8 Previews
1 Account Bet

Some lower grade fixtures today
Cards unbecoming of a Saturday
Feels more like a typical Thursday
At the end of the day it is what it is
And the next two weekend cards
English & Scottish Grand nationals

Back on the main account today
Win bet & saver in a Handicap Chase
Not our normal modus operandi




Account Bet

Uttoxeter 4.50

£7.50 Win Bet BIG MEADOW 3/1

£2.50 Win Bet LUNAR FLOW 7/2


Big Meadow 100/30 Bet365 Skybet Unibet
Big Meadow 3/1 Generally
Lunar Flow 7/2 Bet365 Ladbrokes Corals Boyles
Lunar Flow 100/30 Generally





Message Bets

Kelso 5.20

£6 Win Bet NINE ALTERS 10/1

£4 Win Bet LEAVETHELIGHTON 11/2




Today's Message

When I do a Saturday message
I type the previews as I go along
Just to save time and get it all in

Sometimes I regret certain previews
Realise I shouldn't have done them
And downplay them as lower strength

But the previews that I feel are good
Invariably get highlighted as worthwhile
Today's these races made me feel that


Uttoxeter 4.50

£7.50 Win Bet BIG MEADOW 3/1

£2.50 Win Bet LUNAR FLOW 7/2

Big Meadow is the class horse
I like him more than the market
Nothing to worry about here
But others seem to more popular
The danger is one returning to form
That can not be spotted easily
Big Meadow could outclass these
Lunar FLow is a saver
We have the only horses in the race
With winning 3m heavy ground course form
With the saver we get 2/1 Big Meadow
With our stakes back on the saver



Navan 5.05

£6.50 Win TAGLE 7/1
£3.50 Win DEFINITE DOYENNE 2/1

Trust Joseph
I usually trust young Mr O'Brien
But can I trust his horse Tagle
And trust his stamina on soft ground
Perhaps not as much as I would like
That has turned a Tagle 7/1 each way
Into a Tagle win and saver split stake



Kelso 5.20

£6 Win Bet NINE ALTERS 10/1
£4 Win Bet LEAVETHELIGHTON 11/2

Fascinating small field Hunter Chase
6/5 Cultram Abbey 7/4 Duhallow Tornado,
6/1 Leavethelighton 10/1 Nine Altars

The market suggests a match
The class horse Cultram Abbey
Taking on improver Duhallow Tornado
But I am going for the two outsiders
This one is down to my breeding stats
They get the credit or the blame here !
They are adamant this pair are safer !!





PROFILES & PREVIEWS


NAVAN 2.10

9/4 Hawaam, 100/30 Pretty Boy Floyd, 5/1 Crown Leah,
11/2 King Of Leinster, 10/1 Callanach, Rego Park Lady,
12/1 Very Smart, 14/1 Urban Beat, 14/1 Vocal Relation,
66/1 Simbas Song.

5f Maiden for older horses
48 similar races at this time of year

CALLANACH drops from 8f
Easy to ignore with a run just 13 days ago
KING OF LEINSTER drops from 7f to 5f
Not easy to like just 7 days after a 7f race
When also well beaten that day
Has the toughest draw as well
VOCAL RELATION is unraced
The only unraced horse unlikely to win
VERY SMART has 2 unfancied runs
Too far behind on the numbers

HAWAAM is sired by Swiss Spirit
CROWN LEAH is sired by Swiss Spirit

Both horses from this sire
Could be significant on the ground
Horses sired by Swiss Spirit
Running on soft or heavy ground
Have a 0-23 record so far
The sire was a fast ground horse as well
HAWAAM has a long absence to overcome

CROWN LEAH ran 13 days ago
He was beaten over 11 lengths that day
48 similar races at this time of year
Horses running within the last 2 weeks
Beaten over 4 lengths in that race
Return a 0-56 record
CROWN LEAH has this 0-56 profile
REGO PARK LADY ran 13 days ago
Beaten 9 lengths he fails the 0-56 statistic
His numbers are not good enough

URBAN BEAT- 1 run last year
Statistically can not rule him out

PRETTY BOY FLOYD has 7 runs
He has the most experience
His profile is acceptable
I made him a saver last time out
Ran well for a long way over 6f
Could get some of these in trouble

Selection

PRETTY BOY FLOYD 5/2

Win Bet

I wouldn't put anyone off
Going for an Each Way bet
If I staked him as a bet
I would have gone each way
Comes down to personal preference





UTTOXETER 2.30

2/1 Secret Legacy, 7/2 Hurricane Dylan,
5/1 Always On The Ball, 7/1 Emerald Chieftan,
8/1 Scottshill, 14/1 Hangard, My Liege,
20/1 Larch Hill, 25/1 Lookforarainbow,
33/1 Powerstown Park.

