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Today's Message


Start of a fresh new week
Will be a wet and cold one
Main target is the Hennessy
But lots of other good races
Like Buveau D'air v Samcro
High class Irish Sunday card


Had the day off yesterday
The main problem this week
Fitting in the Hennessy work
Decided to do that last night
That is now just about done

This free's up space later on
Will improve later messages
The cost of that will be today

I've sacrificed this message
For more important stuff later

Today's cards are pretty grim
Southwell is riding very slow
Covered just 4 races today
Didn't start them till this am

That's why there no bet today
But I can go on a run of messages
Knowing I am ahead of schedule

Tomorrow I'll be going for a bet



Previews

None Today




Sunday's Review

The last message was last Sunday
Had a choice of two possible bets
In the end I went for the Troytown
The split staked bet got no return
Dounikos and Woods Well beaten
Could have gone for the safer bet
Which was Pardon Me 8/1 each way
Who managed to finish in the frame
Not always a straight forward choice
Pardon Me was solid on Betfair 8/1
There had been some early money
Had a strong profile and I liked him
Even though it was a hurdle debut
About 20 mins before message time
He drifted from 8/1 - 14/1 on Betfair
Just as if everyone was in the dark
Connections were asked at 9.30am
Maybe they gave negative feedback
That caused him to start drifting out
Noticed that as it was a 10am send
These things happen quite regularly
I decided not to go with Pardon Me
As he was unproven over hurdles
And he has just drifted out 4-6 pts
He came back in later to around 8/1
He did place but he was well beaten
I just don't believe he was fancied
Thats fine and far from unexpected
Makes finding the right bet harder
These are often not simple choices
Sunday a day that didn't have many



PROFILES & PREVIEWS

Incorporating

Angles @ Observations



Southwell 12.40

9/4 Rare, 11/4 Princess Harley, 5/1 Principia,
6/1 Billy Ruskin, 8/1 Goldfox Girl, Tilsworth Sammy,
16/1 Blazon, 100/1 Dutch Melody,
100/1 Kaala Taara, Newgate Duchess.

12f Maiden

Poor quality race
Looks like any of 5 might win

BLAZON is a 5 year old
May struggle to give 10lbs away
To the 3yo fillies no matter how unsafe

BILLY RUSKIN is rejected as well
The sires runners at 12f and more
Have a very unimpressive 4-172 record
All 4 winners had at least 5 runs
All 4 winners ran within 19 days
Those that did not were 0-77
BILLY RUSKIN satisfies neither angle
Think this is probably a match

PRINCIPIA has a chance
Not expensive and 33/1 last time
Going up in trip over 2 furlongs
Not a negative but only 3rd choice

RARE is interesting
I could oppose her on a few fronts
Downgraded stables from a big yard
No Southwell form either
Expensive type but won't fulfil promise
But she is in good hands
I feel safer with her trainer
Than the trainer of Princess Harley
PRINCESS HARLEY has a sound chance
Racing Post Rating of 73 here 12 days ago
Nothing can offer as much as that
You can argue she is the safer choice
With track form albeit modest form
RARE could be the classier horse
If she handles the slower surface
RARE would be my e/w preference at 5/2

Selection

RARE 5/2

Each Way




Southwell 1.10

7/2 Cupid's Arrow, 6/1 Little Choosey, 7/1 Magical Molly Joe,
8/1 Pindaric, Poppy May, 8/1 Cotton Socks, 8/1 Fly True,
10/1 Yorkshire Pudding, 12/1 Gorgeous General,
20/1 Optimickstickhill, 25/1 Moremoneymoreparty,
25/1 My Girl Maisie, 50/1 Barney Bullet, Evanescent.

