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First message of the week
Going through to Bank Holiday Monday
Bad weather is predicted at the weekend
The Flat has come and disappeared again
So we have a low key couple of days now
Today's message is just 3 Southwell races
And some 2000g and Grand National views


Account Bet

No Bet Today




Todays Message

3 Southwell races
Not interested in strong bets here
So this is a quiet day

Future Betting Angles
Gives my provisional selection
For the Aintree Grand National
Too early for any outright selection
But I have a horse in pole position

Tomorrow I am doing the same
Giving out my provisional selection
For the 2000 Guineas on May 5th
I feel I have the winner of the race
Deal with that tomorrow

In terms of the Southwell card
Nothing is staked
Nothing is highlighted




Sunday's Summary

No Message yesterday
Just Sundays message to review
Which had an account bet as well
Sunday was a message of 2 parts
The Account bet was very good
Much as it didn't look promising
The rest of it was simply rubbish
SALTONSTALL drifted out badly
He went out to 16/1 and ever 18/1
He was smelling like a non buzzer
I was fearing the worst beforehand
Yet he produced an decent second
He went odds on in running as well
Best odds guaranteed returns 12/1
That managed to double our stake
It was needed given earlier results
Spin aside with a far later message
I would have improved that a little
Picked up on some later gambles
That I might have used as savers
An example of that was Katie Cruel
She was a drifting outsider earlier
Then developed into a big gamble
My main bet Daliyah ran a stinker
Detached from the rest of the field
All my negatives beaten in that race
I'd rescue that race in a late message
The Stealth bet was a staking error
Could have saved that race as well
Rathlin Rose won and badly needed
SALTONSTALL was an important one
The returns salvaged the message
But there were some staking errors
Sending it later would have helped
Just felt a bit too frantic and hyper
I'm unsettled lacking any composure



PROFILES & PREVIEWS



SOUTHWELL 2.00

2/1 Branscombe, 4/1 Monks Stand, 9/2 Crosse Fire,
8/1 Katheefa, 10/1 Gabrial The Devil, Siege Of Boston,
12/1 Space War, 14/1 Run With Pride
25/1 Gleaming Sun.

6f Handicap

These races are very rare
As they involve 3 year olds
Only 9 in March 3 at Southwell

Statistics are vulnerable in this
Not sure how to treat the 3 year olds
Then you have to consider Southwell

I failed Katheefa with an absence
Space War had a weak profile
Run With Pride made no appeal up in trip
Gleaming Sun too inexperienced
Seige Of Boston has never won at 6f
I'd have to shortlist the recent returners

5/2 Branscombe (3yo)
7/2 Monks Stand
9/2 Crosse Fire,
8/1 Gabrial The Devil (3yo)

I'm more drawn to the older horses
CROSSE FIRE is an older horse
MONKS STAND is an older horse
Both won over Course/Distance recently
On last time out Racing Post Ratings
CROSSE FIRE is comfortably clear
Which earns him the vote

Selection

£8 Win Bet CROSSE FIRE 5/2

£2 Win Bet MONKS STAND 4/1





SOUTHWELL 2.30

11/8 Kion, 3/1 Walk On Walter,
4/1 Big Brave Bob, 13/2 Dubai Classic,
10/1 Mother Of Dragons, 33/1 Kindler.

3yo Novice
These races are brand new
Introduced this year

WALK ON WATER has 150 days off
BIG BRAVE BOB HAS 136 days of

KION has 5 days off
MOTHER OF DRAGONS 3 days off

You can see where I am going here
I am drawn to the recent returners

None of the 5 that can win this
Have any experience at this track

Look at recent returners
So far in these new races in 2018

Horses running within 7 days
3 of more career starts
Starting under 40/1
Horses with this profile are 4-8
Those that ran over 6f were 2-2
KION has this profile
MOTHER OF DRAGONS has this profile

The horses with absences
Could easily still be good enough
We can only guess about those
But on this track
I'd rather take the quick returners

Selection

£8 Win Bet KION 7/4

£2 Win Bet MOTHER OF DRAGONS 6/1






SOUTHWELL 5.00

9/2 Lily Ash, 5/1 Romantic, 5/1 Powerful Society,
6/1 Royal Holiday, 6/1 De Little Engine, 7/1 Carlovian,
8/1 Quick Monet, 10/1 Riverside Bridge
16/1 Captain Revelation, 33/1 Rebel Sky

8f Handicap for 0-57 rated horses

Last Time out Racing Post Ratings

POWERFUL SOCIETY has the best figure
His last time out rating was 66
His opposition had the following ratings
50 56 53 44 47 39 35 33 45

POWERFUL SOCIETY has a big edge here
Which puts him right onto the shortlist
The problem is he is a 3 year old
Because of that we are in the dark
Class 6 Handicaps over 8f in March
Only 1 past race pitched 3 year olds
Against the older horses
So we can not know if it's a problem