Maiden Hurdle over 2m 4f

Some of these look questionable

EMERALD CHIEFTAN is an 8yo
He has raced just once under rules
That was only 15 days ago as well
That is far too radical a profile
ALWAYS ON THE BALL is unraced
Occasionally his type do win these races
But they are generally opposable
SCOTTSHILL comes from a bumper
Ho hurdle form and no recent run
He can not be a negative with his profile
But obvious question marks against him

The best hurdling form in the race
Belongs to two horses
SECRET LEGACY has 4 hurdle starts
HURRICANE DYLAN has 2 hurdle starts

SECRET LEGACY is clearly a possible winner
But something bothers me about him
He flopped on his hurdling debut
After just that one hurdle run
Gordon Elliot quickly got rid of him
He did not want to keep the horse
And he downgraded stables
With this in mind and the frame of the race
HURRICANE DYLAN each way looked best

Selection

HURRICANE DYLAN 100/30

Each Way




KEMPTON 2.40

3/1 Tropics, 4/1 Mazzini, 5/1 Boundsy,
5/1 Raven's Lady, 6/1 Raucous, 10/1 Swift Approval,
12/1 Hammer Gun, 14/1 Pipers Note.

Class 2 handicap over 6f
March and April have 67 similar races

Horses aged 8 or more
Are best avoided without recent runs
In all similar handicaps over 5f 6f 7f
Horses aged 8 or more
Absent more than 55 days
Have a 0-57 record
PIPERS NOTE shares this 0-57 profile

TROPICS is a 10 year old
There were a couple of 10yo winners
None though that came from a 5f race
This is an interesting Generic angle

Class 2 Handicaps over 6f
Both on turf and the sand
Any and every month of the year
Horses aged 8 or more
Coming from 5f races
Return a 0-175 record since 2005
All 175 trying the same thing were beaten
TROPICS fails this 0-175 profile

If we include Class 3 races as well
No horse aged 10 or more has won one
When coming from a 5f race (0-48)
And no horse aged 8 or more
Has won a 6f Handicap in Class 2 or 3
Coming from 5f without a run in 15 days
TROPICS has big statistical questions

MAZZINI is a 5yo absent 129 days
Horses aged 5 absent over 3 months
Had a modest 4-67 record
Since 2011 the record was 0-46
No 5yo with an absence has won one
In the last 7 years with a 3 month absence
MAZZINI has won 3 races in lower Grade
He has done that off marks of 75 84 and 90
He now faces a handicap mark of 98
In a Grade he has yet to win in (0-7)
When all his wins came in July onwards

RAUCOUS is a 5yo absent 175 days
Horses aged 5 absent over 3 months
Had a modest 4-67 record
Since 2011 the record was 0-46
RAUCOUS has never won a handicap
His 3 wins came in tiny fields of 6 4 2
It would bother me he has downgraded yards
W Haggas and Highclere thoroughbreds
Sold him to Robert Cowell

BOUNDSY is a 4yo seasonal debutant
Some 4yo's do win these races on debut
But they all had under 13 career starts
BOUNDSY now has 17 lifetime runs
Horses aged 4
13 or more runs
Absent more than 62 days
Have a 0-22 record in these races

Shortlist

RAVENS LADY is a 4yo filly
Only 2 fillies aged 4 have won
They had 10-12 runs and an absence
RAVENS LADY fits that profile well
She can not be a negative
But she has never won in this class
Or from a rating as high as today's
His trainer is also quite hard to read

HAMMER GUN has proven fitness
The joint most runs this year
The 2nd shortest absence as well
If I look at 5 year olds
Coming from a recent 7f race
I find an acceptable 1-10 record
That horse did not win last time
HAMMER GUN did and was different
I'd see him as a neutral-positive
His best numbers are admittedly over 7f
But his best 2 career Racing Post Ratings
Have come in his previous 2 races
So he has had 2 career bests in a row

SWIFT APPROVAL has proven fitness
The joint most runs this year
The shortest absence as well
He also drops from a 6f race
I'd also see him as a neutral-positive

Selection

£4 Win Bet HAMMER GUN 14/1

£4 Win Bet SWIFT APPROVAL 8/1

£2 Win Bet RAVENS LADY 5/1






NAVAN 2.45

7/2 Court Queen, 5/1 Dandyman Port,
5/1 Rantan, 13/2 Art Of Unity, 7/1 Captain Dion,
7/1 Bluesbreaker, 8/1 Aspen Belle, 10/1 Sors,
12/1 My Silver Nails, 14/1 Zeb City.

