 or higher which and surprises me
VELVET REVOLUTION fails this breeding stat

SAM MISSILE has twice ran 2m in this class
Unplaced twice at 25/1 and 33/1
Not convinced he stays this far
But he has 3 runs in 2018
None of the others have more than 1

SUEGGIO is a 9 year old
That age is a problem in Class 2 races
He has not won since 2014 as well
Some of his profile worries me
But he does have a good recent run
This is a small field as well
And he is so well treated these days

HAINES offers some positives
Enough to make him a saver


Selection

£7.50 Win Bet SUEGGIO 6/1

£1.00 Win Bet SAM MISSILE 11/1

£1.50 Win Bet HAINES 6/1








WOLVERHAMPTON 7.10

100/30 Barnsdale, 4/1 Camino, Novabridge,
7/1 Ask The Guru, 8/1 Lambrini Legacy,
14/1 Little Nosegay, 20/1 Fuel Injection,
20/1 Spoken Words, 33/1 Whispering Wolf.

Low Grade 5f Handicap

The Big Gamble horse was Emjayem
But he is now a non runner
That has changed the dynamic

How many of these are actually fit ?

LITTLE NOSEGAY a filly absent 333 days

FUEL INJECTION a 7yo absent 292 days

CAMINO a 5yo mare with 1 run in 179 days

MOSTASHREQAH a mare absent 207 days

WHISPERING WOLF a mare absent 181 days

SPOKEN WORDS looks outclassed


Few of these offer much

NOVABRIDGE is a 10 year old now
Permenantly runs very average numbers

BARNSDALE won last time
Career best Racing Post Rating as well
But before we get too excited
He has raced 30 times before
His Career best rating is only 50
Many of these have beaten that

LAMBRINI LEGACY has a chance
Could have needed her last 2
Her previous 2 runs were over too far
She could easily nick this
Even if her form is tied up with Barnsdale
I liked her on video last time

ASK THE GURU interests me most
He is 8 and has 31 days off
But he doesn't like recent runs

He has a 9-73 career record
His 31 day absence may help

Look at his individual record
ASK THE GURU has a poor 1-30 record
When he runs in the previous 16 days
He stole the only race he won

Since 2015
When running over 5f
Class 5 or lower
Absent over 15 days
But no longer than 35 days
Fields of 11 or fewer

ASK THE GURU has raced 11 times
He Won 6 of those 11 races
So I find him interesting as well


Selection

£4.00 Each Way ASK THE GURU 5/1

£2.00 Win Bet LAMBRINI LEGACY 5/1









FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


Long Range Bet 6

2 x £2.50 Trebles

Wolverhampton 7.10 - Ask The Guru 5/1
Wolverhampton 7.10 - Lambrini Legacy 5/1

Spurs v Juventus (Tomorrow) Under 2.5 Goals 8/13

1000 Guineas - Clemmie 11/4





Champions League

Wednesday Febuary 14th

Real Madrid v Paris St Germain 1st Leg

Score at Half Time

£6 Win 0-0 at 3/1

£2 Win Real Madrid 1-0 at 4/1

£2 Win PSG 1-0 at 4/1


I was on the phone to a good judge
I told him in the Madrid v PSG game
That I really fancied 0-0 at Half time

I could not believe it was a 3/1 chance
This particular game is so important
Neither team dare lose this fixture
I said I was going to go win bet at 3/1
That no team scores before half time

He rightly pointed out to me
After scolding me about Southampton
Most of the players will be world class
They can score from anywhere
Thay can create magic out of thin air
And that is a very good point

I was going 0-0 as a win bet
So I had a rethink instead

If I have 2 saver bets

Madrid 1-0 at Half time

PSG 1-0 at Half Time

Place £6 on 0-0 at either 11/4 or 3/1

I am still getting more than double my money
£10 Stake returns between £22.50 and £24.00
That seems a very fair bet to me
Only 2 ways to lose this bet
Both times have to score within 45 minutes
One team has to score twice in 45 minutes
I think thats unlikely
So odds against feels a good bet





Supreme Novice Hurdle

Kalashnikov

He won Saturdays Betfair Hurdle
He is now a new player in this at 8/1
I can not see him making the staking
Partly snobbery against a smaller stable
But this statistic also worries me

Cheltenham Grade 1 Novice Hurdles
Every and any distance since 1997
There are 94 of these races
Horses from Handicap Hurdles are 1-92
Those aged 4-5-6-7 are 0-85
Those running over 2m 6f and less 0-73
Not easy to step up from a handicap hurdle


Arkle Chase

Saint Calvados

He now has to come into the reckoning
2 easy wins since we last looked at the race
His 3 chase wins were in fields of 4 4 4
He will have a bigger field to overcome
I'd be wary about horses aged 5 like him
They recently lost their age allowance
Few have tried recently because of it
I'd be surprised if I risked a 5 year old



Champion Chase

Altior

He was impressive on Saturday
He is now 8/11 for the Queen Mother
I've been a sceptic in recent weeks
The question that springs to mind
Is Altior likely to repeat that form
Is Altior a candidate for bouncing

Cheltenham Festival Grade 1 Chases
Horses running within 7 weeks
Only 1 run in the previous 5 + months
Have a 1-43 record since 1998
The winner that shows it has been done
Riverside Theatre in the 2012 Ryanair
Given he is the shortest price to try
It is hard to argue this case against him
But with the possibility of the bounce
And the bigger problem of his price
It will be hard to avoid MIN each way
Office firms offer only 3/1 about Min
When a more generous 4.8 on Betfair
I have my doubts that 3/1 will be bigger
If they ran the Champion Chase today
My bet would be £5 each way Min 3/1



RSA Chase

Presenting Percy

What was quite surprising to some people
Presenting Percy's last race was a hurdle
Fair enough he did win that hurdle race
But this is a Rsa Chase
He is sired by a Derby winner
And he comes here from a Chase

Cheltenham Festival since 1997
Every Non Handicap Chase
Horses coming from hurdles are 3-91
It is not the strongest of records

In races of 3m 2f or less they are 1-70
The 3 winners had 10 7 9 Chase runs
Those with under 7 chase runs were 0-60
Presenting Percy fails both those angles
An eyebrow is now raised about his chance


Gold Cup

Native River

He won 12 lengths on Saturday
He is now 6/1 for the Gold Cup
He looked good on his debut
But the doubt is the same as Altior
Will he be able to reproduce that
Or is he likely to bounce

Cheltenham Festival Grade 1 Chases
Horses running within 7 weeks
Only 1 run in the previous 5 + months
Have a 1-43 record since 1998
The winner that shows it has been done
Riverside Theatre in the 2012 Ryanair

I am tempted to say I won't select him
I probably wont given his profile
But safe bets are thin on the ground
When I look at the race nearer the day
I would make sense to be very cautious
Before ruling out any of the outsiders
This might be a year for a 25/1 + winner

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