ROYAL HOLIDAY is 11
I'd want a better last run for his age
REBEL SKY didn't do enough last time

If we look at similar races in March
Horses absent 7 weeks or longer
Aged 8 or more
Return a 0-38 record
ROMANTIC fails this statistic
He is a 9yo absent 73 days
RIVERSIDE BRIDGE has 12 runs
His first 9 were over hurdles
His last 3 were on the flat
His Flat numbers are very low
He needs to find lots of improvement
CARLOVIAN has 166 days absence
Worries me as an exposed 5 year old
Not keen on the sire either
He has never won over this trip
Only ever won in the summer
Just not a convincing risk
QUICK MONET has low numbers
And just 1 run in the last 96 days
LILY ASH is a mare with a long absence

DE LITTLE ENGINE has positives
Such as a recent run 4 days ago
But he is not like a winner
And has never raced here before

CAPTAIN REVELATION is interesting
He changed stables in October 2017
If we go back 5 runs since January 2018
He had a rating of 69 back then
4 of his last 5 races
Were over 9f or more
Good chance he doesn't stay that far
His Numbers hint that could be the case
So if we can excuse 4 of his last 5 runs
He then becomes quite interesting
As his rating has dropped from 69 to 57
And he only faces a 0-55 class field

CAPTAIN REVELATION has another edge
He is the only true Southwell 8f specialist
Half the field have never run here before

No Southwell form

Lily Ash
De Little Engine
Rebel Sky
Carlovian
Romantic

Racing Post Ratings
Southwell only
8f races only

88 Captain Revelation
85 Captain Revelation
85 Captain Revelation
72 Captain Revelation
69 Captain Revelation
68 Captain Revelation
68 Royal Holiday
62 Royal Holiday
61 Powerful Society
60 Royal Holiday
37 Riverside Bridge
35 Royal Holiday
33 Quick Monet
31 Quick Monet
29 Royal Holiday

CAPTAIN REVELATION is miles clear
Not as simple as that though
He has been out of form
On a losing run of 19 races now
He needs this track to set him alight
As it has done in the past
Not convinced enough to trust him
But he has to make the staking plan

Selection

£8 Win Bet POWERFUL SOCIETY 7/2

£2 Win Bet CAPTAIN REVELATION 6/1








FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


Grand National

Provisional 1st Choice

MINELLA ROCCO 16/1

Too early to be making a selection
Minella Rocco is in pole position

If the ground is on the soft side
Then I will probably go cold on him

On Good to soft or faster ground
He looks the most interesting horse

If you bet him now as I've done
You take the risk on the ground

Some will automatically rule him
On the grounds he is topweight
The following statistic since 2010
Shows we can make a case for him

Grand Nationals since 2010

Horses with 11st 5lbs or more
Starting under 50/1
Aged 8-9-10-11
Over 13 career runs
Under 20 Chase runs
Starting under 50/1
Beaten last time
Coming from a Graded race
That was over 3m or more
4 or more runs in the last year

8 horses ran with this profile
3 Won and one came second
These are the 8 runners

2010 Don't Push it 2nd
2011 Tiday Bay UR
2012 Neptune Collonges WON
2015 Lord Windermere PU
2015 Many Clouds WON
2016 Don't Push it WON
2017 Saphir Du Rheu UR
2017 More Of That PU

MINELLA ROCCO is not badly weighted
He may only give 17lbs to the bottomweight
The general consensus about this horse
He is said to be a spring horse
Who wants good ground not soft

Only Twice in his career
Has he raced in the Spring
When the ground was not soft or heavy

2017- 2nd in Cheltenham Gold Cup
2016 - Won the Cheltenham Festival 4 miler

Worth pointing out when he won the 4 miler
He beat Native River into second
Who won this years Gold Cup Form

I'd have liked a few weeks shorter absence
And not to come here after a fall
But he is a very classy well built chaser
He is comfortably the class horse in the race
I'm naturally seduced by the class horses
Which may turn out to be a mistake
But at the moment he is my Number 1
I find it hard to nominate a second choice
As long as the ground is not too soft


Tennis

Roger Federer will not play in France
This represents my French Open Bet

£5 Dominic Tiem 8/1
£4 Rafa Nadal 4/5
£1 Federer (Lost)

The Clay season Starts April 2nd
Both Rafa Nadal and Dominic Tiem
Are booked to play in Monte Carlo
In a Clay court tournament April 16th

Given Federer is not involved
The following staking strategy

50% Stakes Rafa Nadal
50% Stakes Dominic Thirm

May be workable in upcoming Clay events



CLEMMIE

Injury scare a few days ago
Bruised foot treading on a stone
She weakened in the 1000g market
Happy to report she has firmed up a bit
She is between 11/4 and 100/30 Betfair
She is between 2/1 and 3/1 with Firms.

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