5f Handicap

3 year olds meet older horses
I am against the 3 year olds here
None have safe enough profiles

MR SILVER NAILS is a 3yo filly
She is rejected first time out
ACT OF UNITY is a 3yo first time out
May lack the class off bottomweight
ZEB CITY is the other 3yo
Just 1 run this year beaten in a maiden
He does not offer enough

Fillies Aged 4 do win first time out
But very few manage it on soft/heavy ground
COURT QUEEN has this problem
DANDYMAN PORT has the same problem
She is a 4yo filly first time out on bad ground
ASPEN BELLE is a mare first time out
I'd rather have recent runs on this ground

SORS has 1 run this season
Beaten 9 lengths in that race
He is the class horse
Would have liked a better last run
RANTAN also has 1 run this year

There are 2 with several more runs
BLUESBREAKER has 7 runs in 2018
CAPTION DION has 5 runs in 2018
All their rivals have either none or just 1
They were 3rd/4th in the same race last time
Finished just where they should have

Selection

£4 Each Way BLUESBREAKER 13/2

£2 Win Bet CAPTION DION 7/1







KEMPTON 3.15

5/2 Smart Call, 4/1 La Figlia, 5/1 Hunaina,
6/1 Shenanigans, 10/1 Carolinae, 12/1 Paco's Angel,
14/1 Lucymai, Soul Silver, 16/1 Summer Icon,
20/1 Peak Princess.

Listed race for fillies over 8f
There are 14 past renewals

All 14 winners of this race
Were 4 or 5 year olds
Having had 4-19 career starts

Past winners had the following runs
6 10 13 5 19 10 11 10 8 15 15 14 4 8
The most exposed winner had 19 runs
All 21 horses with more runs lost
SUMMER ICON could be too exposed
CAROLINEA has the same problem
She is also a 6 year old
In a race thats always gone to 4-5yo's

SMART CALL is also a 6 year old
Powerful connections and top rated
But she is older than all past winners
And this could be used as a prep run
On the way to Royal Ascot again

All 14 winners had at least 4 runs
LA FIGLIA only has 2 career starts
She does look on the experienced side

Horses that raced over 7f last time
Won just 2 of the 14 renewals
None aged 5 or more managed this
LUCYMAI has this problem up in trip
Not keen on his as a 5yo from a small yard
SOUL SILVER is a 4yo up in distance
She has work to do on the numbers
And is not safe on Breeding statistics
PEAK PRINCESS is the lowest rated

HUNAINA is shortlistable

10 of the 14 past winners
Were 4yo Seasonal debutants
They had 10 6 8 12 10 9 7 13 4 6 runs

SHENANIGANS fits this profile
PACO'S ANGEL also fits it as well
Much as she has the longest absence

Selection

HUNAINA 5/1

Each Way




UTTOXETER 4.50

3/1 Big Meadow, Clondaw Rigger,
7/2 Newberry New, 4/1 Lunar Flow,
6/1 Saint John Henry, 10/1 Katenko.

3m Handicap Chase
Not in my comfort zone here
NEWBERRY NEW has a lot to prove
On Heavy ground over 3 miles
Do we really want a horse sired by Kodiac
Kodia has bred a good ground 2m 6f winner
But when the ground was softer than good
His runners over 2m 5f and more are 0-17
Looks a potential non stayer to me
KATENKO looks unfit as a 12yo
With just 1 run in 13 months

CLONDAW RIGGER has a chance
But he is a cheap racing club owned horse
Who has not achieved as much as others
He is the worst horse in the race getting weight
I wasn't drawn much to him
SAINT JOHN HENRY is out of form
Pulled up in all of his last 3 races
Hard to make a strong case for him
And he is only a small horse as well

LUNAR FLOW flopped last time
He could bounce back and be a threat

BIG MEADOW looked more interesting

BIG MEADOW is topweight rated 117
He only faces a 0-116 class field
Last time out he was 3rd of 5
That was heavy ground at this track
Look at the Ratings of his 4 opponents
They were rated 120 143 134 139
This 0-116 class race is a lot easier
BIG MEADOW has a nice drop in class
And a heavy ground course/distance win

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet BIG MEADOW 3/1

£2.50 Win Bet LUNAR FLOW 7/2





NAVAN 5.05

5/2 Definite Doyenne, 6/1 Eos, 6/1 Rince Deireanach,
6/1 Tagle, 8/1 Remmy D, 10/1 Art Of America, Magic Sea,
12/1 Mojambo, 20/1 Charmed Pearl, 20/1 For Pleasure,
33/1 Shes Queen, Wichita Line, Windsor Diamond.