6f Handicap

CUPIDS ARROW has positives
He is the only horse in the race
Who has raced 3 times in 4 weeks

His Numbers amongst the best
There were a few I have issues with
Barney Bullet and Evanescent lack class
My Girl Maisie is a filly with an absence
Moremoneymoreparty running low numbers
Optimickstickhill has similar low figures

GORGEOUS GENERAL is underraced
He has just the 1 run in 116 days now
He may need a career best to win this
COTTON SOCKS is inexperienced
Poor numbers and an unsafe draw
LITTLE CHOOSEY is an 8yo mare
She did manage to win last time out
But she has raced just twice in 11 months
She also has to drop from 8f to 6f
No form over this distance since 2015
She has far too many unsafe factors
No 8yo mare has ever won a 6f race
Coming down from 8f since 1997 (0-22)
POPPY MAY is a 4 year old filly
Just 1 run in 54 days and a weak stable
PINDARIC has raced once in 68 days
Drawn 1 just not enough positives

YORKSHIRE PUDDING is a 4yo filly
MAGICAL MOLLY JOE is a 4yo filly
Both have similar complicated profiles
Both smell a little short of runs
YORKSHIRE PUDDING has 5 runs in a year
MAGICAL MOLLY JOE has 4 runs in a year
I wanted more runs for a safer profile
Neither would qualify as negatives
Neither look safe enough as selections
MAGICAL MOLLY JOE has an unsafe sire
Whose Southwell runners are 0-18 so far

Shortlist

FLY TRUE is an exposed 5yo mare
Her last 3 numbers are not good enough
But she does have some decent backclass
She upgraded stables 3 runs ago
Following 144 days off the track
She was entitled to need her last 3 runs
She went off far too fast last time out
I see backclass and some excuses
To compensate for low numbers
FLY TRUE has enough to shortlist
New stable could yet improve her

CUPIDS ARROW has positives
He is the only horse in the race
Who has raced 3 times in 4 weeks

Selection

£9.00 Win Bet CUPIDS ARROW 3/1-100/30

£1.00 Win Bet FLY TRUE 8/1-9/1




Southwell 3.10

15/8 Vow Of Presence, 2/1 Mametz Wood, 5/1 Love Rat,
6/1 Space Bandit, 20/1 Queen Tomyris, 25/1 Marie Toulouse,
33/1 Invisible Shadow, Zahraani, 40/1 Yuppy Love.

8f Maiden

VOW OF PRESENCE is favourite
Decent stable and has a reputation
No surprise if he were to win this
But he is going to have to stay 8f
He is sired by Showcasing
Who has a stamina index of 6.8f
He is unraced sired by Showcasing
Unraced horses by this sire
Running over 8f or more
Have a 0-16 record so far
VOW OF PRESENCE fails this angle
Not safe enough with the breeding doubt

The problem is his 3 alternatives
They all have something against then
LOVE RAT has 194 days off the track
Following 2 very poor runs
MAMETZ has the form to win this
But last time out was his worst ever run
SPACE BANDIT also well beaten last time
That defeat maybe better than it looked
As a long odds on favourite won 10 lengths
This requires a guess
But he hasn't done much wrong

Selection

Small Stakes

SPACE BANDIT 3/1-7/2

Each Way





Sedgefield 3.20

6/4 Court Jurado, 13/8 Speedy Cargo,
7/2 Mance Rayder, 14/1 Bolton Boy,
20/1 Shotgun Sally.

2m 4f Maiden hurdle

This requires a guess
COURT JURADO is an unraced 4yo
Some do win similar races
I'd rather take the experienced horses
But I can't rule Court Jurado out
I am playing it this way

£8 Win Bet SPEEDY CARGO 13/8
£2 Win Bet MANCE RAYDER 7/2







FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


FOOTBALL

Plenty going on tonight
Salford at home to Hartlepool
We could really do with a win
Leyton Orient are 3pts clear
They have a far easier game


Champions League returns
Top goalscorer bet is in play

£3 e/w Robert Lewandoski 9/1
£2 e/w Karim Benzema 33/1

Both their teams play tonight
Hoping they can both score
Atletico Madrid play tomorrow




DARTS

PDC World Championships

Alexandra Palace

December 13th - January 1st 2019

£6.25 Win Bet Gary Anderson 7/2- 4/1
£3.75 Win Bet Michael van Gerwen 6/4

Last weeks template got no return
As a 20/1 outsider won this event
Despite that I feel it did it's job well
So I am now ready to have my bet

Gary Anderson was my best result
Van Gerwin beat him in the semis
We just got done by the draw there
That will not happen in the big one
The World Championships at Xmas