3yo Handicap over 10f

TAGLE is Joseph O'Brien
He has the most recent runs

Number of runs in 2018

6 Tagle
3 Definite Doyenne
2 Charmed Pearl
2 Windsor Diamond.

All other horses
Have either None or just 1 run in 2018

This allows me to use my catchphrase

"Trust Joseph"

TAGLE does bring positives here

If you look at some of the opposition
ART OF AMERICA is drawn 1

10f Navan Handicaps
With 8 or more runners
Since 2011
Horses drawn 1 are 0-50
ART OF AMERICA is not well drawn
He lacks any runs this season as well

RINCE DEIRENANCH could bounce
His seasonal debut was just 7 days ago
I looked at similar 9f-10f handicaps
Horses with 5 or more runs
Having 1 run this season
Running within 21 days
Return a 0-38 record
Many of them will be down to bouncing
RINCE DEIRENANCH fails this 0-38 angle
MOJAMBO fails the same statistic

FOR PLEASURE was hammered 7 days ago
I would see him as a doubtful stayer
WINDSOR DIAMOND didn't do enough last time
WICHITA LINE didn't do enough last time
CHARMED PEARL looks very beatable

EOS is trained by Joseph O'Brien
Filly first time out
She is weak in the market
She is not certain to stay this far
REMMY D is also Joseph O'Brien
Unsafe coming from a 7f race
Hasn't really shown enough

SHE'S QUEEN looks beatable

MAGIC SEA has a chance
But he is topweight first time out
His trainer has a 12-314 career record
Thats a strike rate of just 3.82%
The stables trained just one 3yo winner (1-54)
Trainers runners absent more than 6 weeks
Return only a 1-97 record
That sole winner was back in 2010 in lower grade
Hardly a ringing endorsement of his chance

DEFINITE DOYENNE won 7 days ago
Hard to read her profile
As a lightly raced filly up in trip
Who won as a 20/1 outsider last week
I have to make her a positive
She was impressive last week

Torn about how to stake this

TAGLE 7/1 Each Way is an option
But given he is not proven stamina wise
I am split staking this race

Selection

£6.50 Win TAGLE 7/1

£3.50 Win DEFINITE DOYENNE 2/1





KELSO 5.20

6/5 Cultram Abbey, 7/4 Duhallow Tornado,
4/1 Leavethelighton, 10/1 Nine Altars,

3m 2f Hunter Chase

CULTRAM ABBEY is 11
He is a former very smart horse

DUHALLOW TORNADO is a 6yo
Who won his only chase under rules

Here is my problem
Go back to 2011
On The Fringe a future Champion Hunter
Won a race at Leopardstown February 2011
He was the last 6 year old
To win a Hunter Chase over 3m +
Having had just 1 Chase start under rules
DUHALLOW TORNADO is trying to do the same
That's why I am struggling to commit to him
I love the idea of the improving 6 year old
But this is 3m 2f on heavy ground
With just 1 chase runs there are doubts

CULTRAM ABBEY with so much backclass
Could be the sensible alternative
But we can not be sure he will stay
His sires runners over 3m 1f + are 1-29
When softer than good
The sires runners beyond 3m are 0-19
He has placed over 3m 2f though
This is a small field Hunter Chase as well
So I can not be too demanding with stats

NINE ALTERS must have a chance
He is unexposed over 3m and more
About time he raced more over this trip

I want to risk the 3rd/4th favourites
If I run some breeding stats

Sires in this race
Their runners over 3m 2f +
On ground softer than good

Cultram Abbey's sire is 0-15

Duhallow Tornado's sire is 0-7

Leavethelighton's sire is 26-297

Nine Altars sire is 10-52

This interesting
It is also factual accurate
Whether it matters or not I don't know
But I think we should take a chance
On the bigger prices lower profile types

Selection

£6 Win Bet NINE ALTERS 10/1

£4 Win Bet LEAVETHELIGHTON 11/2

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