Michael Van Gerwin lost in the final
Once again beaten at long odds on
One of the positives I take from it
It has cured me of a problem I had
An addiction to betting Van Gerwin
I'm totally cured of that illness now
He's still the best player out there
But I no longer have to rely on him
He must be in some mental turmoil
We can have him onside as a saver

PDC World Championships

Alexandra Palace

December 13th - January 1st 2019

6/4 Michael van Gerwen 4/1 Gary Anderson
20/1 Peter Wright 20/1 Rob Cross 20/1 Michael Smith
33/1 James Wade 33/1 Gerwyn Price 33/1 M.Suljovic

This is the big one

None of the other events matter
The Template got some practice
The Cream rises to the top here

Michael van Gerwen is the saver
Gary Anderson must be the main bet
I believe he will win the World Title
This is the one event he cares about
He will now be locked away in practice
He will smell blood after recent results
Knowing how fragile Van Gerwin is now
No need for a second saver in this one
It is 20/1 bar these two superior players
This is going to be a strong bet for me

Accounting for the £4 Van Gerwin saver
We're betting Gary Anderson at 7/4- 2/1
No risk of losing should Van Gerwin win

Final Selection

£6.25 Win Bet Gary Anderson 7/2- 4/1

£3.75 Win Bet Michael van Gerwen 6/4





Ladbrokes Trophy Update


Hennessy Gold Cup

Newbury December 1st

6/1 Elegant Escape 6/1 Thomas Patrick 6/1 Kemboy
7/1 Ms Parfois 12/1 Al Boum Photo 12/1 Dingo Dollar
14/1 Up For Review 14/1 Isleofhopendreams
14/1 Rathvinden 16/1 The Young Master 20/1 Black Corton
16/1 Total Recall 20/1 Don Poli 20/1 Invitation Only
20/1 American 20/1 Total Recall 20/1 Sizing Tennessee
25/1 West Approach 33/1 Flying Angel 33/1 Otago Trail
33/1 Monbeg Notorious 33/1 Go Conquer
33/1 Allysson Monterg 33/1 Beware The Bear

23 runners still in the race

Somebody sent me a tip for the race
They fancy Rathvinden 20/1 and 25/1
Looks like the horse is going to run
Willie Mullins could still re-route him

My First impression was negative
To ignore the tip as he is a 10 year old
No 10yo won since Diamond Edge 1981
But on reflection this may be misleading

Rathvinden only has 12 Chase runs
So he not as exposed as most his age
He did not start racing till he was a 5yo
March 2014 (Aged 6) he had a big injury
He had 1000 days off the track
He never raced when he was a 7yo
He only raced the once as an 8yo
So this is not your typical 10 year old
At last years Cheltenham Festival
Rathvinden won the 4m National Hunt Chase
So he is clearly a high class chaser

If I look at this race since 1997
Look at 10 year olds that took part
With under 14 chase runs like Rathvinden
There were not many that tried
Only 6 ran in the race starting under 20/1
Rathvinden does need to be considered
I wouldn't rule him out on his age alone

Maybe it is not Age that matters
But their number of Chase runs
How exposed over fences they are
What improvement they may have

We had a 5yo on Sunday
Winning the Troytown Chase
Not the age that I would have chosen
But he was another unexposed chaser

These days more and more
High Class Handicap Chases
Rarely go to horses with over 14 Chase runs

Graded Handicap Chases
Run since January 2017
Over 12 runners in the race
34 races in the last 2 seasons

Horses with <15 Chase runs
Won 28 of the 34 races

Horses with <17 Chase runs
Won 30 of the 34 races

Only 4 horses have won in 2 years
With over 16 previous Chase runs

Ultragold - Aintree Topham Chase on Heavy
Raz De Maree - Welsh National on Heavy
Ultragold - Aintree won the Topham again
Splash Of Ginge - Paddy Power on Heavy

This all makes perfect sense
2 of the 4 exposed winners ran at Aintree
Both wins on the Grand National course
3 of the 4 winners raced on Heavy Ground

All 4 of these "rare" winners
Won gruelling races mostly on heavy
Or on very demanding courses
Where the unexposed horses
Probably could not cope as well as them

Take these 4 examples out
No other Graded Handicap Chase
In the last 2 years went to any horse
Who was exposed over fence
Rathvinden 20/1 is not exposed
He remains of interest on Saturday
But this is not my final selection

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